September 2012: Earth's warmest September on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:01 PM GMT on October 15, 2012

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September 2012 was tied with 2005 as the globe's warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Global temperature records begin in 1880. NASA rated September 2012 the 4th warmest September on record. September 2012 global land temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record. September 2012 was the 331st consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time Earth had a below-average September global temperature was in 1976, and the last below-average month of any kind was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in September 2012 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 5th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of September 2012 in his September 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2012, which tied 2005 as the warmest September on record. Parts of east central Russia observed record warmth, as did parts of Venezuela, French Guinea, and northern Brazil. Nearly all of South America was much warmer than average, as were western Australia and central to eastern Europe. Far eastern Russia, a few regions in southern Africa, and parts of China were cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch continues
Neutral El Niño conditions exist in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were 0.1°C above average as of October 15. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has issued an El Niño watch, and gives a 55% chance that an El Niño event will be in place during the October - November - December period. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C above average or warmer to be considered an El Niño. El Niño conditions tend to bring cooler and wetter winter weather to the Southern U.S.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in September 2012 was the lowest measured, since satellite records began in 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Arctic sea ice falls to lowest extent on record in September
Arctic sea ice extent during September reached its lowest extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). As of October 14, Arctic sea extent had set a new record low for the date every day since July 27. I have much more to say about this year's extraordinary loss of Arctic sea ice in my September 20, 2012 post, Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting AussieStorm:

You might want to rethink that. You know he has been exposed as the Bernie Madoff of world sport.
The news and proof of his cheating may have quashed his engagement to Cynthia DeBoyle. He planned on using her surname upon marriage and becoming Lance DeBoyle.
Now what?
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Quoting Chicklit:
Sorry, I know this is off-topic, but Armstrong is toast. Looking forward to cooler weather here in ECFL. Grateful for all the rain we've had, too. Amazing it took Felix 2 hours to go up and less than 10 seconds to come down. Too busy to follow the weather lately. Glad you are all keeping tabs for us. goodnight!
I believe he actually fell for around 10 minutes, with 4:22 of that being free fall.
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 441
My prediction for RAFAEL'S FORECAST INTENSITY
6 HRS - 90 MPH
12 HRS - 105 MPH
18 HRS - 110 MPH
24 HRS - 120 MPH
36 HRS - 115 MPH
48 HRS - 100 MPH
72 HRS - 90 MPH
96 HRS - 80 MPH
120 HRS - 70 MPH

Realistically I believe once Rafael is set up with a full structured Eyewall ( About 6 hours out ) He will be capable of going through RI for a brief 6 hour period over the next 24 hours... Which leads me to believe Rafael will reach Borderline Category 3 Status.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Doesnt anyone like the CV wave at 11.2 33w?

Ive been touting it for days!!! I have a lot of money riding on this wave. 2 days ago, I unofficially named it Sandy, with est. press. of 1004, 40mph.

The BOATS model that I use takes the winds to 70 by Wed. PM.

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Quoting weatherbro:


If this happens, watch for a massive Davis Straight/Yukon/Labrador block to follow!

What is a Yukon/Labrador block and what weather is significant as a result of that?
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Sorry, I know this is off-topic, but Armstrong is toast. Looking forward to cooler weather here in ECFL. Grateful for all the rain we've had, too. Amazing it took Felix 2 hours to go up and less than 10 seconds to come down. Too busy to follow the weather lately. Glad you are all keeping tabs for us. goodnight!
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424. whitewabit (Mod)
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Quoting sunlinepr:


It looks as though Rafael is meandering east... every degree east he goes off the forecast track, the more unsettling of a scenario for Bermuda is possible. I always thought that, if he grew strong enough, he could wedge his way further east is he felt like it. Guess he feels like it.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 617
Quoting Astrometeor:


I support Lance.

You might want to rethink that. You know he has been exposed as the Bernie Madoff of world sport.
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421. Skyepony (Mod)
12Zcmc has a tropical depression hitting the Yucatan in 5 days..the remnants of Patty.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
If Rafael starts popping out an eye, watch out for quick intensification. Situation reminds me of Ophelia last year. Had a feeling this might happen.


If this happens, watch for a massive Davis Straight/Labrador block to follow!
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Inside my house it's 71F outside it's 88F.

Quick question, anyone a Lance Armstrong fan/supporter?


Inside my house it's 62F and outside it's 44.7F.

And I don't care much for Lance, never watched him race.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Inside my house it's 71F outside it's 88F.

