Rafael intensifying, but is pulling away from the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:55 PM GMT on October 14, 2012

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Tropical Storm Rafael is intensifying, but is headed northwards away from the Lesser Antilles Islands, after bringing gusty winds and heavy rains to the islands over the past two days. Three-day rainfall amounts of 2 - 3" were common over the Leeward Islands, but the winds mostly stayed below tropical storm-force. Here are some of the peak wind gusts from Rafael and rainfall totals from Oct 11 through 10 am EDT October 14:

Barbados, 47 mph, 0.81"
Antigua: 37 mph, 3.66"
Martinique: 30 mph, 3.10"
St. Lucia: 39 mph, 2.07"
St. Martin: 45 mph, 2.56"
Guadaloupe: 36 mph, 2.51"
Dominica: 25 mph, 2.68"
St. Kiits: 34 mph, 3.47"

Satellite loops show that Rafael has gotten much more organized late this morning, with an impressive spiral band with very heavy thunderstorms to the east of the center. Heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops are forming over the center, the hallmark of an intensifying tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters found a central pressure of 997 mb, and winds at their 5,000-foot flight level of 68 mph this morning. Rafael is experiencing a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Rafael.

Forecast for Rafael
Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range through Tuesday, which should allow Rafael to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane. Heavy rains will continue over the Leeward Islands today and diminish on Monday. A tropical storm watch has been posted for Bermuda, which is at risk of seeing tropical storm-force winds from Rafael on Tuesday. The 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 40% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds between Monday night and Wednesday morning, and a 6% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds. The models are pretty tightly clustered showing a track for Rafael to the east of Bermuda, which would put the island on the weaker (left front) side of the storm.

Tropical Storm Paul forms in the Eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm Paul formed yesterday in the East Pacific, and is headed northwards towards Mexico's Baja Peninsula. Paul's formation brings this year's tally of named storms in the East Pacific to sixteen, making 2012 just the third year since records began in 1949 that both the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic have had at least sixteen named storms. The other years were 2003 and 2008.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Anais in the Southwest Pacific taken at 2:05 am EDT Sunday October 14, 2012. At the time, Anais was a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, the strongest tropical cyclone ever observed in the Southwest Pacific so early in their hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

A rare early-season major tropical cyclone in the Southwest Indian Ocean
It's springtime in the Southern Hemisphere, where an unusual tropical cyclone has formed--Tropical Cyclone Anais, which hit Category 3 strength with 120 mph winds. According to Meteo France in La Reunion Island, Anais is the earliest major hurricane to form during the Southwest Indian Ocean's tropical cyclone season, which typically runs from November to May. Anais' formation in mid-October is akin to getting a major hurricane in the Atlantic during April, something which has never occurred (the earliest major hurricane on record in the Atlantic occurred on May 21, 1951.) Anais is the second earliest hurricane of any kind to form so early in the Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclone season, after Tropical Cyclone Blanche of October 10, 1969. Anais may reach Category 4 strength before cooler waters and increased wind shear weaken the storm as it approaches Madagascar.

Jeff Masters

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There's a reason the 18z GFS isn't exactly reliable, especially beyond 10 days... I'm not saying tonight's runs solution can't happen but it's not the most likely scenario... don't get too excited yet.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
243. Skyepony (Mod)
That supposed study starts on an extreme el niño year & ends on a moderately strong la niña year over the short period of 16 years. If you know anything about ENSO it's quite cherry picked to look like there had been no change. In an unchanging climate that should read the last 16 years have been cooler. It's scary it's the same, that a moderate la nina now is as warm as the great heat letting, record breaking El Nino of 97/98.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 174 Comments: 38176
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Like this?

Yeah like that.Seems like a classic set-up for trouble.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I just think it's entertaining that a hurricane is in the gulf terrorizing Florida.

As I've said before if the fronts keep coming down and stronger then the caribbean will be closed for buisness.The only time I see a storm like that headed out of the caribbean is a big warm up for the U.S at the end of October.

Like this?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting weatherbro:
The GFS is really having a hard time deciphering the pattern and next weekends full-latitude trough for the east. So I wouldn't worry about it's fantasy range.
I just think it's entertaining that a hurricane is in the gulf terrorizing Florida.

As I've said before if the fronts keep coming down and stronger then the caribbean will be closed for buisness.The only time I see a storm like that headed out of the caribbean is a big warm up for the U.S at the end of October.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
18z SHOWS HALLOWEEN TRICK OCT 29 2012


will it pull an ida and bring me a nor'easter???????????????????????????????????????? ?????????
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Quoting JLPR2:
Buoy very close to Rafael:


995 millibars with 30 knot sustained winds...typically would give a minimum barometric pressure of around 992 millibars, which is around what recon found.

