Hurricane Paul pounding Baja; Hurricane Rafael brushing Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on October 16, 2012

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Hurricane Paul put on an impressive burst of rapid intensification on Monday, topping out as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds at 2 pm PDT on Monday. Paul has weakened some this morning, due to high wind shear of 30 knots, but remains a potent Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds as it heads towards landfall this afternoon on the Baja Mexico coast. The 3006-passenger cruise ship Carnival Splendor made a daring run southeastwards along the Baja coast in front of Hurricane Paul, and encountered some very heavy weather this morning. At 2 am PDT, the vessel reported sustained winds of 54 mph and hail in a heavy squall located about 160 miles northeast of Paul's eye. Four hours later, at 6 am PDT, the ship was still measuring 54 mph winds, at point about 140 miles east of the eye and 40 miles northwest of the Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. The winds were measured on top of the ship, at an altitude more than 100 feet above the standard 10 meter (32.8') altitude used to report winds. If you know of a passenger who was on the ship, tell them to upload a wunderphoto and a report of what is was like! The view from the deck webcam shows that not too many passengers were out taking wunderphotos this morning, though.

Since the region of coast where Paul will hit is very sparsely populated, heavy rains will be the main threat from the storm. Cabo San Lucas has picked up 2.23" of rain from Paul as of 7 am PDT this morning, and San Jose Del Cabo picked up 2.00". Neither city is expected to get tropical storm-force winds from Paul, according to the latest wind probability forecast from NHC. Paul's formation brings this year's tally in the Eastern Pacific to 16 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. An average Eastern Pacific season has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Paul taken at 2:15 pm EDT Monday, October 15, 2012. At the time, Paul was peaking in intensity--a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Rafael becomes a hurricane
Hurricane Rafael became the ninth hurricane of this busy 2012 Atlantic hurricane season on Monday afternoon. Data from the Hurricane Hunters and satellite loops show that Rafael is holding its own against high wind shear near 30 knots. Rafael has even managed to intensify slightly this morning, to a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, as it heads north-northeast on a path that is expected to take the center about 140 miles east of Bermuda near 8 pm EDT this Tuesday night. Images from the Bermuda radar show that the outer spiral bands of Rafael have reached the island, and very heavy rains lie just to Bermuda's south. Wind shear is expected to increase to an extremely high 40 knots on Wednesday, which should be able to weaken Rafael to a tropical storm. The 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 44% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds from Rafael. The models are pretty tightly clustered showing a track for Rafael to the east of Bermuda, putting the island on the weaker (left front) side of the storm.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Rafael taken at 11:55 am EDT Monday, October 15, 2012. At the time, Rafael was intensifying, with top winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Possible Caribbean development next week
Most of the models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Southwest Caribbean Sea off the coast of Nicaragua by the middle of next week. It's too early speculate on where such a storm might go, but residents of Central America, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should anticipate the possibility of a multi-day period of very heavy rains affecting them late next week, even if a tropical depression does not form.


Figure 3. I couldn't resist reposting this image: a coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 8, 2012, sparking a dramatic display of Northern Lights that lasted for several days. The aurora combined with clouds to create this remarkable scene over Lekangsund, Norway, on Oct. 10, 2012, as captured by Hugo Løhre. Larger versions of the image are available at nasa.gov.

Jeff Masters

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186. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting RitaEvac:
And Patrap is missing


Mystery explosion shatters windows, lights sky in Louisiana


The National Weather Service captured images of the staggering explosion on its Doppler Radar system, explains a report posted online. Based on radar analysis, the plume was initially as high as almost 7,200 feet above ground level.

The agency said the radar imagery is similar to that usually seen with smoke plumes associated with wildfires




Was a massive explosion at ammunition recycling factory.

The 1/2hr frames of the WunderNEXRAD Archive misses it.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nice Deadmau5 image too
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

PRC053-103-162215-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0387.000000T0000Z-121016T2215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
NAGUABO PR-FAJARDO PR-
513 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
NAGUABO AND FAJARDO

* UNTIL 615 PM AST

DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUE TO FORM AND MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THESE AND THE SURROUNDING MUNICIPALITIES.THIS
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO RUNOFF AND RAPID RISES IN SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS... AT
LEAST UNTIL 615 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1836 6565 1829 6562 1829 6569 1827 6570
1829 6575 1827 6576 1825 6571 1823 6583
1825 6582 1827 6583 1829 6578 1828 6578
1830 6575 1829 6572

$$

RAM
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13298
Quoting Skyepony:
That GOES-13 test that ended a few hours ago did look promising:)) She's going back into operation!!! October 18, 2012 at 1445 UTC - Switch to GOES-13.


