September 2012: Earth's warmest September on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:01 PM GMT on October 15, 2012

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September 2012 was tied with 2005 as the globe's warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Global temperature records begin in 1880. NASA rated September 2012 the 4th warmest September on record. September 2012 global land temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record. September 2012 was the 331st consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time Earth had a below-average September global temperature was in 1976, and the last below-average month of any kind was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in September 2012 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 5th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of September 2012 in his September 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2012, which tied 2005 as the warmest September on record. Parts of east central Russia observed record warmth, as did parts of Venezuela, French Guinea, and northern Brazil. Nearly all of South America was much warmer than average, as were western Australia and central to eastern Europe. Far eastern Russia, a few regions in southern Africa, and parts of China were cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch continues
Neutral El Niño conditions exist in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were 0.1°C above average as of October 15. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has issued an El Niño watch, and gives a 55% chance that an El Niño event will be in place during the October - November - December period. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C above average or warmer to be considered an El Niño. El Niño conditions tend to bring cooler and wetter winter weather to the Southern U.S.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in September 2012 was the lowest measured, since satellite records began in 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Arctic sea ice falls to lowest extent on record in September
Arctic sea ice extent during September reached its lowest extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). As of October 14, Arctic sea extent had set a new record low for the date every day since July 27. I have much more to say about this year's extraordinary loss of Arctic sea ice in my September 20, 2012 post, Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low.

Jeff Masters

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380. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ANAIS (01-20122013)
4:30 AM RET October 16 2012
==========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Anais (988 hPa) located at 13.8S 62.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/4.0/W1.0/6 HRS

Storm Force Winds
====================
from the center, extending up to 45 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 50 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 10 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 95 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 150 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 165 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 15.5S 58.3E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 16.7S 55.4E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
======================

Anais is weakening rapidly under increasing north to northwesterly shear and low oceanic heat contain. N18 AMSUB imagery of 2245z show an exposed low level circulation center located 20-30 NM to the north of the residual convection that appears shapeless. Consequently the Dvorak constraints are broken for the present intensity estimate. It remains in the lower side of the other available estimate (PGTW at 4.5, Advance Dvorak Techneque at 4.5 but displaced the center, SATCON at 81 kt at 2200z, 1 min wind)

Available numerical guidance (1200z) are now in better agreement for the long term track forecast. The recurvature scenario appear less likely and anais should remain under the steering influence of a low to mid-level ridge located to its southeast and follow a general west southwards track.

Environmental conditions are expected to remain unfavorable over the forecast period and Anais should be below tropical storm strength within the next 24 to 36 hours.
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Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7782
R.I.FLAG FLAG
T.C.F.W.
16L/-H/R/C2
MARK
24.55N/65.84W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53838
Quoting TomTaylor:
Well I guess those who can't forecast just criticize those who can...I look forward to the day you grow the huevos to post your own forecasts.

BTW, 50% to named storm in less than a day is pretty much a blown forecast by the NHC. The fact is the doc and the NHC were seeing similar things, both didn't really think it would develop...50% is a far cry from 100%.

So it would be ok to criticize the NHC and not Dr Masters? If as you say, both Dr Masters and the NHC both made blown forecasts, why is one exempt from criticism?
Cause this is Dr Masters Blog we can't criticize him. Hasn't stopped people in the past.

If you missed it, this is what Dr Masters said.
Quoting JeffMasters:


I unfortunately had little time to prepare my blog yesterday, due to the pressures of an early travel commitment (had to be on the road by 8 am.) My treatment of pre-Patty was quite rushed, and definitely one of my poorer efforts. Had the storm been more of a threat to populated areas, I would have made a stronger effort.

Jeff Masters
Enough said on that issue, Patty is gone and so should this issue.
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Paul is starting to fall apart almost as quickly as he strengthened. 0z ATCF brought him down to 100kts.



I wouldn't expect much more than a naked swirl in 36 hours.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What are your thoughts on a potential West Caribbean hurricane affecting Florida by Halloween?

