Hurricane Paul pounding Baja; Hurricane Rafael brushing Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on October 16, 2012

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Hurricane Paul put on an impressive burst of rapid intensification on Monday, topping out as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds at 2 pm PDT on Monday. Paul has weakened some this morning, due to high wind shear of 30 knots, but remains a potent Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds as it heads towards landfall this afternoon on the Baja Mexico coast. The 3006-passenger cruise ship Carnival Splendor made a daring run southeastwards along the Baja coast in front of Hurricane Paul, and encountered some very heavy weather this morning. At 2 am PDT, the vessel reported sustained winds of 54 mph and hail in a heavy squall located about 160 miles northeast of Paul's eye. Four hours later, at 6 am PDT, the ship was still measuring 54 mph winds, at point about 140 miles east of the eye and 40 miles northwest of the Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. The winds were measured on top of the ship, at an altitude more than 100 feet above the standard 10 meter (32.8') altitude used to report winds. If you know of a passenger who was on the ship, tell them to upload a wunderphoto and a report of what is was like! The view from the deck webcam shows that not too many passengers were out taking wunderphotos this morning, though.

Since the region of coast where Paul will hit is very sparsely populated, heavy rains will be the main threat from the storm. Cabo San Lucas has picked up 2.23" of rain from Paul as of 7 am PDT this morning, and San Jose Del Cabo picked up 2.00". Neither city is expected to get tropical storm-force winds from Paul, according to the latest wind probability forecast from NHC. Paul's formation brings this year's tally in the Eastern Pacific to 16 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. An average Eastern Pacific season has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Paul taken at 2:15 pm EDT Monday, October 15, 2012. At the time, Paul was peaking in intensity--a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Rafael becomes a hurricane
Hurricane Rafael became the ninth hurricane of this busy 2012 Atlantic hurricane season on Monday afternoon. Data from the Hurricane Hunters and satellite loops show that Rafael is holding its own against high wind shear near 30 knots. Rafael has even managed to intensify slightly this morning, to a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, as it heads north-northeast on a path that is expected to take the center about 140 miles east of Bermuda near 8 pm EDT this Tuesday night. Images from the Bermuda radar show that the outer spiral bands of Rafael have reached the island, and very heavy rains lie just to Bermuda's south. Wind shear is expected to increase to an extremely high 40 knots on Wednesday, which should be able to weaken Rafael to a tropical storm. The 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 44% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds from Rafael. The models are pretty tightly clustered showing a track for Rafael to the east of Bermuda, putting the island on the weaker (left front) side of the storm.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Rafael taken at 11:55 am EDT Monday, October 15, 2012. At the time, Rafael was intensifying, with top winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Possible Caribbean development next week
Most of the models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Southwest Caribbean Sea off the coast of Nicaragua by the middle of next week. It's too early speculate on where such a storm might go, but residents of Central America, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should anticipate the possibility of a multi-day period of very heavy rains affecting them late next week, even if a tropical depression does not form.


Figure 3. I couldn't resist reposting this image: a coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 8, 2012, sparking a dramatic display of Northern Lights that lasted for several days. The aurora combined with clouds to create this remarkable scene over Lekangsund, Norway, on Oct. 10, 2012, as captured by Hugo Løhre. Larger versions of the image are available at nasa.gov.

Jeff Masters

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236. MAweatherboy1
10:45 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
East it goes!

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8047
235. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:45 PM GMT on October 16, 2012

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
234. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:45 PM GMT on October 16, 2012

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
233. Grothar
10:44 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
KEEPER, I think you missed a few frames. Would you mind posting all the others?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
232. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:44 PM GMT on October 16, 2012

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
231. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:43 PM GMT on October 16, 2012

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
230. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:43 PM GMT on October 16, 2012

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
229. uncwhurricane85
10:43 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:


thats a very welcomed site!....these winters in texas sure have been rainy...Thank tha LERD! hope it keeps up last last winter
Member Since: August 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 574
228. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:41 PM GMT on October 16, 2012

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
227. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:40 PM GMT on October 16, 2012

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
226. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:40 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
A more defined system as opposed to the extremely elongated mess the 12z GFS showed makes more sense to me. It's typical of the GFS to show this occasionally, I remember it did it with Major Hurricane Rina last year.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
225. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:40 PM GMT on October 16, 2012

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
224. AussieStorm
10:39 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Just for giggles..







Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
223. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:39 PM GMT on October 16, 2012

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
222. MAweatherboy1
10:38 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
276:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8047
221. MAweatherboy1
10:37 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
252:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8047
220. PalmBeachWeather
10:36 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
What kind of a news organization slugs a misleadingly sensationalist headline breathlessly announcing a "mystery explosion" above a story that goes on to clearly state the exact location, time, and cause of that explosion?

Oh, wait--it's Fox? Why, they're not really a "news" organization at all, are they? Nevermind...
Same people that made a big deal of the "BIG" eyeball found on Pompano Beach
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
219. AussieStorm
10:34 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting Neapolitan:
What kind of a news organization slugs a misleadingly sensationalist headline breathlessly announcing a "mystery explosion" above a story that goes on to clearly state the exact location, time, and cause of that explosion?

Oh, wait--it's Fox? Why, they're not really a "news" organization at all, are they? Nevermind...

did you notice it said, The Associated Press contributed to this report at the bottom of the report?? I guess you have heard of "head-line" grabbing, this is all it was. end of story.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
218. MAweatherboy1
10:34 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
192 hours... some low pressure evident. We'll see what happens.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8047
217. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:32 PM GMT on October 16, 2012

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
216. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:29 PM GMT on October 16, 2012

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
215. CaicosRetiredSailor
10:29 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
That's spelled F-a-u-x news...
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
214. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:28 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Why not? Are you offended somehow?

No, but I imagine some people may not like having to scroll down tens of posts of model frame after model frame. It probably also slows the page load time down too.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
213. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:26 PM GMT on October 16, 2012

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
212. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:23 PM GMT on October 16, 2012

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
211. MAweatherboy1
10:23 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
By 156 hours it's continuing with the idea of developing an East Pac storm... we'll likely see Caribbean development start around 216-240 hours.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8047
210. washingtonian115
10:18 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it may be dropped this run anyway
I hate that color version.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17824
209. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:17 PM GMT on October 16, 2012

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
208. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:12 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
207. Neapolitan
10:12 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:
And Patrap is missing


Mystery explosion shatters windows, lights sky in Louisiana


The National Weather Service captured images of the staggering explosion on its Doppler Radar system, explains a report posted online. Based on radar analysis, the plume was initially as high as almost 7,200 feet above ground level.

The agency said the radar imagery is similar to that usually seen with smoke plumes associated with wildfires


What kind of a news organization slugs a misleadingly sensationalist headline breathlessly announcing a "mystery explosion" above a story that goes on to clearly state the exact location, time, and cause of that explosion?

Oh, wait--it's Fox? Why, they're not really a "news" organization at all, are they? Nevermind...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13803
206. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
10:09 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Please don't post every single frame this time, Keep.
it may be dropped this run anyway
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
205. LargoFl
10:08 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42261
204. LargoFl
10:07 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42261
203. LargoFl
10:05 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42261
202. LargoFl
10:03 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
GFS at 96 hours..............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42261
201. allancalderini
10:01 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
I am waiting to see if the 18z gfs brings Sandy and Tony.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42261
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42261
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Please don't post every single frame this time, Keep.



Why not? Are you offended somehow?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherbro:
Where's Tuesday's cold front that was promised for central Florida. Orlando was supposed to be sunny with dewpoints in the 40's. Instead the dewpoint has been hovering in the 60's ALL DAY under cloudy skies! Is this some kind of joke...

I sure hope this weekend ain't the same deal cause I'm sick and tired of the humidity!!!

Patience is key.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42261
OLD MAN WINTER IS SNEAKING IN LIL BY LIL...........URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
306 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2012

OKZ002-003-TXZ002>005-007>010-012>017-170415-
/O.NEW.KAMA.FR.Y.0004.121018T0600Z-121018T1500Z/
TEXAS-BEAVER-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB- MOORE-HUTCHINSON-
ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-POTTER-CARSON-GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GUYMON...BEAVER...FORGAN...STRATFORD...
SPEARMAN...GRUVER...PERRYTON...BOOKER...HIGGINS.. .FOLLETT...
DUMAS...BORGER...MIAMI...CANADIAN...AMARILLO...PA NHANDLE...
WHITE DEER...PAMPA...SHAMROCK...WHEELER...HEREFORD...CAN YON
306 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2012

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE.

