September 2012: Earth's warmest September on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:01 PM GMT on October 15, 2012

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September 2012 was tied with 2005 as the globe's warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Global temperature records begin in 1880. NASA rated September 2012 the 4th warmest September on record. September 2012 global land temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record. September 2012 was the 331st consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time Earth had a below-average September global temperature was in 1976, and the last below-average month of any kind was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in September 2012 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 5th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of September 2012 in his September 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2012, which tied 2005 as the warmest September on record. Parts of east central Russia observed record warmth, as did parts of Venezuela, French Guinea, and northern Brazil. Nearly all of South America was much warmer than average, as were western Australia and central to eastern Europe. Far eastern Russia, a few regions in southern Africa, and parts of China were cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch continues
Neutral El Niño conditions exist in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were 0.1°C above average as of October 15. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has issued an El Niño watch, and gives a 55% chance that an El Niño event will be in place during the October - November - December period. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C above average or warmer to be considered an El Niño. El Niño conditions tend to bring cooler and wetter winter weather to the Southern U.S.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in September 2012 was the lowest measured, since satellite records began in 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Arctic sea ice falls to lowest extent on record in September
Arctic sea ice extent during September reached its lowest extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). As of October 14, Arctic sea extent had set a new record low for the date every day since July 27. I have much more to say about this year's extraordinary loss of Arctic sea ice in my September 20, 2012 post, Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low.

Jeff Masters

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630. mitthbevnuruodo
3:44 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:

HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT PAUL WAS MOVING TOWARD BAJA
CALIFORNIA FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND THAT PROMPTED AN
SPECIAL ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE
INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 015 DEGREES AT 17
KNOTS. PAUL IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH OVER MEXICO
AND A CUTOFF LOW WEST OF PAUL. AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD...
PAUL SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AROUND THE LOW AND
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK SHOULD KEEP A
WEAKENING PAUL OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR A DAY OR TWO. MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND THE NHC
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS.

ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NO LONGER VISIBLE ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY...MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THAT IT IS HIDDEN UNDER THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
THIS IS AN INDICATION THAT A WEAKENING PROCESS HAS ALREADY BEGUN.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 90 KNOTS...AND ALTHOUGH
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A
HURRICANE AND REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND COOL WATERS WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING...AND PAUL IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND WEAKEN TO A
REMNANT LOW AFTERWARD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 23.8N 112.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 25.8N 111.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/1200Z 27.0N 112.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/0000Z 28.5N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 18/1200Z 29.5N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 19/1200Z 31.3N 121.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



Ah ok, thought was just me spacing out for a few days as was surprised to see the post about landfall already LOL
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 845
629. WXMichael
3:40 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting Barefootontherocks:


VR46L is a known negative megacritic of wu and also known to be highly critical of certain individuals who blog here - Neo being one of them. S/he blogs "elsewhere" under a different handle. Some of the handles that plussed the VR46L comment calling Neo a troll are in the same category. Why admin allows them to continue blogging at wu, the million dollar question.


Thanks for your opinion. I may be new and not post very often but the last time I checked, I could plus any comment that I agree with. I don't think it's necessary to resort to name calling, so that's why I plussed it. Let the science speak for itself. Not that I need to explain myself.

Sorry if you feel like people that don't share your opinions are crashing your little party. And also, last time I checked, as Neo stated well, the ignore button is your friend. I encourage you to use it on those that you don't think should be allowed to post at WU. Doing so would make it more of the site that you wish it was.
Member Since: January 2, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 48
628. Grothar
3:31 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Or that future storm will not take such a path. For all we know the the SW Carib may just provide us with one of Gro's famous blobs and give all a wet Holloween.


