September 2012: Earth's warmest September on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:01 PM GMT on October 15, 2012

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September 2012 was tied with 2005 as the globe's warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Global temperature records begin in 1880. NASA rated September 2012 the 4th warmest September on record. September 2012 global land temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record. September 2012 was the 331st consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time Earth had a below-average September global temperature was in 1976, and the last below-average month of any kind was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in September 2012 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 5th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of September 2012 in his September 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2012, which tied 2005 as the warmest September on record. Parts of east central Russia observed record warmth, as did parts of Venezuela, French Guinea, and northern Brazil. Nearly all of South America was much warmer than average, as were western Australia and central to eastern Europe. Far eastern Russia, a few regions in southern Africa, and parts of China were cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch continues
Neutral El Niño conditions exist in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were 0.1°C above average as of October 15. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has issued an El Niño watch, and gives a 55% chance that an El Niño event will be in place during the October - November - December period. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C above average or warmer to be considered an El Niño. El Niño conditions tend to bring cooler and wetter winter weather to the Southern U.S.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in September 2012 was the lowest measured, since satellite records began in 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Arctic sea ice falls to lowest extent on record in September
Arctic sea ice extent during September reached its lowest extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). As of October 14, Arctic sea extent had set a new record low for the date every day since July 27. I have much more to say about this year's extraordinary loss of Arctic sea ice in my September 20, 2012 post, Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low.

Jeff Masters

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funny thing about this supposed storm..whatever it turns out to be..we must remember this is october and IF the models are correct this comes up along the southern western part of florida then crosses over florida into the atlantic..IF this does happen...its the normal thing for a storm to do in this month..which is why florida especially has to watch all storms in the carribean and the gulf..the pattern is to push it eastward
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33236
Quoting Grothar:
..GRO, are you concerned at all about this or is it true, its just way too far out to start worrying about it..me, I am seeing the good models saying it now for 4-5 days straight, same thing in the same area..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33236
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246 hours, this shows about where it forms supposedly.....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33236
Rafeal looking nice.Was a cool morning here and it seems are temps all week long are going to stay average to slightly below average through the week.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'm not sure if you have noticed, but we don't just do that for systems that want to hit Florida, we do that for every run past 300 hours that shows anything out in the Atlantic. Saying that we all want something to hit Florida when we post a frame from a MODEL RUN is ridiculous and unfair to claim. You're asking a blog full of weather enthusiasts to not discuss a possibility of a major system. We don't want death, we don't want destruction, we're just posting a frame from a model run. Anyone with half a brain knows they change, we've been seeing it change again and again. If you don't like it, then you can ignore it. It's that easy. I'm sorry but this just irks me, it's like going on a forum for people who like to research and discuss about different spiders (and yes, those exist), and having severe arachnophobia.

GFS illustrating the threatening October pattern in the Caribbean that has been talked about. We already got Rafael to the east, but the GFS shows the potential for another storm to form within a significant monsoonal moisture surge during the 10-15 day period.

Credit to Levi
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33236
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33236
Quoting LargoFl:
folks, some of you have good models..please post if any of them form this storm earlier than 252 hours ok..GFS says it forms somewhere below Cuba..lets follow this and see if it does form as the models seem to say ok.....
just looked at the south american GFS and it shows the storm forming at 240 hours..its not wavering in its prediction at all.
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Rafael
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folks, some of you have good models..please post if any of them form this storm earlier than 252 hours ok..GFS says it forms somewhere below Cuba..lets follow this and see if it does form as the models seem to say ok.....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33236
GFS at 252 hours rainfall model..shows it forming..........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33236
OK..so for 5 days straight the GFS has said something forms below cuba then moves up into florida, ok yes, its more than a week away but..every day now we follow this model and see what happens..hmmm comes next friday if its STILL listing this storm..then we start preparing, my only hope is that it doesnt come faster and surprise us all..we'll see what happens, way too early yet to even be concerned..just something we wait to see if it Does form huh....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33236
GFS at 276 hours,under Cuba..............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33236
GFS at 384 hours,GFS still puts it into south florida...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33236
Quoting VR46L:


Did you ever hear the saying it takes one to know one ....

Rafael in rainbow




Since when is posting scientific results consider being a troll?

Oh the humanity.
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iam out of here be back at lunch got to go do an eviction this am
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Atcf Data says that Rafael was an 80-KT storm since about 18z.
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Good Morning!

Brrrr..cold over here in NC..A very beautiful morning!
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<
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Quoting TomballTXPride:
I mean you Guys can't even tell me the origin of the system let alone whether or not it'll develop out of a CV, wave, frontal system, disturbance, etc. What does that tell you Guys? This is nothing more than a pipe dream, like Autistic mentioned. At least if you guys can point to a feature where the models suggest this thing will provide cyclogenesis from I'll give you that. But you are doing nothing more than looking at a long range model and basically nodding your heads agreeing with everything it says. Is that how forecasting works? No.
from what I am seeing is that the Gfs is consistence on develop something the SW Caribbean. it may go North,East or West but at least is there and getting closer and if you notice other models are starting to get the idea of something developing there.
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556. VR46L
Quoting Neapolitan:
see a few of the site's intrepid trolls are out this morning trying to stir up the attention they crave. A reminder: the site's "ignore" feature continues to work very well...


Did you ever hear the saying it takes one to know one ....

Rafael in rainbow


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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
6Z GFS 384HR

We certainly wouldn't want any campaign yard signs to blow away. Trick, or treat!
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Big companies have been brought down by falsifying documents and misleading investors. Hmmmmm.
Member Since: June 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 885
Recon has hit the center and found this as the lowest pressure( at least that I found).
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 970.7 mb (~ 28.66 inHg)
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I see a few of the site's intrepid trolls are out this morning trying to stir up the attention they crave. A reminder: the site's "ignore" feature continues to work very well...