* EVENT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
30S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND ALL BUT
THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.

* TIMING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING MID THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...VEGETATION SENSITIVE TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY SUSTAIN DAMAGE UNLESS PRECAUTIONS ARE TAKEN TO PROTECT
PLANTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OF 33 TO
36 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH AND
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDITIONS MAY OR MAY NOT CAUSE
FROST TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...SENSITIVE PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF
LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

CLK
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42261
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
18z running lets see what this run shows

Please don't post every single frame this time, Keep.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
Where's Tuesday's cold front that was promised for central Florida. Orlando was supposed to be sunny with dewpoints in the 40's. Instead the dewpoint has been hovering in the 60's ALL DAY under cloudy skies! Is this some kind of joke...

I sure hope this weekend ain't the same deal cause I'm sick and tired of the humidity!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm waiting for some comic relief. AKA the 18Z GFS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
We need to find that radar image of this event


BOOM



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18z running lets see what this run shows
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting Skyepony:
That GOES-13 test that ended a few hours ago did look promising:)) She's going back into operation!!! October 18, 2012 at 1445 UTC - Switch to GOES-13.


Topic: GOES-13 Return to Operational Service as GOES-East and GOES-14
Drift Stop Maneuver


Date/Time Issued: October 16, 2012 at 2038 UTC

Product(s) or Data Impacted: GOES-13 and GOES-14 Imager and Sounder
Data, GVAR Data

Date/Time of Initial Impact: October 18, 2012 at 1444 UTC - Switch to
GOES-13 initiated.

Date/Time of Expected End: October 18, 2012 at 1445 UTC - Switch to
GOES-13 completed.

Note: GOES-14 Drift Stop Maneuver will be executed October 19,
2012 at 1356 UTC

Length of Outage: See Details.

Details/Specifics of Change:
Tests of GOES-13 instrumentation have demonstrated the imager and
sounder are ready to return to GOES-East operational service. GOES-13
Imager data are nominal and thanks to outgassing activities the
noise in
GOES-13 Sounder shortwave data has been reduced compared to pre-anomaly
levels. The return of GOES-13 to operational service also optimizes
the
long term continuity of the GOES constellation.


On October 18, 2012 at 1444 UTC GOES-13 data will be inserted back into
the GOES-13 GVAR data stream, replacing the current GOES-14 data
stream.
Users do not need to repoint their antennas as the switch of GVAR data
streams will be transparent. Users will notice the immediate shift of
Earth coverage from the current GOES-14 drifting position to the
GOES-13
position at 75 degrees West longitude. GOES-East products will be
generated using GOES-13 and will receive nominal 24x7 monitoring. GINI
and Remapper output will be monitored to ensure nominal GOES-East
coverage of the CONUS for users of AWIPS and for users of the
SATEPSDIST
servers within ESPC. Products requiring a climatology of 30 days will
not be generated until the requisite number of fixed satellite location
days have passed:
- ASDTA SMOKE (Automated Smoke Detection and Tracking Algorithm)
- GASP (GOES Aerosol and Smoke Product)
- GEO-SST (No NETCDF format)
- GSIP-FD (GOES Surface Insolation Product-Full Disk)


RSO and SRSO schedules from GOES-13 will be available to the NWS
immediately after the switch is completed. A final stop maneuver of
GOES-14 will occur on October 19, 2012 at 1356 UTC placing it at a
position of 89.5 degrees West longitude where it will remain in standby

until further notice.


very good news and we get to have a backup in case again
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting RitaEvac:
Nice Deadmau5 image too


Thanks... yeah kind of a fan... XD


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Paul isn't looking so good right now... I doubt that changes any time soon...

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8047
186. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting RitaEvac:
And Patrap is missing


Mystery explosion shatters windows, lights sky in Louisiana


The National Weather Service captured images of the staggering explosion on its Doppler Radar system, explains a report posted online. Based on radar analysis, the plume was initially as high as almost 7,200 feet above ground level.

The agency said the radar imagery is similar to that usually seen with smoke plumes associated with wildfires




Was a massive explosion at ammunition recycling factory.

The 1/2hr frames of the WunderNEXRAD Archive misses it.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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