Must be very, very close to the center.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
The GFS is really having a hard time deciphering the pattern and next weekends full-latitude trough for the east. So I wouldn't worry about it's fantasy range.
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236. JLPR2
Buoy very close to Rafael:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Neapolitan:
No spin necessary. It's just another illogical opinion piece written by a denialist writer for a denialist newspaper, containing an interview with a discredited scientist and trying to make the claim that a secret 'government report' (to which the writer doesn't bother linking because it doesn't exist) somehow disproves something every credible scientist on the planet knows to be true. And to top it off, it's accompanied by a silly graph that lacks error bars and trendlines, and begins--as such denialist graphs always do--during a warm El Nino year and ends during a cool La Nina year.

Yawn.

Of course, Anthony Watts and his merry band of sycophantic miscreants have blindly swallowed the bait, but the UK Met Office--the creators of the non-existent "secret government report"--already responded to and thoroughly debunked the opinion piece earlier today. (I know that some confuse "setting the record straight" with "spin", but that's their problem, not scientists')


I just can't help wondering just how many people besides you have that bumper sticker on their cars.

Pasted on the front bumper and on the back bumper, I am sure.

You know...

The AGW gang says its true, I believe them and that is all there is to it.

Judging from some of the thuggish comments, quite a few.


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Sracth that looks similar to Isaac's track.If GFS is correct then 2012 will go out with a bang and there is another storm in behind it.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
"Cues music".Micheal Myers will be paying someone a visit...


Michael Myers ended up being a tiny major hurricane that only affected H2O. *knee slap*
That could be Sandy, or it culd be *gasp* Terrible Tony.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 602
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Happy Halloween?



It starts to develop at 240 hours?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14326
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Happy Halloween?



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Happy Halloween?



...

O_O

And asides from that, I see Rafael is opening up his eye.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 602
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Happy Halloween?

"Cues music".Micheal Myers will be paying someone a visit...
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Quoting PensacolaDoug (#213):
Hmmmm...Let the bashing begin!

By David Rose UK Daily Mail

The world stopped getting warmer almost 16 years ago, according to new ( non-satellite BB) data released last week.

[snip]
See comment #223. Or, better yet, just read the UK Met Office's response to Rose's silly opinion piece. It contains this graph that helps to illustrate what a clueless buffoon Rose continues to be:

temp
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Happy Halloween?

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Quoting sunlinepr:
Have to admit that Rafael did everything he could to protect Puerto Rico, he even jump towards St. Martin when he saw the Puerto Rican Island of Vieques and Culebra in his pass..a well behave boy... not so for poor Guadalupe...
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ColdInFL:
Oh no.. not again! What spin will put on this one?

Link
No spin necessary. It's just another illogical opinion piece written by a denialist writer for a denialist newspaper, containing an interview with a discredited scientist and trying to make the claim that a secret 'government report' (to which the writer doesn't bother linking because it doesn't exist) somehow disproves something every credible scientist on the planet knows to be true. And to top it off, it's accompanied by a silly graph that lacks error bars and trendlines, and begins--as such denialist graphs always do--during a warm El Nino year and ends during a cool La Nina year.

Yawn.

Of course, Anthony Watts and his merry band of sycophantic miscreants have blindly swallowed the bait, but the UK Met Office--the creators of the non-existent "secret government report"--already responded to and thoroughly debunked the opinion piece earlier today. (I know that some confuse "setting the record straight" with "spin", but that's their problem, not scientists')
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Maybe Rafeal will be a 70mph storm next advisory.
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Based on the models (including the long-runs) could we get up to Valerie?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Recon found 71kt at flight level and is uncontaminated.

224130 2148N 06354W 8430 01502 //// 149 //// 109070 071 048 010 01


I want to see that at the low levels
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
348... doom alert:



darn it!
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Hmmmm...Let the bashing begin!



By David Rose UK Daily Mail

The world stopped getting warmer almost 16 years ago, according to new ( non-satellite BB) data released last week.

The figures, which have triggered debate among climate scientists, reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012, there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures.

This means that the %u2018plateau%u2019 or %u2018pause%u2019 in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996. Before that, temperatures had been stable or declining for about 40 years.

