September 2012: Earth's warmest September on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:01 PM GMT on October 15, 2012

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September 2012 was tied with 2005 as the globe's warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Global temperature records begin in 1880. NASA rated September 2012 the 4th warmest September on record. September 2012 global land temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record. September 2012 was the 331st consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time Earth had a below-average September global temperature was in 1976, and the last below-average month of any kind was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in September 2012 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 5th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of September 2012 in his September 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2012, which tied 2005 as the warmest September on record. Parts of east central Russia observed record warmth, as did parts of Venezuela, French Guinea, and northern Brazil. Nearly all of South America was much warmer than average, as were western Australia and central to eastern Europe. Far eastern Russia, a few regions in southern Africa, and parts of China were cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

El Niño watch continues
Neutral El Niño conditions exist in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were 0.1°C above average as of October 15. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has issued an El Niño watch, and gives a 55% chance that an El Niño event will be in place during the October - November - December period. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C above average or warmer to be considered an El Niño. El Niño conditions tend to bring cooler and wetter winter weather to the Southern U.S.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in September 2012 was the lowest measured, since satellite records began in 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Arctic sea ice falls to lowest extent on record in September
Arctic sea ice extent during September reached its lowest extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). As of October 14, Arctic sea extent had set a new record low for the date every day since July 27. I have much more to say about this year's extraordinary loss of Arctic sea ice in my September 20, 2012 post, Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:
360 hours


360 hrs???

Will we live this long?

:):))
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Quoting Grothar:


They told us it would just be a rain event.



We even saw hours of wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph way up here in Tampa Bay and over 3 inches of rain, peak gusts reached around 60 mph at times, it was even a fairly impressive event around here. What was even weirder was the sharp cold that soon followed, after Wilma passed Florida, later that day temps fell well into the lower 50's.

Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7615
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Righttttttt I was without power for 11 days. At least it was cooler than the 10 days without power from Charley...


It was stronger than a Cat 2. Nobody believes us.
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Rafael has 70mph and a 985mb pressure.
...RAFAEL TURNS NORTHWARD... ...NOAA AND U.S. AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO THE STORM...
5:00 PM AST Mon Oct 15
Location: 24.1N 65.8W
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 24.1N 65.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 26.1N 65.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 29.4N 64.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 33.7N 61.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 39.0N 57.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 47.0N 41.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/1800Z 48.0N 27.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/1800Z 48.0N 25.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It's super warm here. It was cold Saturday but we've warmed right up into the low 70s. Windy too... heavy rain tonight.

ditto
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Did you get any rain?


Less than an inch. We did get some good wind, though. The destruction in Broward and Palm Beach Counties was tremendous. The strange part, was the eye looked so big, but there was some of the most violent winds in that core. When the second half hit, it was violent. I still maintain to this day, that was not a Cat 2, but a 3.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And 12z Euro joins GFS.It starts at 120 hours and at 240 hours it looks like this.



Good afternoon,

I noticed this morning that the EURO now supports the GFS on this feature which we spoke about over the weekend.

Here is something else of passing interest. The 850 vort from ex Patty is now near the Yucatan channel but in the NW Caribbean as the CMC was predicting from many days ago and there is not only a surface reflection of that in ASCAT but the buoy near the channel and in the same area as the ASCAT pass has a West wind and falling pressure.

Not sure anything will come of this but interesting nonetheless. See images below.





observation.

Wind Direction (WDIR): W ( 270 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 7.8 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 11.7 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 2.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.5 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 82 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.80 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.3 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.6 °F
Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 9.7 kts
Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 9.7 kts





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Paul is up to 105 knots (120 mph).
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Paul gets recon tomorrow.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS...............(ADDED).
1. HURRICANE PAUL
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
A. 16/2100Z
B. AFXXX 0116E PAUL
C. 16/1500Z
D. 23.3N 112.7W
E. 16/2030Z TO 17/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. RESOURCES PERMITTING
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Quoting Grothar:


They told us it would just be a rain event.