Anyway, speaking about the current blog topic, the very excellent Climate Progress site is out this morning with an article titled, "Ten Charts That Make Clear The Planet Just Keeps Warming". It's obviously a response--a scientific beatdown, really--to that imbecilic Daily Mail op-ed piece written by serial distortionist David Rose that's been all the rage among the denialist set for the past several days. I urge you to read the entire article. But in the meantime, here are a few of those graphs, each of them easily understandable by even the most ardent denialist:

warming

warming

warming

Has global warming ceased? Paused? Not remotely. The planet is cooling only in the fevered fantasies of Big Oil and Big Coal CEOs and the politicians who feed off them.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13256
Quoting TomballTXPride:
I mean you Guys can't even tell me the origin of the system let alone whether or not it'll develop out of a CV, wave, frontal system, disturbance, etc. What does that tell you Guys? This is nothing more than a pipe dream, like Autistic mentioned. At least if you guys can point to a feature where the models suggest this thing will provide cyclogenesis from I'll give you that. But you are doing nothing more than looking at a long range model and basically nodding your heads agreeing with everything it says. Is that how forecasting works? No.


that was a little rude from you... show me your BS degree..
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Quoting TomballTXPride:
I mean you Guys can't even tell me the origin of the system let alone whether or not it'll develop out of a CV, wave, frontal system, disturbance, etc. What does that tell you Guys? This is nothing more than a pipe dream, like Autistic mentioned. At least if you guys can point to a feature where the models suggest this thing will provide cyclogenesis from I'll give you that. But you are doing nothing more than looking at a long range model and basically nodding your heads agreeing with everything it says. Is that how forecasting works? No.

Since when have you become the expert? Since you obviously know more than us and other meteorologists. I would love to see you make forecasts on tropical systems and such. What is your problem this morning?

...RAFAEL CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...
8:00 AM AST Tue Oct 16
Location: 27.3°N 65.0°W
Moving: NNE at 16 mph
Min pressure: 974 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph
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Quoting TomballTXPride:
I mean you Guys can't even tell me the origin of the system let alone whether or not it'll develop out of a CV, wave, frontal system, disturbance, etc. What does that tell you Guys? This is nothing more than a pipe dream, like Autistic mentioned. At least if you guys can point to a feature where the models suggest this thing will provide cyclogenesis from I'll give you that. But you are doing nothing more than looking at a long range model and basically agreeing with everything it says.

It comes from the monsoon trough if you had been paying any attention. Meaning you're not necessarily GOING to be able to track it until shower and thunderstorm activity begins to increase and consolidate in the SW Caribbean.
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HURRICANE PAUL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
500 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012

THIS IS SPECIAL ADVISORY TO UPDATE THE TRACK FORECAST FOR
PAUL...WHICH IS MOVING FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THIS MEANS THAT LANDFALL IS LIKELY TO OCCUR WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1200Z 22.9N 112.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 25.8N 111.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/0600Z 27.0N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1800Z 27.5N 114.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0600Z 28.6N 115.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 19/0600Z 31.0N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/FRANKLIN
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Quoting TomballTXPride:
Haha. You Guys crack me up. Showing models that are 384 hours out. Salivating from the mouth when you see that category 2 barreling down on South Florida's most populated cities. Hoping, wishing, and praying for that halloween hollowler. What a shame. Really. What a shame.


I'm not sure if you have noticed, but we don't just do that for systems that want to hit Florida, we do that for every run past 300 hours that shows anything out in the Atlantic. Saying that we all want something to hit Florida when we post a frame from a MODEL RUN is ridiculous and unfair to claim. You're asking a blog full of weather enthusiasts to not discuss a possibility of a major system. We don't want death, we don't want destruction, we're just posting a frame from a model run. Anyone with half a brain knows they change, we've been seeing it change again and again. If you don't like it, then you can ignore it. It's that easy. I'm sorry but this just irks me, it's like going on a forum for people who like to research and discuss about different spiders (and yes, those exist), and having severe arachnophobia.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23011
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Because I can't seem to find the system. Where is it right now?

This storm would come from lowering pressures in the SW Caribbean combined with the monsoon trough. It has been mentioned several times by several bloggers where this storm would come from.

I got to go, bye everyone.
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Levi actually made a comment on facebook this morning:

"GFS and ECMWF both illustrating the threatening October pattern in the Caribbean I have been talking about since September. We already got Rafael to the east, but here the GFS shows the potential for another storm to form within a significant monsoonal moisture surge during the 10-15 day period."
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Because I can't seem to find the system. Where is it right now?


Good point!
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Good. Big difference between you watching it and telling the rest of the blog readers that it needs to be watched, because it doesn't.

But knock yourself out, Cody.


I'll watch it also as it needs to be watched by us watchers watching
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Good. Big difference between you watching it and telling the rest of the blog readers that it needs to be watched, because it doesn't.

But knock yourself out, Cody.

Why doesn't it need to be watched in your opinion?
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

The situation does not have to be watched.

I'll still watch it as it should be watched.
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DID you all see the 00z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS!!!
Link
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

The situation does not have to be watched.

Ok, well...you keep doing whatever you're doing and I'll watch it.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Long range shows where conditions would be favorable and if a model consistently develops a storm you know conditions should be conducive. They do have a purpose, which isn't just for entertainment.


Ok well said, Conditions ok,
A major storm smaking someone in the face at 360 hours is, well, still a pipe dream, need I say what type of pipe?
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.