Hurricane Paul pounding Baja; Hurricane Rafael brushing Bermuda

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:06 PM GMT on October 16, 2012

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Hurricane Paul put on an impressive burst of rapid intensification on Monday, topping out as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds at 2 pm PDT on Monday. Paul has weakened some this morning, due to high wind shear of 30 knots, but remains a potent Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds as it heads towards landfall this afternoon on the Baja Mexico coast. The 3006-passenger cruise ship Carnival Splendor made a daring run southeastwards along the Baja coast in front of Hurricane Paul, and encountered some very heavy weather this morning. At 2 am PDT, the vessel reported sustained winds of 54 mph and hail in a heavy squall located about 160 miles northeast of Paul's eye. Four hours later, at 6 am PDT, the ship was still measuring 54 mph winds, at point about 140 miles east of the eye and 40 miles northwest of the Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. The winds were measured on top of the ship, at an altitude more than 100 feet above the standard 10 meter (32.8') altitude used to report winds. If you know of a passenger who was on the ship, tell them to upload a wunderphoto and a report of what is was like! The view from the deck webcam shows that not too many passengers were out taking wunderphotos this morning, though.

Since the region of coast where Paul will hit is very sparsely populated, heavy rains will be the main threat from the storm. Cabo San Lucas has picked up 2.23" of rain from Paul as of 7 am PDT this morning, and San Jose Del Cabo picked up 2.00". Neither city is expected to get tropical storm-force winds from Paul, according to the latest wind probability forecast from NHC. Paul's formation brings this year's tally in the Eastern Pacific to 16 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. An average Eastern Pacific season has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Paul taken at 2:15 pm EDT Monday, October 15, 2012. At the time, Paul was peaking in intensity--a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Rafael becomes a hurricane
Hurricane Rafael became the ninth hurricane of this busy 2012 Atlantic hurricane season on Monday afternoon. Data from the Hurricane Hunters and satellite loops show that Rafael is holding its own against high wind shear near 30 knots. Rafael has even managed to intensify slightly this morning, to a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, as it heads north-northeast on a path that is expected to take the center about 140 miles east of Bermuda near 8 pm EDT this Tuesday night. Images from the Bermuda radar show that the outer spiral bands of Rafael have reached the island, and very heavy rains lie just to Bermuda's south. Wind shear is expected to increase to an extremely high 40 knots on Wednesday, which should be able to weaken Rafael to a tropical storm. The 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 44% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds from Rafael. The models are pretty tightly clustered showing a track for Rafael to the east of Bermuda, putting the island on the weaker (left front) side of the storm.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Rafael taken at 11:55 am EDT Monday, October 15, 2012. At the time, Rafael was intensifying, with top winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Possible Caribbean development next week
Most of the models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Southwest Caribbean Sea off the coast of Nicaragua by the middle of next week. It's too early speculate on where such a storm might go, but residents of Central America, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should anticipate the possibility of a multi-day period of very heavy rains affecting them late next week, even if a tropical depression does not form.


Figure 3. I couldn't resist reposting this image: a coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 8, 2012, sparking a dramatic display of Northern Lights that lasted for several days. The aurora combined with clouds to create this remarkable scene over Lekangsund, Norway, on Oct. 10, 2012, as captured by Hugo Løhre. Larger versions of the image are available at nasa.gov.

Jeff Masters

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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
Quoting GTcooliebai:
The system in the Western Caribbean could be an EPAC crossover.

I think it is just the monsoon trough combined with lowering pressures. The GFS develops an epac system for similar reasons. With a strong mjo pulse, high TCHP ans SST values, and lower shear a system could really get going.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
The system in the Western Caribbean could be an EPAC crossover.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
545 verses 300,000,000...... Term limits in the Senate and Congress would give the USA back to its citizens. Looks like 2012 will end being another unique season.
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To put things into perspective, we've had 55 named storms during the last three seasons (2010-2012). Out of those, only seven have hit the United States, and only two were of hurricane intensity (Irene and Isaac). There have been no major hurricanes during this period. That is absurd.

For comparison, the most active three year period in terms of number of named storms was 2003-2005, where we had 59 storms. A total of 18 storms hit the United States during that era (17 if you want to exclude Henri in 2003, since it made landfall as a tropical depression), including 12 hurricanes and 7 major hurricanes.

Even considering that the recent numbers might be inflated somewhat due to better observational data (scatterometer and satellite) relative to the past, and even supposing the 2003-2005 period was an anomaly (which it clearly was), we should have still at least fallen in between the two compared periods.

