Tropical Storm Rafael drenching the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:15 PM GMT on October 13, 2012

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Tropical Storm Rafael formed late yesterday afternoon over the Lesser Antilles Islands, and is bringing gusty winds and very heavy rains to the islands today. Two-day rainfall amounts of 1 - 3" have been common over the Leeward Islands from Rafael, but the winds have stayed below tropical storm-force so far. Here are some of the peak gusts from Rafael as of noon EDT on Saturday:

Antigua: 37 mph
Martinique: 28 mph
St. Lucia: 39 mph
St. Martin: 26 mph

Satellite loops and radar loops show that Rafael has a large area of heavy thunderstorms to the east and southeast of the center. These thunderstorms are poorly organized, but were beginning to show a more organized spiral banding look late this morning. An upper-level low centered a few hundred miles south of the eastern Dominican Republic is pumping dry air into the west side of Rafael, and is creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear.


Figure 1. Radar image out of Martinique from 11:45 am EDT Saturday, October 13, 2012 showed a large area of heavy rain over nearly the entire Lesser Antilles Island chain due to Tropical Storm Rafael. Image credit: Meteo France.

Forecast for Rafael
The shear has dropped since Friday, and is is expected to remain in the moderate range through Monday, which should allow for some slow intensification of Rafael over the next few days. Heavy rains will continue over the entire Lesser Antilles Island chain, plus the Virgin Islands, today through Sunday. Puerto Rico can expect heavy rains on Sunday, but the dry air on the west side of Rafael should keep the Dominican Republic from seeing heavy rains. Rafael's strongest winds will be to the right of the center, and islands of Barbuda, Antigua, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Barthelemy, St. Eustatis, Anguilla, St. Martin, and Saba may see sustained winds as high as 45 mph Saturday night through Sunday as the strongest bands of Rafael move through. The only island at risk of seeing hurricane-force winds from Rafael is Bermuda. The 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 3% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds on Tuesday, and a 27% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds.

Rafael's place in history
Rafael is the seventeenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, putting this year in eighth place for busiest Atlantic season since record keeping began in 1851. Here are the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record:

2005 (28 named storms)
1933 (20 named storms, according to a new re-analysis)
1887 (19 named storms)
2010 (19 named storms)
2011 (19 named storms)
1995 (19 named storms)
1969 (18 named storms)
2012 (17 named storms)

There are two weak and short-lived storms from 2012 that stayed far out sea, and would likely have gone unnoticed in the pre-satellite era (before 1960): Tropical Storm Joyce and Tropical Storm Oscar. And while this season has been very busy for total number of named storms, we've had a below-average number of major hurricanes (just Hurricane Michael), and the total destructive power of the 2012 hurricane season as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is only about 20% above average. See our newly-launched Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) page for a storm-by-storm breakdown of this years ACE, plus historical ACE stats for each ocean basin. Thanks go to Angela Fritz for putting this together!


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Patty taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday, October 12, 2012. At the time, Patty had top winds of 40 mph. High wind shear had exposed the lower-level circulation to view. Late on Saturday morning, wind shear had ripped Patty apart and the storm was declared dead. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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714. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:57 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Rafael is developing an eye.



I'll be back later...again. We are going to go feed the Ducks and hopefully not get at take by alligators, lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31537
713. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
3:55 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
712. Xandra
3:52 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Felix Baumgartner freefall skydive from space – live stream
Member Since: November 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1281
711. Chicklit
3:52 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
LinkFelix is over 26,000 feet 11:51 EST
"Concensus here is it'll (the human body) be alright...when he breaks the sound barrier.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11186
710. Skyepony (Mod)
3:50 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
POES Imagery Eastern Atlantic AMSU 89 GHz Loop
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37433
709. Thing342
3:45 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Eye-like feature trying to form on Rafael.
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 436
708. etxwx
3:45 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
BBC is reporting Felix Baumgartner is on his way.
Link
Member Since: September 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1458
707. Grothar
3:39 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25421
706. Neapolitan
3:37 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Quoting SFLWeatherman:

Is this what global warming looks like? Over 2000 new low temperature records set in October.
That's a lot of cold records. But so long as you're going to talk about just U.S. temperature records, it would do you well to pay attention to the larger picture. Here, allow me to help you; that skinny blue stalactite at the right end is this month's cold records. All those thick red stalagmites are this year's warm records:

temp
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13466
705. wxchaser97
3:31 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Quoting Ameister12:
It's gonna be a stormy day.

