September 2012: Earth's warmest September on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:01 PM GMT on October 15, 2012

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September 2012 was tied with 2005 as the globe's warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Global temperature records begin in 1880. NASA rated September 2012 the 4th warmest September on record. September 2012 global land temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record. September 2012 was the 331st consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time Earth had a below-average September global temperature was in 1976, and the last below-average month of any kind was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in September 2012 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 5th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of September 2012 in his September 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2012, which tied 2005 as the warmest September on record. Parts of east central Russia observed record warmth, as did parts of Venezuela, French Guinea, and northern Brazil. Nearly all of South America was much warmer than average, as were western Australia and central to eastern Europe. Far eastern Russia, a few regions in southern Africa, and parts of China were cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch continues
Neutral El Niño conditions exist in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were 0.1°C above average as of October 15. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has issued an El Niño watch, and gives a 55% chance that an El Niño event will be in place during the October - November - December period. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C above average or warmer to be considered an El Niño. El Niño conditions tend to bring cooler and wetter winter weather to the Southern U.S.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in September 2012 was the lowest measured, since satellite records began in 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Arctic sea ice falls to lowest extent on record in September
Arctic sea ice extent during September reached its lowest extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). As of October 14, Arctic sea extent had set a new record low for the date every day since July 27. I have much more to say about this year's extraordinary loss of Arctic sea ice in my September 20, 2012 post, Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TomballTXPride:
Haha. You Guys crack me up. Showing models that are 384 hours out. Salivating from the mouth when you see that category 2 barreling down on South Florida's most populated cities. Hoping, wishing, and praying for that halloween hollowler. What a shame. Really. What a shame.

What? no no no no no...
I'm not hoping for a strong hurricane to impact FL or any land on Halloween. All I'm saying is the GFS is super consistent with developing a hurricane and sending toward Fl.
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Quoting Autistic2:
I think any model at 360 hours is a pipe dream!

Long range shows where conditions would be favorable and if a model consistently develops a storm you know conditions should be conducive. They do have a purpose, which isn't just for entertainment.
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The GFS is showing remarkable consistency for a powerful hurricane affecting Florida around Halloween, especially with it being in the long-range. This situation needs to be watched.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32820
I think any model at 360 hours is a pipe dream!
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6Z GFS 384HR
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00z Euro is very different from GFS on intensity and track. This is at 240 hours.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14892

Tornado at Marseille/France, hitting a parking lot, Oct 14th.
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Charley part 2?
End of the 06z run:


Also recon is on its way into Rafael.
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Morning/Evening all. A nice 54 degrees here this morning, though it will be in the 80s later on. Everyone have a great Tuesday, or hope you had a great Tuesday. *S*
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Good morning, Rafael...
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Good morning everyone, I see Paul is slowly weakening and Rafael is holding strength. The 00z and 06zGFS both show a hurricane again while the Euro doesn't show too much.
00z GFS at 384hrs:


06z GFS, run just finishing up, at 360hrs:
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:


So when is this from ? Were supposed to have a hurricane here in So Fla ? Next week ? You put this up but no commentary ?
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Does anyone has the 00z Euro to see if it continues to show the Caribbean development?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14892
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42085
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7-Day for the Tampa Bay area...................
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Good Morning folks!.......................
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Quoting Skyepony:
Looks like they are testing GOES-13. We should be looking at that through GOES-14 & seeing GOES-14 through GOES-east (13)..


*Topic: *A Test of GOES-13 Imager and Sounder data is scheduled for
October 15, 2012
*Date/Time Issued:***October 15, 2012 1230 UTC
*Product(s) or Data Impacted:* GOES-13 Imager and Sounder Data.
GOES-14
users will receive GOES-13 data during the test period.
*Date/Time of Initial Impact:* October 15, 2012 1545 UTC
*Date/Time of Expected End:* October 16, 2012 1545 UTC
*Length of Test:***24 hours
*Details/Specifics of Change: *The Office of Satellite and Product
Operations (OSPO) is planning to begin a 24 hour quantitative
evaluation test of GOES-13 Imager and Sounder data and level 2 products
at approximately 1545 UTC on October 15, 2012. This will require a
complex rebroadcast and distribution scenario, where GOES-13 data will
be broadcast via GOES-14 while we continue to broadcast the operational
GOES-14 data via GOES-13. Upon conclusion of the test after 24 hours,
the rebroadcast scenario will return to distribution of GOES-14
via both
GOES-14 and GOES-13 GVAR transmissions while GOES-13 returns to standby
status. No actions are required by users for the purposes of this
test.
Results will be evaluated following the 24 hour test to determine
next
steps with the GOES constellation.