Join chat if you have time. Isaac is boring.

If he wasn't writing a special update blog then he wouldn't be so boring.


Quoting MAweatherboy1:
AF recon plane is leaving now... another very successful mission.

Yup, this is why I like having recon.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
Part of the Florida Peninsula may get a formidable hurricane in the long range forecast if the models are correct.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
MJO is strongly amplifying in our basin. Models agree on another at least one more development in the next two weeks. This would put us at 18 named storms, making it the second most active 3 year period (in terms of named storms), behind the 2003-2005 period (59 TSs vs 56TSs (assuming one more develops)). It is worth noting, however, that that same period from 2003-2005 had 16 major hurricanes while ours has had only 10 so far. Similarly, ACE for that three year period was 647, while so far these past three years have had a combined ACE of only 390. So while named storm count is similar, the level of intense activity we saw during the 2003-2005 period was far greater than that of this three year span.

MJO Forecast


What are your thoughts on a potential West Caribbean hurricane affecting Florida by Halloween?

Join chat if you have time. Isaac is boring.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32046
AF recon plane is leaving now... another very successful mission.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53838
2012–2013 Australian Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology


Summary: Odds favour a near average cyclone season for most Australians

Average to slightly below average tropical cyclone activity is favoured for the Australian region.
Climate indicators which affect tropical cyclone activity show that:
the tropical Pacific Ocean is currently neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña);
near-El Niño conditions have been present in 2012 and have been considered in this outlook.
The typical Australian tropical cyclone season:
runs between 1 November and 30 April;
averages around 11 tropical cyclones;
will have some tropical cyclones that cross the Australian coast.



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369. wxmod
VANCOUVER - A private company has conducted what is being described as the world’s biggest geoengineering experiment off Canada’s west coast, dumping tonnes of iron into the ocean that may have triggered an artificial plankton bloom up to 10,000 square kilometres in size.

The experiment, which critics say is a ”blatant violation” of United Nations rules, involves controversial Californian businessman Russ George who teamed up with a First Nations village on Haida Gwaii to establish the Haida Salmon Restoration Corporation to run the project.

Environment Canada said Monday it is aware of “the incident,” which is reported to have entailed dumping 100 tonnes of iron sulphate into the sea in a scheme to enhance both plankton and salmon and generate lucrative carbon credits.

Read more: http://www.canada.com/technology/Geoengineering+ex periment+coast+called+blatant+violation+rules/7394 027/story.html#ixzz29Q4AvTAQ
http://www.theprovince.com/technology/Geoengineer ing+experiment+coast+called+blatant+violation/7394 027/story.html
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Well I guess those who can't forecast just criticize those who can...I look forward to the day you grow the huevos to post your own forecasts.

BTW, 50% to named storm in less than a day is pretty much a blown forecast by the NHC. The fact is the doc and the NHC were seeing similar things, both didn't really think it would develop...50% is a far cry from 100%.

FYI, Dr Masters admitted he got his forecast wrong, in his words he rushed it. End of story. That's why it's no longer talked about. Leave it on that blog.
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Good Morning all. just spent the last few days cleaning up, got power back on last night after a snow laden branch that was weakened by Fridays snow snapped and took out the power to the street on Sunday night.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Central pressure of 974mb for first hurricane advisory of Rafael ..... is that a record low for a first advisory??


Btw, Lance Armstrong is the Bernie Madeoff of world sport.

Aussie, that does sound quite low for a 1st advisory of a Hurricane, normally about 985-990mb is the level for a hurricane but I may be wrong. I found this from NOAA

Category 1: A Minimal Hurricane
Winds: 74-95 mph, 64-83 kts, 119-153 km/h
Minimum surface pressure: higher than 980 mbar
Storm surge: 3-5 ft, 1.0-1.7 m

Rafael is a Cat 1 but with a central surface pressure of a mid-range Cat 2.

