Rafael intensifying, but is pulling away from the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:55 PM GMT on October 14, 2012

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Tropical Storm Rafael is intensifying, but is headed northwards away from the Lesser Antilles Islands, after bringing gusty winds and heavy rains to the islands over the past two days. Three-day rainfall amounts of 2 - 3" were common over the Leeward Islands, but the winds mostly stayed below tropical storm-force. Here are some of the peak wind gusts from Rafael and rainfall totals from Oct 11 through 10 am EDT October 14:

Barbados, 47 mph, 0.81"
Antigua: 37 mph, 3.66"
Martinique: 30 mph, 3.10"
St. Lucia: 39 mph, 2.07"
St. Martin: 45 mph, 2.56"
Guadaloupe: 36 mph, 2.51"
Dominica: 25 mph, 2.68"
St. Kiits: 34 mph, 3.47"

Satellite loops show that Rafael has gotten much more organized late this morning, with an impressive spiral band with very heavy thunderstorms to the east of the center. Heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops are forming over the center, the hallmark of an intensifying tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters found a central pressure of 997 mb, and winds at their 5,000-foot flight level of 68 mph this morning. Rafael is experiencing a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Rafael.

Forecast for Rafael
Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate range through Tuesday, which should allow Rafael to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane. Heavy rains will continue over the Leeward Islands today and diminish on Monday. A tropical storm watch has been posted for Bermuda, which is at risk of seeing tropical storm-force winds from Rafael on Tuesday. The 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 40% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds between Monday night and Wednesday morning, and a 6% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds. The models are pretty tightly clustered showing a track for Rafael to the east of Bermuda, which would put the island on the weaker (left front) side of the storm.

Tropical Storm Paul forms in the Eastern Pacific
Tropical Storm Paul formed yesterday in the East Pacific, and is headed northwards towards Mexico's Baja Peninsula. Paul's formation brings this year's tally of named storms in the East Pacific to sixteen, making 2012 just the third year since records began in 1949 that both the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic have had at least sixteen named storms. The other years were 2003 and 2008.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Anais in the Southwest Pacific taken at 2:05 am EDT Sunday October 14, 2012. At the time, Anais was a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds, the strongest tropical cyclone ever observed in the Southwest Pacific so early in their hurricane season. Image credit: NASA.

A rare early-season major tropical cyclone in the Southwest Indian Ocean
It's springtime in the Southern Hemisphere, where an unusual tropical cyclone has formed--Tropical Cyclone Anais, which hit Category 3 strength with 120 mph winds. According to Meteo France in La Reunion Island, Anais is the earliest major hurricane to form during the Southwest Indian Ocean's tropical cyclone season, which typically runs from November to May. Anais' formation in mid-October is akin to getting a major hurricane in the Atlantic during April, something which has never occurred (the earliest major hurricane on record in the Atlantic occurred on May 21, 1951.) Anais is the second earliest hurricane of any kind to form so early in the Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclone season, after Tropical Cyclone Blanche of October 10, 1969. Anais may reach Category 4 strength before cooler waters and increased wind shear weaken the storm as it approaches Madagascar.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting LargoFl:

why so windy?is it due to patty?
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Thanks, these are the days that I like up here. I may take a few pictures if I see anything interesting.

how bad
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Quoting LargoFl:
stay safe up there

Thanks, these are the days that I like up here. I may take a few pictures if I see anything interesting.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting flcanes:

i see were up to rafael,any down casters at this point r very wrong
yes and the next couple of weeks we need to be watchful for sure
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Quoting LargoFl:

very intense
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Quoting LargoFl:
ok

i see were up to rafael,any down casters at this point r very wrong
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Quoting flcanes:
i am back
ok
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Quoting LargoFl:
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
418 PM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LENAWEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 415 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF HUDSON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
MEDINA AND CANANDAIGUA AROUND 425 PM EDT.
CLAYTON AND SAND CREEK AROUND 430 PM EDT.
CADMUS AND ROME CENTER AROUND 435 PM EDT.
ADRIAN AND ONSTED AROUND 440 PM EDT.
TIPTON AROUND 445 PM EDT.
TECUMSEH AROUND 450 PM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
TECUMSEH... ONSTED... MORENCI...
HUDSON... DEERFIELD... CLINTON...
CLAYTON... CEMENT CITY... BRITTON...
BLISSFIELD... ADRIAN... ADDISON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED SOME WEAK ROTATION. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP
QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 4207 8436 4207 8402 4208 8401 4208 8378
4172 8376 4171 8436
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 226DEG 40KT 4178 8434
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 0.75IN

$$

BT
i am back
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
418 PM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LENAWEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 415 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTH OF HUDSON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
MEDINA AND CANANDAIGUA AROUND 425 PM EDT.
CLAYTON AND SAND CREEK AROUND 430 PM EDT.
CADMUS AND ROME CENTER AROUND 435 PM EDT.
ADRIAN AND ONSTED AROUND 440 PM EDT.
TIPTON AROUND 445 PM EDT.
TECUMSEH AROUND 450 PM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
TECUMSEH... ONSTED... MORENCI...
HUDSON... DEERFIELD... CLINTON...
CLAYTON... CEMENT CITY... BRITTON...
BLISSFIELD... ADRIAN... ADDISON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS EXHIBITED SOME WEAK ROTATION. TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP
QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ONE IS NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 4207 8436 4207 8402 4208 8401 4208 8378
4172 8376 4171 8436
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 226DEG 40KT 4178 8434
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 0.75IN

$$

BT
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PECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
335 PM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

