Forecast for the winter of 2012 - 2013

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:53 PM GMT on October 18, 2012

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Expect increased chances of a warmer than average winter across most of the western U.S., and a cooler than average winter across much of Florida, said NOAA in their annual Winter Outlook, released on October 18. The forecast also called for increased chances of a wetter than average winter along the Gulf Coast, and drier than average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Upper Midwest. This year's forecast was more difficult than usual to make, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, due to the uncertainty about what El Niño may do. El Niño strongly impacts winter weather patterns, by altering the path of the jet stream and the associated winter storms that travel along the axis of the jet stream. We currently have neutral El Niño conditions over the tropical Pacific ocean, which means that ocean temperatures are near average along the Equator from the coast of South America to the Date Line. But from early July to mid-September, a borderline weak El Niño event appeared to be consolidating, and most of the El Niño computer models were calling for a full-fledged El Niño event to be in place by winter. That is now seriously in question, as we've had four straight weeks with neutral conditions. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center has dropped their odds of a winter El Niño event to 55%. El Niño events typically cause cooler and wetter winter conditions across the Southern U.S., and warmer than average conditions across much of the Northern U.S.



Figure 1. Forecast temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) for the U.S. for the upcoming winter, as predicted in the NOAA Winter Outlook, released on October 18.

What will the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation do?
While El Niño is usually a key factor controlling winter weather patterns, it is often overshadowed by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)--a climate pattern in the North Atlantic Ocean of fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. The NAO controls the strength and direction of westerly winds and storm tracks across the North Atlantic. A large difference in the pressure between Iceland and the Azores (positive NAO) leads to increased westerly winds and mild and wet winters in Europe. Positive NAO conditions also cause the Icelandic Low to draw a stronger south-westerly flow of air over eastern North America, preventing Arctic air from plunging southward. In contrast, if the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), westerly winds are suppressed, allowing Arctic air to spill southwards into eastern North America and Europe more readily. This pattern is kind of like leaving the refrigerator door ajar--the Arctic refrigerator warms up, but all the cold air spills out into the house where people live. The NAO is a close cousin of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and can be thought of as the North Atlantic component of the larger-scale Arctic Oscillation. Since the AO is a larger-scale pattern, scientists refer to the AO instead of the NAO when discussing large-scale winter circulation patterns. The winter of 2009 - 2010 had the most extremely negative NAO pattern (and AO pattern) since record keeping began in 1950. Vicious "Snowmageddon" winter storms occurred in both the U.K. and the United States that winter, as both Europe and North America suffered though an unusually cold and snowy winter (the NAO index was -1.67, beating the previous record of -1.47 set in the winter of 1962 - 1963.) Thus, the phase and strength of the AO/NAO pattern is a key factor controlling winter weather. Unfortunately, this pattern is not predictable more than about two weeks in advance, and thus was not considered by NOAA in their forecast for the upcoming winter.


Figure 2. The forecast for the winter of 2011 - 2012 released October 20, 2011 by NOAA called for a classic La Niña weather pattern over the U.S.--increased chances of warmer and drier weather over the Southern U.S., and cooler and wetter over the northern tier of states (top panels.) Nearly the entire nation ended up having a warmer than average winter, with the winter of 2011 - 2012 ranking as the 4th warmest winter on record. While the Southeast U.S. did see a very dry winter, as is typical in a La Niña year, Texas had an unusually wet winter. Part of the reason for the very mild winter was because the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), averaged over the winter, reached its most extreme positive value (+1.37) since record keeping began in 1950 (previous record: +1.36 during the winter of 1994 - 1995.)

Winter weather and the sunspot cycle
Another major influence on the AO and winter circulation patterns may be the 11-year solar cycle. Recent satellite measurements of ultraviolet light changes due to the 11-year sunspot cycle show that these variations are larger than was previously thought, and may have major impacts on winter circulation patterns. A climate model study published in Nature Geosciences by Ineson et al. (2011) concluded that during the minimum of the 11-year sunspot cycle, the sharp drop in UV light can drive a strongly negative AO pattern, resulting in "cold winters in northern Europe and the United States, and mild winters over southern Europe and Canada, with little direct change in globally averaged temperature." The winters of 2009 - 2010 and 2010 - 2011 both occurred during a minimum in the 11-year sunspot cycle and fit this pattern, with strongly negative AO conditions leading to cold and snowy winters in northern Europe and the Eastern U.S. There was more solar activity during the winter of 2011 - 2012, which may have contributed to the fact that AO conditions reversed, ending up positive. The coming winter of 2012 - 2013 will have even more solar activity than last winter (Figure 3), potentially increasing the odds of a warm, positive-AO winter in northern Europe and the United States.


