Hurricane Paul pounding Baja; Hurricane Rafael brushing Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on October 16, 2012

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Hurricane Paul put on an impressive burst of rapid intensification on Monday, topping out as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds at 2 pm PDT on Monday. Paul has weakened some this morning, due to high wind shear of 30 knots, but remains a potent Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds as it heads towards landfall this afternoon on the Baja Mexico coast. The 3006-passenger cruise ship Carnival Splendor made a daring run southeastwards along the Baja coast in front of Hurricane Paul, and encountered some very heavy weather this morning. At 2 am PDT, the vessel reported sustained winds of 54 mph and hail in a heavy squall located about 160 miles northeast of Paul's eye. Four hours later, at 6 am PDT, the ship was still measuring 54 mph winds, at point about 140 miles east of the eye and 40 miles northwest of the Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. The winds were measured on top of the ship, at an altitude more than 100 feet above the standard 10 meter (32.8') altitude used to report winds. If you know of a passenger who was on the ship, tell them to upload a wunderphoto and a report of what is was like! The view from the deck webcam shows that not too many passengers were out taking wunderphotos this morning, though.

Since the region of coast where Paul will hit is very sparsely populated, heavy rains will be the main threat from the storm. Cabo San Lucas has picked up 2.23" of rain from Paul as of 7 am PDT this morning, and San Jose Del Cabo picked up 2.00". Neither city is expected to get tropical storm-force winds from Paul, according to the latest wind probability forecast from NHC. Paul's formation brings this year's tally in the Eastern Pacific to 16 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. An average Eastern Pacific season has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Paul taken at 2:15 pm EDT Monday, October 15, 2012. At the time, Paul was peaking in intensity--a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Rafael becomes a hurricane
Hurricane Rafael became the ninth hurricane of this busy 2012 Atlantic hurricane season on Monday afternoon. Data from the Hurricane Hunters and satellite loops show that Rafael is holding its own against high wind shear near 30 knots. Rafael has even managed to intensify slightly this morning, to a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, as it heads north-northeast on a path that is expected to take the center about 140 miles east of Bermuda near 8 pm EDT this Tuesday night. Images from the Bermuda radar show that the outer spiral bands of Rafael have reached the island, and very heavy rains lie just to Bermuda's south. Wind shear is expected to increase to an extremely high 40 knots on Wednesday, which should be able to weaken Rafael to a tropical storm. The 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 44% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds from Rafael. The models are pretty tightly clustered showing a track for Rafael to the east of Bermuda, putting the island on the weaker (left front) side of the storm.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Rafael taken at 11:55 am EDT Monday, October 15, 2012. At the time, Rafael was intensifying, with top winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Possible Caribbean development next week
Most of the models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Southwest Caribbean Sea off the coast of Nicaragua by the middle of next week. It's too early speculate on where such a storm might go, but residents of Central America, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should anticipate the possibility of a multi-day period of very heavy rains affecting them late next week, even if a tropical depression does not form.


Figure 3. I couldn't resist reposting this image: a coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 8, 2012, sparking a dramatic display of Northern Lights that lasted for several days. The aurora combined with clouds to create this remarkable scene over Lekangsund, Norway, on Oct. 10, 2012, as captured by Hugo Løhre. Larger versions of the image are available at nasa.gov.

Jeff Masters

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336. Skyepony (Mod)
Anais should make landfall as a tropical Storm.
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Rafael seems to be in the process of transitioning into a more non-tropical entity. The majority of the convection is shifting to the northern quadrant as it begins to interact with an upper-level low and cold front, but it is also due to strong southwesterly wind shear.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32260
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Rafael:

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Rafael has surrendered to shear and is weakening. He should turn extra-tropical in a few days. Bermuda should still get tropical storm conditions from Rafael and in 5-7 days the Azores could get something again.


Also this weekend is a big one, UoM vs MSU at the big house. Right now it looks like the weather should be cool and nice for the game.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I love onion rings.

Serve them at my work all the time.
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6.7 kilometers deep is relatively shallow, but not unusually so.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Of course, headlines are very often written by a local editor or copy editor, not by the wire service providing the story. At any rate, Fox has earned itself the the reputation of being the most misleading of all the major news outlets. Inaccurate and sensationalist headlines such as the one they selected for the explosion story are part of the reason they've earned that rep.

Fox is on the far right.
All other news that I know of are far left.
Wish there was a news agency that reported the news without an agenda.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I love onion rings.


idk why these types of tropical cyclones are my favorite.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
So I see the GFS is still on for development in the Western Caribbean and that it kills the EPAC storm which tells me the steering currents will be from Southwest to Northeast over the EPAC and the Western Caribbean.


which means big problem for me or us here in the Cayman Islands

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Wow one of the 18z GFS ENSEMBLE


you know make that a big problem
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12147
are any of you going too buy window 8 next friday or PC or window 8 tablet?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I love onion rings.