Category 2: A Moderate Hurricane
Winds: 96-110 mph, 84-96 kts, 154-177 km/h
Minimum surface pressure: 979-965 mbar
Storm surge: 6-8 ft, 1.8-2.6 m

Will the winds catch up to the pressure gradient?

Btw Aussie, I agree about Lance Armstrong, so shattering about that report on tv last night.
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MJO is strongly amplifying in our basin. Models agree on another at least one more development in the next two weeks. This would put us at 18 named storms, making it the second most active 3 year period (in terms of named storms), behind the 2003-2005 period (59 TSs vs 56TSs (assuming one more develops)). It is worth noting, however, that that same period from 2003-2005 had 16 major hurricanes while ours has had only 10 so far. Similarly, ACE for that three year period was 647, while so far these past three years have had a combined ACE of only 390. So while named storm count is similar, the level of intense activity we saw during the 2003-2005 period was far greater than that of this three year span.

MJO Forecast

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Quoting TomTaylor:
Very cold cloud tops with Rafael. Pretty rare to see the Rainbow loop color scale going showing black. That's usually indicative of about -90C cloud tops.


Reminds me of a bunch of developing storms we've seen in the West Pacific this year.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7782
Very cold cloud tops with Rafael. Pretty rare to see the Rainbow loop color scale going showing black. That's usually indicative of about -90C cloud tops.

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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53838
Quoting AussieStorm:

Sorry but Dr Masters said this when both 97L and 98L were at 50%. 2hrs later we had TD16 which then became TS Patty. That's a bad forecast to me. What did the NHC see that Dr Masters didn't??

Btw, i don't give to hoots if it's cool or not to criticize.
Well I guess those who can't forecast just criticize those who can...I look forward to the day you grow the huevos to post your own forecasts.

BTW, 50% to named storm in less than a day is pretty much a blown forecast by the NHC. The fact is the doc and the NHC were seeing similar things, both didn't really think it would develop...50% is a far cry from 100%.
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361. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting flcanes:

should be an eye soon
by the way whats the deal with halloween sandy


The scene faltered there a little going from Uniform CDO to Embedded Center. Sometimes that happens when it's close to opening an eye. Doesn't look as good as earlier on MIMIC.

Models are still favoring Sandy MJO forecast certainly is.


Hey HHJoe!
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Orlando's low on Tuesday night is expected to be a breezy 63 and with a northerly flow dewpoints should be in the 40's, which will feel lovely!!!
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Hi All
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358. Skyepony (Mod)
Tropical Storm Rafael was slowly intensifying over the Atlantic Ocean north-northeast of Puerto Rico on 15 October 2012. McIDAS-V images of Suomi NPP VIIRS 11.45 µm IR channel and 0.8 µm Day/Night Band data at 05:33 UTC (courtesy of William Straka, CIMSS) showed cloud top IR brightness temperatures colder than -85 C (violet color enhancement), as well as city lights from the islands of the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and other nearby islands.


There is another good shot today of Rafael in the CIMSS blog & another Arctic storm...click pic for animation.



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Quoting Skyepony:
Rafael on aqua today..

should be an eye soon
by the way whats the deal with halloween sandy
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356. Skyepony (Mod)
Rafael on aqua today..
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I was away for a bit and now Rafael is up to 85mph. This is something I agree with and he could still do more strengthening. This reminds me of an Ophelia type situation.
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It would be amazing if Raf decided to Rapidly Intensify and end up looking something like Ophelia!
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Glad I kept my plywood from HD, I bought earlier in the year. Figured if I kept it, I'd be lucky one way or another. Would give a new meaning to Halloween, lot of tricks and no treats.Last way I'd like to here the wind howl/strange noises in the night. Thank God it's been a slow season wrong there, hopefully wrong on the majors too.
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Rafael wants to pop out an eye soo much!!! I hope he does soon... and by the way Here is some info from a nearby buoy