I wouldn't do that to you guys. Wet candy is awful to eat. Even though I've been posting the Western Caribbean for the past week. :) I would say "I saw it first" but people might think I'm serious.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26426
627. weatherbro
3:13 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
With the MJO forecasted to stay at phase 1, I'm thinking models will trend eastwards towards Hispaniola/Purto Rico imo. But the Euro shows another major east conus trough in about 10 days.
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1307
626. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:06 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
625. Barefootontherocks
3:05 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting VR46L:
Barefootontherocks

Thanks very much ! I actually did not call Neo a troll but pointed out that if you call someone a troll you were leaving yourself open to the same

I actually like the weather people over here . and have not been deliberately nasty to them . And I make alot of weather posts. Its when it come to Climate Change I disagree with some folk on here .
Yes I do belong to another site as well as this one I will not mention the site as I know that it is against the rules but its not against the rules to belong to other communities .or is it?
You know I spoke the truth. I am putting you on ignore. Bye.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18710
624. Tropicsweatherpr
3:03 PM GMT on October 16, 2012

HURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...RAFAEL REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED ON
SATELLITE PICTURES WITH A SOLID CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA SHOW THE PRESSURE FELL TO 970 MB A
FEW HOURS AGO...WITH THE MOST RECENT MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF
90 KT AND SFMR DATA OF 70-75 KT. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO
80 KT AS A BLEND OF THESE DATA. WEAKENING SHOULD START FAIRLY SOON
WITH STRONG SHEAR APPROACHING THE CYCLONE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE INTENSITY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE NEW NHC FORECAST...BUT
IT IS HARD TO BELIEVE RAFAEL WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY WITH
PREDICTED SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 40 KT. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE
INITIAL WINDS.

RAFAEL IS MOVING A BIT FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...020/21.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE HURRICANE
PASSING TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA TONIGHT...THEN MOVING FASTER TO THE
NORTHEAST BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THERE ARE SOME MINOR SPEED
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THE CYCLONE MOVES...AND THE NHC FORECAST
LIES ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BETWEEN THE
INTERPOLATED PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS LIKELY BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS DUE TO
VERY COLD WATER AND INTERACTION WITH A COLD FRONT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 28.6N 64.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 31.7N 62.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 36.5N 59.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 41.5N 53.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 45.5N 44.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/1200Z 50.5N 30.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/1200Z 51.0N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1200Z 44.0N 29.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14308
623. kmanislander
3:02 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


No, I am not concerned about it yet. It is too far out. But it seems all the models are hinting at a system developing in the SW Caribbean soon.



Good morning.

Three models calling for development. The GFS and Euro develop an area of low pressure in the SW Caribbean at 168 hrs ( 7 days ), Ngp at 144 hrs. This is getting very close to the timeline where the models are no longer in fantasy land

Euro ( 00Z run )



GFS ( 06 Z run )



Ngp ( 00Z run )






Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
622. VR46L
3:01 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Barefootontherocks

Thanks very much ! I actually did not call Neo a troll but pointed out that if you call someone a troll you were leaving yourself open to the same

I actually like the weather people over here . and have not been deliberately nasty to them . And I make alot of weather posts. Its when it come to Climate Change I disagree with some folk on here .
Yes I do belong to another site as well as this one I will not mention the site as I know that it is against the rules but its not against the rules to belong to other communities .or is it?
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
621. AztecCe
2:59 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Or that future storm will not take such a path. For all we know the the SW Carib may just provide us with one of Gro's famous blobs and give all a wet Holloween.
lol mabye we'll see
Member Since: October 12, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
620. SFLWeatherman
2:57 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Hurricane Wilma forecast map.