The new data, compiled from more than 3,000 measuring points on land and sea, was issued quietly on the internet, without any media fanfare, and, until today, it has not been reported.

This stands in sharp contrast to the release of the previous figures six months ago, which went only to the end of 2010 %u2013 a very warm year.

Ending the data then means it is possible to show a slight warming trend since 1997, but 2011 and the first eight months of 2012 were much cooler, and thus this trend is erased.

Some climate scientists, such as Professor Phil Jones, director of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, last week dismissed the significance of the plateau, saying that 15 or 16 years is too short a period from which to draw conclusions.

Others disagreed. Professor Judith Curry, who is the head of the climate science department at America%u2019s prestigious Georgia Tech university, told The Mail on Sunday that it was clear that the computer models used to predict future warming were %u2018deeply flawed%u2019.

Even Prof Jones admitted that he and his colleagues did not understand the impact of %u2018natural variability%u2019 - factors such as long-term ocean temperature cycles and changes in the output of the sun. However, he said he was still convinced that the current decade would end up significantly warmer than the previous two.

The regular data collected on global temperature is called Hadcrut 4, as it is jointly issued by the Met Office%u2019s Hadley Centre and Prof Jones%u2019s Climatic Research Unit.

Since 1880, when worldwide industrialisation began to gather pace and reliable statistics were first collected on a global scale, the world has warmed by 0.75 degrees Celsius.

Some scientists have claimed that this rate of warming is set to increase hugely without drastic cuts to carbon-dioxide emissions, predicting a catastrophic increase of up to a further five degrees Celsius by the end of the century.

The new figures were released as the Government made clear that it would %u2018bend%u2019 its own carbon-dioxide rules and build new power stations to try to combat the threat of blackouts.

At last week%u2019s Conservative Party Conference, the new Energy Minister, John Hayes, promised that %u2018the high-flown theories of bourgeois left-wing academics will not override the interests of ordinary people who need fuel for heat, light and transport %u2013 energy policies, you might say, for the many, not the few%u2019 - a pledge that has triggered fury from green activists, who fear reductions in the huge subsidies given to wind-turbine firms.

Flawed science costs us dearly

Here are three not-so trivial questions you probably won%u2019t find in your next pub quiz. First, how much warmer has the world become since a) 1880 and b) the beginning of 1997? And what has this got to do with your ever-increasing energy bill?

You may find the answers to the first two surprising. Since 1880, when reliable temperature records began to be kept across most of the globe, the world has warmed by about 0.75 degrees Celsius.

From the start of 1997 until August 2012, however, figures released last week show the answer is zero: the trend, derived from the aggregate data collected from more than 3,000 worldwide measuring points, has been flat.

Not that there has been any coverage in the media, which usually reports climate issues assiduously, since the figures were quietly release online with no accompanying press release - unlike six months ago when they showed a slight warming trend.

The answer to the third question is perhaps the most familiar. Your bills are going up, at least in part, because of the array of %u2018green%u2019 subsidies being provided to the renewable energy industry, chiefly wind.

They will cost the average household about 100 pounds this year. This is set to rise steadily higher - yet it is being imposed for only one reason: the widespread conviction, which is shared by politicians of all stripes and drilled into children at primary schools, that, without drastic action to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions, global warming is certain soon to accelerate, with truly catastrophic consequences by the end of the century %u2013 when temperatures could be up to five degrees higher.

Hence the significance of those first two answers. Global industrialisation over the past 130 years has made relatively little difference.

And with the country committed by Act of Parliament to reducing CO2 by 80 per cent by 2050, a project that will cost hundreds of billions, the news that the world has got no warmer for the past 16 years comes as something of a shock.

It poses a fundamental challenge to the assumptions underlying every aspect of energy and climate change policy.

This %u2018plateau%u2019 in rising temperatures does not mean that global warming won%u2019t at some point resume.

But according to increasing numbers of serious climate scientists, it does suggest that the computer models that have for years been predicting imminent doom, such as those used by the Met Office and the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, are flawed, and that the climate is far more complex than the models assert.

%u2018The new data confirms the existence of a pause in global warming,%u2019 Professor Judith Curry, chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Science at America%u2019s Georgia Tech university, told me yesterday.

%u2018Climate models are very complex, but they are imperfect and incomplete. Natural variability [the impact of factors such as long-term temperature cycles in the oceans and the output of the sun] has been shown over the past two decades to have a magnitude that dominates the greenhouse warming effect.

