September 2012: Earth's warmest September on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:01 PM GMT on October 15, 2012

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September 2012 was tied with 2005 as the globe's warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Global temperature records begin in 1880. NASA rated September 2012 the 4th warmest September on record. September 2012 global land temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record. September 2012 was the 331st consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time Earth had a below-average September global temperature was in 1976, and the last below-average month of any kind was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in September 2012 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 5th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of September 2012 in his September 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2012, which tied 2005 as the warmest September on record. Parts of east central Russia observed record warmth, as did parts of Venezuela, French Guinea, and northern Brazil. Nearly all of South America was much warmer than average, as were western Australia and central to eastern Europe. Far eastern Russia, a few regions in southern Africa, and parts of China were cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch continues
Neutral El Niño conditions exist in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were 0.1°C above average as of October 15. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has issued an El Niño watch, and gives a 55% chance that an El Niño event will be in place during the October - November - December period. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C above average or warmer to be considered an El Niño. El Niño conditions tend to bring cooler and wetter winter weather to the Southern U.S.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in September 2012 was the lowest measured, since satellite records began in 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Arctic sea ice falls to lowest extent on record in September
Arctic sea ice extent during September reached its lowest extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). As of October 14, Arctic sea extent had set a new record low for the date every day since July 27. I have much more to say about this year's extraordinary loss of Arctic sea ice in my September 20, 2012 post, Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low.

Jeff Masters

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what website do you use to get the long rang GFS and Euro models from on the long range forecast

Timm
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Time: 21:53:00Z
Coordinates: 24.0833N 65.7667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 697.0 mb (~ 20.58 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,962 meters (~ 9,718 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 970.4 mb (~ 28.66 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 300° at 23 knots (From the WNW at ~ 26.4 mph)
Air Temp: 20.9°C (~ 69.6°F)
Dew Pt: 11.5°C (~ 52.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 33 knots (~ 37.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 19 knots (~ 21.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting Thing342:
I REALLY hope that we don't have another Isaac-like storm, with low pressures but low winds.


It can't be though, the wind field isn't expanding from what I can see.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
Quoting Thing342:
I REALLY hope that we don't have another Isaac-like storm, with low pressures but low winds.

We already do really... it's pretty uncommon for a storm of around 970mb to only be a Cat 1 (assuming the NHC upgrades at 8 or 11)... quite a few similarities to Isaac in that regard.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


USAF plane just found a 970mb reading.

15200 2402N 06547W 6977 02964 9717 209 107 300030 033 018 002 03
215230 2404N 06546W 6957 02978 9704 213 111 294031 033 018 001 00
215300 2405N 06546W 6970 02962 9704 209 115 300023 033 019 001 00
215330 2407N 06545W 6962 02962 9715 190 120 292015 019 016 002 00
I REALLY hope that we don't have another Isaac-like storm, with low pressures but low winds.
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 441
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


USAF plane just found a 970mb reading.

15200 2402N 06547W 6977 02964 9717 209 107 300030 033 018 002 03
215230 2404N 06546W 6957 02978 9704 213 111 294031 033 018 001 00
215300 2405N 06546W 6970 02962 9704 209 115 300023 033 019 001 00
215330 2407N 06545W 6962 02962 9715 190 120 292015 019 016 002 00


O_O

Now the NHC is gonna upgrade him to 75 mph, even though he has the pressure of a full-on bombing-out category 2. What is it with the NHC this year? They're so conservative with these intensities. Like they are scared to be proven wrong or something.
Did Sarah Palin become the top dog there, is that where she's been? They've gotten so conservative, they're like the Tea Party.

Haha, I joke, but seriously... we all know Rafael's stronger than they've been saying.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
Quoting Grothar:
It actually didn't move that fast.





Wilma arrived at 25, left at 30.5



And we are lucky it was haulin' butt. The Okeechobee Lake dike was very nearly breached.
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had to leave back with rest of gfs
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
Quoting CybrTeddy:
214530 2408N 06530W 7516 02359 9799 209 127 187041 044 052 003 00

Still a bit away from the center, so probably 976-977 mb,


USAF plane just found a 970mb reading.

