September 2012: Earth's warmest September on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:01 PM GMT on October 15, 2012

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September 2012 was tied with 2005 as the globe's warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Global temperature records begin in 1880. NASA rated September 2012 the 4th warmest September on record. September 2012 global land temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record. September 2012 was the 331st consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time Earth had a below-average September global temperature was in 1976, and the last below-average month of any kind was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in September 2012 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 5th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of September 2012 in his September 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2012, which tied 2005 as the warmest September on record. Parts of east central Russia observed record warmth, as did parts of Venezuela, French Guinea, and northern Brazil. Nearly all of South America was much warmer than average, as were western Australia and central to eastern Europe. Far eastern Russia, a few regions in southern Africa, and parts of China were cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch continues
Neutral El Niño conditions exist in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were 0.1°C above average as of October 15. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has issued an El Niño watch, and gives a 55% chance that an El Niño event will be in place during the October - November - December period. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C above average or warmer to be considered an El Niño. El Niño conditions tend to bring cooler and wetter winter weather to the Southern U.S.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in September 2012 was the lowest measured, since satellite records began in 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Arctic sea ice falls to lowest extent on record in September
Arctic sea ice extent during September reached its lowest extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). As of October 14, Arctic sea extent had set a new record low for the date every day since July 27. I have much more to say about this year's extraordinary loss of Arctic sea ice in my September 20, 2012 post, Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low.

Jeff Masters

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Could we have a situation similar to Rina from last year with this?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7747
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53570
Recon finding a whole page of 80+ MPH hurricane winds.
77 knots
(~ 88.5 mph)
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53570
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'll stop posting since y'all seem to have the model run pretty much covered guys, lol.

You, MA, and me posted the 300hr image at the same time. Going to be a very interesting couple weeks. Someone could have a very scary Halloween.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53570
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53570
18z GFS develops a large monsoonal Hurricane at the end of the run.

ECM has the beginnings of this system.

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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53570
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Just sitting and spinning:



That will surely be terrifying if it panned out.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53570
I'll stop posting since y'all seem to have the model run pretty much covered guys, lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31911
Just sitting and spinning:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7747
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53570
WOW!!! AF mission: max 92 kts at flight level, 67 kts SMFR
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Evening, everyone. I had thought to find Rafael a hurricane already. Guess he's taking his time.
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What happens when you let a storm stall over great conditions, it becomes a strengthening hurricane.
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The GFS shows the dangers of a slow-moving tropical cyclone moving over high TCHP in a low wind shear environment.

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79 knot surface winds from the non-tasked and 72 knot winds form the USAF plane.

Rafael is a Hurricane.
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Oh boy... doom alert again.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7747
300 hours. Little motion and strengthening:

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Strengthening TS in the Caribbean at 300hrs.
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There's our intensifying storm.

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264 hours... develops a little something right on the coast of Central America:

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Recon so far:

- 90 knot flight-level winds
- 65 knot surface winds
- Minimum pressure of 970 millibars
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31911
There's some low pressure in the Caribbean at 228 hours. Let's see if it develops.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7747
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I can say with confidence that Rafael will be a hurricane at the next advisory.

Rafael should, with extra emphasis on should, be a hurricane at the next advisory. Just saying you never know what could happen. I know it should and most likely will be a hurricane the next advisory but still nothing is 100%.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
192 hours... East Pac storm. It's been consistent with that.


The Atlantic and the EPAC should see at least one more storm this year. I want to see how strong and where this run's Atlantic storm will go.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
From what recon's finding 75-80mph seems realistic for 8PM on Rafael.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7747
192 hours... East Pac storm. It's been consistent with that.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7747
I can say with confidence that Rafael will be a hurricane at the next advisory.
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18z Nogaps..180 hour..near the Yutucan..

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79kt SFMR winds found by the non-tasked mission.
79 knots
(~ 90.8 mph)
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63kt SFMR winds found with 88mph flight level winds, pressure is 970mb.
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Quoting thesurfsup:
what website do you use to get the long rang GFS and Euro models from on the long range forecast

Timm

This site is very good for the long range tropical runs and such.

This one is more for the US/severe weather.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
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238. BDAwx
They aren't going to claim it has winds greater than what they can support with recon data. Though I do find it bizarre that a relatively small storm has such a low pressure with such low winds. Sometimes, you don't even see the hurricane force winds at landfall even when pressure readings are ridiculously low and the core of the storm moves over observing stations.
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High pressure is situated over my area in a week. That should lead to the development of a pretty significant tropical cyclone in the Caribbean on this run.

Or, nothing will develop just to prove me wrong.

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Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Time: 21:53:00Z
Coordinates: 24.0833N 65.7667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 697.0 mb (~ 20.58 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,962 meters (~ 9,718 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 970.4 mb (~ 28.66 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 300° at 23 knots (From the WNW at ~ 26.4 mph)
Air Temp: 20.9°C (~ 69.6°F)
Dew Pt: 11.5°C (~ 52.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 33 knots (~ 37.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 19 knots (~ 21.8 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

80 Mph at 8 pm advisory...
85 at 11 pm, Then Category 2 tomorrow ;)
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Quoting thesurfsup:
what website do you use to get the long rang GFS and Euro models from on the long range forecast

Timm

I use this one.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31911
extended
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I KNEW PAUL WAS GOING TO BE A MAJOR!!!

But it went from 90mph to 120 mph???? wow
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53570
what website do you use to get the long rang GFS and Euro models from on the long range forecast

Timm
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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