Tornado Probability


Wind Probability


Hail Probability

Hey severe wind threat and tornado threat slowly creeping into S MI. I could get something after all.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
704. clamshell
3:31 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Actually, no. Record setting warm temperatures fall under the same exact same stipulation. A month of higher than average temperatures or lower than average temperatures really has nothing to do with global warming. Even a record warm year or record cold year isn't significant when it comes to climate.

That's because climate is measured on decadal scales. If warmer than average or colder than average temperatures persist consistently for a couple of decades, THAT's when it becomes significant.

That's why we know the globe is warming. Temperatures have been steadily rising for quite some time now, which was predicted as far back as the late 1800's.


As I wrote earlier...

"...

Like that bumper sticker says...

The AGW gang says it is true, I believe them and thats all there is to it.

Why bother, its all settled isn't it."






Member Since: June 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 125
703. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:28 PM GMT on October 14, 2012

WOW...120 MPH MAJOR STORM!!!
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14871
702. Ameister12
3:26 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
It's gonna be a stormy day.

Tornado Probability


Wind Probability


Hail Probability
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4903
701. Xyrus2000
3:23 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Quoting clamshell:


Absolutely correct.

Record setting HIGH temperature are evidence of AGW and record setting low temperatures are simply WEATHER.

Like that bumber sticker says...

The AGW gang says it is true, I believe them and thats all there is to it.

Why bother, its all settled isn't it.




Actually, no. Record setting warm temperatures fall under the same exact same stipulation. A month of higher than average temperatures or lower than average temperatures really has nothing to do with global warming. Even a record warm year or record cold year isn't significant when it comes to climate.

That's because climate is measured on decadal scales. If warmer than average or colder than average temperatures persist consistently for a couple of decades, THAT's when it becomes significant.

That's why we know the globe is warming. Temperatures have been steadily rising for quite some time now, which was predicted as far back as the late 1800's.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1457
700. luvtogolf
3:20 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Quoting clamshell:


Absolutely correct.

Record setting HIGH temperature are evidence of AGW and record setting low temperatures are simply WEATHER.

Like that bumber sticker says...

The AGW gang says it is true, I believe them and thats all there is to it.

Why bother, its all settled isn't it.




Record highs are get press and blogged,record lows are ignored.
Member Since: June 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 940
699. Tazmanian
3:19 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
i noted that we have 23W.MARIA in the W PAC
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114765
698. Xyrus2000
3:15 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
...its all guesswork BUT...


No it isn't. Climate science builds on the peer-reviewed research across multiple scientific disciplines. Claiming that climate science is all guess work is like claiming Bernoulli's principle is guesswork or that fluid dynamics is guesswork. And if you're claiming as such, you're going to need an amazing amount of evidence to make such a claim.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1457
697. clamshell
3:10 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Quoting Xyrus2000:


No, that's what WEATHER looks like. Global warming is related to CLIMATE. They are not the same thing.


Absolutely correct.

Record setting HIGH temperature are evidence of AGW and record setting low temperatures are simply WEATHER.

Like that bumber sticker says...

The AGW gang says it is true, I believe them and thats all there is to it.

Why bother, its all settled isn't it.


Member Since: June 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 125
696. Ameister12
3:08 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Paul's still a 50mph tropical storm.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4903
695. Xyrus2000
3:07 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
i think someone said with global warming comes hotter summers, more severe storms both summer and winter and in winter, colder temps...we'll see if he was right in the years to come, remember these changes come..over many many years, maybe even lifetimes to come..we'll see...maybe


Not exactly. Global warming implies that the global average temperature is rising. How this affects different regions of the globe is dependent on many factors, including geography and ocean currents. Some areas will get warmer. Some will get colder. Some will get wetter. Some will get drier.