MIZ047-048-053-142030-
BAY-MIDLAND-SAGINAW-
335 PM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 331 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS 36 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COLEMAN...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS BY THE TIME THEY
REACH THE TRI CITIES REGION.

* THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
OIL CITY BY 405 PM EDT...
SANFORD AND COLEMAN BY 415 PM EDT...
EDENVILLE BY 425 PM EDT...

A SECOND CLUSTER OF STORMS WAS LOCATED WEST OF LANSING ALSO MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHWEST
SAGINAW COUNTY AROUND 415 PM.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THE
STORMS HAVE PASSED.

$$

BT
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Quoting wxchaser97:
I got warnings of to my SW, things may get interesting soon. Ann Arbor is included in the warnings. Storms may produce 60mph winds and penny size hail, weak rotation is also indicated.
stay safe up there
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I got warnings of to my SW, things may get interesting soon. Ann Arbor is included in the warnings. Storms may produce 60mph winds and penny size hail, weak rotation is also indicated.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
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rafael and nadine might go hand and hand. Has anyone seen rafael's esembled model plot's image yet?
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Quoting Slamguitar:


My window is really moving around from the wind and rain. Some strong downpours and gusts have been making their way through.

I haven't got anything, yet. Already though winds have been gusting 30-40mph. I think I got a good chance of seeing strong storms. Stay safe Slam.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting wxchaser97:
Storms are now going severe in Michigan.


My window is really moving around from the wind and rain. Some strong downpours and gusts have been making their way through.
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Quoting LargoFl:
Blob off of africa, pretty big huh...............

Yes indeed. :)
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Tropical Storm Paul:

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Quoting nigel20:

Very impressive.


It is indeed.
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Nothing bad in terms of rain causing massive flooding is expected in PR.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
321 PM AST SUN OCT 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS TODAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN ONE
INCH. LIMITING FACTOR WAS THE CLOUD COVERAGE PRODUCED BY
RAFAEL...WHICH DIDN`T ALLOW STRONG DAYTIME HEATING TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA...ITS CIRCULATION WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A UNUSUAL
WIND FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT THE SURFACE...BECOMING VERY LIGHT BY WEDNESDAY. LATEST
12Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED A MOIST ENVIRONMENT AT LOW LEVEL OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT VERY DRY AT UPPER LEVEL. THIS...IN
COMBINATION WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
PUERTO RICO NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL TAF
SITES FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SHOWERS BRIEFLY AFFECT THE SITES. TSRA
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH THE EVENING AS
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST. LLVL WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY NORTH NORTHWESTERLY...AT 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. REFER TO LATEST OFFICIAL PRODUCTS
FOR LATEST INFORMATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 88 77 89 / 40 40 10 30
STT 78 87 79 88 / 70 70 40 40
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Blob off of africa, pretty big huh...............
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Quoting Civicane49:
Tropical Cyclone Anais:


Very impressive.
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Tropical Cyclone Anais:

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Thanks Dr Masters...good afternoon all!
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Storms are now going severe in Michigan.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
327 PM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN GRATIOT COUNTY IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN...
EASTERN ISABELLA COUNTY IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN...
EASTERN MONTCALM COUNTY IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT

* AT 325 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR STANTON..AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE
DAMAGING WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOUNT PLEASANT... EDMORE... STANTON...
ROSEBUSH... FERRIS TWP... CEDAR LAKE...
VICKERYVILLE... SIDNEY... CRYSTAL...
VESTABURG... MCBRIDE... SHERIDAN...
DELWIN... LEATON... WINN...
SHEPHERD... SEVILLE TWP... FOREST HILL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES
PER HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT
DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 4313 8500 4323 8520 4378 8474 4371 8459
4351 8460
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 214DEG 34KT 4327 8502
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <1.00IN

$$

NJJ
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
230 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2012

ILC031-043-142000-
/O.CON.KLOT.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-121014T2000Z/
DUPAGE IL-COOK IL-
230 PM CDT SUN OCT 14 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN COOK AND
NORTHERN DUPAGE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 226 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HANOVER PARK...OR NEAR ROSELLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
SCHAUMBURG...ELK GROVE VILLAGE AND HOFFMAN ESTATES AROUND 235 PM
CDT.
ROLLING MEADOWS...ARLINGTON HEIGHTS...PALATINE AND MOUNT PROSPECT
AROUND 240 PM CDT.
PROSPECT HEIGHTS AROUND 245 PM CDT.
WHEELING AND NORTHBROOK AROUND 250 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED...
DUPAGE COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...HARPER COLLEGE...OAKTON COMMUNITY
COLLEGE...SCHAUMBURG BOOMERS BASEBALL...WHEATON COLLEGE...

THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES MAY BE IMPACTED...

I-94 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 28 AND 34.
I-294 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 28 AND 34.
I-290 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 10.
I-355 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 27 AND 30.


LAT...LON 4215 8775 4212 8772 4180 8814 4198 8825
4215 8812
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 215DEG 38KT 4199 8811

$$

ENDERLEN
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one in the indian ocean also..........
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way out extended outlook
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108. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL STORM MARIA (T1222)
3:00 AM JST October 15 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near The Marianas

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Maria (992 hPa) located at 18.6N 142.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 22.7N 140.6E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Ogasawara waters
48 HRS: 26.7N 139.4E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) - Ogasawara waters
72 HRS: 30.0N 141.1E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) - Ogasawara waters

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #79
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
3:00 AM JST October 15 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon south of Minami daito

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (955 hPa) located at 22.8N 131.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
270 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 22.3N 130.5E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - south of Minami daito
48 HRS: 22.5N 128.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 23.7N 127.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
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106. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE ANAIS (01-20122013)
22:30 PM RET October 14 2012
==========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Anais (949 hPa) located at 11.9S 65.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D1.0/12HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
40 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
50 NM radius from the center extending up to 65 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 110 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 150 NM in the southeeastern quadrant and up to 180 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 13.8S 63.1E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 15.8S 60.0E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 17.2S 57.0E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION TROPICALE)

Additional Information
======================

Anais intensifies gradually and becomes the historical earlier knew intense tropical cyclone over the southwest Indian Ocean and the first one for October.

On this west southwestwards track, environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable within the next 12 to 24 hours in relationship with a good low level inflow on the both sides and good upper level context (efficient upper level divergence and weak vertical wind shear).

Monday , system is expected to begin weakening over marginal sea surface temperature and weakening oceanic heat potential. As atmospheric environment remains however favorable, system should weakening slowly in a first time then quickly on and after Tuesday. Winds should remain strong in the southern semi-circle, due to the gradient effect with the subtropical anticyclone. On Wednesday, upper level northwesterly wind shear is expected to increase sharply ahead of an upper tropospheric trough and system should weaken more rapidly. Several numerical weather prediction models (IFS ,ALADIN, and NOGAPS) are in good agreement and forecast a southwestwards track and a recurving movement on and after Thursday.

0:00 AM UTC ensemble EPS spread is now larger than the previous one with several members that forecast this southwards recurving track at medium range. RSMC Réunion privileges now this scenario.

Some available numerical weather prediction models (GFS, ARGEGE) forecast however a more meridian and southern track and UKMO and GFDN keeps on tracking the system globally westwards.
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105. 7544
Quoting LargoFl:
360 to 372 hours is the bad time down there......


yep things could get interesting close to the end of oct for fla could see 1 or more threats this time of the year imo
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Yo...yo...yo...

I got the 2 PM stuff by trying this fix found on the NHC webpage:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/browserhelp.shtml

Look under "The Stuck Browser Cache Fix"...it tells you how to fix this problem depending on the browser you are using...
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
200 PM AST SUN OCT 14 2012

...OUTER BANDS OF RAFAEL STILL PRODUCING RAIN OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 64.4W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH BERMUDA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41043...
LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...HAS RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO
47 MPH...75 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Derived from NHC_ATCF data for TropicalStormRaphael @ 14Oct.6pmGMT
19.8n64.0w has been re-evaluated&altered
19.7n63.9w-20.3n64.4w are now the most recent positions

NGD-Anegada :: AXA-Anguilla :: SXM-SintMaarten :: SAB-Saba
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1500 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 64.1W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 64.1W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 64.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 21.5N 65.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 23.2N 66.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 25.5N 66.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 29.1N 64.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 38.7N 58.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 48.5N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 50.5N 40.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 64.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Somethin' is up...I still can't get advisory 8A...the tropical weather discussion...nor the TWO to show up on a smartphone and two laptops...oh well...

This is what the top of the NHC webpage keeps saying:
Last update Sun, 14 Oct 2012 16:11:00 UTC
there is a 1500 on their site
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Indeed but that may change. We will cool off quite a bit next week around here, I won't be surprised if we don't hit 80 on Wednesday and especially by the weekend. Low temps inland will fall well into the 50's and 40's north. The crazy rainy season of 2012 is over and we are headed into Fall now.
ok ty, im glad the rainy season has ended whew
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Somethin' is up...I still can't get advisory 8A...the tropical weather discussion...nor the TWO to show up on a smartphone and two laptops...oh well...

This is what the top of the NHC webpage keeps saying:
Last update Sun, 14 Oct 2012 16:11:00 UTC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.