Hurricane Paul pounding Baja; Hurricane Rafael brushing Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on October 16, 2012

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Hurricane Paul put on an impressive burst of rapid intensification on Monday, topping out as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds at 2 pm PDT on Monday. Paul has weakened some this morning, due to high wind shear of 30 knots, but remains a potent Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds as it heads towards landfall this afternoon on the Baja Mexico coast. The 3006-passenger cruise ship Carnival Splendor made a daring run southeastwards along the Baja coast in front of Hurricane Paul, and encountered some very heavy weather this morning. At 2 am PDT, the vessel reported sustained winds of 54 mph and hail in a heavy squall located about 160 miles northeast of Paul's eye. Four hours later, at 6 am PDT, the ship was still measuring 54 mph winds, at point about 140 miles east of the eye and 40 miles northwest of the Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. The winds were measured on top of the ship, at an altitude more than 100 feet above the standard 10 meter (32.8') altitude used to report winds. If you know of a passenger who was on the ship, tell them to upload a wunderphoto and a report of what is was like! The view from the deck webcam shows that not too many passengers were out taking wunderphotos this morning, though.

Since the region of coast where Paul will hit is very sparsely populated, heavy rains will be the main threat from the storm. Cabo San Lucas has picked up 2.23" of rain from Paul as of 7 am PDT this morning, and San Jose Del Cabo picked up 2.00". Neither city is expected to get tropical storm-force winds from Paul, according to the latest wind probability forecast from NHC. Paul's formation brings this year's tally in the Eastern Pacific to 16 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. An average Eastern Pacific season has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Paul taken at 2:15 pm EDT Monday, October 15, 2012. At the time, Paul was peaking in intensity--a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Rafael becomes a hurricane
Hurricane Rafael became the ninth hurricane of this busy 2012 Atlantic hurricane season on Monday afternoon. Data from the Hurricane Hunters and satellite loops show that Rafael is holding its own against high wind shear near 30 knots. Rafael has even managed to intensify slightly this morning, to a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, as it heads north-northeast on a path that is expected to take the center about 140 miles east of Bermuda near 8 pm EDT this Tuesday night. Images from the Bermuda radar show that the outer spiral bands of Rafael have reached the island, and very heavy rains lie just to Bermuda's south. Wind shear is expected to increase to an extremely high 40 knots on Wednesday, which should be able to weaken Rafael to a tropical storm. The 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 44% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds from Rafael. The models are pretty tightly clustered showing a track for Rafael to the east of Bermuda, putting the island on the weaker (left front) side of the storm.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Rafael taken at 11:55 am EDT Monday, October 15, 2012. At the time, Rafael was intensifying, with top winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Possible Caribbean development next week
Most of the models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Southwest Caribbean Sea off the coast of Nicaragua by the middle of next week. It's too early speculate on where such a storm might go, but residents of Central America, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should anticipate the possibility of a multi-day period of very heavy rains affecting them late next week, even if a tropical depression does not form.


Figure 3. I couldn't resist reposting this image: a coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 8, 2012, sparking a dramatic display of Northern Lights that lasted for several days. The aurora combined with clouds to create this remarkable scene over Lekangsund, Norway, on Oct. 10, 2012, as captured by Hugo Løhre. Larger versions of the image are available at nasa.gov.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Weather Channel has laid off 7% of their workers due to restructuring, and just like Jeff Morrow, another meteorologist, Adam Berg, is gone. These were two of my favorites as well...
ohhhh Adam Berg was my favorite in there.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4208
135. wxmod
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Quoting CaribBoy:
Well, Rafael has been pretty interesting in the N Leewards :) I finally got the rain I have been waiting for a loooooong time... 8inches in 48 hours. Really loved the OMINOUS DRAK skies when the center moved close saturday afternoon through sunday afternoon. I got my fix, but wouldn't say NO TO SOMETHING ELSE LATER IN THE MONTH AND IN NOVEMBER LOL.