Topic: GOES-13 Return to Operational Service as GOES-East and GOES-14
Drift Stop Maneuver


Date/Time Issued: October 16, 2012 at 2038 UTC

Product(s) or Data Impacted: GOES-13 and GOES-14 Imager and Sounder
Data, GVAR Data

Date/Time of Initial Impact: October 18, 2012 at 1444 UTC - Switch to
GOES-13 initiated.

Date/Time of Expected End: October 18, 2012 at 1445 UTC - Switch to
GOES-13 completed.

Note: GOES-14 Drift Stop Maneuver will be executed October 19,
2012 at 1356 UTC

Length of Outage: See Details.

Details/Specifics of Change:
Tests of GOES-13 instrumentation have demonstrated the imager and
sounder are ready to return to GOES-East operational service. GOES-13
Imager data are nominal and thanks to outgassing activities the
noise in
GOES-13 Sounder shortwave data has been reduced compared to pre-anomaly
levels. The return of GOES-13 to operational service also optimizes
the
long term continuity of the GOES constellation.


On October 18, 2012 at 1444 UTC GOES-13 data will be inserted back into
the GOES-13 GVAR data stream, replacing the current GOES-14 data
stream.
Users do not need to repoint their antennas as the switch of GVAR data
streams will be transparent. Users will notice the immediate shift of
Earth coverage from the current GOES-14 drifting position to the
GOES-13
position at 75 degrees West longitude. GOES-East products will be
generated using GOES-13 and will receive nominal 24x7 monitoring. GINI
and Remapper output will be monitored to ensure nominal GOES-East
coverage of the CONUS for users of AWIPS and for users of the
SATEPSDIST
servers within ESPC. Products requiring a climatology of 30 days will
not be generated until the requisite number of fixed satellite location
days have passed:
- ASDTA SMOKE (Automated Smoke Detection and Tracking Algorithm)
- GASP (GOES Aerosol and Smoke Product)
- GEO-SST (No NETCDF format)
- GSIP-FD (GOES Surface Insolation Product-Full Disk)


RSO and SRSO schedules from GOES-13 will be available to the NWS
immediately after the switch is completed. A final stop maneuver of
GOES-14 will occur on October 19, 2012 at 1356 UTC placing it at a
position of 89.5 degrees West longitude where it will remain in standby

until further notice.



That's awesome!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30253
Quoting RitaEvac:
We need to find that radar image of this event


Found this..The explosion at the underground bunker at Camp Minden in Webster Parish, LA, showed up on radar Monday night....more
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We need to find that radar image of this event
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
And Patrap is missing


Mystery explosion shatters windows, lights sky in Louisiana


The National Weather Service captured images of the staggering explosion on its Doppler Radar system, explains a report posted online. Based on radar analysis, the plume was initially as high as almost 7,200 feet above ground level.

The agency said the radar imagery is similar to that usually seen with smoke plumes associated with wildfires


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nofailsafe:


What is different about this year? It's as if all of a sudden we got a ton of rain in the beginning, then it's slowly been tapering off through the year. IAH is now below normal for rainfall this year despite being above normal ever since January.

I guess we'll have to see what the next month or so brings, I don't like the looks of this. Far too little rain the past few weeks.

I hate to say this, but I have a feeling that N-G was right, we're in for a rough, multi-year dry period.


Yep, we're drying out rapidly now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
178. Skyepony (Mod)
That GOES-13 test that ended a few hours ago did look promising:)) She's going back into operation!!! October 18, 2012 at 1445 UTC - Switch to GOES-13.


Topic: GOES-13 Return to Operational Service as GOES-East and GOES-14
Drift Stop Maneuver


Date/Time Issued: October 16, 2012 at 2038 UTC

Product(s) or Data Impacted: GOES-13 and GOES-14 Imager and Sounder
Data, GVAR Data

Date/Time of Initial Impact: October 18, 2012 at 1444 UTC - Switch to
GOES-13 initiated.

