September 2012: Earth's warmest September on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:01 PM GMT on October 15, 2012

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September 2012 was tied with 2005 as the globe's warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Global temperature records begin in 1880. NASA rated September 2012 the 4th warmest September on record. September 2012 global land temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record. September 2012 was the 331st consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time Earth had a below-average September global temperature was in 1976, and the last below-average month of any kind was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in September 2012 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 5th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of September 2012 in his September 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2012, which tied 2005 as the warmest September on record. Parts of east central Russia observed record warmth, as did parts of Venezuela, French Guinea, and northern Brazil. Nearly all of South America was much warmer than average, as were western Australia and central to eastern Europe. Far eastern Russia, a few regions in southern Africa, and parts of China were cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch continues
Neutral El Niño conditions exist in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were 0.1°C above average as of October 15. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has issued an El Niño watch, and gives a 55% chance that an El Niño event will be in place during the October - November - December period. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C above average or warmer to be considered an El Niño. El Niño conditions tend to bring cooler and wetter winter weather to the Southern U.S.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in September 2012 was the lowest measured, since satellite records began in 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Arctic sea ice falls to lowest extent on record in September
Arctic sea ice extent during September reached its lowest extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). As of October 14, Arctic sea extent had set a new record low for the date every day since July 27. I have much more to say about this year's extraordinary loss of Arctic sea ice in my September 20, 2012 post, Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low.

Jeff Masters

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Largo, I love the way you post the most important weather, Florida's!!LOL I think a lot of people who come on here know the model runs that far out are pie in the sky. The problem with the postings is that old people like me can't read the fine print on the bottom. So I propose when someone posts a model run that they state the hours etc, so we don't have someone peeking in and getting worried. No one is going to get scared. They will just tune into their local weatherman and realize the posting for what it is.
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26529
78. SLU
15/1745 UTC 23.7N 65.8W T4.0/4.0 RAFAEL -- Atlantic
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
ECMWF 144 hrs. already shows a broad area of low pressure in the SW Caribbean.

some dont want to hear it GT..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
Quoting Thrawst:
Paul has a well defined eye now



I haven't seen tracks on an Epac storm come that close to Southern Cali since Linda back in 97. It will be interesting to see if the SW US gets any moisture out of this one. These pacific storms seem to intensify quickly this year.
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
200 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012

...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD VERY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 65.8W
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY...AND WILL APPROACH BERMUDA BY LATE TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED
STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAFAEL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SWELLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA BEGINNING LATER TODAY
AND WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
ECMWF 144 hrs. already shows a broad area of low pressure in the SW Caribbean.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
Ok so we Get TODAYS weather..................
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Rafael
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Paul

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Quoting Wunderwood:


Maybe so, but people don't frequent blogs like this one to see nothing form.


True, but nothing IS forming yet, all we have is a model run that is 300+ hours out.
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<
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<
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Quoting LargoFl:
yes thats true but..people informed about a possibility are forewarned..those who arent are caught by surprise..everyone IS saying..this is a long way off..


Seriously? I'm not trying to be mean here..but lets get real.. no one is going to be caught off guard if this is 144hrs out even.. people will know about it if it's even 3 days out. To post something beyond say 10 days is just childish and alarming.

Now it's okay if you want to look at it for fun.. but to post it where people who have no weather knowledge of knowing that these maps change every day will be alarmed and get scared.

Again, looking at it is for fun... but to post anything over 10 days is alarming and not cool. and if you want to really know if there is a 25% at most of it going to a location.. it's at 120hrs or 5 days out.. that's when you really have to start watching it.
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:


For entertainment purposes.
But I can recall quite a few 7-10 day forecasts that ended up coming true.

But as we know, the majority of the 7-10 day forecasts aren't much better than a blind person throwing darts at a map.


But if a Tropical system develops in the Western Carribean in 7-10 days, it will be interesting.
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Quoting KUEFC:


Fair enough, but there is just as much chance IMO that nothing forms.


Maybe so, but people don't frequent blogs like this one to see nothing form.
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Quoting scottsvb:
Why do you guys post stuff past 7 days? I mean really? It changes every day. Go buy a farmers alnamac if you want fantasy weather maps


For entertainment purposes.
But I can recall quite a few 7-10 day forecasts that ended up coming true.

But as we know, the majority of the 7-10 day forecasts aren't much better than a blind person throwing darts at a map.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
For Rafael.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 978.6mb/ 69.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.2 4.4 4.4
Without any new recon data, this should be upgraded to a Hurricane.
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 436
The ATCF has moved Rafael back to a tropical storm:

AL, 17, 2012101518, , BEST, 0, 236N, 658W, 60, 985, TS, 50, NEQ, 90, 50, 20, 50,

(It also changed the 12z best track data from a hurricane to a tropical storm, as well.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13571
NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center

The ribbon is being cut today at NOAA's new Center of Weather and Climate Prediction, located on the grounds of the University of Maryland in College Park.