YAY finally! :)
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 841
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


yeah cool

hey you never know it could be another Hurricane Paloma

also sorry about 2x posting I'm working off my PS3


Lol I'm confident you will monitor the weather carefully.
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I imagine that its almost impossible to get an Anna like the one of 1961 track.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4208
Quoting CaribBoy:


Yeah I REALLY enjoyed it. We had gusts of 50-70mph saturday evening and torrential rain during 3 days from friday through monday. No significant damage, and most are happy cause we finally got that precious rain!

I hope the W Carib storm won't be a Wilma though lol.


yeah cool

hey you never know it could be another Hurricane Paloma

also sorry about 2x posting I'm working off my PS3
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11666
Next week's Southern U.S. warmup is intensifying a bit according to the CPC:

CPC
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I smell a storm coming my way next week/end

Quoting CaribBoy:
Well, Rafael has been pretty interesting in the N Leewards :) I finally got the rain I have been waiting for a loooooong time... 8inches in 48 hours. Really loved the OMINOUS DRAK skies when the center moved close saturday afternoon through sunday afternoon. I got my fix, but wouldn't say NO TO SOMETHING ELSE LATER IN THE MONTH AND IN NOVEMBER LOL.


hey caribstorm I hope you enjoyed this hurricane ex TS when it came to you
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11666
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I smell a storm coming my way next week/end



hey caribstorm I hope you enjoyed this hurricane ex TS when it came to you


Yeah I REALLY enjoyed it. We had gusts of 50-70mph saturday evening and torrential rain during 3 days from friday through monday. No significant damage, and most are happy cause we finally got that precious rain!

I hope the W Carib storm won't be a Wilma though lol.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Weather Channel has laid off 7% of their workers due to restructuring, and just like Jeff Morrow, another meteorologist, Adam Berg, is gone. These were two of my favorites as well...


Oh my. TWC will not be the same as when they started. My best viewing times were when John Hope was doing the Tropical Updates.
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The Weather Channel has laid off 7% of their workers due to restructuring, and just like Jeff Morrow, another meteorologist, Adam Berg, is gone. These were two of my favorites as well...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31858
I smell a storm coming my way next week/end

Quoting CaribBoy:
Well, Rafael has been pretty interesting in the N Leewards :) I finally got the rain I have been waiting for a loooooong time... 8inches in 48 hours. Really loved the OMINOUS DRAK skies when the center moved close saturday afternoon through sunday afternoon. I got my fix, but wouldn't say NO TO SOMETHING ELSE LATER IN THE MONTH AND IN NOVEMBER LOL.


hey caribstorm I hope you enjoyed this hurricane ex TS when it came to you
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11666
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
12Z 216HR!
looks like rain for me.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4208
12z Euro at 240 hours.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, Rafael has been pretty interesting in the N Leewards :) I finally got the rain I have been waiting for a loooooong time... 8inches in 48 hours. Really loved the OMINOUS DRAK skies when the center moved close saturday afternoon through sunday afternoon. I got my fix, but wouldn't say NO TO SOMETHING ELSE LATER IN THE MONTH AND IN NOVEMBER LOL.
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Good afternoon everyone. There's still a lot of disagreement on the models right now but the important thing to realize at this point is that even though solutions change on a run to run basis, they are at least consistent in showing something forming in 8-10 days. Honestly the 12z GFS solution seems very possible to me, I think it's very possible we see a storm develop and recurve before it reaches the US.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7724
12Z 216HR!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4447
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
238 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

PRC047-051-135-137-143-145-162030-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0386.121016T1838Z-121016T2030Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
COROZAL PR-VEGA ALTA PR-VEGA BAJA PR-DORADO PR-TOA ALTA PR-
TOA BAJA PR-
238 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
COROZAL...VEGA ALTA...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...TOA ALTA AND TOA BAJA

* UNTIL 430 PM AST

* AT 237 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA...INCLUDING THE VEGA BAJA AREA. THESE AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS
AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT
LEAST 430 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1850 6639 1849 6633 1848 6629 1849 6625
1848 6625 1835 6627 1834 6636 1850 6640
1851 6639

$$

AAS
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
221 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