The more I think about it, the more I realize that this is truly unprecedented. And at the moment, there is no clear explanation.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Same here, I get the timing issue though, and I have good understanding as to why every Category 3 has either weakened or steered away from us, timing. However, it's amazing that instead if monster Category 3 hurricanes, we're getting equally as powerful Category 1 hurricanes. This all reverts back to my belief that the SSHS is turning into a somewhat bogus system these days, it has its strengths and has a clear definition between categories and is a useful tool developed by a very, very smart meteorologist, but it focuses too much on wind and not enough on the real issue - storm surge. I feel like a broken record but after Ike, Irene, and Isaac I feel it needs to be repeated. An Enhanced SSHS scale is needed.

I agree on that an enhanced scale needs to be introduced. There are problems with the current scale that do need to be fixed. In late September I went as far as to make my own scale, Link.
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.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
Quoting KoritheMan:


You will never hear me say that. Ever. I am an evidential person, not a conspiracy theorist.


Same here, I get the timing issue though, and I have good understanding as to why every Category 3 has either weakened or steered away from us, timing. However, it's amazing that instead if monster Category 3 hurricanes, we're getting equally as powerful Category 1 hurricanes. This all reverts back to my belief that the SSHS is turning into a somewhat bogus system these days, it has its strengths and has a clear definition between categories and is a useful tool developed by a very, very smart meteorologist, but it focuses too much on wind and not enough on the real issue - storm surge. I feel like a broken record but after Ike, Irene, and Isaac I feel it needs to be repeated. An Enhanced SSHS scale is needed.
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Quoting Grothar:



Has anybody posted the 11:00 PM NHC advisory yet?




this go too the nhc site an you see it there no one needs too post it 500 times on the main blog
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Of course we will never hear you say it, unless we can now hear each other when we blog/chat;)

Seriously though, research should be done on what has been causing the lack of US hurricane landfalls. There are probably multiple things going on that are causing it or it could just be nature, we don't really know.


This pattern wasn't even in place during the pre-satellite era.

We've been keeping records for what, 160 years? And this pattern has been literally unprecedented during that entire period.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


You will never hear me say that. Ever. I am an evidential person, not a conspiracy theorist.

Of course we will never hear you say it, unless we can now hear each other when we blog/chat;)

Seriously though, research should be done on what has been causing the lack of US hurricane landfalls. There are probably multiple things going on that are causing it or it could just be nature, we don't really know.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


If we don't get a major hurricane landfall in the next two years, I might actually against my better judgement consider the possibility that some sort of seeding effort in underway without our knowledge. Silly, I know. But if we go 10 years without a major hurricane hitting the United States I won't know what to say.


You will never hear me say that. Ever. I am an evidential person, not a conspiracy theorist.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Maybe there is a magic barrier that now protects the US. I still think it is possible Sandy(or Tony) could hit the US as a hurricane. Track can't be decided until the storm actually forms. All we know is conditions will be favorable and it is likely a storm will form.

Tigers win again, game 4 tomorrow!


Seriously. I don't care at this point if a hurricane fails to hit the US ever again; if I have to, I'll go outside the states to chase a hurricane.

I'm more interested in the implications of this from a scientific standpoint. Why is this occurring? What sort of mechanisms are at play that are making things continually play out this way? As I said, the PDO doesn't tell the whole story, and the Texas drought, while no doubt exacerbating this pattern, is also not entirely to blame. I have (and continue to) theorized that anthropogenic global warming may be causing this, but as far as I know there have been no formal studies linking human-induced climate change to large-scale fluctuations in the jet stream.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I see the 12 and 18z GFS runs have trended with an out to sea scenario with our potential Sandy. Not that I'm saying that's bad, necessarily, but... damn. What's with this seemingly magical barrier over the lower 48 that hurricanes just can't seem to penetrate lately? A lot of storms seem to try every year, but few ever actually make it. I seriously don't understand it. Levi blames the PDO, but that doesn't tell the whole story, as the PDO was cold during the 50s, 60s, and 70s, and we still had more landfalls than we do now (not to mention Texas was firmly entrenched in a drought in the 1950s when those landfalls occurred, so I don't think that fully explains it either).
I think this is where a micro-climate change comes into play. There could be a correlation with the loss of Arctic Sea Ice that is causing stronger troughs to set up along the East Coast, but this is just my speculation with not much research done.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Quoting Autistic2:

Fox is on the far right.
All other news that I know of are far left.
Wish there was a news agency that reported the news without an agenda.



Link


Well done grasshopper :)
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I see the 12 and 18z GFS runs have trended with an out to sea scenario with our potential Sandy. Not that I'm saying that's bad, necessarily, but... damn. What's with this seemingly magical barrier over the lower 48 that hurricanes just can't seem to penetrate lately? A lot of storms seem to try every year, but few ever actually make it. I seriously don't understand it. Levi blames the PDO, but that doesn't tell the whole story, as the PDO was cold during the 50s, 60s, and 70s, and we still had more landfalls than we do now (not to mention Texas was firmly entrenched in a drought in the 1950s when those landfalls occurred, so I don't think that fully explains it either).