Recent Conditions -- E Bahamas

Air temperature: 27.5 °C (82.1 °F)
Dewpoint temperature: 24.4 °C (76.5 °F)
Sea level pressure: 1002.4 hPa (29.6 in)
Significant wave height: 4.8 m (15.7 ft)Water temperature: 28.8 °C (84.5 °F)
Wind gust speed: 12.0 m/s (23.3 kts)
Wind speed: 10.0 m/s (19.4 kts)
Last reported: 10:49 PM GMT 10/15/2012

From the National Data Buoy Center
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Quoting lobdelse81:

I like your Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle icon! Is that supposed to be Rafael?

Thanks and yeah it's Rafael.
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350. Skyepony (Mod)
Rafael has had steady strengthening today..

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If Rafael starts popping out an eye, watch out for quick intensification. Situation reminds me of Ophelia last year. Had a feeling this might happen.
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348. Skyepony (Mod)
The atmosphere%u2019s shift of state and the origin of extreme weather events

The consequences for the biosphere of accelerating climate change are discussed by Baronsky et al in the following terms:

Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole can react in the same way and is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence.

Climates found at present on 10-20percent of the planet are projected to disappear within a century, and climates that contemporary organisms have never experienced are likely to cover 12-20percent of Earth. The mean global temperature by 2070 (or possibly a few decades earlier) will be higher than it has been since the human species evolved.

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Time: 23:53:30Z
Coordinates: 24.4167N 65.5833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 699.8 mb (~ 20.67 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 2,925 meters (~ 9,596 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 969.5 mb (~ 28.63 inHg)
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Quoting Ameister12:

That's from the 5pm discussion, before it was classified as a hurricane. We won't see the next discussion until 11pm.

I like your Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle icon! Is that supposed to be Rafael?
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344. Skyepony (Mod)
em>GEORGE TOWN - Travellers at the Penang International Airport were caught off guard yesterday when there was a “downpour” at the ticketing counter.

Heavy rainfall, which began at 4am, had caused part of the ceiling to collapse resulting in water gushing out from the ceiling about 8am, surprising passengers who were getting ready to board their flights.

A 26-year-old customer service agent was slightly injured when plaster from the ceiling fell on her. She received outpatient treatment at Penang Hospital.

Malaysia Airports Berhad (MAB) senior manager Mohd Arif Jaafar told theSun that airport personnel cleared up the mess by 8.30am and operations resumed within an hour.
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343. Skyepony (Mod)
They found the two hikers today, that were lost due to the snow in Glacier National Forest.
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Watch this bouy 41049 located in the track of Rafael SSE of Bermuda.

Link
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Quoting SLU:
THE ORGANIZATION OF RAFAEL HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE SINCE THIS
MORNING. MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST TILT BETWEEN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS DUE TO
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES ONCE AGAIN
SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF IMPROVED
SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT SFMR SURFACE
WIND MEASUREMENTS...RAFAEL REMAINS A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM.

So if it is finally a hurricane now, but it "changed very little since this morning" that suggests that it's been a hurricane all day based on the evidence.

That's from the 5pm discussion, before it was classified as a hurricane. We won't see the next discussion until 11pm.
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340. Skyepony (Mod)
The U.S. Small Business Administration has approved more than $63 million in federal disaster loans for Louisiana homeowners, renters and businesses who sustained damage from Hurricane Isaac.

SBA District Director Michael Ricks said the agency approved $60 million in loans to 1,865 residents and $3.2 million in loans to 90 businesses and private, nonprofit organizations impacted by the disaster.

Individuals and business owners who sustained property damage should first register with the Federal Emergency Management Agency before the Oct. 30 deadline by calling (800) 621-3362. Individuals who are deaf or hard-of-hearing can call TTY (800) 462-7585.

Disaster loans up to $200,000 are available to homeowners to repair or replace their damaged or destroyed primary residence.

Homeowners and renters are eligible for up to $40,000 to repair or replace damaged or destroyed personal property.