October
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4666
619. rmbjoe1954
2:56 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting AztecCe:
mabye this storm we're all talking about will take a simular path but deffinently not the same strength


Or that future storm will not take such a path. For all we know the the SW Carib may just provide us with one of Gro's famous blobs and give all a wet Holloween.
Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1359
618. FtMyersgal
2:55 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1219
617. AztecCe
2:53 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Major Hurricane Charley
mabye this storm we're all talking about will take a simular path but deffinently not the same strength
Member Since: October 12, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
616. Tropicsweatherpr
2:53 PM GMT on October 16, 2012

HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT PAUL WAS MOVING TOWARD BAJA
CALIFORNIA FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND THAT PROMPTED AN
SPECIAL ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE
INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 015 DEGREES AT 17
KNOTS. PAUL IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH OVER MEXICO
AND A CUTOFF LOW WEST OF PAUL. AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD...
PAUL SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AROUND THE LOW AND
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK SHOULD KEEP A
WEAKENING PAUL OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR A DAY OR TWO. MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND THE NHC
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS.

ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NO LONGER VISIBLE ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY...MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THAT IT IS HIDDEN UNDER THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
THIS IS AN INDICATION THAT A WEAKENING PROCESS HAS ALREADY BEGUN.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 90 KNOTS...AND ALTHOUGH
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A
HURRICANE AND REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND COOL WATERS WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING...AND PAUL IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND WEAKEN TO A
REMNANT LOW AFTERWARD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 23.8N 112.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 25.8N 111.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/1200Z 27.0N 112.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/0000Z 28.5N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 18/1200Z 29.5N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 19/1200Z 31.3N 121.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14308
615. AussieStorm
2:50 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting aspectre:
590 JeffMasters: The 3006-passenger cruise ship Carnival Splendor is making a daring run southeastwards along the Baja coast in front of Hurricane Paul, and encountered some very heavy weather this morning. At 5 am EDT, the vessel reported sustained winds of 54 mph and hail in a heavy squall located about 160 miles northeast of Paul's eye...
598 AussieStorm: Lets hope they get through. Glad I'm not onboard.
599 Neapolitan: ..."The Fun Ship".

"I come from the land down under, where beer does flow and the men chunder..."

Can't you hear, can't you hear the thunder?
You better run, you better take cover.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15937
614. AussieStorm
2:49 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Sorry for the double post but I also noticed that the GFS continues to show 2 storms.But knowing how the male names have been going will it be terrible Tony or scary Sandy?.ha ha.But due to the popularity of Spongebob which is a light hearted kids show no one will take Sandy serious and Tony sounds like a guy who could either be delivering or making your pizza.

Fat Tony comes to mind. Don't want to cross him. lol
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15937
613. washingtonian115
2:48 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting AztecCe:
The tiny hurricane packed a punched and showed the big surprises do come in little sizes.That is a possible track for whatever that develops.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17073
612. aspectre
2:45 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
590 JeffMasters: The 3006-passenger cruise ship Carnival Splendor is making a daring run southeastwards along the Baja coast in front of Hurricane Paul, and encountered some very heavy weather this morning. At 5 am EDT, the vessel reported sustained winds of 54 mph and hail in a heavy squall located about 160 miles northeast of Paul's eye...
598 AussieStorm: Lets hope they get through. Glad I'm not onboard.
599 Neapolitan: ...Carnival's..."The Fun Ship".

"I come from the land down under, where beer does flow and the men chunder..."
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
611. GTcooliebai
2:44 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting AztecCe:
Major Hurricane Charley
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
610. Barefootontherocks
2:43 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting VR46L:


Did you ever hear the saying it takes one to know one ....

Rafael in rainbow




Quoting Xyrus2000:


Since when is posting scientific results consider being a troll?

Oh the humanity.
(Comment modified) Nevermind. Not worth expending any more energy.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18710
609. WXMichael
2:42 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm not really buying into that storm that the GFS model is forecasting at this time because it is so far out.However some of the worst storms in the Atlantic has occurred in October.There is a lot of heat bundled up in the Caribbean as well.