Date/Time of Expected End: October 18, 2012 at 1445 UTC - Switch to
GOES-13 completed.

Note: GOES-14 Drift Stop Maneuver will be executed October 19,
2012 at 1356 UTC

Length of Outage: See Details.

Details/Specifics of Change:
Tests of GOES-13 instrumentation have demonstrated the imager and
sounder are ready to return to GOES-East operational service. GOES-13
Imager data are nominal and thanks to outgassing activities the
noise in
GOES-13 Sounder shortwave data has been reduced compared to pre-anomaly
levels. The return of GOES-13 to operational service also optimizes
the
long term continuity of the GOES constellation.


On October 18, 2012 at 1444 UTC GOES-13 data will be inserted back into
the GOES-13 GVAR data stream, replacing the current GOES-14 data
stream.
Users do not need to repoint their antennas as the switch of GVAR data
streams will be transparent. Users will notice the immediate shift of
Earth coverage from the current GOES-14 drifting position to the
GOES-13
position at 75 degrees West longitude. GOES-East products will be
generated using GOES-13 and will receive nominal 24x7 monitoring. GINI
and Remapper output will be monitored to ensure nominal GOES-East
coverage of the CONUS for users of AWIPS and for users of the
SATEPSDIST
servers within ESPC. Products requiring a climatology of 30 days will
not be generated until the requisite number of fixed satellite location
days have passed:
- ASDTA SMOKE (Automated Smoke Detection and Tracking Algorithm)
- GASP (GOES Aerosol and Smoke Product)
- GEO-SST (No NETCDF format)
- GSIP-FD (GOES Surface Insolation Product-Full Disk)


RSO and SRSO schedules from GOES-13 will be available to the NWS
immediately after the switch is completed. A final stop maneuver of
GOES-14 will occur on October 19, 2012 at 1356 UTC placing it at a
position of 89.5 degrees West longitude where it will remain in standby

until further notice.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
288 hours

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23721
Quoting kwgirl:
Why not? I saw palm trees in Dunoon Scotland, well, along the riverside back in 1976/1977. Amazed me. They were dwarf date trees.


Ireland and Southern England have palm trees.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23721
What a picture of Paul...did Clarion Island survive?
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All times in GMT. Derived from NHC_ATCF data for HurricaneRafael @ 16Oct.06pm

15Oct.06pm 23.6n65.8w 70knots(81mph)130km/h 980millibars TropicalStorm was re-evaluated&altered to
15Oct.06pm 23.6n65.8w 75knots(86mph)139km/h 979millibars TropicalStorm

16Oct.12pm 27.3n65.0w 75knots(86mph)139km/h 970millibars Hurricane was re-evaluated&altered to
16Oct.12pm 27.6n64.9w 80knots(92mph)148km/h 970millibars Hurricane

BDA-Bermuda :: NGD-Anegada



The longest line is a straightline projection through Rafael's 2 most recent positions to it's closest approach to Bermuda.

16Oct.06pm -- HurricaneRafael was heading for a 17Oct.02:26amGMT passage 59miles(96kilometres)ESEast of Bermuda in ~5&1/2hours

Copy&paste ngd, bda, 22.6n65.6w-23.6n65.8w, 23.6n65.8w-24.6n65.6w, 24.6n65.6w-25.9n65.3w, 25.9n65.3w-27.6n64.9w, 27.6n64.9w-29.5n64.4w, 27.6n64.9w-32.1684n63.6603w, 32.3675n64.6475w-32.1684n63.660w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
Not sure what the hell is going on, but if we don't get rains this fall/winter/spring, it's gonna be doom for TX again


What is different about this year? It's as if all of a sudden we got a ton of rain in the beginning, then it's slowly been tapering off through the year. IAH is now below normal for rainfall this year despite being above normal ever since January.

I guess we'll have to see what the next month or so brings, I don't like the looks of this. Far too little rain the past few weeks.