In any case, more energy in the atmosphere means more chances for extreme events. That doesn't mean every extreme event is related to global warming, it just means that there is a greater chance of them occurring.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1457
694. Xyrus2000
3:02 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Is this what global warming looks like? Over 2000 new low temperature records set in October

Link


No, that's what WEATHER looks like. Global warming is related to CLIMATE. They are not the same thing.
Member Since: October 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1457
693. Ameister12
3:01 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF RAFAEL IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING. THE
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A BURST OF
CONVECTION WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EVIDENT OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION. A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 997 MB...WHICH IS SEVERAL MILLIBARS LOWER THAN 12 HOURS AGO.
THE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY SAMPLING THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
STORM. FOR THE FIRST TIME...STRONG WINDS WERE MEASURED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER ON A PASS EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE
AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 57 KT...AND
RAIN CORRECTED SFMR VALUES OF AROUND 45 KT. BASED OF THIS
DATA...AND THE ASSUMPTION THAT STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
INCREASED TO 50 KT.

RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS NOT IS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. NEARLY ALL OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS RAFAEL TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST. AFTER 48
HOURS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE
SOME WEAKENING. RAFAEL WILL LIKELY BEGIN ITS TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 72 HOURS AS IT STARTS TO INTERACT A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE COMPLETE WITHIN 96
HOURS AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/10 KT. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST
AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO BEGIN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME SPEED
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH
SLOWER THAN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE AS IT KEEPS RAFAEL WEAKER AND
SHALLOWER. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE FASTER GFS/GFDL SOLUTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 20.0N 64.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 21.5N 65.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 23.2N 66.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 25.5N 66.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 29.1N 64.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 38.7N 58.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 48.5N 48.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 19/1200Z 50.5N 40.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4903
692. Ameister12
3:00 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Interesting, looks like an eye is starting to show.

Yeah, I noticed that too. Definitely becoming a nicely organized tropical cyclone.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4903
691. CybrTeddy
2:58 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Quoting Ameister12:
60mph Rafael. Nice convection firing over the LLC.


Interesting, looks like an eye is starting to show.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23619
690. stoormfury
2:57 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Could the development off the coast of Panama ,be the result of the tropical wave, with a 1012mb low in the eatl.,or is this system another lesser antilles threat.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2626
689. Ameister12
2:56 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
60mph Rafael. Nice convection firing over the LLC.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4903
688. CybrTeddy
2:55 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Rafael is up to 60mph.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23619
687. yqt1001
2:54 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Everyone, I would like to remind you that Anais is a pre-season storm. SWIO starts in November.

Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1285
686. Thing342
2:53 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
000
WTNT22 KNHC 141449
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1500 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 64.1W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 64.1W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 64.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 21.5N 65.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 23.2N 66.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 25.5N 66.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 29.1N 64.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 38.7N 58.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 48.5N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 50.5N 40.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 64.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 436
685. SLU
2:52 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 14:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)

Storm Number & Year: 17L in 2012

Storm Name: Rafael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 4

Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 14:17:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°56'N 64°06'W (19.9333N 64.1W)
B. Center Fix Location: 166 miles (267 km) to the NE (51°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 656m (2,152ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the W (262°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 29° at 34kts (From the NNE at ~ 39.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the W (262°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 764m (2,507ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 766m (2,513ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:20:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:20:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4899
684. Bobbyweather
2:52 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

That would be,,,, all year round. The WPAC is like that due to very high SST's that practically stay high all year round.

Thus the tropical cyclone year. That means the depression you mentioned falls into the last season (2011-12).
I thought the Southwest Indian basin is similar to the WPac, is it not?

(Good night- I'm going to sleep also)
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2653
683. MAweatherboy1
2:51 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Rafael is up to 60mph.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7636
682. wxchaser97
2:51 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Rafael is now up to 60mph and 997mb.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
681. Ameister12
2:51 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Advisories should be out any moment.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4903
680. MAweatherboy1
2:49 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7636
679. Articuno
2:49 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Who wants to chat?
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2301
678. Ameister12
2:48 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:


20121014 1200 -11.4 -65.8 T6.0/6.0 01S ANAIS


Any idea why there is no floater on Anais?









Don't know. There was a floater up when it was an invest, but they took it down for what ever reason.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4903
677. AussieStorm
2:45 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Quoting Bobbyweather:

True. It's like the Western Pacific, where there is a large amount of water.

By the way, a Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone year is defined as beginning July 1, and ending June 30.

That would be,,,, all year round. The WPAC is like that due to very high SST's that practically stay high all year round.