I was thinking more of a doughnut, but that would be a big doughnut hole. That is better than Paul, who is next to nothing and likely weaker than 70mph.
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I love onion rings.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32260
ALmost like a cage match, the debate!
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So you think you are having a bad day...

Via NBC...
High drama on the San Francisco Bay Tuesday afternoon after an Oracle Team USA boat AC72 capsized while practicing for the America's Cup race.

The catamaran is a massive vessel with the hull alone weighing 13,000 pounds.

It's mast is 131.2 feet high which is the height of a 13 story building.

The capsize turned into an overturn by 4:30 p.m. when the boat turned upside down. Tow boats did not seem to be making much progress as the boat, which appeared to be breaking apart, was sucked out past the Golden Gate.

The wing of the ship was severely damaged. It appeared to break away from the boat just before 5 p.m. It was breaking into parts a few minutes later.

Four or five crew members were on the boat, but it wasn't clear what they were trying to do. There were dozens of pieces of the boat floating nearby.

So far the Coast Guard has not been called in to help, the rescue effort is a private one being done by America's Cup people.

The good news is that no one was injured when the boat capsized.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
Wow one of the 18z GFS ENSEMBLE
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4672
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Perhaps leading to the biggest doom event come 12/21/12.Lol ;).
Please don`t say that I just want to pass that day without any bad things happening.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4401
0z ATCF keeps Rafael at 75kts.

AL, 17, 2012101700, , BEST, 0, 315N, 631W, 75, 969, HU
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7835
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

We've got a few struggling with shear tonight. Paul certainly doesn't appear to be having a fun time of it:



And Prapiroon's looking a little empty inside:


Rafael has peaked and shear/cooler waters are starting to take their toll on him.
Paul is really weakening and disorganized.
Prapiroon looks hungry for convection.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Of course, headlines are very often written by a local editor or copy editor, not by the wire service providing the story. At any rate, Fox has earned itself the the reputation of being the most misleading of all the major news outlets. Inaccurate and sensationalist headlines such as the one they selected for the explosion story are part of the reason they've earned that rep.
THIS IS TOTAL BS!!!!!!
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Quoting evilpenguinshan:
Easy on the Kool-aid, buddy.

winky thing.

anywho.
Rafael gettin sheared apart, it would seem.




We've got a few struggling with shear tonight. Paul certainly doesn't appear to be having a fun time of it:



And Prapiroon's looking a little empty inside:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7835
Quoting GTcooliebai:
That Doom started since 2004 when we had a wild year with hurricanes here in FL. and then at the end of the year with the Tsunami in Indonesia. Ever since then there have been a frequent number of major catastrophic events.
Perhaps leading to the biggest doom event come 12/21/12.Lol ;).
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They've actually downgraded the magnitude by quite a bit- now a 4.0 instead of a 4.6.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7835
Easy on the Kool-aid, buddy.

winky thing.

anywho.
Rafael gettin sheared apart, it would seem.



Quoting PensacolaDoug:


You are delusional.

No winky thing.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
It's doom all over the place I tell ya!.Doom!.Must have something to do with G__.Anyway getting hit with a earthqauke and then a hurricane to follow was very weird and I'm sure I'll never experience nothing like it for the rest of my life.Luckly none were very server for my area Virgina can not say the same...
That Doom started since 2004 when we had a wild year with hurricanes here in FL. and then at the end of the year with the Tsunami in Indonesia. Ever since then there have been a frequent number of major catastrophic events.
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Isn't the Maine one a bit shallow for an earthquake? 6.7 kilometers down.

The USGS downgraded it to a 4.0 too.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

We felt it in my house... no damage or anything like that (I don't know about closer to the epicenter but I can't imagine it's too significant with a 4.6), it wasn't a violent shaking, but it definitely felt weird... this is the first one I've felt. Some people here felt the one in the DC area last summer but just about everyone up here felt this one.


Eeek, thing is, ok, 4.6 not bad...but when shallow, in a place not designed for seismic activity, can do quite a bit of damage! UK had one on the southern end of England a few years back about the same, and did quite a bit of damage being everything is brick and stone built.

I know bigger ones can happen anywhere from mid-shelf strain and all...but it still surprises me when one does!

Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 845
Quoting LostTomorrows:


Wrong-way Lenny's niece?

The little popup of moisture in the Gulf of Honduras area catches my eye. Just a blobservation.

