Rafael intensifying, but is pulling away from the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:55 PM GMT on October 14, 2012

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Tropical Storm Rafael is intensifying, but is headed northwards away from the Lesser Antilles Islands, after bringing gusty winds and heavy rains to the islands over the past two days. Three-day rainfall amounts of 2 - 3" were common over the Leeward Islands, but the winds mostly stayed below tropical storm-force. Here are some of the peak wind gusts from Rafael and rainfall totals from Oct 11 through 10 am EDT October 14:

Barbados, 47 mph, 0.81"
Antigua: 37 mph, 3.66"
Martinique: 30 mph, 3.10"
St. Lucia: 39 mph, 2.07"
St. Martin: 45 mph, 2.56"
Guadaloupe: 36 mph, 2.51"
Dominica: 25 mph, 2.68"
St. Kiits: 34 mph, 3.47"

Satellite loops show that Rafael has gotten much more organized late this morning, with an impressive spiral band with very heavy thunderstorms to the east of the center. Heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops are forming over the center, the hallmark of an intensifying tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters found a central pressure of 997 mb, and winds at their 5,000-foot flight level of 68 mph this morning. Rafael is experiencing a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Rafael.

Forecast for Rafael
Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range through Tuesday, which should allow Rafael to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane. Heavy rains will continue over the Leeward Islands today and diminish on Monday. A tropical storm watch has been posted for Bermuda, which is at risk of seeing tropical storm-force winds from Rafael on Tuesday. The 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 40% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds between Monday night and Wednesday morning, and a 6% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds. The models are pretty tightly clustered showing a track for Rafael to the east of Bermuda, which would put the island on the weaker (left front) side of the storm.

Tropical Storm Paul forms in the Eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm Paul formed yesterday in the East Pacific, and is headed northwards towards Mexico's Baja Peninsula. Paul's formation brings this year's tally of named storms in the East Pacific to sixteen, making 2012 just the third year since records began in 1949 that both the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic have had at least sixteen named storms. The other years were 2003 and 2008.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Anais in the Southwest Pacific taken at 2:05 am EDT Sunday October 14, 2012. At the time, Anais was a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, the strongest tropical cyclone ever observed in the Southwest Pacific so early in their hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

A rare early-season major tropical cyclone in the Southwest Indian Ocean
It's springtime in the Southern Hemisphere, where an unusual tropical cyclone has formed--Tropical Cyclone Anais, which hit Category 3 strength with 120 mph winds. According to Meteo France in La Reunion Island, Anais is the earliest major hurricane to form during the Southwest Indian Ocean's tropical cyclone season, which typically runs from November to May. Anais' formation in mid-October is akin to getting a major hurricane in the Atlantic during April, something which has never occurred (the earliest major hurricane on record in the Atlantic occurred on May 21, 1951.) Anais is the second earliest hurricane of any kind to form so early in the Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclone season, after Tropical Cyclone Blanche of October 10, 1969. Anais may reach Category 4 strength before cooler waters and increased wind shear weaken the storm as it approaches Madagascar.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting wxchaser97:

00z GFS at 384hrs:


06z GFS at 384hrs:


The 06z is a Lenny type track.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14755
Quoting KoritheMan:
Commendable:

SPECIAL THANKS TO THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS WHO PULLED
DOUBLE DUTY YESTERDAY BY HELPING LOCATE A LIGHT AIRCRAFT AND ITS
PASSENGERS THAT WENT DOWN NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. WELL DONE.


that was very nice...
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Quoting bigwes6844:
link?