I agree. Hasn't it been a recurring theme this season to have some type of anticipated development in the Western Carib? It just seems like the sheer there has been too strong to allow anything to get going.
Member Since: January 2, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 48
608. unknowncomic
2:41 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
hopefully paul will add rainfall to those southwestern states that need the rains badly
Probably get it is to build you the golf also.
Quoting LargoFl:
hopefully paul will add rainfall to those southwestern states that need the rains badly
Probably going to add instability to the gulf of Mexico also.
Member Since: August 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2032
607. AztecCe
2:41 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Member Since: October 12, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
606. VR46L
2:39 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Conditions have not been T.C friendly in the Caribbean this year.Perhaps a T.S or a Ida type situation.But a Wilma situation I just don't see.


I agree on that but there actually appears to be moist conditions down there now



but there is an awful amount of shear in the Caribbean at the moment...(click on the shear boxes to see)

Link

I guess it just keeps us interested in the season for a little longer
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
605. GTcooliebai
2:39 PM GMT on October 16, 2012



Forecast of MJO associated anomalous OLR for the next 15 days from the ensemble mean GFS based on forecasts of RMM1 and RMM2. Blue (yellow/red) shades show negative (positive) OLR anomalies and enhanced (suppressed) convection. Forecasts do not include direct contributions from other climate modes such as ENSO, monsoons, etc. - only the MJO.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
604. FtMyersgal
2:35 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
.


What happened to your post? Hummmmm
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1219
603. washingtonian115
2:30 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Sorry for the double post but I also noticed that the GFS continues to show 2 storms.But knowing how the male names have been going will it be terrible Tony or scary Sandy?.ha ha.But due to the popularity of Spongebob which is a light hearted kids show no one will take Sandy serious and Tony sounds like a guy who could either be delivering or making your pizza.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17073
602. washingtonian115
2:25 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting VR46L:


I am not so sure Wash .the Euro is on board for developement of some kind @240hrs

Conditions have not been T.C friendly in the Caribbean this year.Perhaps a T.S or a Ida type situation.But a Wilma situation I just don't see.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17073
601. GTcooliebai
2:24 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
GFS at 384 hours,GFS still puts it into south florida...
One of the Ensemble Members puts it right over us.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
600. VR46L
2:18 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm not really buying into that storm that the GFS model is forecasting at this time because it is so far out.However some of the worst storms in the Atlantic has occurred in October.There is a lot of heat bundled up in the Caribbean as well.


I am not so sure Wash .the Euro is on board for developement of some kind @240hrs

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
599. Neapolitan
2:17 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting JeffMasters:
The 3006-passenger cruise ship Carnival Splendor is making a daring run southeastwards along the Baja coast in front of Hurricane Paul, and encountered some very heavy weather this morning. At 5 am EDT, the vessel reported sustained winds of 54 mph and hail in a heavy squall located about 160 miles northeast of Paul's eye. The winds were measured on top of the ship, at an altitude more than 200 feet above the standard 10 meter (32.8') altitude used to report winds.

Jeff Masters
No doubt giving new meaning to Carnival's marketing phrase "The Fun Ship".

Splendor

(Link)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
598. AussieStorm
2:17 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting JeffMasters:
The 3006-passenger cruise ship Carnival Splendor is making a daring run southeastwards along the Baja coast in front of Hurricane Paul, and encountered some very heavy weather this morning. At 5 am EDT, the vessel reported sustained winds of 54 mph and hail in a heavy squall located about 160 miles northeast of Paul's eye. The winds were measured on top of the ship, at an altitude more than 200 feet above the standard 10 meter (32.8') altitude used to report winds.

Jeff Masters
Lets hope they get through. Glad I'm not onboard.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15937
597. VR46L
2:15 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Atlanticview in rainbow ... Rafael looking massive ..getting a bit concerned

