September 2012: Earth's warmest September on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:01 PM GMT on October 15, 2012

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September 2012 was tied with 2005 as the globe's warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Global temperature records begin in 1880. NASA rated September 2012 the 4th warmest September on record. September 2012 global land temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record. September 2012 was the 331st consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time Earth had a below-average September global temperature was in 1976, and the last below-average month of any kind was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in September 2012 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 5th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of September 2012 in his September 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2012, which tied 2005 as the warmest September on record. Parts of east central Russia observed record warmth, as did parts of Venezuela, French Guinea, and northern Brazil. Nearly all of South America was much warmer than average, as were western Australia and central to eastern Europe. Far eastern Russia, a few regions in southern Africa, and parts of China were cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch continues
Neutral El Niño conditions exist in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were 0.1°C above average as of October 15. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has issued an El Niño watch, and gives a 55% chance that an El Niño event will be in place during the October - November - December period. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C above average or warmer to be considered an El Niño. El Niño conditions tend to bring cooler and wetter winter weather to the Southern U.S.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in September 2012 was the lowest measured, since satellite records began in 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Arctic sea ice falls to lowest extent on record in September
Arctic sea ice extent during September reached its lowest extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). As of October 14, Arctic sea extent had set a new record low for the date every day since July 27. I have much more to say about this year's extraordinary loss of Arctic sea ice in my September 20, 2012 post, Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low.

Jeff Masters

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360 hours

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
the canadian maritimes need to watch for this storm in the days to come..hopefully it will curve out to sea and not hit them


It probably won't... storms following his track either go into Newfoundland/Cape Breton or get absorbed by something that cuts a swath through the Maritimes and the rest of the Northeast. Like Leslie before Rafael, like Igor, Earl, Ophelia, Florence (2006), Kyle, Juan, yadda yadda...
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Almost off the scale, probably stronger than -2.
GT in a way i hope the models are wrong..so far it looks like WE here..get some of this whatever it becomes
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36837
Quoting AegirsGal:
Its headed our way...just looked at the radar...still around central Mass.
ok ty..stay safe up there
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36837
Quoting unknowncomic:
This looks strong?


Almost off the scale, probably stronger than -2.
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Quoting LostTomorrows:


And is that collossal extratropical low in the mid-North Atlantic the system that is powered by Rafael? Looks like a doozy and a half.
the canadian maritimes need to watch for this storm in the days to come..hopefully it will curve out to sea and not hit them
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36837
Quoting LargoFl:
MA hows the weather up by you? has the front reached to you yet?.chicago area had tornado's yesterday
Its headed our way...just looked at the radar...still around central Mass.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36837
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Euro is showing a low in the SW Caribbean as soon as 96 hours out, by 240 hours it's Sandy in the SW Caribbean, and Tony out in the Atlantic.


And is that collossal extratropical low in the mid-North Atlantic the system that is powered by Rafael? Looks like a doozy and a half.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good afternoon. Looks like we're getting a little agreement and consistency on a storm developing in 8-10 days or so. It's still a ways off but it makes sense we would see something in the Caribbean at that time.
MA hows the weather up by you? has the front reached to you yet?.chicago area had tornado's yesterday
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36837
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Keeper,12z EURO joins GFS.

they will all join eventually

i got to go be back soon break is up got 3 things to do day is done
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This looks strong?


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and with all the dry weather we have been having..another danger arises..................URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
244 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2012

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND ERC VALUES POSSIBLY
GREATER THAN 35...

.DRY CONDITIONS WILL FILL IN BEHIND MONDAY AFTERNOONS PASSING COLD
FRONT. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS WE WAIT FOR UPDATED ERC VALUES TO ARRIVE. SHOULD ERC
VALUES NOT REACH CRITICAL LEVELS...THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
DROPPED AS DISPERSIONS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS.

FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-12 8-134-170000-
/O.CON.KTAE.FW.A.0034.121016T1800Z-121017T0000Z/
INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-
CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-
MADISON-LIBERTY-INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-
INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-
COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-
COASTAL DIXIE-
244 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2012 /144 PM CDT MON OCT 15 2012/

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

* WIND...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...MINIMUM AROUND 30 PERCENT.

* DISPERSIONS...60 TO 70.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP COULD SPREAD RAPIDLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

&&

$$

HARRIGAN
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36837
Quoting 7544:


yep and it dont look like its going to ba another boring zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz strom lol
..yes it sure looks to be a good one, and..its going to give us days and days to watch it..which is cool too
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36837
Quoting presslord:


if I just had a nickel for every time....oh, forget it...


stop that now you

trouble maker

how are things in the ........

never mind i let someone else say it
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Good afternoon. Looks like we're getting a little agreement and consistency on a storm developing in 8-10 days or so. It's still a ways off but it makes sense we would see something in the Caribbean at that time.
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Quoting Grothar:


Florida has gotten hit with some good ones in October.
..yeah remember the big W
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36837
Quoting Grothar:


Florida has gotten hit with some good ones in October.
gets real cold after a storm in october
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Quoting Grothar:


It's so big, I want to name it!


if I just had a nickel for every time....oh, forget it...
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



getting closer now

next up 18z 2.5hrs


The suspense is killing me.
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Quoting LargoFl:
ok we watch that blob also..october sure can be active huh


Florida has gotten hit with some good ones in October.
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Quoting Grothar:



Just a hint of development. I don't look at anything more than two hours out. I would definitely watch the Southwest Caribbean though.







getting closer now

next up 18z 2.5hrs
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I like the 384 hour runs the best. Makes the week go by faster that we have something to watch. It's like watching my kids take their first steps. They fell down a lot but they eventually got it right.