I hate to say this, but I have a feeling that N-G was right, we're in for a rough, multi-year dry period.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012

STRONG WIND SHEAR HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER PAUL...AND THE LOW-
LEVEL CENTER IS RAPIDLY BECOMING SEPARATED FROM THE CONVECTION.
GIVEN THE DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 65 KNOTS. THESE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS
ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER
AND ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. WITH THE CURRENT SHEAR
AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN...WEAKENING IS
FORECAST...AND PAUL WILL PROBABLY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS OR EARLIER.

AFTER A RAPID MOTION TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...PAUL HAS SLOWED
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT ONLY 13
KNOTS. THIS SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WAS ACTUALLY
ANTICIPATED BY MODELS AND INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. PAUL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED NORTHWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AROUND A CUTOFF LOW LOCATED
SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP
PAUL OR ITS REMANTS OVER OR NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

GIVEN THE RAPID WEAKENING TREND...THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY
BE DISCONTINUED AND BE REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATER
TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 24.7N 112.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 26.5N 112.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/1800Z 28.0N 113.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/0600Z 29.0N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 18/1800Z 29.5N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13298
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012

...HURRICANE PAUL SLOWS DOWN AND IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 112.4W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
* EVARISTO TO MULEGE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* LA PAZ TO SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO
* NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST. PAUL HAS SLOWED
DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY.

PAUL IS BARELY A HURRICANE...AND ITS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND PAUL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR EARLIER.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM. A MEXICAN AUTOMATIC STATION IN PUERTO CORTES
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 52 MPH...84 KM/H WITH A GUST OF
71 MPH...114 KM/H.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN PORTIONS
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD
BEGIN ALSO IMPACTING THE AREA SOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13298

HURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF RAFAEL HAS RECENTLY TRANSITIONED FROM A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST TO AN EYE PATTERN...WITH A RECENT MICROWAVE
PASS SHOWING A SOLID INNER CORE. THIS WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST SOME
STRENGTHENING...BUT THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS
REPORTED THAT FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS HAD COME DOWN A BIT
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE PLANE DATA SUGGEST AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF ABOUT 75 KT...WITH A LITTLE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY THAN
AVERAGE GIVEN THE RECENT SATELLITE TREND. A NOAA AIRCRAFT WILL BE
IN THE AREA THIS EVENING FOR ANOTHER LOOK AT THE INTENSITY.
HOWEVER...SLOW WEAKENING SEEMS LIKE THE BEST BET DUE TO GRADUALLY
COOLING WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...NEAR THE LGEM MODEL BUT A BIT BELOW
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BETWEEN 24-36H DUE TO INTERACTION OF RAFAEL WITH A COLD
FRONT AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.

AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW THAT RAFAEL HAS RECENTLY BEEN MOVING A BIT LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE...BUT A LONGER-TERM ESTIMATE IS 020/23.
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO PREDICTED STEERING FLOW WITH THE
HURRICANE MOVING BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CAUSE RAFAEL TO
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AND TO MOVE FASTER. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ON THIS TRACK...AND EVEN THE SPEED
DIFFERENCES ARE LESS NOTICEABLE THAN ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
CYCLE. THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED WESTWARD TOWARD THE
CONSENSUS...BUT STILL LIES ON THE SPEEDIER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE FIRST 48 HOURS OR SO. AFTERWARD...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT POST-TROPICAL RAFAEL WILL COMPLETE A LARGE CYCLONIC
LOOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 30.6N 63.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 34.0N 61.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 38.8N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 43.1N 50.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/1800Z 46.6N 40.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/1800Z 52.5N 29.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/1800Z 50.5N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1800Z 44.0N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13298
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN BERMUDA THIS EVENING...
5:00 PM AST Tue Oct 16
Location: 30.6°N 63.8°W
Moving: NNE at 26 mph
Min pressure: 969 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
Ok, signing out for now... will get online later if the presidential debate coverage does not consume me.... lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good afternoon everyone, I see the models still show development and Rafael has weakened back to 85mph.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
Quoting yqt1001:


Is that the LLC that is nearly exposed? If it is then the convection might be on the verge of completely dissipating.

My unprofessional depiction of Rafael.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30253
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Rafael
Niiiiice....

Quoting Grothar:
I posted this anomaly chart last week. Look at those temperatures in the North. I've never seen that before.