15200 2402N 06547W 6977 02964 9717 209 107 300030 033 018 002 03
215230 2404N 06546W 6957 02978 9704 213 111 294031 033 018 001 00
215300 2405N 06546W 6970 02962 9704 209 115 300023 033 019 001 00
215330 2407N 06545W 6962 02962 9715 190 120 292015 019 016 002 00
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
214530 2408N 06530W 7516 02359 9799 +209 +127 187041 044 052 003 00

Still a bit away from the center, so probably 976-977 mb,

If Rafael isn't a hurricane tonight then I will personally go to the NHC and write my own advisory on it:)

Seriously though, Rafael should be a hurricane at 8pm or 11pm at the latest. I don't see why he wasn't upgraded in the first place. I know there is some tilt but I don't see why that stops Rafael from being a hurricane in this situation.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
214530 2408N 06530W 7516 02359 9799 +209 +127 187041 044 052 003 00

Still a bit away from the center, so probably 976-977 mb,
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Yes. We know that. But, do we then outright dismisses a piece just presented because it suggests a slightly different take? Or, let me ask you this instead. Are you suggesting the piece in comment #4 an outright lie?


Not at all. In fact, for a summary piece it's prettty decent.

The issue I have is when people like Watts, McIntyre, and Bastardi and their ilk ignorantly claim that increasing anarctic sea ice "balances out" arctic sea ice loss and "proves the globe isn't warming", which is complete nonsense.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Rafael
Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
977mb (Surface) 135° (from the SE) 17 knots (20 mph)
963mb 145° (from the SE) 21 knots (24 mph)
925mb 150° (from the SSE) 14 knots (16 mph)
884mb 150° (from the SSE) 13 knots (15 mph)
873mb 155° (from the SSE) 17 knots (20 mph)
859mb 190° (from the S) 11 knots (13 mph)
850mb 185° (from the S) 11 knots (13 mph)
823mb 180° (from the S) 10 knots (12 mph)
799mb 210° (from the SSW) 10 knots (12 mph)
782mb 195° (from the SSW) 12 knots (14 mph)
775mb 225° (from the SW) 11 knots (13 mph)
751mb 235° (from the SW) 11 knots (13 mph)

Rafael should, after saying this three times already, be a hurricane at the next advisory.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
NOAA2 found 84kt wind at flight level and is uncontaminated.

213830 2415N 06500W 7509 02412 9898 +147 +147 153082 084 057 007 00

I think we should've seen Hurricane Rafael by now, most indicators say he is one.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
The pressures for Rafael has dropped down to 977 mb if I'm reading the dropsonde right. EXTRAP Pressures on the HH recorded 983 mb with a 40kt wind, so that by itself puts it a few mb lower. If that's the case, obvious hurricane.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
NOAA2 found 84kt wind at flight level and is uncontaminated.

213830 2415N 06500W 7509 02412 9898 +147 +147 153082 084 057 007 00
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
Quoting Grothar:


Here's hoping. I try to keep all our magazine subscriptions on a month to month basis.


I quit buying green bananas.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
Quoting opal92nwf:
What in the world happened to the Gulf!? It seems like it never recovered after Isaac came through. Yeah it should be slowly cooling at this point, but right now it looks like the Eastern Gulf won't be able to support even a tropical storm by November!
The GOM didn't have as high of TCHP values to begin with this year. Isaac used up a good amount of what was in the GOM. Conditions could still support a storm in the gulf, just not a cat4 or 5.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Rafael
Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
977mb (Surface) 135° (from the SE) 17 knots (20 mph)
963mb 145° (from the SE) 21 knots (24 mph)
925mb 150° (from the SSE) 14 knots (16 mph)
884mb 150° (from the SSE) 13 knots (15 mph)
873mb 155° (from the SSE) 17 knots (20 mph)
859mb 190° (from the S) 11 knots (13 mph)
850mb 185° (from the S) 11 knots (13 mph)
823mb 180° (from the S) 10 knots (12 mph)
799mb 210° (from the SSW) 10 knots (12 mph)
782mb 195° (from the SSW) 12 knots (14 mph)
775mb 225° (from the SW) 11 knots (13 mph)
751mb 235° (from the SW) 11 knots (13 mph)
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
18Z GFS INIT 06HR TO 144 HR + EXTENDED TO 172HR\