This should be GOES-13 as viewed through GOES-14..you can toggle between 13 & 14 here. Goes-14 (13) looks positioned farther east. I think GOES-13 maybe alive:)
Quoting Skyepony:
Check out the 8 image animation coming out of Goes-14. You can see where it starts with the farther west GOES-14 then shifts a good bit as GOES-13 starts feeding through it, only the Northern Hemisphere working at first.
GOES-13 is working!!!

Best news I've heard all day.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


The upper atmosphere is beginning to cool overall as we head into October, Wilma took advantage of that general cooling as well. It's pretty interesting, that October can sometimes offer a better vertical profile than earlier in the season, it's just that getting the tropical cyclones to actually form in October isn't as easy.
That is very true actually. Something I had never considered before. Just had an epiphany!

I recently noticed that most of the most intense tropical cyclones in their respective basins (Tip, Wilma, Monica, etc.) all occurred late in their respective seasons. And the reason for this is exactly what you just described...a more unstable atmosphere. The upper atmosphere cools, while the high heat capacity of the ocean means that in the deep tropics the ocean remains warm. So really, in the deep tropics, the atmosphere is most unstable from September to mid October...which is slightly after the peak in tropical activity (in terms of storm formation).
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hi
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Not like anyone's up, but I did another late night blog.
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502. TXCWC
BOTH GFS AND EURO Operational AND ENSEMBLES show Carribean development in about 10 days in same general area...is an area that needs to be watched closely.

12Z EURO 10 DAYS



12Z GFS 12 DAYS



0Z GFS 10 DAYS



0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN 10 DAYS



12Z EURO ENSEMBLE MEAN 10 DAYS

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Hey... I finally get 2 minutes to get into the blog and everybody else leaves... lol

I'm up late completing a project [just waiting while it prints now] and then I'll be off to bed myself...

We had a spectacular day today, and even though the heat was penetrating this afternoon it never got quite as muggy as it did last week... hopefully the cooldown lasts... I'm also eying the GFS with a bit of trepidation; the Cuban crossing storms usually aren't too bad for us, but given that we haven't had much action all season, anything that gets into our waters with favorable conditions aloft will have some latitude to do some damage on the way out to sea....

But we shall see...

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night all iam gone see ya for a bit before 9am
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499. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting Skyepony:
Check out the 8 image animation coming out of Goes-14. You can see where it starts with the farther west GOES-14 then shifts a good bit as GOES-13 starts feeding through it, only the Northern Hemisphere working at first.


a little interference when they switched but good feed after that .. wonder what they did to it ???
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498. Skyepony (Mod)
Check out the 8 image animation coming out of Goes-14. You can see where it starts with the farther west GOES-14 then shifts a good bit as GOES-13 starts feeding through it, only the Northern Hemisphere working at first.
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Quoting Skyepony:
The consolidating over Cuba this run is a bit out there. The way MJO is coming though, might as well watch it.

lets see what the next 24 hrs bring i guess
if its still there tomorrow night this time
that will be 60 hrs of showing something
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56050
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

At this point, it doesn't matter where the GFS puts the storm right now, or how strong it is... The fact that it has consistently shown that system for almost 3 days straight now, means we have to watch that area for sure... We can figure out the details of Track and Intensity when it is needed, as of right now.....
We wait.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56050
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56050
493. Skyepony (Mod)
The consolidating over Cuba this run is a bit out there. The way MJO is coming though, might as well watch it.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
I see folks have been posting images of that storm the GFS predicts near south Florida 100s of hours out...I ain't believing till we're close...
been showing it last 36 hrs dose not hurt to to check and its further east this run east cuba cen bahamas exit maybe
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56050
Quoting allancalderini:
Fine and you.I see College has you busy.
Doing well just been really busy with college stuff. It has been a lot of fun though, gotta love college life
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i too will be happy if goes 13 comes back better image but 14 has and will do the job and will be good enough if 13 is a no go
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56050
I see folks have been posting images of that storm the GFS predicts near south Florida 100s of hours out...I ain't believing till we're close...
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I have done my 24-hourly detailed blog update...talks about good ol' Raf & the Atlantic in detail as usual...

And I am excited they are trying to get GOES-13 back. I though they had forgotten. My charts in my blog heavily depend on GOES-13...so I had to stitch together GOES-14 and Meteosat-9 since the outage...and I think I've gotten quiet skilled at it as seen in my newest blog posts...
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56050
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56050
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56050
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56050
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56050
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56050
Rafael had an eye visable for a while but it's hard to see now. He still looks impressive tonight. I love the colors in Intellicast images. :)



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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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