PRC031-033-061-087-127-161915-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0385.121016T1821Z-121016T1915Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
GUAYNABO PR-SAN JUAN PR-CAROLINA PR-CATANO PR-LOIZA PR-
221 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
GUAYNABO...SAN JUAN...CAROLINA...CATANO AND LOIZA

* UNTIL 315 PM AST

* AT 210 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA...INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA. THESE
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG
ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST 315 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1846 6595 1843 6594 1839 6600 1839 6607
1845 6612 1846 6612 1847 6604 1845 6602
1847 6598

$$

FIGUEROA
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SST's NE

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25956
12z Euro starts at 120 hours.

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Quoting kwgirl:
I just hope it does not stop running altogether.
You're not alone with that hope; such a cessation would be truly catastrophic indeed...
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
GULF STREAM MOVED 125 MILES NORTH IN 2011

The core of the Gulf Stream diverted as much as 125 miles to the north of its average position last year.

Tue Oct 16, 2012 09:42 AM ET
Content provided by Douglas Main, OurAmazingPlanet

Last fall, fishermen in the Northeast United States noticed stronger currents and higher water temperatures than usual, so they tapped scientists from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts to help them find out what was going on.


A study by the scientists, published recently in the journal Scientific Reports, suggests the cause was a change in the direction of the Gulf Stream, the current that ferries warm water from the Gulf of Mexico northeast into the Atlantic and along the U.S. East Coast. The scientists found that the center, or core, of the Gulf Stream was diverted as much as 125 miles (200 kilometers) to the north of its average position, according to a WHOI statement.

In late October 2011, temperatures increased at two deep-water sensors attached to lobster traps off Nantucket by as much as 12 degrees Fahrenheit (6.7 degrees Celsius) over the course of several days. That pushed water temperatures above 64 F (18 C), which is very unusual in the waters off southern New England for that time of year.  It's also 4 F (2 C) higher than temperatures have been at one of these locations in the last decade, said study author and WHOI researcher Glen Gawarkiewicz.
We here in the Florida Keys know that the Gulfstream shifts position. Sometimes it is close to shore and sometimes further offshore. You can see the color change in the water when you go out there. After reading the article, it appears that the Gulfstream starts turning East more southerly than I thought. Maybe the glacier and artic melt is causing this? I just hope it does not stop running altogether.
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The 12z GFS is actually following suit of the Euro where it had it going east of Florida since the 00z run..
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


It may be Clarion Island, which is a bit North of Sacorro


The automated weather station on Clarion Island was mentioned in Mondays 11am advisory
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6004
You guys make way too big of assumptions sometimes, the models are going to shift when it comes to intensity. Going from a hurricane to TS is poor consistency. Relax, odds are it will probably happen as we have a huge MJO pulse coming through, classic monsoonal development.
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Quoting 954FtLCane:


oh my. I a-blob-ogize.


No bloblem. lol
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25956


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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


It may be Clarion Island, which is a bit North of Sacorro


My guess would be Clarion Island as well. Looking at Google maps it's SW of the southern tip of the baha whereas the Isle of Sacorro is more SSW.
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76. Yup, a recurve right into Florida.
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Quoting Grothar:


What you people don't know about blobs...... :)


oh my. I a-blob-ogize.
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Tweets from Joe B. of Weatherbell

Winter in far east looks to be another cold beast. PDO is now cold and like 1950, China, Korea Japan, feel the effects

Much of europe to turn cold for November too.. N Hemisphere in for a wild winter this year Global warming will turn to climate change

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Ocean currents responsible for arctic sea ice loss, I assume ocean currents don't stay the same for centuries, they change and change course.
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
GOLDWAITE...TO HILLSBORO...TO ATHENS. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
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"are you ready kids?" aye ye captain!..I cant hear you!"

Sandy and Tony..240 hour frame on 12Z Euro

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Quoting Skyepony:
That black spot must be Isle Sacorro.