Figure 3. The number of sunspots from 2000 - 2012 shows that solar minimum occurred during the winter of 2008 - 2009, and that solar activity is now approaching a peak, expected to arrive sometime in 2013. Image credit: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

How will Arctic sea ice loss affect the winter?
Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), allowing cold air to spill out of the Arctic and into Europe and the Eastern U.S. Thus, summers with high Arctic sea ice loss may increase the odds of cold, snowy winters in Europe and the Eastern U.S. In my April 2, 2012 blog post, Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns, I discuss three additional research papers published in 2012 that argue for a major impact of Arctic sea ice loss on Northern Hemisphere weather in fall and winter, with sea ice loss causing an increase in the probability of negative-AO winters. But cold air may also be more likely to spill out of the Arctic in winter due to the decades-long pattern of warming and cooling of Atlantic Ocean waters known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). A 2012 study by NASA scientists found that the warm phase of the AMO (like we have been in since 1995) causes more instances of atmospheric blocking, where the jet stream gets "stuck" in place, leading to long periods of extreme weather. It will be interesting to see how all these factors play out in the coming years. If these three newly-published studies are correct, the U.S. should see an increase in cold, snowy winters like 2010 - 2011 and 2009 - 2010 in coming decades, as Arctic sea ice continues to melt, affecting fall and winter atmospheric circulation patterns more strongly.

What happened during past winters with similar atmospheric conditions?
During a press conference today, Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, was asked to compare weather conditions this fall to those observed in previous years. The idea is that by looking at previous "analogue" years with similar progressions of the El Niño pattern, one might anticipate what the winter climate might be like. Halpert emphasized that this year is totally unique in the 63 years we've been keeping statistics on El Niño. Never before has an El Niño event begun to form in July and August, then quit in mid-September. Even if we did have a few analogue years, it wouldn't do any good, though--Halpert stated that we would need a data base of at least 1,000 years of historical data to make a skillful winter forecast based on analogue years.

Summary
I'm often asked by friends and neighbors what my forecast for the coming winter is, but I tell them to flip a coin, or catch some woolley bear caterpillars for me so I can count their stripes and make a woolley bear winter forecast (this year's Woolley Worm Festival in Banner Elk, North Carolina is this weekend, so we'll know then what the official Woolley Worm winter forecast is.) Making an accurate winter forecast is very difficult, as the interplay between El Niño, the AO/NAO, the AMO, Arctic sea ice loss, and the 11-year sunspot cycle is complex and poorly understood. I've learned to expect the unexpected and unprecedented from our weather over the past few winters; perhaps the most unexpected thing would be a very average winter during 2012 - 2013.

References
Francis, J. A., W. Chan, D. J. Leathers, J. R. Miller, and D. E. Veron, 2009: Winter northern hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07503, doi:10.1029/2009GL037274.

Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane, 2009: Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079.

Ineson, S., et al., 2011, Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere, Nature Geoscience (2011) doi:10.1038/ngeo1282

Overland, J. E., and M. Wang, 2010: Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 1.9.

Petoukhov, V., and V. Semenov, 2010: A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., ISSN 0148-0227.

Seager, R., Y. Kushnir, J. Nakamura, M. Ting, and N. Naik (2010), Northern Hemisphere winter snow anomalies: ENSO, NAO and the winter of 2009/10, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L14703, doi:10.1029/2010GL043830.

Quiet in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center get a rare break today, as there are no tropical cyclones or threat areas in either the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific to discuss. Most of the models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Central Caribbean Sea south of Jamaica by the end of next week. Residents of Central America, Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, and the Cayman Islands should anticipate the possibility of a multi-day period of very heavy rains affecting them late next week.

