September 2012: Earth's warmest September on record
September 2012 was tied with 2005 as the globe's warmest September on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Global temperature records begin in 1880. NASA rated September 2012 the 4th warmest September on record. September 2012 global land temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 2nd warmest on record. September 2012 was the 331st consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average. The last time Earth had a below-average September global temperature was in 1976, and the last below-average month of any kind was February 1985. Global satellite-measured temperatures in September 2012 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 5th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of September 2012 in his September 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for September 2012, which tied 2005 as the warmest September on record. Parts of east central Russia observed record warmth, as did parts of Venezuela, French Guinea, and northern Brazil. Nearly all of South America was much warmer than average, as were western Australia and central to eastern Europe. Far eastern Russia, a few regions in southern Africa, and parts of China were cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .
El Niño watch continues
Neutral El Niño conditions exist in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were 0.1°C above average as of October 15. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has issued an El Niño watch, and gives a 55% chance that an El Niño event will be in place during the October - November - December period. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C above average or warmer to be considered an El Niño. El Niño conditions tend to bring cooler and wetter winter weather to the Southern U.S.
Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent in September 2012 was the lowest measured, since satellite records began in 1979. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).
Arctic sea ice falls to lowest extent on record in September
Arctic sea ice extent during September reached its lowest extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). As of October 14, Arctic sea extent had set a new record low for the date every day since July 27. I have much more to say about this year's extraordinary loss of Arctic sea ice in my September 20, 2012 post, Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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What happened to your post? Hummmmm
Forecast of MJO associated anomalous OLR for the next 15 days from the ensemble mean GFS based on forecasts of RMM1 and RMM2. Blue (yellow/red) shades show negative (positive) OLR anomalies and enhanced (suppressed) convection. Forecasts do not include direct contributions from other climate modes such as ENSO, monsoons, etc. - only the MJO.
I agree on that but there actually appears to be moist conditions down there now
but there is an awful amount of shear in the Caribbean at the moment...(click on the shear boxes to see)
Link
I guess it just keeps us interested in the season for a little longer
I agree. Hasn't it been a recurring theme this season to have some type of anticipated development in the Western Carib? It just seems like the sheer there has been too strong to allow anything to get going.
(Comment modified) Nevermind. Not worth expending any more energy.
598 AussieStorm: Lets hope they get through. Glad I'm not onboard.
599 Neapolitan: ...Carnival's..."The Fun Ship".
"I come from the land down under, where beer does flow and the men chunder..."
Fat Tony comes to mind. Don't want to cross him. lol
Can't you hear, can't you hear the thunder?
You better run, you better take cover.
HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT PAUL WAS MOVING TOWARD BAJA
CALIFORNIA FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND THAT PROMPTED AN
SPECIAL ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE
INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 015 DEGREES AT 17
KNOTS. PAUL IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH OVER MEXICO
AND A CUTOFF LOW WEST OF PAUL. AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD...
PAUL SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AROUND THE LOW AND
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK SHOULD KEEP A
WEAKENING PAUL OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR A DAY OR TWO. MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND THE NHC
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS.
ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NO LONGER VISIBLE ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY...MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THAT IT IS HIDDEN UNDER THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
THIS IS AN INDICATION THAT A WEAKENING PROCESS HAS ALREADY BEGUN.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 90 KNOTS...AND ALTHOUGH
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A
HURRICANE AND REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA
DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND COOL WATERS WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING...AND PAUL IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND WEAKEN TO A
REMNANT LOW AFTERWARD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 23.8N 112.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 25.8N 111.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
24H 17/1200Z 27.0N 112.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 18/0000Z 28.5N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 18/1200Z 29.5N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 19/1200Z 31.3N 121.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Or that future storm will not take such a path. For all we know the the SW Carib may just provide us with one of Gro's famous blobs and give all a wet Holloween.
October
Thanks very much ! I actually did not call Neo a troll but pointed out that if you call someone a troll you were leaving yourself open to the same
I actually like the weather people over here . and have not been deliberately nasty to them . And I make alot of weather posts. Its when it come to Climate Change I disagree with some folk on here .
Yes I do belong to another site as well as this one I will not mention the site as I know that it is against the rules but its not against the rules to belong to other communities .or is it?
Good morning.
Three models calling for development. The GFS and Euro develop an area of low pressure in the SW Caribbean at 168 hrs ( 7 days ), Ngp at 144 hrs. This is getting very close to the timeline where the models are no longer in fantasy land
Euro ( 00Z run )
GFS ( 06 Z run )
Ngp ( 00Z run )
HURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 16 2012
DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...RAFAEL REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED ON
SATELLITE PICTURES WITH A SOLID CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA SHOW THE PRESSURE FELL TO 970 MB A
FEW HOURS AGO...WITH THE MOST RECENT MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF
90 KT AND SFMR DATA OF 70-75 KT. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO
80 KT AS A BLEND OF THESE DATA. WEAKENING SHOULD START FAIRLY SOON
WITH STRONG SHEAR APPROACHING THE CYCLONE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE INTENSITY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE NEW NHC FORECAST...BUT
IT IS HARD TO BELIEVE RAFAEL WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY WITH
PREDICTED SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 40 KT. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE
INITIAL WINDS.
RAFAEL IS MOVING A BIT FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...020/21.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE HURRICANE
PASSING TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA TONIGHT...THEN MOVING FASTER TO THE
NORTHEAST BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THERE ARE SOME MINOR SPEED
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THE CYCLONE MOVES...AND THE NHC FORECAST
LIES ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BETWEEN THE
INTERPOLATED PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS LIKELY BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS DUE TO
VERY COLD WATER AND INTERACTION WITH A COLD FRONT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 28.6N 64.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 31.7N 62.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 36.5N 59.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 41.5N 53.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 45.5N 44.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/1200Z 50.5N 30.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/1200Z 51.0N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1200Z 44.0N 29.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
I wouldn't do that to you guys. Wet candy is awful to eat. Even though I've been posting the Western Caribbean for the past week. :) I would say "I saw it first" but people might think I'm serious.
Thanks for your opinion. I may be new and not post very often but the last time I checked, I could plus any comment that I agree with. I don't think it's necessary to resort to name calling, so that's why I plussed it. Let the science speak for itself. Not that I need to explain myself.
Sorry if you feel like people that don't share your opinions are crashing your little party. And also, last time I checked, as Neo stated well, the ignore button is your friend. I encourage you to use it on those that you don't think should be allowed to post at WU. Doing so would make it more of the site that you wish it was.
Ah ok, thought was just me spacing out for a few days as was surprised to see the post about landfall already LOL
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