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6927
596. washingtonian115
2:12 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
I'm not really buying into that storm that the GFS model is forecasting at this time because it is so far out.However some of the worst storms in the Atlantic has occurred in October.There is a lot of heat bundled up in the Caribbean as well.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17073
595. aspectre
2:12 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
All times in GMT. Derived from NHC_ATCF data for HurricaneRafael @ 16Oct.12pm
15Oct.12pm 22.6n65.6w 65knots(75mph)120km/h 983millibars TropicalStorm
15Oct.06pm 23.6n65.8w 70knots(81mph)130km/h 980millibars TropicalStorm
16Oct.12am 24.6n65.6w 80knots(92mph)148km/h 974millibars Hurricane
16Oct.06am 25.9n65.3w 80knots(92mph)148km/h 972millibars Hurricane
16Oct.12pm 27.6n64.9w 75knots(86mph)139km/h 970millibars Hurricane

BDA-Bermuda :: NGD-Anegada

The longest line is a straightline projection through Rafael's 2 most recent positions to it's closest approach to Bermuda.

16Oct.12pm -- HurricaneRafael was heading for a 17Oct.09:11amGMT passage 46miles(74kilometres)E-ESEast of Bermuda in ~19hours

Copy&paste ngd, bda, 22.6n65.6w-23.6n65.8w, 23.6n65.8w-24.6n65.6w, 24.6n65.6w-25.9n65.3w, 25.9n65.3w-27.3n65.0w, 25.9n65.3w-32.2374n63.8797W, 32.3675n64.6475w-32.2374n63.8797w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
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594. LargoFl
2:06 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39056
593. Skyepony (Mod)
2:06 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Little less than an hour left for the GOES-13 test. You can see it here. They are routing the data through GOES-14. After test Goes-13 should be going back into storage & GOES-14 & 13 will go back to GOES-EAST (from GOES-14 view) while decisions are made. To compare the too during test toggle between Goes-14 & GOES-EAST.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 172 Comments: 38129
592. LargoFl
2:03 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39056
591. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:00 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Brian McNoldy posted an image comparing the average model error for all four cycles of the GFS. Contrary to popular belief, the 06z and 18z runs are not all that unreliable. In fact, there is barely any difference.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32255
590. Dr. Jeff Masters , Director of Meteorology (Admin)
1:58 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
The 3006-passenger cruise ship Carnival Splendor is making a daring run southeastwards along the Baja coast in front of Hurricane Paul, and encountered some very heavy weather this morning. At 5 am EDT, the vessel reported sustained winds of 54 mph and hail in a heavy squall located about 160 miles northeast of Paul's eye. The winds were measured on top of the ship, at an altitude more than 200 feet above the standard 10 meter (32.8') altitude used to report winds.

Jeff Masters
589. AussieStorm
1:57 PM GMT on October 16, 2012


Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15937
588. AussieStorm
1:55 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
..GRO, are you concerned at all about this or is it true, its just way too far out to start worrying about it..me, I am seeing the good models saying it now for 4-5 days straight, same thing in the same area..

I would keep watching it as "maybe" the models are picking up on something we don't see just yet. never let your guard down.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15937
587. Grothar
1:54 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
..GRO, are you concerned at all about this or is it true, its just way too far out to start worrying about it..me, I am seeing the good models saying it now for 4-5 days straight, same thing in the same area..


No, I am not concerned about it yet. It is too far out. But it seems all the models are hinting at a system developing in the SW Caribbean soon.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26426
586. LargoFl
1:53 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting AztecCe:
Paul almost at landfall
hopefully paul will add rainfall to those southwestern states that need the rains badly
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39056
585. AztecCe
1:50 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Paul almost at landfall
Member Since: October 12, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
584. LargoFl
1:50 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39056
583. LargoFl
1:47 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39056
582. AztecCe
1:47 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
hmmm isaac comes to mind
Member Since: October 12, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
581. LargoFl
1:45 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39056
580. LargoFl
1:44 PM GMT on October 16, 2012
funny thing about this supposed storm..whatever it turns out to be..we must remember this is october and IF the models are correct this comes up along the southern western part of florida then crosses over florida into the atlantic..IF this does happen...its the normal thing for a storm to do in this month..which is why florida especially has to watch all storms in the carribean and the gulf..the pattern is to push it eastward
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39056

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.