That anomaly has been getting bigger every year. At this rate the idea of a cat 3 / 4 type major all the way to the New England coast will become more of a decadal thing instead of a once per century thing...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
Next week's Southern U.S. warmup is intensifying a bit according to the CPC:


I take the CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlooks with a grain of salt. They change like the wind. Just yesterday or the day prior it represented below average temps for a good portion of the nation east of the MS river. But, for the time being, it looks toasty for the CONUS with the exception of the Pac. NW.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Rafael is developing an eye but its low-level and mid-level centers are significantly misaligned.



Is that the LLC that is nearly exposed? If it is then the convection might be on the verge of completely dissipating.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TomTaylor:
True, but this out to day 5. We start noticing the real differences between the cycles in the long range, or beyond 5 days. After 5 days, model performance is known to significantly degrade.

Take a look at the ECMWF, our most reliable model, for example. Here is graph for the 500hPa anomaly correlation for the past 30 years. Blue is day 3, red is day 5, green is day 7 and yellow is day 10. Notice by day five we are still at 90%, but go out just two more days and we are at 75%. Go out three more days and its at 45%.


This is true, but I was referring to each individual cycle of the GFS within 120 hours (wasn't really trying to correlate it to the long range).
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30253
Quoting Grothar:


That is quite a shift. Pretty soon they will be able to grow palm trees on Long Island.
Why not? I saw palm trees in Dunoon Scotland, well, along the riverside back in 1976/1977. Amazed me. They were dwarf date trees.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
True, but this out to day 5. We start noticing the real differences between the cycles in the long range, or beyond 5 days. After 5 days, model performance is known to significantly degrade.

Take a look at the ECMWF, our most reliable model, for example. Here is graph for the 500hPa anomaly correlation for the past 30 years. Blue is day 3, red is day 5, green is day 7 and yellow is day 10. Notice by day five we are still at 90%, but go out just two more days and we are at 75%. Go out three more days and its at 45%.



i see mid to long term getting worse in recent years!
jk its all just noise.
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Quoting DrMickey:

"They call that one Muad'Dib".


L...O...L...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Brian McNoldy posted an image comparing the average model error for all four cycles of the GFS. Contrary to popular belief, the 06z and 18z runs are not all that unreliable. In fact, there is barely any difference.

True, but this out to day 5. We start noticing the real differences between the cycles in the long range, or beyond 5 days. After 5 days, model performance is known to significantly degrade.

Take a look at the ECMWF, our most reliable model, for example. Here is graph for the 500hPa anomaly correlation for the past 30 years. Blue is day 3, red is day 5, green is day 7 and yellow is day 10. Notice by day five we are still at 90%, but go out just two more days and we are at 75%. Go out three more days and its at 45%.

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Quoting CaribBoy:


Yeah I REALLY enjoyed it. We had gusts of 50-70mph saturday evening and torrential rain during 3 days from friday through monday. No significant damage, and most are happy cause we finally got that precious rain!

I hope the W Carib storm won't be a Wilma though lol.


I'm so happy for you. The rains came and the winds did no significant damage. Can't ask for more than that!
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That is a pretty scary map Grothar. If it's able to punch all the way thru the arctic. I guess it's anyone's prediction as to the global weather effects. Maybe not Jurassic Park but some big changes. Talk about a lot of water vapor in the air.
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Rafael is developing an eye but its low-level and mid-level centers are significantly misaligned.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30253
From HPC:

THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ MEANDERS EAST INTO SOUTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A LOW IS TO GRADUALLY FORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH 54-60 HRS...WITH CIRCULATION FORECAST
TO DRAW THE ITCZ NORTH INTO THE BASIN LATER IN THE CYCLE.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13298
Thanks for the great update on Hurricane Paul, Dr. Masters.

Many fishing villages along hundreds of miles of spectacular coastline are in my prayers...villages like San Juanito, Guerro Niegro, as well as the municipal seat of Ciudad Constitution...further inland. These towns look like they will bear the brunt of Paul as he climbs the Baja Penninsula. Let's hope the government of Mexico is as quick to help rebuild these beautiful coastline towns as quickly as they rebuild tourist areas like Cabo, Cozumel, and Cancun...to name a few.
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Quoting Thrawst:
I can tell somebody is on vacation this week.... lol

Wish I could say I had another day off...