I'll have a new post on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Good morning. Here is the discussion by the San Juan NWS of the Caribbean development.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A BROAD SFC LOW PRES WILL FORM AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE GETTING PICKED UP EVENTUALLY BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN GMEX. MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES THIS LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEXT
FRI AND MOVE INTO THE SW ATLC NEXT SAT. SRLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE STORM WILL ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE QUICKLY INTO OUR AREA WITH
THE 00Z ECMWF BEING FASTER THAN THE 00Z GFS BY 24 HRS. A MULTI-DAY
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SIG RAINFALL TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER A 2-4 DAY
PERIOD ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF UPSLOPE FLOW. WHILE IT APPEARS
HISPANIOLA WILL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM IT
IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH CERTAINTY THE DEGREE OF IMPACT OVR
PR AS BEST INFLOW WILL BE FOCUSED JUST WEST OF OUR AREA AND HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE FALLING OVR A 2-4 DAY PERIOD. FOR NOW JUST RAISED THE
SKY CVR GRIDS AS IT APPEARS DENSE HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM NEWD AND
REMAIN WITH US FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14894
291. beell
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
I'm back...I see largo was tracking the potential tornado in our area a few hrs ago. The tornadic cell was tracking in this direction but faded away. But other areas got hit pretty good! Truly this stuff was unexpected.


Truly, not totally unexpected :)


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2012

...DEEP SOUTH TX...
THE 12Z BRO SOUNDING REVEALED THE PRESENCE OF A SHALLOW BUT VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S. DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG. WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE...THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING
SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS MAY FOSTER ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. A PRONOUNCED INVERSION NOTED BELOW 500 MB IN THE BRO
UPPER-AIR OBSERVATION AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW
TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS WILL MODULATE STORM
INTENSITY/LONGEVITY. STILL...SOME HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE MOST INTENSE STORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT THU OCT 18 2012

...DEEP SOUTH TX...
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 90S THIS
AFTERNOON OVER DEEP SOUTH TX. THIS HEATING WILL AID IN ERODING A
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION OBSERVED IN THE 12Z BRO RAOB. IN
ADDITION...DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S LOCATED ALONG AND S OF A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THIS AIRMASS COMBINED WITH A CONVERGENT SURFACE FLOW
REGIME...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY WILL AID IN AN
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
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Good morning/Evening all. It's 51 degrees, but when I opened the door to let the dogs out, it felt colder.
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:
I have only one more comment to make.

I have no idea if these bloggers are male, female, single, married or what, but I was just thinking if mitthbevnuruodo and nrtiwlnvragn got together and had children, what would they name the kids?


LOL my username is a take on a Star Wars character actually, cause yes, I really am that much of a geek LOL even more so I suppose as is a character only found in the SW books :P
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GFS at 7-days..just something to watch.............
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7-Day for the Tampa Bay area............
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Quoting STXHurricanes2012:
I'm back...I see largo was tracking the potential tornado in our area a few hrs ago. The tornadic cell was tracking in this direction but faded away. But other areas got hit pretty good! Truly this stuff was unexpected.
..good morning,wow that was a bad storm yesterday in south texas..sure was a strange one..sinking southward..hope no injuries with those tornado's.
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I'm back...I see largo was tracking the potential tornado in our area a few hrs ago. The tornadic cell was tracking in this direction but faded away. But other areas got hit pretty good! Truly this stuff was unexpected.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Hi everyone...

any chances for this one



I also saw the NWS puts the NE US at near normal...which is in a big contrast to a "snow-dump" accuweather call for...




plzs read back on 92C has it been said many of times
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I noticed a 92C area of invest. Isn't it too close to the equator to have any spin?
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Quoting popartpete:



The day prior, it had been sunny and 80 degrees. Suddenly, the derecho hit. We had almost no warning, only just an hour or two before it hit, and even so, we weren't expecting a hurricane, which is was what it was like. I would estimate it was the wind speeds of a strong category two hurricane on my college campus. The derecho brought a storm surge with it on the western part of the county on the Gulf, a big one. It turned ice cold afterwards, and it stayed for days. After the superstorm had passed out of the U.S., normal March Florida weather returned.


I just checked, and the maximum wind in my area was 96 mphs. I bet we topped that.
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Quoting popartpete:
I saw a period of wet flurries in East Pasco County the day after the 1993 Derecho associated with the '93 Superstorm.