I think Rafael is finally succumbing a bit to the shear, I wonder how much longer he will last now that there are holes in his circulation?
Blobservation is my favorite new word I have seen in a long time. Nice work.
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So I see the GFS is still on for development in the Western Caribbean and that it kills the EPAC storm which tells me the steering currents will be from Southwest to Northeast over the EPAC and the Western Caribbean.

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.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Same people that made a big deal of the "BIG" eyeball found on Pompano Beach


The same people that made a big deal out of 4 dead Americans and our government lying about it when no other news org would.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, but I imagine some people may not like having to scroll down tens of posts of model frame after model frame. It probably also slows the page load time down too.


I know I only speak for myself, but just want to say, because I have slow internet, and very limited being I only have a mobile dongle (not sure what the US equivalent is, cell phone usb attachment that I get internet through cell phone connection LOL) I actually 'like' everyone putting on maps. Can be slow to load, but much better than trying to visit all those site myself with a wonky connection. But, obvs not everyone, even with a limited connection like mine, would agree. I sometimes scroll past, but at least they are there, and all here in one place, when in the mood to study them. I def don't want everyone to think everyone with a bad connection would hate them though, for some it's more helpful, from everyone that posts maps. And I thank you all for doing it really.
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 845
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Halloween is back on for south Fla.! My dog is very happy she can go out trick or treating! She worked hard on her costume...




One thing the UK surely lacks...proper Halloween! Been more popular the last few years, but still nowhere near like good ol' American Halloween! I feel I've deprived my daughter in that area by living here for sure! LOL
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 845
Quoting washingtonian115:
It's doom all over the place I tell ya!.Doom!.Must have something to do with G__.Anyway getting hit with a earthqauke and then a hurricane to follow was very weird and I'm sure I'll never experience nothing like it for the rest of my life.Luckly none were very server for my area Virgina can not say the same...

I remember that!!!!! a lot of people around here ran to their basement bcause they were thinking a bomb blew up...... My first earthquake... never will forget it :p
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Quoting ncstorm:


its definitely looking like a correlation between the two..hurricanes and earthquakes..
Earthqaukes can also be warning signs for tsunami's,volcano eruptions and such.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

There was, a 5.5, quite a bit larger than the one here but much deeper. I doubt the NZ one was widely felt.


thank you!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
Quoting ncstorm:
I heard there was an earthquake in New Zealand too? can anyone confirm that?

There was, a 5.5, quite a bit larger than the one here but much deeper. I doubt the NZ one was widely felt.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7835
Quoting washingtonian115:
It's doom all over the place I tell ya!.Doom!.Must have something to do with G__.Anyway getting hit with a earthqauke and then a hurricane to follow was very weird and I'm sure I'll never experience nothing like it for the rest of my life.Luckly none were very server for my area Virgina can not say the sam...


its definitely looking like a correlation between the two..hurricanes and earthquakes..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
Quoting ncstorm:
When Irene struck, earthquake in Virginia/DC, When Leslie became a hurricane, earthquake in Costa Rica, When Issac became a hurricane, earthquake in CA, When Rafael became a hurricane, an earthquake in Maine..
It's doom all over the place I tell ya!.Doom!.Must have something to do with G__.Anyway getting hit with a earthqauke and then a hurricane to follow was very weird and I'm sure I'll never experience nothing like it for the rest of my life.Luckly none were very server for my area Virgina can not say the same...
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Good night all. It's pouring on the outside and rain is in the forecast for tomorrow as well. Besides the complaint about flooding in some areas over the weekend most people enjoyed the showers brought by TS Rafael, myself included.It was just a great time for rest and relaxation.
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When Irene struck, earthquake in Virginia/DC, When Leslie became a hurricane, earthquake in Costa Rica, When Issac became a hurricane, earthquake in CA, When Rafael became a hurricane, an earthquake in Maine..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
291. JLPR2
That was one crazy run.



Though it isn't the first time the GFS has shown it moving east, I think it is the second time.

But I believe it will switch back to its NE movement in the next run.
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
800 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING IN BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 63.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32260
I heard there was an earthquake in New Zealand too? can anyone confirm that?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15666
Since T.C conditions have not bee good in the caribbean this year I think a T.S or Ida type situation is possible.But a Mitch,Wilma,Lenny or Paloma type storm doesn't seem in the cards.Of course anything could happen.
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012

...PAUL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 112.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32260
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
If the GFS run pans out, it seems as if we will have a storm form in the WCAR and brush Cuba until it runs staight into Hati and keeps going toward PR.
Unbelievable.


Wrong-way Lenny's niece?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
So far, so good :)...



The little popup of moisture in the Gulf of Honduras area catches my eye. Just a blobservation.

I think Rafael is finally succumbing a bit to the shear, I wonder how much longer he will last now that there are holes in his circulation?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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