00z GFS at 384hrs:


06z GFS at 384hrs:
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Everyone have a wonderful Monday.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Good morning, I see Paul is a hurricane and Rafael will probably be one at 11am. I also see the GFS continues to develop Sandy and even Tony.
link?
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 11:09Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 17L in 2012
Storm Name: Rafael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 03
A. Time of Center Fix: 15th day of the month at 10:39:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°19'N 65°25'W (22.3167N 65.4167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 273 miles (440 km) to the N (9°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,285m (4,216ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 44kts (~ 50.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the SW (230°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 323° at 44kts (From the NW at ~ 50.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the SW (230°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 985mb (29.09 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 81kts (~ 93.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 10:55:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 81kts (~ 93.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 10:55:00Z

Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the SW (231°) from the flight level center
Maximum SFMR Estimated Surface Wind Outbound: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 10:56:30Z
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Good morning, I see Paul is a hurricane and Rafael will probably be one at 11am. I also see the GFS continues to develop Sandy and even Tony.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
This is a nice route round PR :

Link


On another note someone should post the transcript Control Room - Felix Baumgartner

Project funding must have ended when coming to staffing up there.

- Winds are from the north,
- ehh no from the east

- Where are u Felix we cant find you

- Winds are blowing from the ridge,
ehh err towards the ridge.

The enemy within
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an area of vigorous spin is located near 10n 37w. could this be 99L/SANDY ??
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Morning/evening everyone.

I see we have TS Rafael this morning and they expect him to make hurricane status later today.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41583
435. VR46L
Quoting Neapolitan:
Somehow I seriously doubt whether any of the people in the islands are huddled in the growing darkness while the winds and rain are picking up, frantically searching through this forum's comments for guidance on what to do next. But any who are can probably find what they need just fine anyway...


I really can't believe you .. there are many Islanders ,who even if they cant see the forum would like to know that their fellow weather posters care about what they are going through, when they will read back the forums . Its the human touch,a caring thought, that brings alot of people on to a weather forum, a community.Or they could be using their phones to see what is going on even if they are without power and they may get a comfort from what posters are saying or get upset, with the lack of care some exhibit to their plight.
Oh I dont even know why I am responding to such a sarcastic comment and I aint in the mood to debate it.


Anyways ...Rafael in rainbow

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Quoting Civicane49:
I'm out. Later all.

see ya
Member Since: August 20, 2012 Posts: 13 Comments: 1254
I'm out. Later all.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting Civicane49:


Yep. Paul is trying to develop an eyewall.


He's already developed a partial one:

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Quoting Civicane49:


Yep. Paul is trying to develop an eyewall.

i expect and eye should develop before too long
Member Since: August 20, 2012 Posts: 13 Comments: 1254
Quoting flcanes:

looking good


Yep. Paul is trying to develop an eyewall on satellite imagery.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Commendable:

SPECIAL THANKS TO THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS WHO PULLED
DOUBLE DUTY YESTERDAY BY HELPING LOCATE A LIGHT AIRCRAFT AND ITS
PASSENGERS THAT WENT DOWN NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. WELL DONE.
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Quoting Civicane49:
Hurricane Paul:


looking good
Member Since: August 20, 2012 Posts: 13 Comments: 1254
Hurricane Paul:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Tropical Storm Rafael:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
000
WTNT42 KNHC 150854
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 AM AST MON OCT 15 2012

THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN OF RAFAEL HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND
A LARGE CDO FEATURE HAS NOW DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB...T3.5/55 KT
FROM SAB...AND ADT ESTIMATES ARE T3.4/53 KT...BUT WITH RAW DATA
T-NUMBERS OF T4.3/72 KT. ALTHOUGH IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
RAFAEL COULD ALREADY BE A HURRICANE BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THIS
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 60 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE
INVESTIGATING RAFAEL AROUND 1200 UTC...AND DATA FROM THAT MISSION
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE ACTUAL INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/09 KT. THERE REMAINS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING...
AND THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE 72
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD BY THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE WEAKENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF
THE U.S. COAST ON TUESDAY...RAFAEL SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND
ACCELERATE. AFTER 72 HOURS...THERE IS GREATER SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE AS SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE SLOWING DOWN AS IT INTERACTS WITH A LARGER LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. DESPITE THESE SPEED DIFFERENCES...THE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THEN EXTRATROPICAL RAFAEL TURNING EASTWARD OVER
THE COLD WATERS OF THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC AND POSSIBLY BECOME
ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCA CONSENSUS MODEL.