Goodnight one and all.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
676. superpete
2:45 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning

The system the GFS develops starts out as a low pressure North of Panama on the 25th October, just 11 days out. While this is still long range, the GFS has been quite good at the 10 day mark and in as we have seen several times before.

It will be interesting to see if the model persists with this feature.


It sure will Kman.. I said a month ago we would get a storm threat as soon as I booked our flights off island for a trip to Jamaica , about end of Oct' ....LOL
Member Since: October 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 636
675. MAweatherboy1
2:45 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
What a beast!



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 OCT 2012 Time : 140000 UTC
Lat : 11:34:47 S Lon : 65:38:58 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 943.4mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.4 6.4
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7636
674. AussieStorm
2:44 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


With the RSMC showing T6.0 in their advisory, 115 knots (Category 4) is likely noted from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.


20121014 1200 -11.4 -65.8 T6.0/6.0 01S ANAIS


Any idea why there is no floater on Anais?








Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
673. Bobbyweather
2:44 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

And remember this one. TD 21P 06/28/2012 way out of season.






If all the ingredients are there, it is possible any time of year for a Tropical Cyclone to form.

True. It's like the Western Pacific, where there is a large amount of water.

By the way, a Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone year is defined as beginning July 1, and ending June 30.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2653
672. Skyepony (Mod)
2:42 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 14:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 17L in 2012
Storm Name: Rafael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 14:17:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°56'N 64°06'W (19.9333N 64.1W)
B. Center Fix Location: 166 miles (267 km) to the NE (51°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 656m (2,152ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the W (262°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 29° at 34kts (From the NNE at ~ 39.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 34 nautical miles (39 statute miles) to the W (262°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 764m (2,507ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 766m (2,513ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:20:00Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 14:20:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37433
671. AussieStorm
2:40 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


IMO there is not really a starting season for the southwestern Indian Ocean. They had a cyclone in June ("Kuena")

And remember this one. TD 21P 06/28/2012 way out of season.






If all the ingredients are there, it is possible any time of year for a Tropical Cyclone to form.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
670. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:38 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Quoting Bobbyweather:

You should remember most RSMCs and TCWCs use 10-minute sustained winds. The only RSMC that uses 1-minute sustained winds is the NHC (the IMD uses 3-min winds). JTWC is an unofficial tropical cyclone forecast center.


With the RSMC showing T6.0 in their advisory, 115 knots (Category 4) is likely noted from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44849
669. Bobbyweather
2:35 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

Yup, I just checked ADT and it had Anais at 117.4kts or around 135mph. I'm sure that is not 100mph like their cyclone forecasting center says.

You should remember most RSMCs and TCWCs use 10-minute sustained winds. The only RSMC that uses 1-minute sustained winds is the NHC (the IMD uses 3-min winds). JTWC is an unofficial tropical cyclone forecast center.
Member Since: September 7, 2006 Posts: 89 Comments: 2653
668. Dragod66
2:34 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
"What big eye you have"



"The better to see you, my dear"
Member Since: August 24, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 604
667. Ameister12
2:32 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

Ok, well just 15 minutes ago it was shown as a cat2. That is a forecast I agree with.

Yeah, I'm expecting a 115-120kt. peak before it encounters a hostile environment to its south.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4903
666. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:26 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Quoting Ameister12:
Anais is predicted to become a Category 4! Keep in mind, the season doesn't start until November 1st!


IMO there is not really a starting season for the southwestern Indian Ocean. They had a cyclone in June ("Kuena")
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44849
665. wxchaser97
2:26 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Quoting Ameister12:
Anais is predicted to become a Category 4! Keep in mind, the season doesn't start until November 1st!

Ok, well just 15 minutes ago it was shown as a cat2. That is a forecast I agree with.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
664. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:24 PM GMT on October 14, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL STORM MARIA (T1222)
21:00 PM JST October 14 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near The Marianas

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Maria (1002 hPa) located at 17.9N 143.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 20.2N 141.4E - 40 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Ogasawara waters
48 HRS: 22.4N 140.6E - 40 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Ogasawara waters
72 HRS: 24.6N 140.2E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Ogasawara waters

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #77
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
21:00 PM JST October 14 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon south of Minami daito

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 22.6N 131.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 22.6N 131.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - south of Minami daito
48 HRS: 22.6N 128.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 23.8N 127.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44849

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.