Hurricane Paul pounding Baja; Hurricane Rafael brushing Bermuda
Hurricane Paul put on an impressive burst of rapid intensification on Monday, topping out as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds at 2 pm PDT on Monday. Paul has weakened some this morning, due to high wind shear of 30 knots, but remains a potent Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds as it heads towards landfall this afternoon on the Baja Mexico coast. The 3006-passenger cruise ship Carnival Splendor made a daring run southeastwards along the Baja coast in front of Hurricane Paul, and encountered some very heavy weather this morning. At 2 am PDT, the vessel reported sustained winds of 54 mph and hail in a heavy squall located about 160 miles northeast of Paul's eye. Four hours later, at 6 am PDT, the ship was still measuring 54 mph winds, at point about 140 miles east of the eye and 40 miles northwest of the Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. The winds were measured on top of the ship, at an altitude more than 100 feet above the standard 10 meter (32.8') altitude used to report winds. If you know of a passenger who was on the ship, tell them to upload a wunderphoto and a report of what is was like! The view from the deck webcam shows that not too many passengers were out taking wunderphotos this morning, though.
Since the region of coast where Paul will hit is very sparsely populated, heavy rains will be the main threat from the storm. Cabo San Lucas has picked up 2.23" of rain from Paul as of 7 am PDT this morning, and San Jose Del Cabo picked up 2.00". Neither city is expected to get tropical storm-force winds from Paul, according to the latest wind probability forecast from NHC. Paul's formation brings this year's tally in the Eastern Pacific to 16 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. An average Eastern Pacific season has 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Paul taken at 2:15 pm EDT Monday, October 15, 2012. At the time, Paul was peaking in intensity--a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Rafael becomes a hurricane
Hurricane Rafael became the ninth hurricane of this busy 2012 Atlantic hurricane season on Monday afternoon. Data from the Hurricane Hunters and satellite loops show that Rafael is holding its own against high wind shear near 30 knots. Rafael has even managed to intensify slightly this morning, to a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds, as it heads north-northeast on a path that is expected to take the center about 140 miles east of Bermuda near 8 pm EDT this Tuesday night. Images from the Bermuda radar show that the outer spiral bands of Rafael have reached the island, and very heavy rains lie just to Bermuda's south. Wind shear is expected to increase to an extremely high 40 knots on Wednesday, which should be able to weaken Rafael to a tropical storm. The 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 44% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds from Rafael. The models are pretty tightly clustered showing a track for Rafael to the east of Bermuda, putting the island on the weaker (left front) side of the storm.
Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Rafael taken at 11:55 am EDT Monday, October 15, 2012. At the time, Rafael was intensifying, with top winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.
Possible Caribbean development next week
Most of the models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Southwest Caribbean Sea off the coast of Nicaragua by the middle of next week. It's too early speculate on where such a storm might go, but residents of Central America, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should anticipate the possibility of a multi-day period of very heavy rains affecting them late next week, even if a tropical depression does not form.
Figure 3. I couldn't resist reposting this image: a coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 8, 2012, sparking a dramatic display of Northern Lights that lasted for several days. The aurora combined with clouds to create this remarkable scene over Lekangsund, Norway, on Oct. 10, 2012, as captured by Hugo Løhre. Larger versions of the image are available at nasa.gov.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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With decreasing subsurface temperatures from the east pacific and decreasing westerly anomalies I'm getting the impression we're about to see a shift back towards cooler than normal SSTs in the pacific.
Unfortunately, the Nino 3.4 consensus says about the same thing:
Just in time for summer.
EDIT: Those error bars are pretty big though.
I think Chantal will be the big one next year. Something about that name just doesn't sit well with me (could be due to that being my mother's middle name, when she caused a lot of division in my family :P).
That really was a great idea there, and it should be thrust into the limelight because the Saffer-Simpson HS needs a good retooling. Tropical cyclones, in this basin especially, seem to be evolving to suit the changing climate within the Atlantic.
And I'm very interested to know what kind of damage was done to Bermuda by Rafael. Leslie was one of the more damaging storms there (still didn't do much, but still more than most storms that brush by) since the infamous Fabian, and Rafael was more powerful, but both were large and intense cyclones at their time of passing.
Couldna been much.
At its closest approach, Rafael's center was ~109miles(175kilometres) away from Bermuda
I got a 4.6 quake at 722 last night...
yes shallow very shallow. We still felt it though...
And check out that massive trough in the east by 348:
It forms first starting in 168 hours a Lenny type system that moves over PR from the Central Caribbean and then a crossover from EPAC forms the other one you describe.
Link
You know they will show future development. It's simple inconsistency and model uncertainty, so I wouldn't make a conclusion yet.
If you see the 06z loop I posted on post #421 it develops two,one starting at 168 hours and the other a crossover from EPAC on long range.
TROPICAL STORM PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
500 AM PDT WED OCT 17 2012
...CENTER OF PAUL REMAINS CLOSE TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL
SUR...
...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 113.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WNW OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* SANTA FE TO EL POCITO
* SAN EVARISTO TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST. PAUL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL WILL MOVE ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN
MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND PAUL SHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY
TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...
220 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...
AND SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA LATER TODAY.
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PAUL. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SINALOA FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
LOL I know! It is so dark in the mornings now with the days getting shorter and today with the clouds it is very dark still but....daylight savings time ends Sunday November 4, 2:00am...
Just relaying what the SPC thinks.
Keep on keepin' on....all we do is discuss, not set forecasts. I don't understand some people on here wanting to call b.s. all the time...Jeez
#NOAA42 watches the sunset under the CDO of #Rafael 10/15/2012
Viewing: 401 - 436
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