%u2018It is becoming increasingly apparent that our attribution of warming since 1980 and future projections of climate change needs to consider natural internal variability as a factor of fundamental importance.%u2019

Professor Phil Jones, director of the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, who found himself at the centre of the %u2018Climategate%u2019 scandal over leaked emails three years ago, would not normally be expected to agree with her. Yet on two important points, he did.

The data does suggest a plateau, he admitted, and without a major El Nino event - the sudden, dramatic warming of the southern Pacific which takes place unpredictably and always has a huge effect on global weather - %u2018it could go on for a while%u2019.

Like Prof Curry, Prof Jones also admitted that the climate models were imperfect: %u2018We don%u2019t fully understand how to input things like changes in the oceans, and because we don%u2019t fully understand it you could say that natural variability is now working to suppress the warming. We don%u2019t know what natural variability is doing.%u2019

Yet he insisted that 15 or 16 years is not a significant period: pauses of such length had always been expected, he said.

Yet in 2009, when the plateau was already becoming apparent and being discussed by scientists, he told a colleague in one of the Climategate emails: %u2018Bottom line: the %u201Cno upward trend%u201D has to continue for a total of 15 years before we get worried.%u2019

But although that point has now been passed, he said that he hadn%u2019t changed his mind about the models%u2019 gloomy predictions: %u2018I still think that the current decade which began in 2010 will be warmer by about 0.17 degrees than the previous one, which was warmer than the Nineties.%u2019

Only if that did not happen would he seriously begin to wonder whether something more profound might be happening. In other words, though five years ago he seemed to be saying that 15 years without warming would make him %u2018worried%u2019, that period has now become 20 years.

Meanwhile, his Met Office colleagues were sticking to their guns. A spokesman said: %u2018Choosing a starting or end point on short-term scales can be very misleading. Climate change can only be detected from multi-decadal timescales due to the inherent variability in the climate system.%u2019

He said that for the plateau to last any more than 15 years was %u2018unlikely%u2019. Asked about a prediction that the Met Office made in 2009 - that three of the ensuing five years would set a new world temperature record - he made no comment. With no sign of a strong El Nino next year, the prospects of this happening are remote.

Why all this matters should be obvious. Every quarter, statistics on the economy%u2019s output and models of future performance have a huge impact on our lives. They trigger a range of policy responses from the Bank of England and the Treasury, and myriad decisions by private businesses.

Yet it has steadily become apparent since the 2008 crash that both the statistics and the modelling are extremely unreliable. To plan the future around them makes about as much sense as choosing a wedding date three months%u2019 hence on the basis of a long-term weather forecast.

Few people would be so foolish. But decisions of far deeper and more costly significance than those derived from output figures have been and are still being made on the basis of climate predictions, not of the next three months but of the coming century - and this despite the fact that Phil Jones and his colleagues now admit they do not understand the role of %u2018natural variability%u2019.

The most depressing feature of this debate is that anyone who questions the alarmist, doomsday scenario will automatically be labelled a climate change %u2018denier%u2019, and accused of jeopardising the future of humanity.

So let%u2019s be clear. Yes: global warming is real, and some of it at least has been caused by the CO2 emitted by fossil fuels. But the evidence is beginning to suggest that it may be happening much slower than the catastrophists have claimed %u2013 a conclusion with enormous policy implications.
Stop you denier!.Stop trying to support your right winged claims! lololol.

Here they come in 5,4,3,2,1..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 22:57Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 17L in 2012
Storm Name: Rafael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 02
A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 22:24:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°11'N 64°25'W (21.1833N 64.4167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 220 miles (353 km) to the NNE (29°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,362m (4,469ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 31kts (~ 35.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 65 nautical miles (75 statute miles) to the SW (230°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 3° at 31kts (From the N at ~ 35.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 87 nautical miles (100 statute miles) to the WSW (242°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.26 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: No Observation
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 22:41:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 22:41:3
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Recon data supports an initial intensity of 55 knots, 992 millibars at 11pm EDT. The mission just began, however, and the plane may find stronger winds.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32275
Recon found 71kt at flight level and is uncontaminated.

224130 2148N 06354W 8430 01502 //// 149 //// 109070 071 048 010 01
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14326
Hmmmm...Let the bashing begin!



By David Rose UK Daily Mail

The world stopped getting warmer almost 16 years ago, according to new ( non-satellite BB) data released last week.

The figures, which have triggered debate among climate scientists, reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012, there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures.

This means that the %u2018plateau%u2019 or %u2018pause%u2019 in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996. Before that, temperatures had been stable or declining for about 40 years.