It may be Clarion Island, which is a bit North of Sacorro
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6004
no rain at all today it seems.......
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
GULF STREAM MOVED 125 MILES NORTH IN 2011

The core of the Gulf Stream diverted as much as 125 miles to the north of its average position last year.

Tue Oct 16, 2012 09:42 AM ET
Content provided by Douglas Main, OurAmazingPlanet

Last fall, fishermen in the Northeast United States noticed stronger currents and higher water temperatures than usual, so they tapped scientists from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts to help them find out what was going on.


A study by the scientists, published recently in the journal Scientific Reports, suggests the cause was a change in the direction of the Gulf Stream, the current that ferries warm water from the Gulf of Mexico northeast into the Atlantic and along the U.S. East Coast. The scientists found that the center, or core, of the Gulf Stream was diverted as much as 125 miles (200 kilometers) to the north of its average position, according to a WHOI statement.

In late October 2011, temperatures increased at two deep-water sensors attached to lobster traps off Nantucket by as much as 12 degrees Fahrenheit (6.7 degrees Celsius) over the course of several days. That pushed water temperatures above 64 F (18 C), which is very unusual in the waters off southern New England for that time of year. It's also 4 F (2 C) higher than temperatures have been at one of these locations in the last decade, said study author and WHOI researcher Glen Gawarkiewicz.


Makes sense, as the ice melts faster up there because of that, that is a significant jump north
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Quoting LargoFl:
GFS at 240 hours......it still insists some is going to develop........................................... ....
still way off but im watching to see IF this does develop..if it does the GFS gets a high 5 for being Right way way out in time..seems the new upgrade it got really works.
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96. Skyepony (Mod)
That black spot must be Isle Sacorro.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37779
Thanks for the picture, Dr. Masters. It just became my new wallpaper.
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GFS at 240 hours......it still insists some is going to develop........................................... ....
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Quoting Grothar:
GFS really made a big change since the 006Z

That's what happens with computer models 200+ hours out....
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92. Skyepony (Mod)
What is the black spot on that MODIS shot of PAUL that Masters left us in the entry?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37779
Link for #90

http://news.discovery.com/earth/gulf-stream-moved -north-121016.html
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6004
GULF STREAM MOVED 125 MILES NORTH IN 2011

The core of the Gulf Stream diverted as much as 125 miles to the north of its average position last year.

Tue Oct 16, 2012 09:42 AM ET
Content provided by Douglas Main, OurAmazingPlanet

Last fall, fishermen in the Northeast United States noticed stronger currents and higher water temperatures than usual, so they tapped scientists from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts to help them find out what was going on.


A study by the scientists, published recently in the journal Scientific Reports, suggests the cause was a change in the direction of the Gulf Stream, the current that ferries warm water from the Gulf of Mexico northeast into the Atlantic and along the U.S. East Coast. The scientists found that the center, or core, of the Gulf Stream was diverted as much as 125 miles (200 kilometers) to the north of its average position, according to a WHOI statement.

In late October 2011, temperatures increased at two deep-water sensors attached to lobster traps off Nantucket by as much as 12 degrees Fahrenheit (6.7 degrees Celsius) over the course of several days. That pushed water temperatures above 64 F (18 C), which is very unusual in the waters off southern New England for that time of year.  It's also 4 F (2 C) higher than temperatures have been at one of these locations in the last decade, said study author and WHOI researcher Glen Gawarkiewicz.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6004
89. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting wxmod:
This chart shows arctic sea ice anomaly is still widening. The chart shows the difference between a "normal" year and actual conditions. Sea ice reached a record low in September and has started to re form, but ice is not recovering as fast as usual, and this may spell trouble for next summer.



There is another Arctic storm raging up there right now too.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37779
Quoting Grothar:
GFS really made a big change since the 006Z

Sandy and Tony again.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4208
Quoting 954FtLCane:


kinda, sorta, blobbish like feature?


What you people don't know about blobs...... :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25956

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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