Quick question, anyone a Lance Armstrong fan/supporter?


I support Lance.
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Inside my house it's 71F outside it's 88F.

Quick question, anyone a Lance Armstrong fan/supporter?
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eye spy
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I finished my special update on Rafael, Paul, and future development, feel free to check it out.

I am going to bed, night everyone. I can't wait to see how strong Rafael is in the morning.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


top picture shows the broom
racing in to sweep em away
not much time maybe till sunrise
that will be it

this is his last dance

Per comment 401...I agree with you...but you put it more poetically...
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Do we have any evidence that Raf's central pressure is bombing out? If not...guess I'll have to wait till 11 PM for the NHC update...
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Nice outflow






top picture shows the broom
racing in to sweep em away
not much time maybe till sunrise
that will be it

this is his last dance
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56021
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Hurricane Paul appears to begin weakening. The eye is becoming more cloud-filled, and the convection around the eye is diminishing.

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404. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting AussieStorm:

What did Anais peak at, must of been a quick peak before weakening.


around 130 MPH (1 min)

highest advisory from RSMC was 100 knots.
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The tremendous latent heat release from the condensation of the -90C cloud tops has inflated his warm core upper ridge to the degree that the incoming wind shear has been warded off...but the shear should increase tomorrow...so this is Raf's night to do something if he wants to now...
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Nice outflow




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Quoting JLPR2:
I'm kinda waiting to see if the tail ever reaches PR.

XD

Sorry...not likely to happen...this is the furthest west Rafael will get...so that tail sliding further west is unlikely...
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Rafael is growing.

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Quoting Thing342:
I think it found a pressure of 969mb, but I'm not sure.


Dude...Raf's the man! I like the nickname Raf...
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
This is a whole different ball game than last night. What's the scoop with Raf? Did the leaving recon plane find pressure lower than 974 mb?
I think it found a pressure of 969mb, but I'm not sure.
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 441
This is a whole different ball game than last night. What's the scoop with Raf? Did the leaving recon plane find pressure lower than 974 mb?
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394. JLPR2
I'm kinda waiting to see if the tail ever reaches PR.

XD
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Quoting Grothar:


Powerful looking right now.



well i would not want to be out there hiding under the wheel house table
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56021
392. JLPR2
Rafael grew quite a bit today.

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I think the only time I have seen that much yellow was in a Pacific storm. This is incredible.



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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
if R dont wane with his current cycle we could likly have a major in the basin in 4 hrs from now edt


Powerful looking right now.

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


its going the wrong way gro

big picture



I thought GeoffWPB was assigned to to "The Big Picture" images.
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Trick or Treat?

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At 0z, Rafael had a central pressure of 989mb with winds of 60kt. 24h later, an air force plane reported a central pressure of 969 mb. That is 20 Mb in 24h, just under the cusp of RI. (1mb/h)
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 441
Quoting Grothar:


its going the wrong way gro

big picture

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56021
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
if R dont wane with his current cycle we could likly have a major in the basin in 4 hrs from now edt

I guess for that to happen, the winds need to catch up to the pressure. Does Rafael have enough time, yes he has.
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ANAIS

What did Anais peak at, must of been a quick peak before weakening.
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if R dont wane with his current cycle we could likly have a major in the basin in 4 hrs from now edt
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56021
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380. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ANAIS (01-20122013)
4:30 AM RET October 16 2012
==========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Anais (988 hPa) located at 13.8S 62.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/4.0/W1.0/6 HRS

Storm Force Winds
====================
from the center, extending up to 45 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 50 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 10 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 95 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 150 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 165 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 15.5S 58.3E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 16.7S 55.4E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
======================

Anais is weakening rapidly under increasing north to northwesterly shear and low oceanic heat contain. N18 AMSUB imagery of 2245z show an exposed low level circulation center located 20-30 NM to the north of the residual convection that appears shapeless. Consequently the Dvorak constraints are broken for the present intensity estimate. It remains in the lower side of the other available estimate (PGTW at 4.5, Advance Dvorak Techneque at 4.5 but displaced the center, SATCON at 81 kt at 2200z, 1 min wind)

Available numerical guidance (1200z) are now in better agreement for the long term track forecast. The recurvature scenario appear less likely and anais should remain under the steering influence of a low to mid-level ridge located to its southeast and follow a general west southwards track.

Environmental conditions are expected to remain unfavorable over the forecast period and Anais should be below tropical storm strength within the next 24 to 36 hours.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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