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55665
What in the world happened to the Gulf!? It seems like it never recovered after Isaac came through. Yeah it should be slowly cooling at this point, but right now it looks like the Eastern Gulf won't be able to support even a tropical storm by November!
Member Since: May 12, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 2843





Rafael
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Intense Tropical Cyclone Anais, a few hours after peak intensity, with an weakening eye, on October 15, 2012, as a category 3 cyclone.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Wilma did have some strange rainfall distribution, I couldn't believe you had less rain than me at first from Wilma when you said it, but its true, and very weird:




Strangely enough, Wilma hardly had any rain on the south side as it made landfall, all the rainfall was to the north and northeast of of it's center, almost like a baroclinic cyclone. It might also be the only major hurricane to bring a cold blast literally right behind it. Granted, Wilma was moving fast, but still, a very odd rainfall distribution, major hurricanes normally produce 8 to 10 inches or more inch in the path of the eye wall regardless of if its moving quickly or not.


It had a large eye when it moved through south Florida thus void them of precip for a time whereas points north received persistent rains and higher storm totals.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Well it was sort of a figure of speech because it was strange, not so much a jab at you :)

lol


:)
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Quoting Grothar:


You doubted my word? Jedkins, I'm surprised at you



Well it was sort of a figure of speech because it was strange, not so much a jab at you :)

lol
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Major Hurricane Paul from birth to now...in chart-form.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
Major Hurricane Paul

(McCartney)
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Quoting pottery:

360 hrs???

Will we live this long?

:):))


Here's hoping. I try to keep all our magazine subscriptions on a month to month basis.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Wilma did have some strange rainfall distribution, I couldn't believe you had less rain than me at first from Wilma when you said it, but its true, and very weird:




Strangely enough, Wilma hardly had any rain on the south side as it made landfall, all the rainfall was to the north and northeast of of it's center, almost like a baroclinic cyclone. It might also be the only major hurricane to bring a cold blast literally right behind it. Granted, Wilma was moving fast, but still, a very odd rainfall distribution, major hurricanes normally produce 8 to 10 inches or more inch in the path of the eye wall regardless of if its moving quickly or not.


You doubted my word? Jedkins, I'm surprised at you
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Quoting Grothar:


Less than an inch. We did get some good wind, though. The destruction in Broward and Palm Beach Counties was tremendous. The strange part, was the eye looked so big, but there was some of the most violent winds in that core. When the second half hit, it was violent. I still maintain to this day, that was not a Cat 2, but a 3.


Yes, I remember the reports. That was one storm that would have made a better fish storm as opposed to a land falling one.
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Dare i say Paul looks... annular
he is very donut-like
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Paul made it too Major Status :)
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Quoting Grothar:


Less than an inch. We did get some good wind, though. The destruction in Broward and Palm Beach Counties was tremendous. The strange part, was the eye looked so big, but there was some of the most violent winds in that core. When the second half hit, it was violent. I still maintain to this day, that was not a Cat 2, but a 3.



Wilma did have some strange rainfall distribution, I couldn't believe you had less rain than me at first from Wilma when you said it, but its true, and very weird:




Strangely enough, Wilma hardly had any rain on the south side as it made landfall, all the rainfall was to the north and northeast of of it's center, almost like a baroclinic cyclone. It might also be the only major hurricane to bring a cold blast literally right behind it. Granted, Wilma was moving fast, but still, a very odd rainfall distribution, major hurricanes normally produce 8 to 10 inches or more inch in the path of the eye wall regardless of if its moving quickly or not.
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For those of you in need of some solid, Cape
Verde action....check out old Sandy at 11.4 N, 34.9 w

Shes a thing of beauty!! Movement w at 16 winds 40 mph 1004 mb.

Sandy...The Real Deal!!!!
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Quoting Grothar:
360 hours


360 hrs???

Will we live this long?

:):))
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.