And I am very glad that Rafe and Paul are far away from the Bahamas....

The track Paul is taking over Baja is IMO just about as bad as it gets... the core is over land, meaning severe rainfall events over the normally desert-like mountainous spine of the peninsula, meaning potential for flash flooding in valleys and ravines is very high. When you add in the fact that many of the human settlements are in those valleys and ravines, the potential for disaster skyrockets.

I sure hope everybody is able to stay safe there over the next 24 - 36 hours...
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Been said the gulf stream has shifted some 125 miles north last year into this year


That is quite a shift. Pretty soon they will be able to grow palm trees on Long Island.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23721
Quoting Skyepony:
What is the black spot on that MODIS shot of PAUL that Masters left us in the entry?

"They call that one Muad'Dib".
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Oh my. TWC will not be the same as when they started. My best viewing times were when John Hope was doing the Tropical Updates.


I still miss Father Benito Viñes.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23721
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Weather Channel has laid off 7% of their workers due to restructuring, and just like Jeff Morrow, another meteorologist, Adam Berg, is gone. These were two of my favorites as well...

grrrrrrr liked morrow :(
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Quoting Grothar:
I posted this anomaly chart last week. Look at those temperatures in the North. I've never seen that before.



Been said the gulf stream has shifted some 125 miles north last year into this year
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I posted this anomaly chart last week. Look at those temperatures in the North. I've never seen that before.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23721
Not sure what the hell is going on, but if we don't get rains this fall/winter/spring, it's gonna be doom for TX again
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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
342 PM EDT TUE OCT 16 2012

...PATCHY FROST EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT...

.HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 81...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA...PATCHY
FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND
DRAINAGES.

VAZ007-009>014-018>020-022>024-034-035-045-046-WV Z042>045-170345-
/O.NEW.KRNK.FR.Y.0011.121017T0800Z-121017T1300Z/
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOME RY-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-AMHER ST-
CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBR IER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...
PEARISBURG...WYTHEVILLE...RADFORD...PULASKI...BLA CKSBURG...
NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...ROANOKE...
SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...BEDFORD...AMHERST...
LYNCHBURG...APPOMATTOX...BLUEFIELD...FLAT TOP...HINTON...HIX...
UNION...LEWISBURG...QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE
342 PM EDT TUE OCT 16 2012

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...DEEPER VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 81...AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.

* TIMING...FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM WEDNESDAY.

* IMPACTS...UNPROTECTED VEGETATION SENSITIVE TO FROST MAY BE
KILLED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$
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Quoting unknowncomic:
Latest Gfs good news for Fla. Looks more like a TD and it goes elsewhere.


....and of course we will take one model run this far out as gospel with regard to track and intensity.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Next week's Southern U.S. warmup is intensifying a bit according to the CPC:

CPC


That will not be good. I am back in drought even though drought monitor map not showing it, must be on a micro scale then. Because I noticed the detention ponds down a foot or more which is a tale tell sign, grass is stressed like summer time which is crazy for middle of October (watered the front yard last evening which is unheard of in October, never water in October)and crape myrtles are drooping as if during summer time.
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140. wxmod

This is on Greenland's west shore about half way up. Still melting?
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Anyone done a study, is the 10 to 15 day forecast any better than the Farmer's Almanac?
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Quoting VR46L:


I am honestly delighted for you ...you wanted it so much .:)


Now let's make JFV happy with a Miami hit from the SW Carib storm yet to be born. I'm only kidding.


It may only be a blob providing lots of rain.
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137. VR46L
Quoting CaribBoy:


Yeah I REALLY enjoyed it. We had gusts of 50-70mph saturday evening and torrential rain during 3 days from friday through monday. No significant damage, and most are happy cause we finally got that precious rain!

I hope the W Carib storm won't be a Wilma though lol.


I am honestly delighted for you ...you wanted it so much .:)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Weather Channel has laid off 7% of their workers due to restructuring, and just like Jeff Morrow, another meteorologist, Adam Berg, is gone. These were two of my favorites as well...
ohhhh Adam Berg was my favorite in there.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3705

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.