DESPITE THE 21 KT OF SHEAR ASSESSED BY THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL...
THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND AND
IMPROVE...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST WHERE THE OUTFLOW IS BEING
ENHANCED BY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ALONG 40W
LONGITUDE. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...SO AT LEAST SOME GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. BY DAYS 2-3...
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 30 KT AS
THE U.S. DEEP-LAYER TROUGH APPROACHES RAFAEL...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE
GRADUAL WEAKENING. BY DAY 4...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING
RAFAEL TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS
WITH A COLD FRONT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND FOLLOWS THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL.

SPECIAL THANKS TO THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS WHO PULLED
DOUBLE DUTY YESTERDAY BY HELPING LOCATE A LIGHT AIRCRAFT AND ITS
PASSENGERS THAT WENT DOWN NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. WELL DONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 22.5N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 23.9N 65.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 26.3N 65.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 29.6N 63.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 33.8N 60.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 42.6N 50.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 48.2N 35.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/0600Z 49.3N 24.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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000
WTPZ41 KNHC 150854
TCDEP1

HURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012

PAUL IS ON A STRENGTHENING TREND. THE CYCLONE IS PRODUCING CLOUD
TOPS AS COLD AS -85C NEAR THE CENTER WITH BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE
THAT INNER CORE OF PAUL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE
EYEWALL WIDENING ON THE WEST SIDE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE
T4.0/65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND ON THIS BASIS THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 65 KT...MAKING PAUL A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS AS THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WHILE THE
HURRICANE IS OVER 26C TO 28C WATERS. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND THAT
COMBINED WITH STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATER SHOULD CAUSE PAUL TO LOSE
STRENGTH. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT IN THE FLOW BETWEEN
A RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW A FEW HUNDRED N
MI WEST OF THE BAJA PENNISULA. THIS MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
CAUSING PAUL TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE WEAKENING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. DISSIPATION IS NOW SHOWN BY DAY 4...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF
THE MODELS. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST THIS CYCLE...AND
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ABOUT 30 N MI IN THAT DIRECTION.

THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
TRACK AS TYPICAL NHC FORECAST ERRORS ARE ABOUT 80 N MI AT 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 16.2N 114.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 18.0N 114.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 20.2N 113.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 22.8N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 24.8N 113.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 27.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
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Quoting Civicane49:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012

...PAUL BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 114.9W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

not a surprise
Member Since: August 20, 2012 Posts: 13 Comments: 1254
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012

...PAUL BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 114.9W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 AM AST MON OCT 15 2012

...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 65.3W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Hurricane Paul, everyone.
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419. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MARIA (T1222)
15:00 PM JST October 15 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Ogasawara Shoto Waters

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Maria (990 hPa) located at 21.0N 141.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 26.5N 139.4E - 55 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) - west of Chichi jima
48 HRS: 30.2N 140.9E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) - south southeast of Hachijo jima
72 HRS: 34.9N 152.7E - Extratropical Cyclone In Sea East Of Japan
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418. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE ANAIS (01-20122013)
10:30 AM RET October 15 2012
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Anais (957 hPa) located at 12.9S 64.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
50 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 85 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 90 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 110 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 180 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 14.5S 61.0E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 16.1S 57.8E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 17.7S 55.5E - 25 knots (PERTURBATION TROPICALE)

Additional Information
======================

During the last 6 hours, Anais has maintained an eye pattern with again some raw T-numbers at 6.0 around 0200 - 0300 AM UTC. At 06:00 AM UTC, 3 hour mean T-numbers is at 5.4 in line with Advance Dvorak Technique. Consequently, the system is maintained in strength.