The new data, compiled from more than 3,000 measuring points on land and sea, was issued quietly on the internet, without any media fanfare, and, until today, it has not been reported.

This stands in sharp contrast to the release of the previous figures six months ago, which went only to the end of 2010 %u2013 a very warm year.

Ending the data then means it is possible to show a slight warming trend since 1997, but 2011 and the first eight months of 2012 were much cooler, and thus this trend is erased.

Some climate scientists, such as Professor Phil Jones, director of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, last week dismissed the significance of the plateau, saying that 15 or 16 years is too short a period from which to draw conclusions.

Others disagreed. Professor Judith Curry, who is the head of the climate science department at America%u2019s prestigious Georgia Tech university, told The Mail on Sunday that it was clear that the computer models used to predict future warming were %u2018deeply flawed%u2019.

Even Prof Jones admitted that he and his colleagues did not understand the impact of %u2018natural variability%u2019 - factors such as long-term ocean temperature cycles and changes in the output of the sun. However, he said he was still convinced that the current decade would end up significantly warmer than the previous two.

The regular data collected on global temperature is called Hadcrut 4, as it is jointly issued by the Met Office%u2019s Hadley Centre and Prof Jones%u2019s Climatic Research Unit.

Since 1880, when worldwide industrialisation began to gather pace and reliable statistics were first collected on a global scale, the world has warmed by 0.75 degrees Celsius.

Some scientists have claimed that this rate of warming is set to increase hugely without drastic cuts to carbon-dioxide emissions, predicting a catastrophic increase of up to a further five degrees Celsius by the end of the century.

The new figures were released as the Government made clear that it would %u2018bend%u2019 its own carbon-dioxide rules and build new power stations to try to combat the threat of blackouts.

At last week%u2019s Conservative Party Conference, the new Energy Minister, John Hayes, promised that %u2018the high-flown theories of bourgeois left-wing academics will not override the interests of ordinary people who need fuel for heat, light and transport %u2013 energy policies, you might say, for the many, not the few%u2019 - a pledge that has triggered fury from green activists, who fear reductions in the huge subsidies given to wind-turbine firms.

Flawed science costs us dearly

Here are three not-so trivial questions you probably won%u2019t find in your next pub quiz. First, how much warmer has the world become since a) 1880 and b) the beginning of 1997? And what has this got to do with your ever-increasing energy bill?

You may find the answers to the first two surprising. Since 1880, when reliable temperature records began to be kept across most of the globe, the world has warmed by about 0.75 degrees Celsius.

From the start of 1997 until August 2012, however, figures released last week show the answer is zero: the trend, derived from the aggregate data collected from more than 3,000 worldwide measuring points, has been flat.

Not that there has been any coverage in the media, which usually reports climate issues assiduously, since the figures were quietly release online with no accompanying press release - unlike six months ago when they showed a slight warming trend.

The answer to the third question is perhaps the most familiar. Your bills are going up, at least in part, because of the array of %u2018green%u2019 subsidies being provided to the renewable energy industry, chiefly wind.

They will cost the average household about 100 pounds this year. This is set to rise steadily higher - yet it is being imposed for only one reason: the widespread conviction, which is shared by politicians of all stripes and drilled into children at primary schools, that, without drastic action to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions, global warming is certain soon to accelerate, with truly catastrophic consequences by the end of the century %u2013 when temperatures could be up to five degrees higher.

Hence the significance of those first two answers. Global industrialisation over the past 130 years has made relatively little difference.

And with the country committed by Act of Parliament to reducing CO2 by 80 per cent by 2050, a project that will cost hundreds of billions, the news that the world has got no warmer for the past 16 years comes as something of a shock.

It poses a fundamental challenge to the assumptions underlying every aspect of energy and climate change policy.

This %u2018plateau%u2019 in rising temperatures does not mean that global warming won%u2019t at some point resume.

But according to increasing numbers of serious climate scientists, it does suggest that the computer models that have for years been predicting imminent doom, such as those used by the Met Office and the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, are flawed, and that the climate is far more complex than the models assert.

%u2018The new data confirms the existence of a pause in global warming,%u2019 Professor Judith Curry, chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Science at America%u2019s Georgia Tech university, told me yesterday.

%u2018Climate models are very complex, but they are imperfect and incomplete. Natural variability [the impact of factors such as long-term temperature cycles in the oceans and the output of the sun] has been shown over the past two decades to have a magnitude that dominates the greenhouse warming effect.