Businesses of any size and private, nonprofit organizations can borrow up to $2 million to repair or replace damaged or destroyed real estate, machinery and equipment, inventory and other business assets
more here
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Quoting Thing342:
I think Leslie was a 968 mb TS for a point, right when it hit Newfoundland.

Some TS at that latitude are like that. I think he means for the first advisory as a hurricane. It sure is a low pressure.
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338. Skyepony (Mod)
Louisiana’s state-run property insurer of last resort says it’s settled 85 percent of the more than 17,000 claims it received about damage from Hurricane Isaac.

The company — Louisiana Citizens Property Insurance Corp. — said Monday that it expects Isaac to cost between $75 million and $100 million.

Nearly $58 million has been paid out so far.

A large portion of the claims, 40 percent, didn’t reach the damage threshold to top the hurricane deductible for properties. Citizens says the most common claim has been for wind damage to roofs and the water damage caused by the leaking roofs.
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337. Skyepony (Mod)
Homeowners and renters have been approved for $105 million in individual aid from the Federal Emergency Management Agency since Hurricane Isaac.

More than 29,000 people have received housing assistance, which totals nearly $86 million. Another $19 million has been provided for other types of individual assistance, according to FEMA.

FEMA spokesman Ray Perez provided the latest figures Monday.

Isaac made landfall Aug. 28 and caused significant flooding in southeast Louisiana.

Perez said $34 million has been approved for residents of St. John the Baptist Parish and Plaquemines Parish, which experienced among the most extensive flooding from the storm.

More than $14 million has been provided to residents of Jefferson Parish.
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So Rafael is going from turtle to ninja at last, Splinter would be proud. Up 15 mph in three hours' time.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Central pressure of 974mb for first hurricane advisory of Rafael ..... is that a record low for a first advisory??
I think Leslie was a 968 mb TS for a point, right when it hit Newfoundland.
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
800 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012

...RAFAEL STRENGTHENS SOME MORE AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 65.7W
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
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Central pressure of 974mb for first hurricane advisory of Rafael ..... is that a record low for a first advisory??


Btw, Lance Armstrong is the Bernie Madeoff of world sport.
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331. Skyepony (Mod)
The Federal On-Scene Coordinator for the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in New Orleans issued a Notice of Federal Interest to BP and Transocean Tuesday. Coast Guard Capt. Duke Walker issued the NOFI following sample results from an oil sheen located in the vicinity of where the Deepwater Horizon drill rig exploded and sank more than two years ago. The sheen was first reported to the National Response Center Sept. 16 by BP based on satellite images from the 9th and 14th overpasses in the Mississippi Canyon, block 252, approximately 50 miles off the coast of Louisiana. The sheen is not feasible to recover and does not pose a risk to the shoreline. The Coast Guard, in concert with BP and NOAA, has conducted regular assessments of the sheen by aircraft and boat since its discovery. The observed sheen size has varied over time depending upon the conditions present. Samples of the sheen were taken by Coast Guard Marine Safety Unit Morgan City Sept. 26 and sent to the Coast Guard Marine Safety Lab in New London, Conn. The Marine Safety Laboratory results indicate the sheen correlates to oil that originated from BP’s Macondo Well. The exact source of the sheen is uncertain at this time but could be residual oil associated with wreckage and/or debris left on the seabed from the Deepwater Horizon incident in 2010. The NOFI effectively informs BP and Transocean that the Coast Guard matched the sheen samples to the Deepwater Horizon spill or sunken drilling debris and that either party or both may be held accountable for any cost associated with further assessments or operations related to this sheen. The Gulf Coast Incident Management Team remains committed to the continued cleanup of the Gulf Coast and all shorelines affected as a result of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig explosion. The FOSC is determined to continue response activities to remove all oil where it is technologically feasible, environmentally beneficial and safe for workers to perform recovery operations.
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74 kt FL, 76 kt SFMR, pressure 969mb.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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