Microwave data of last night and this morning suggest the occurrence of a quick eyewall replacement cycle. Accordingly, the radius of maximum winds has double up compared to yesterday evening and the eye diameter seen on infrared imagery is now around 45 NM.

The tropical cyclone are still within favorable atmospheric environmental conditions today in relationship with persistent good upper level divergence (although it appears slightly weaker on water vapor imagery) and weak vertical wind shear. However oceanic heat contain is now very limited and should gradually weaken the system.

On Wednesday, upper level north-westerly wind shear is expected to increase sharply ahead of an upper tropospheric trough and system should weaken more rapidly. Winds should remain strong in the southern semi-circle, due to the gradient effect with the subtropical anticyclone.

Except UKMO numerical weather prediction model that keeps on forecasting a zonal westwards track, most of the other available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement about a southwestwards track within the next 48 hours. Available tracks guidance is close to previous one used in the 0:00 AM UTC forecast cycle, just a little bit to the right. The present forecast has been adjusted accordingly. It is worth to note that the 14/1200z ECMWF ensemble forecast depicts a high spread beyond J+3.
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Derived from NHC_ATCF data for TropicalStormRaphael @ 15Oct.6amGMT

ZSA-SanSalvador :: GDT-GrandTurk :: NGD-Anegada :: AXA-Anguilla
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
416. Kumo
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Now there's more ice at South Pole than ever (So much for global warming thawing Antarctica!)
Link


Note that they only mention sea ice in the article. I'd be interested to see how the volume of the land based ice has changed over the years as well as changes in forward motion of the glaciers.

I just keep thinking of how a snow pile spreads out as it melts, I suspect something similar may be going on with Antarctica.
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Quoting 7544:
i dont think if we do get sandy its going to be boring storm like the past one if the gfs is right around holloween time for fla or is really just GHOST STROM lol

Link


Yeah, looks menacing but it was actually sheared apart in that run, lol.
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I finished my local forecast blog which is found here. It is something new and I would like feedback. I am finally going to bed, night everyone.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Wow...Rafael is taking off tonight...I did a special update because of this.... It looks as though the center has regenerated once again into its t-storm activity (which is why the center is moving north along 65W when normally the strong ridge to its north should push it more west). I think this regeneration is why Rafael is doing really good right now...

I will do another special update if the intensification by 2 AM is even more than expected...
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I think that Hurricane Carlotta in the East pacific was a major hurricane.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

I have had 80kts(90mph) as my peak since this morning. I will write a tropical update blog in the morning explaining my thoughts. I am starting a Berkley, MI weekly forecast blog due to my independent study and it will be finished soon.


Looking forward to your update..
Congrats on the new forecast blog..
Link us through your WU blog.. :)
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

I believe we will end with 2 Majors this season...
TS ALBERTO
TS BERYL
C1 CHRIS
TS DEBBY
C2 ERNESTO (Upgraded to 100 mph)
TS FLORENCE
C3 GORDON (Upgraded to 115 mph)
TS HELENE
C1 ISAAC (Upgraded to 85 mph)
TS JOYCE
C2 KIRK (No Evidence supports upgrade, at this time)
C1 LESLIE
C3 MICHAEL (Upgraded to 125 mph)
C1 NADINE

TS OSCAR
TS PATTY
C1 RAFAEL
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
C1 SANDY?


do you think Helene could have made it to TS when it was near the Antilles first?
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hah! I was born during that one (eglin AFB near Ft walton beach). my poor mother.

Quoting KoritheMan:


It has historical precedence too.



I'd personally be interested in seeing that happen again eventually. From a historical standpoint, it would be stunning.
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Some sympathy for the Hurricane Hunters who look for a coc
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Quoting KoritheMan:


75 to 80 kt. Going with the former for now.