%u2018It is becoming increasingly apparent that our attribution of warming since 1980 and future projections of climate change needs to consider natural internal variability as a factor of fundamental importance.%u2019

Professor Phil Jones, director of the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, who found himself at the centre of the %u2018Climategate%u2019 scandal over leaked emails three years ago, would not normally be expected to agree with her. Yet on two important points, he did.

The data does suggest a plateau, he admitted, and without a major El Nino event - the sudden, dramatic warming of the southern Pacific which takes place unpredictably and always has a huge effect on global weather - %u2018it could go on for a while%u2019.

Like Prof Curry, Prof Jones also admitted that the climate models were imperfect: %u2018We don%u2019t fully understand how to input things like changes in the oceans, and because we don%u2019t fully understand it you could say that natural variability is now working to suppress the warming. We don%u2019t know what natural variability is doing.%u2019

Yet he insisted that 15 or 16 years is not a significant period: pauses of such length had always been expected, he said.

Yet in 2009, when the plateau was already becoming apparent and being discussed by scientists, he told a colleague in one of the Climategate emails: %u2018Bottom line: the %u201Cno upward trend%u201D has to continue for a total of 15 years before we get worried.%u2019

But although that point has now been passed, he said that he hadn%u2019t changed his mind about the models%u2019 gloomy predictions: %u2018I still think that the current decade which began in 2010 will be warmer by about 0.17 degrees than the previous one, which was warmer than the Nineties.%u2019

Only if that did not happen would he seriously begin to wonder whether something more profound might be happening. In other words, though five years ago he seemed to be saying that 15 years without warming would make him %u2018worried%u2019, that period has now become 20 years.

Meanwhile, his Met Office colleagues were sticking to their guns. A spokesman said: %u2018Choosing a starting or end point on short-term scales can be very misleading. Climate change can only be detected from multi-decadal timescales due to the inherent variability in the climate system.%u2019

He said that for the plateau to last any more than 15 years was %u2018unlikely%u2019. Asked about a prediction that the Met Office made in 2009 - that three of the ensuing five years would set a new world temperature record - he made no comment. With no sign of a strong El Nino next year, the prospects of this happening are remote.

Why all this matters should be obvious. Every quarter, statistics on the economy%u2019s output and models of future performance have a huge impact on our lives. They trigger a range of policy responses from the Bank of England and the Treasury, and myriad decisions by private businesses.

Yet it has steadily become apparent since the 2008 crash that both the statistics and the modelling are extremely unreliable. To plan the future around them makes about as much sense as choosing a wedding date three months%u2019 hence on the basis of a long-term weather forecast.

Few people would be so foolish. But decisions of far deeper and more costly significance than those derived from output figures have been and are still being made on the basis of climate predictions, not of the next three months but of the coming century - and this despite the fact that Phil Jones and his colleagues now admit they do not understand the role of %u2018natural variability%u2019.

The most depressing feature of this debate is that anyone who questions the alarmist, doomsday scenario will automatically be labelled a climate change %u2018denier%u2019, and accused of jeopardising the future of humanity.

So let%u2019s be clear. Yes: global warming is real, and some of it at least has been caused by the CO2 emitted by fossil fuels. But the evidence is beginning to suggest that it may be happening much slower than the catastrophists have claimed %u2013 a conclusion with enormous policy implications.
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Firts the GFS says S.W caribbean now it shows just north of the caribbean and plowing into poor Florida once again.Almost reminds me of Kate's track.
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18Z GFS is scarier than the WALKING DEAD!
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TILL 31 HALLOWEEN

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The GFS is more entertaining than my teams football game today.
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208. SuzK
Quoting wxmod:
North and south hemisphere storms at the same time? Interesting.



It's been happening for weeks now!
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18z SHOWS HALLOWEEN TRICK OCT 29 2012

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372:

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360:

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
348... doom alert:

Don't make JFV's christmas present come early.
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348... doom alert:

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18z GFS 324 hours:

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Lowest pressure found by Recon was 992 mbs.

222500 2113N 06423W 8425 01433 9918 +200 +184 162014 017 007 002 03
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14326
200. wxmod
If the anomaly keeps getting bigger, next year may have zero ice.

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Quoting Slamguitar:
Got small hail smacking my window now. Wish it was snow...

So far I have got 30-40mph winds, heavy rain, and a few pea sized hail stones. Another line is near Lake MI Grand Rapids area that could provide more strong T-storms.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7948
Got small hail smacking my window now. Wish it was snow...
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Oh no.. not again! What spin will put on this one?

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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