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106. 7544
Quoting LargoFl:
see..they are pretty much saying the same thing..we'll see come this time next week what they are saying...but..its great to see something to watch huh


yep and it dont look like its going to ba another boring zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz strom lol
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Quoting Grothar:


Quite often they do. And with Rafael making a big dent in the high, it will leave a weakness in the ridge as well.
ok we watch that blob also..october sure can be active huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36837
Keeper,12z EURO joins GFS.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13993
Quoting ncstorm:
well, Im going to post what I want when it comes to the model runs..we got model agreement..if the long range models runs are useless, then someone please explain why they are there? it sure aint for entertainment purposes..

Euro 240 hours


12z GFS


12z GFS Ensemble spread
see..they are pretty much saying the same thing..we'll see come this time next week what they are saying...but..its great to see something to watch huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36837
102. 7544
Quoting LargoFl:
ok I have a question..12 hour rainfgall..850 vort AND 500 vort models all put this thing over south florida AND..the 500 vort model put it near or over tampa bay...can they all..be wrong?............this is the GFS 500 vort at 372 hours..I KNOW..its way way off time wise...............


hmm looks like for now we have 3 models showing this ahh ill say it future sandy fl storm stay tuned
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51. Tropicsweatherpr 4:59 PM GMT on October 15, 2012 +0
Quoting GTcooliebai:
GFS says Halloween storm for FL. starting to see consistency with development from run to run.



And the timeframe of development starts in 216 hours.


once a reflection is shown beginning at hr 156 of a long range it may very well be what it is

its continueing to show up it bears a watch
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Quoting LargoFl:
yes sure has alot of moisture with it, lets see where it goes over time..question..this time of year, dont things off africa recurve?


Quite often they do. And with Rafael making a big dent in the high, it will leave a weakness in the ridge as well.
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Euro is showing a low in the SW Caribbean as soon as 96 hours out, by 240 hours it's Sandy in the SW Caribbean, and Tony out in the Atlantic.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23562
ok I have a question..12 hour rainfall..850 vort AND 500 vort models all put this thing over south florida AND..the 500 vort model put it near or over tampa bay...can they all..be wrong?............this is the GFS 500 vort at 372 hours..I KNOW..its way way off time wise...............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36837
Quoting tatoprweather:
Any chance regarding development?



Just a hint of development. I don't look at anything more than two hours out. I would definitely watch the Southwest Caribbean though.




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I have 1011mb on 38W .... station 13008
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
well, Im going to post what I want when it comes to the model runs..we got model agreement..if the long range models runs are useless, then someone please explain why they are there? it sure aint for entertainment purposes..

Euro 240 hours


12z GFS


12z GFS Ensemble spread
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


It's so big, I want to name it!
yes sure has alot of moisture with it, lets see where it goes over time..question..this time of year, dont things off africa recurve?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36837
Quoting LargoFl:
..say gro..thats that huge blob that came off africa yesterday, sure is a big blog huh


It's so big, I want to name it!
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GFS at 336 hours.12 hour rainfall..notice the LOW......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36837
When forest fires burn, do they put harmful chemicals into our atmosphere?
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Paul's projected path, intensity may need to be adjusted upward if the ATCF numbers are right.

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
ECMWF 144 hrs. already shows a broad area of low pressure in the SW Caribbean.



Now we are talking about a much more credible timeframe (144 hours) that the 12z Euro starts to develop a low pressure. But we now have to see followups by this model in next runs to see if it continues to show it.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13993
Quoting Grothar:


Any chance regarding development?
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FWIW, the ATCF now says Paul is nearing Cat 3 status:

EP, 16, 2012101518, , BEST, 0, 178N, 1144W, 95, 968, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 20, 10, 20, 1009, 290, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, PAUL, D,
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Well it is just 6 days out and it may be monsoonal in nature which usually takes time to develop.
I look at it like this..the model for 3-4 days has said the same thing, on the long range outlook something IS going to be by or hit..south florida..so we can at least..look for some good rains..what i see different in todays run..is that whatever it becomes..goes farther UP florida,almost to me..so im watching This one closely..we do not need a tropical something traveling Up florida..although there still are area's in florida that can use the new rainfall it may bring.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36837
In all fairness, from the 20th to the 30th would be the timeframe should something develop in the Western Caribbean and goes in tandem with the upward motion of the MJO.
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Quoting Grothar:


..say gro..thats that huge blob that came off africa yesterday, sure is a big blog huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36837
Quoting LargoFl:
some dont want to hear it GT..
Well it is just 6 days out and it may be monsoonal in nature which usually takes time to develop.
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Quoting kwgirl:
Largo, I love the way you post the most important weather, Florida's!!LOL I think a lot of people who come on here know the model runs that far out are pie in the sky. The problem with the postings is that old people like me can't read the fine print on the bottom. So I propose when someone posts a model run that they state the hours etc, so we don't have someone peeking in and getting worried. No one is going to get scared. They will just tune into their local weatherman and realize the posting for what it is.
TY i always try to print what hours the models run is for..me too..i cannot read the very fine print lol..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36837
Quoting LargoFl:
some dont want to hear it GT..
Then let the few "tune out".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Largo, I love the way you post the most important weather, Florida's!!LOL I think a lot of people who come on here know the model runs that far out are pie in the sky. The problem with the postings is that old people like me can't read the fine print on the bottom. So I propose when someone posts a model run that they state the hours etc, so we don't have someone peeking in and getting worried. No one is going to get scared. They will just tune into their local weatherman and realize the posting for what it is.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.