I have had 80kts(90mph) as my peak since this morning. I will write a tropical update blog in the morning explaining my thoughts. I am starting a Berkley, MI weekly forecast blog due to my independent study and it will be finished soon.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
405. 7544
i dont think if we do get sandy its going to be boring storm like the past one if the gfs is right around holloween time for fla or is really just GHOST STROM lol

Link
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Quoting wxchaser97:

They also mentioned intensity guidance with Rafael to base their forecast. I agree with you on what you are saying. How strong do you think Rafael and Paul will get?

On a side note, it is very gusty tonight where I am and the cold front is almost over me.


75 to 80 kt. Going with the former for now.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I'll say that Beryl could have touched 75 mph at some point...I have in mind that since the time it was around


I also think Chris was a hurricane much before NHC begrundingly declared him one. He had a great eye for a few advisories, and the NHC very snobbishly said "Even though he may be stronger" when they kept him at the same intensity after a while of this. I think they were just in denial that there was a hurricane so far north in the Atlantic in mid-June haha. I would go so far as to say he peaked around 80/85 mph. But I agree on all the other potential upgrades as well.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 617
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I'll say that Beryl could have touched 75 mph at some point...I have in mind that since the time it was around

I personally feel that Beryl did remain a tropical storm all of it's life. I don't think there is enough evidence for an upgrade.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

I believe we will end with 2 Majors this season...
TS ALBERTO
TS BERYL
C1 CHRIS
TS DEBBY
C2 ERNESTO (Upgraded to 100 mph)
TS FLORENCE
C3 GORDON (Upgraded to 115 mph)
TS HELENE
C1 ISAAC (Upgraded to 85 mph)
TS JOYCE
C2 KIRK (No Evidence supports upgrade, at this time)
C1 LESLIE
C3 MICHAEL (Upgraded to 125 mph)
C1 NADINE

TS OSCAR
TS PATTY
C1 RAFAEL
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
C1 SANDY?


I'll say that Beryl could have touched 75 mph at some point...I have in mind that since the time it was around
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I'm going to assume it comes from the monsoon through.


Interesting how all the hurricanes have been male names. Maybe Sandy will break this trend. I'm forecasting our ninja turtle to peak at 100mph.

Also, I've noticed a lot of you guys are spelling the storm's name as RAPHAEL, while the proper spelling is RAFAEL in this case. The latter is the Spanish-derived spelling of the name.


I didn't even notice this response, it must have been just before I edited my comment to correct the spelling of Refael. I did that a few minutes after posting my comment after reading it over as I refreshed the page.

So, although late, although me to return the favour and correct you:

Technically, Leslie was the first female name to break this trend, followed by Nadine. If Sandy managed to be our doombringer in the Gulf, she could very well be the third.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 617
Rafael:



Paul:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
MY FINAL NUMBERS:
19-10-2
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

A part of me hopes for it to blow up similar to Ophelia. At the very least, I hope for it to become a major. I refuse to believe this season will end with one lone major hurricane. Gordon and Kirk were majors in my eyes, and Michael may have been stronger than 115mph.

I believe we will end with 2 Majors this season...
TS ALBERTO
TS BERYL
C1 CHRIS
TS DEBBY
C2 ERNESTO (Upgraded to 100 mph)
TS FLORENCE
C3 GORDON (Upgraded to 115 mph)
TS HELENE
C1 ISAAC (Upgraded to 85 mph)
TS JOYCE
C2 KIRK (No Evidence supports upgrade, at this time)
C1 LESLIE
C3 MICHAEL (Upgraded to 125 mph)
C1 NADINE

TS OSCAR
TS PATTY
C1 RAFAEL
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
C1 SANDY?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wxchaser97:

They also mentioned intensity guidance with Rafael to base their forecast. I agree with you on what you are saying. How strong do you think Rafael and Paul will get?

On a side note, it is very gusty tonight where I am and the cold front is almost over me.

I think Paul will become a weak Cat 1.... and Rafael maybe a weak Cat 2.... thats just a guess tho
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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