If we don't get a major hurricane landfall in the next two years, I might actually against my better judgement consider the possibility that some sort of seeding effort in underway without our knowledge. Silly, I know. But if we go 10 years without a major hurricane hitting the United States I won't know what to say.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
I see the 12 and 18z GFS runs have trended with an out to sea scenario with our potential Sandy. Not that I'm saying that's bad, necessarily, but... damn. What's with this seemingly magical barrier over the lower 48 that hurricanes just can't seem to penetrate? A lot of storms seem to try every year, but few ever actually make it. I seriously don't understand it. Levi blames the PDO, but that doesn't tell the whole story, as the PDO was cold during the 50s, 60s, and 70s, and we still had more landfalls than we do now (not to mention Texas was firmly entrenched in a drought in the 1950s when those landfalls occurred, so I don't think that fully explains it either).

Maybe there is a magic barrier that now protects the US. I still think it is possible Sandy(or Tony) could hit the US as a hurricane. Track can't be decided until the storm actually forms. All we know is conditions will be favorable and it is likely a storm will form.

Tigers win again, game 4 tomorrow!
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Keeper your of the chain.
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I see the 12 and 18z GFS runs have trended with an out to sea scenario with our potential Sandy. Not that I'm saying that's bad, necessarily, but... damn. What's with this seemingly magical barrier over the lower 48 that hurricanes just can't seem to penetrate lately? A lot of storms seem to try every year, but few ever actually make it. I seriously don't understand it. Levi blames the PDO, but that doesn't tell the whole story, as the PDO was cold during the 50s, 60s, and 70s, and we still had more landfalls than we do now (not to mention Texas was firmly entrenched in a drought in the 1950s when those landfalls occurred, so I don't think that fully explains it either).
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Quoting Autistic2:

Fox is on the far right.
All other news that I know of are far left.
Wish there was a news agency that reported the news without an agenda.



Link
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
Quoting ncstorm:


its definitely looking like a correlation between the two..hurricanes and earthquakes..

Coming into this discussion late as usual. Posting for the record only; don't actually expect any of the OP's to see this. Otherwise known as preaching to the empty pews.

First thing a budding scientist-in-training learns is that correlation does NOT imply causality. And anyone who forgets this important principle doesn't last long in science.

Given the huge number of earthquakes that occur daily, how could there NOT be a "correlation" with some hurricane somewhere? But what about all of those other quakes? The ones that do NOT match up with a hurricane in time and space. How do you explain the LACK of correlation with those? And remember, there are lots more uncorrelated quakes than there are "correlated" quakes. So you've got lots of 'splainin' to do, my friends.

So you can cherry-pick the data all you want. But in the end, all you will have is... cherries. ;)
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Neat!



The Azores are the new CONUS this year haha.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Wow one of the 18z GFS ENSEMBLE

DOOM!!!!
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Neat!

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Well, now that I haven't seen the advisory 4 times..... lol I gotta go to bed... Hopefully I'll get a chance to look in during the day tomorrow.
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Does anybody have a link to where one could get the latest NHC advisory 5 or 6 times.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Anais should make landfall as a tropical Storm.
Wow... I didn't think it would make it that far west.... amazing to have a major that early, and then have it hit something too???

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Quoting Autistic2:

Fox is on the far right.
All other news that I know of are far left.
Wish there was a news agency that reported the news without an agenda.
CNN is NOT on the far left. That is a myth.

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Quoting Grothar:



Has anybody posted the 11:00 PM NHC advisory yet?
Actually, I haven't seen it yet... should I go pull it for you???
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:


The same people that made a big deal out of 4 dead Americans and our government lying about it when no other news org would.
Since you opened the can, I think tonight's debate was a much better debate than the first one... a lot more fun to watch.

On a weather note, was it possible that President Obama was suffering from altitude sickness last time? Somebody mentioned that he flew to Denver 3 hours before the debate. I do know [from personal experience] that it's better to make a more gradual approach to that fine city. Otherwise one would be wise to give yourself time to get acclimatized. That would certainly explained the dazed look and the frowning...

[But would that be weather or climate?]
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350. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting Skyepony:
Anais should make landfall as a tropical Storm.


Mauritius doesn't even make it a tropical depression before encountering Madagascar
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349. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ANAIS (01-20122013)
4:30 AM RET October 17 2012
==========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Anais (997 hPa) located at 15.0S 58.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/3.0/W1.0/12 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 40 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 15.9S 54.9E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)
48 HRS: 16.6S 51.7E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
======================

Convection has still decreased and now is totally rejected in the southeastern quadrant of the system. Anais is penetrating in the strong northwesterly wind shear area and is rapidly weakening.