Righttttttt I was without power for 11 days. At least it was cooler than the 10 days without power from Charley...
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Quoting Grothar:


They told us it would just be a rain event.


Did you get any rain?
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Quoting ackee:
SEEM LIKE both the EURO and GFS are out of blocks picking up on possible SW/WESTERN CARRBEAN storm mjo WILL be in play, so this could be the most intresting storm we have seen thus far in the carrbean lots of time and things will change. ALSO I notice the 12cmc DOES DEVLOP a wave in the central carrbean as well.
my guess is, this time next week most if not all models will be coming together.I just hope its not the big one, not with the economy the way it is right now here in florida, then again if the big one comes, doesnt matter what the economy is huh..life changes.
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168. ackee
SEEM LIKE both the EURO and GFS are out of blocks picking up on possible SW/WESTERN CARRBEAN storm mjo WILL be in play, so this could be the most intresting storm we have seen thus far in the carrbean lots of time and things will change. ALSO I notice the 12cmc DOES DEVLOP a wave in the central carrbean as well.
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Quoting Grothar:


They told us it would just be a rain event.
yeah and what a monster she turned out to be, i remember praying THAT would not decide to come in more northward..whew what a storm she was huh
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HPC has a 7 day map, I guess thats for entertainment purposes too..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15699
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


He's quite healthy right now.
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GFS rainfall model at 384 hours,long way off but.....
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Good afternoon everyone, I see Paul is rapidly strengthening and should be a major soon. I am surprised to see Rafael still a tropical storm. The GFS continues to develop Sandy and, at several times, Tony.
Here is my blog from this morning for those who missed it on Rafael and Paul.


And 12z Euro joins GFS.It starts at 120 hours and at 240 hours it looks like this.

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Quoting FtMyersgal:


I thought she would never leave. Compared to Charley who was strong but moved fast, Wilma just didn't want to leave


They told us it would just be a rain event.
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Quoting LargoFl:
just some light clouds here, no rain at all today by me...


South Fort Myers - big time raining outside.
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
419 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2012

NCC127-152045-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0363.000000T0000Z-121015T2045Z/
NASH NC-
419 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN NASH COUNTY...

AT 413 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SPRING
HOPE...OR 6 MILES WEST OF NASHVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
RED OAK BY 425 PM EDT
DORTCHES AND INTERSTATE 95 BY 430 PM EDT

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 95 BETWEEN EXITS 138 AND 150.

STRAIGHT LINE WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES...POWER LINES...AND DAMAGE
MOBILE HOMES AND OTHER BUILDINGS. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS FLYING DEBRIS
GENERATED BY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE DEADLY.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE CALL IN YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR
LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE
LIMBS DOWNED TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3615 7789 3614 7778 3616 7774 3611 7771
3606 7775 3596 7779 3590 7808 3598 7816
3609 7808 3617 7791
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 241DEG 33KT 3602 7800

$$

VINCENT
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Quoting Grothar:
It actually didn't move that fast.





I thought she would never leave. Compared to Charley who was strong but moved fast, Wilma just didn't want to leave
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just some light clouds here, no rain at all today by me...
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Good afternoon everyone, I see Paul is rapidly strengthening and should be a major soon. I am surprised to see Rafael still a tropical storm. The GFS continues to develop Sandy and, at several times, Tony.
Here is my blog from this morning for those who missed it on Rafael and Paul.
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suspect clouds in the sw carib
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
SHIPS was spot on with its high RI probabilities for Paul the other day... very good looking storm now.



CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 948.4mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.3 6.3

Should be upgraded to a major at 2pm PDT.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL
WILL CONTINUE TO DISRUPT THE NORMAL TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL CHANGE THE
FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS BY MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
RAFAEL...NORTH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO
CHANGE THE LOCAL WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS UNCOMMON...MOIST AND UNSTABLE WIND FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS BUT ORIENTED DIFFERENT AS NORMALLY OCCURS.
THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW...FOCUSED THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. IN FACT DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METROPOLITAN AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A NORMAL TRADE WINDS FLOW PATTERN WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS RAFAEL MOVES FARTHER AWAY WITH AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO WESTERN PUERTO RICO. A MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.

PASSING SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO PUERTO RICO AND USVI TAF
SITES FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST UNTIL AT LEAST 15/12Z INDUCING
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJSJ...TIST AND TISX. TSRA
ASSOCIATED WITH OUTER RAIN BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT TNCM AND TKPK TONIGHT...CAUSING MVFR AND TEMPO
IFR CONDS UNTIL AROUND 16/00Z. LLVL WINDS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 90 78 89 / 0 30 0 30
STT 79 88 79 88 / 20 30 30 30

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SHIPS was spot on with its high RI probabilities for Paul the other day... very good looking storm now.



CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 948.4mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.3 6.3
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We should see "Sandy" and "Tony" both develop within the next two weeks. Probably by next weekend at that.
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Quoting LargoFl:
MA hows the weather up by you? has the front reached to you yet?.chicago area had tornado's yesterday

It's super warm here. It was cold Saturday but we've warmed right up into the low 70s. Windy too... heavy rain tonight.
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Quoting presslord:


Oh! You were referring to tropical weather?!?!?!?! my mind was in an entirely different direction


ere...you mean direction! Yes, that's what you mean! You knew that!
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Quoting Grothar:



?


pay me no mind, sir....I'm not stable....
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Quoting Grothar:


Sandy looks wonderful!!
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Quoting Grothar:
geez Gro..imagine..THAT..coming right into Tampa Bay..OMG
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Quoting presslord:


Oh! You were referring to tropical weather?!?!?!?! my mind was in an entirely different direction



?
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It actually didn't move that fast.



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Quoting Grothar:


I know it just looks like a small blob now, but those systems can spring up fast. Look at Rafael. It would probably go straight North, but worth watching it.


Oh! You were referring to tropical weather?!?!?!?! my mind was in an entirely different direction
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SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
258 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -853-856-152000-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT TO 20 NM-CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DESOTO-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT TO 20 NM-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-
HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK -SARASOTA-SUMTER-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-
258 PM EDT MON OCT 15 2012

.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ARE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE OVER OUR AREA. AT 250 PM...STRONGEST ACTIVITY WAS OVER
SARASOTA COUNTY NEAR FRUITVILLE. OTHER AREAS OF STRONG ACTIVITY
WERE NEAR PUNTA GORDA...LIMESTONE...SOUTHERN HERNANDO COUNTY...AND
SOUTHERN CHARLOTTE COUNTY. RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ALONG
INTERSTATE 75 FROM LAKEWOOD RANCH TO FORT MYERS. HEAVY RAINFALL...
WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AND
MAINTAIN A SAFE FOLLOWING DISTANCE BEHIND OTHER VEHICLES...AS
VISIBILITY WILL BE LIMITED IN HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG ROADWAYS.

$$

LEWIS
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Crazy eye
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:

October reminder, Wilma
yep sure do alright
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some pretty strong storms in Central NC
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15699
Quoting presslord:


if I just had a nickel for every time....oh, forget it...


I know it just looks like a small blob now, but those systems can spring up fast. Look at Rafael. It would probably go straight North, but worth watching it.
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So it appears EURO shows a disturbance in the SW Carib. nine days out. So I would expect a trough to pick it up and ride it northeastward. I really hope it doesn't become a Wilma- like system. We don't need that.
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Quoting Grothar:
360 hours



whew..I thought I was looking in a kaleidoscope there for a second..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15699

October reminder, Wilma
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October reminder.
Wilma.
[IMG]http://i403.photobucket.com/albums/pp114/SGO S/Wilma-1.jpg[/IMG]
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360 hours

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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