The day prior, it had been sunny and 80 degrees. Suddenly, the derecho hit. We had almost no warning, only just an hour or two before it hit, and even so, we weren't expecting a hurricane, which is was what it was like. I would estimate it was the wind speeds of a strong category two hurricane on my college campus. The derecho brought a storm surge with it on the western part of the county on the Gulf, a big one. It turned ice cold afterwards, and it stayed for days. After the superstorm had passed out of the U.S., normal March Florida weather returned.
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Quoting LargoFl:
It is rare for there to be snow in Florida. The reason that snow so rarely occurs in this U.S. state is that freezing temperatures in Florida are generally caused by the cold and dry winds of anticyclones. Frost is more common than snow, requiring temperatures of 45°F (7°C) or less at 2 metres (7 ft) above sea level, a cloudless sky, and a relative humidity of 65% or more.[1] In the general case, for snow to occur, the polar jet stream must move southward through Texas and into the Gulf of Mexico, with a stalled cold front across the southern portion of the state curving northeastward to combine freezing air into the frontal clouds.[2]

Much of the known information on snow in Florida prior to 1900 is from weather climatology provided by the Jacksonville National Weather Service; for this reason, information for other locations is sparse.[1] The earliest recorded instance of snow in Florida was a snowstorm that occurred in 1774; being unaccustomed to snow, some residents called it "extraordinary white rain."[1] The first White Christmas in Jacksonville's history resulted from a snowfall that occurred on December 23, 1989.[2] The most recent occurrence of snow in Florida took place on January 9, 2011, when sleet was reported in the counties of Escambia and Santa Rosa.[3]


I saw a period of wet flurries in East Pasco County the day after the 1993 Derecho associated with the '93 Superstorm.
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274. Skyepony (Mod)
Major climate model fail in snow extent. Just published..& to get the full affect go here & look at graph 3 expanded. For June Snow Cover Extent we hit total alarm doom model level not possible til 2025 & this isn't suppose to by the new normal by 2005's total doom model til ~2060.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 39, L19504, 6 PP., 2012
doi:10.1029/2012GL053387

Spring snow cover extent reductions in the 2008–2012 period exceeding climate model projections
Key Points

N. Hemisphere spring snow cover extent reductions since 1967 are significant
Rate of June snow loss exceeds the rate of September sea ice loss (1979-2011)
Snow reductions since 2005 exceed an ensemble of CMIP5 simulations

C. Derksen

Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

R. Brown

Environment Canada at Ouranos Inc., Montréal, Quebec, Canada

Analysis of Northern Hemisphere spring terrestrial snow cover extent (SCE) from the NOAA snow chart Climate Data Record (CDR) for the April to June period (when snow cover is mainly located over the Arctic) has revealed statistically significant reductions in May and June SCE. Successive records for the lowest June SCE have been set each year for Eurasia since 2008, and in 3 of the past 5 years for North America. The rate of loss of June snow cover extent between 1979 and 2011 (−17.8% decade−1) is greater than the loss of September sea ice extent (−10.6% decade−1) over the same period. Analysis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model output shows the marked reductions in June SCE observed since 2005 fall below the zone of model consensus defined by +/−1 standard deviation from the multi-model ensemble mean.

Received 30 July 2012; accepted 9 September 2012; published 10 October 2012.

Citation: Derksen, C. and R. Brown (2012), Spring snow cover extent reductions in the 2008–2012 period exceeding climate model projections, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L19504, doi:10.1029/2012GL053387.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39381
Cold air spills into the Great Lakes and we have a slowly intensifying TS at 204hrs.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
174hrs, weak system near Hispaniola and a low impacting the upper Mid West.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting BtnTx:
It would be nice if our personal computers could "bleep" the foul language as an option. I can understand the wu ban - glad to see you back Aussie!

I have since found a censored version.

NWS now confirms 7 tornadoes hit Mississippi Wednesday night (4 EF-1s, 2 EF-2s, 1 EF-3)
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270. BtnTx
Quoting AussieStorm:

I posted a video of a silly guy jumping on a frozen pool, it contained foul language, which I did put a warning.
It would be nice if our personal computers could "bleep" the foul language as an option. I can understand the wu ban - glad to see you back Aussie!
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269. Skyepony (Mod)
Bad storms in the southeast 7 are hurt in MS.

Aussie~ I hadn't seen the fireball..little close to the wunderservers.

Keeper~ That was so Goes-14:)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 225 Comments: 39381
Quoting AussieStorm:

Did you not see #213?


Guess I didn't. 5.0x10^5 is even harder to grasp. That's the size of a medium-sized city here in the US.
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Quoting nofailsafe:


It's difficult to imagine the scale of that death toll from a mesoscale event...