Available numerical guidance are in good agreement for the forecast track. Anais should remain under the steering influence of a low to mid-level ridge located in the southeast and so should follow a west southwestward track.

Environmental conditions are very unfavorable (strong northwesterly wind shear and sea surface temperature too fresh) and Anais should lose tropical storm status within the next hours and dissipate Friday in the vicinity of eastern coasts of Madagascar.
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Quoting Grothar:



Has anybody posted the 11:00 PM NHC advisory yet?

Maybe, but if so I still think we need to see it again;)
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Quoting Grothar:



Has anybody posted the 11:00 PM NHC advisory yet?
i havn't seen it yet
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
Quoting clamshell:


Wow.

A regular Bojangles, yessiree.

You get three gold stars for that tap dance.




<
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858



Has anybody posted the 11:00 PM NHC advisory yet?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26889
HURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATED
THAT RAFAEL WAS MORE OR LESS MAINTINING ITS INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH
THE CYCLONE WAS BECOMING TILTED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT.
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE HELD AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THE
TILT OF THE VORTEX SUGGESTS THAT WEAKENING WILL SOON OCCUR. COOLER
WATERS LIE AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD ALSO INDUCE
WEAKENING. THE LATEST GFS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS RAFAEL BECOMING
EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE BY 36 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT TIME.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT ABOVE THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 24 HOURS...BASED ON THE PRESUMPTION
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SOON BE DERIVING SOME ENERGY FROM BAROCLINIC
SOURCES.

RAFAEL CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
NOW 030/25. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS BASICALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. RAFAEL OR ITS POST-TROPICAL
COUNTERPART SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE IN THE FLOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...POST-TROPICAL RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND
ROTATE CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS
PREDICTION...AS WELL AS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 32.4N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 36.2N 59.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 40.9N 54.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 44.9N 46.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 19/0000Z 48.5N 36.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/0000Z 53.5N 31.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/0000Z 49.0N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/0000Z 43.0N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

...RAFAEL BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 62.5W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RAFAEL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND RAFAEL COULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE
WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN BERMUDA WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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...PAUL WEAKENING RAPIDLY...
8:00 PM PDT Tue Oct 16
Location: 25.6N 112.7W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

...RAFAEL BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
11:00 PM AST Tue Oct 16
Location: 32.4N 62.5W
Moving: NNE at 29 mph
Min pressure: 970 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph
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TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012

VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS WITH PAUL...AND THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...PAUL IS STILL PRODUCING SOME
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION CLOSER TO ITS CENTER. THERE HAS BEEN NO
GROUND TRUTH TO ESTIMATE THE INTENSITY OF PAUL...AND DVORAK
ESTIMATES ARE SLOW TO COME DOWN DUE TO CONSTRAINTS. GIVEN THE
CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 50 KT
IS ESTIMATED BY ASSUMING A FAIRLY QUICK RATE OF DECAY.

PAUL HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN AND IS MOVING PARALLEL TO THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH A MOTION OF 350/10 KT. THE
TROPICAL STORM HAS BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF A
CUT-OFF LOW LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND PAUL IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
CUT-OFF LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE NEW SUITE OF TRACK
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER OF PAUL JUST GRAZING THE COAST AND BARELY
MOVING INLAND...IF AT ALL...SO THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS.

STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AFFECTING PAUL DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SO RAPID
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
DECAY SHOWN BY THE DSHIPS AND LGEM MODELS AND SHOWS PAUL WEAKENING
BELOW TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS. THE REMNANT
LOW SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA BY 48 HOURS AS ADVERTISED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 25.6N 112.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 26.9N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 18/0000Z 28.0N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1200Z 29.0N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012

...PAUL WEAKENING RAPIDLY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 112.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM WSW OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* SANTA FE TO EL POCITO
* SAN EVARISTO TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST. PAUL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD
TURN ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL WILL
MOVE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PAUL SHOULD THEN MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND PAUL IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH ON WEDNESDAY.
PAUL SHOULD ALSO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND DISSIPATE ON
THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA AND SHOULD
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PAUL. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SINALOA FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
not marh lift of PAUL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
Of course, headlines are very often written by a local editor or copy editor, not by the wire service providing the story. At any rate, Fox has earned itself the the reputation of being the most misleading of all the major news outlets. Inaccurate and sensationalist headlines such as the one they selected for the explosion story are part of the reason they've earned that rep.


Wow.

A regular Bojangles, yessiree.

You get three gold stars for that tap dance.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
336. Skyepony (Mod)
Anais should make landfall as a tropical Storm.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38684

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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