The 268,000 square-foot building is home to more than 800 employees of NOAA, providing the nation with a broad range of environmental services. This includes NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, which creates the hurricane seasonal outlook for the Atlantic, eastern North Pacific and Central North Pacific Oceans. NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is also housed there, forecasting the large scale weather patterns.

Here is the link to the press release:

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20121015 _ncwcp.html
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For some reason... Rafael reminds me of Omar in 2008

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hey doc, what's your thoughts on the damage left by Rafael in the islands? Looks like on the level of Tomas.


If it's like that all over the Islands, Rafael may be a one-and-done name.
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Quoting LargoFl:
yes thats true but..people informed about a possibility are forewarned..those who arent are caught by surprise..everyone IS saying..this is a long way off..


Fair enough, but there is just as much chance IMO that nothing forms.
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NOAA42 and crew are on their way to Rafael
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For Rafael.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.2 / 978.6mb/ 69.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.2 4.4 4.4
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And its not a case of "finding a new blog", there is a reason why people like Dr Jeff dont mention anything past a certain time frame.
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Quoting KUEFC:
the key being that is a totally different run to the previous GFS, so why start worrying people? if it is in the 144 hour range then fine, but sureley not when its 300+ hours surely? we all know tracks etc change, and thats IF anything happens.
yes thats true but..people informed about a possibility are forewarned..those who arent are caught by surprise..everyone IS saying..this is a long way off..
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Quoting LargoFl:
4 days now same thing..just how long would it take to make a believer?..GFS at 10 days out has been very reliable so far..anyway i DO hope THIS time its wrong and NOTHING happens..florida does NOT need this now


Didnt it once say Rafael was a west carribean storm? just saying...
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
Paul has a well defined eye now

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the key being that is a totally different run to the previous GFS, so why start worrying people? if it is in the 144 hour range then fine, but sureley not when its 300+ hours surely? we all know tracks etc change, and thats IF anything happens.
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The ATCF says Paul has reached Cat 2 status:

EP, 16, 2012101518, , BEST, 0, 178N, 1144W, 85, 976, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 90, 60, 80,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13571
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
207 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012

PRC029-031-087-119-127-139-152100-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0384.121015T1807Z-121015T2100Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CANOVANAS PR-SAN JUAN PR-TRUJILLO ALTO PR-CAROLINA PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
LOIZA PR-
207 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS...SAN JUAN...TRUJILLO ALTO...CAROLINA...RIO GRANDE AND
LOIZA

* UNTIL 500 PM AST

* AT 207 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND
CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST
500 PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1838 6576 1832 6606 1838 6608 1846 6593
1846 6591

$$

CASTRO
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Quoting scottsvb:
Why do you guys post stuff past 7 days? I mean really? It changes every day. Go buy a farmers alnamac if you want fantasy weather maps
4 days now same thing..just how long would it take to make a believer?..GFS at 10 days out has been very reliable so far..anyway i DO hope THIS time its wrong and NOTHING happens..florida does NOT need this now
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
Quoting scottsvb:
Why do you guys post stuff past 7 days? I mean really? It changes every day. Go buy a farmers alnamac if you want fantasy weather maps


And go find a new blog if you don't like it.
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Quoting scottsvb:
Why do you guys post stuff past 7 days? I mean really? It changes every day. Go buy a farmers alnamac if you want fantasy weather maps


I look at them not for track, but to see if the potential for major development might exist in a few weeks. Past 240 hours is there for a reason, after all. We need to watch the SW Caribbean for lowering of pressures, as typical of October. We knew this was coming anyways, as the MJO is swinging around quite impressively to our basin.
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laughable
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Consistent sub 1010mb forecasts in Nassau the next 5-6 days... shows the MJO is creeping towards the Atlantic
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GFS at 372 hours this is NOT funny..whew...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
GFS at 360 hours,ok plenty of warning time floridians...
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Why do you guys post stuff past 7 days? I mean really? It changes every day. Go buy a farmers alnamac if you want fantasy weather maps
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Hey doc, what's your thoughts on the damage left by Rafael in the islands? Looks like on the level of Tomas.


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Quoting LargoFl:
GFS at 324 hours..something IS there alright...........


The GFS has been pretty consistant on something developing in the western Carribean or GOM in 7-10 days.
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GFS at 348 hours, south Florida pay attention...........
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If the Gfs is right Sandy will probably go out of the list.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Raf

I thought this would have been Hurricane Raf by now...certainly one of the best looking tropical storms I've seen for something that isn't a hurricane....sheesh...
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Why are we getting all bent out of shape over GW? We're all dead in about.. how long till the winter solstice Pat? ;)
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GFS at 324 hours..something IS there alright...........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.