Did you not see #213?
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Quoting popartpete:
I enjoy reading and posting on the hurricane blog. What do people do to get banned? I always wondered.

I posted a video of a silly guy jumping on a frozen pool, it contained foul language, which I did put a warning.
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Day 3(72hrs):


Day 4(96hrs):
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264. BtnTx
A nice mild cooling down drying happening in SE Tx - Nice! 1st time I tried to post from my Macbook Air and wanted to see if it worked when the blog was slow...
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Day 1(24hrs):


Day 2(48hrs):
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting KoritheMan:
There was this bad boy also:



138,366 people were killed.


It's difficult to imagine the scale of that death toll from a mesoscale event...
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The blog is slow tonight. The 00z GFS is beginning and I will take care of the images for this run.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
260. flsky
Triassic extinctions

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2012/10/1 21018-triassic-extinctions-hot-global-warming-scie nce-environment/
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unusualy warmer tonight. hmmm mosquitos are coming back :(
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Quoting Doppler22:

BRING IT

If you want me to bring it then alright. I will bring you some thunderstorms.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting TropicalStormIsaac:
I was asking before what happened to AussieStorm.

He's been banned. Look at his blog page

What the heck happened in here????


My local weather webcam. It's beautiful here today.
I enjoy reading and posting on the hurricane blog. What do people do to get banned? I always wondered.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

I thought it was morning, learning something new everyday.

There is a severe weather watch possible in the Mid Atlantic.

Mesoscale Discussion #2078

BRING IT
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3861
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
954 PM AST THU OCT 18 2012

.UPDATE...THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE THIS EVENING
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA DURING OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND
A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL MAINTAIN A SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. LATEST TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED STEEP LAPSE
RATES WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.35 INCHES. AS A RESULT...
EXPECT NEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTING THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE TO INCREASE THE POP`S IN FEW ZONES.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14894
I have only one more comment to make.

I have no idea if these bloggers are male, female, single, married or what, but I was just thinking if mitthbevnuruodo and nrtiwlnvragn got together and had children, what would they name the kids?
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 159 Comments: 19370
Quoting AussieStorm:
92C needs to break off from the ITCZ to have any chance. Nice t-wave though.


that's why many of these don't make it...but I was surprised to see Neki doing it
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

...get on chat.

Chat about to get even crazier, great.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting MississippiWx:


That's a weak rebuttal, even for you.

...get on chat.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32825
Tornado activity well below normal for 2012 after a fast start.



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Quoting wxchaser97:

Right now it has a 10% of development, though that number could rise.

1. A surface trough about 900 miles south of Kauai is moving west slowly. Thunderstorms are flaring up along the trough but there is little sign of a circulation. There is a low chance, 10 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.


ohh... I don't go to the CPHC site so much.... thanks
I didn't know there were two other invest in the central pacific already
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Hi everyone...

any chances for this one



I also saw the NWS puts the NE US at near normal...which is in a big contrast to a "snow-dump" accuweather call for...
92C needs to break off from the ITCZ to have any chance. Nice t-wave though.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Hi everyone...

any chances for this one



I also saw the NWS puts the NE US at near normal...which is in a big contrast to a "snow-dump" accuweather call for...

Right now it has a 10% of development, though that number could rise.

1. A surface trough about 900 miles south of Kauai is moving west slowly. Thunderstorms are flaring up along the trough but there is little sign of a circulation. There is a low chance, 10 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
MississippiWx TropicalAnalystwx13
Put your handbags down and straighten your skirts. Get a grip you two.

Sky, did you see this?
Car-Sized Meteor Breaks Up Over Bay Area Skies « CBS San Francisco
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's nighttime here, dummy.

I thought it was morning, learning something new everyday.

There is a severe weather watch possible in the Mid Atlantic.

Mesoscale Discussion #2078
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Hi everyone...

any chances for this one



I also saw the NWS puts the NE US at near normal...which is in a big contrast to a "snow-dump" accuweather call for...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's nighttime here, dummy.


That's a weak rebuttal, even for you.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Surprised that you could find the typo.

Evening, everyone. :-)

Evening MSWX.

Quoting KoritheMan:


At this point I don't care if I make the deadline or not. As long as it's before May 15, 2013.

And when we get to May 14th, 2013 and you still aren't finished then what?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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