Tropical Storm Rafael drenching the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:15 PM GMT on October 13, 2012

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Tropical Storm Rafael formed late yesterday afternoon over the Lesser Antilles Islands, and is bringing gusty winds and very heavy rains to the islands today. Two-day rainfall amounts of 1 - 3" have been common over the Leeward Islands from Rafael, but the winds have stayed below tropical storm-force so far. Here are some of the peak gusts from Rafael as of noon EDT on Saturday:

Antigua: 37 mph
Martinique: 28 mph
St. Lucia: 39 mph
St. Martin: 26 mph

Satellite loops and radar loops show that Rafael has a large area of heavy thunderstorms to the east and southeast of the center. These thunderstorms are poorly organized, but were beginning to show a more organized spiral banding look late this morning. An upper-level low centered a few hundred miles south of the eastern Dominican Republic is pumping dry air into the west side of Rafael, and is creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear.


Figure 1. Radar image out of Martinique from 11:45 am EDT Saturday, October 13, 2012 showed a large area of heavy rain over nearly the entire Lesser Antilles Island chain due to Tropical Storm Rafael. Image credit: Meteo France.

Forecast for Rafael
The shear has dropped since Friday, and is is expected to remain in the moderate range through Monday, which should allow for some slow intensification of Rafael over the next few days. Heavy rains will continue over the entire Lesser Antilles Island chain, plus the Virgin Islands, today through Sunday. Puerto Rico can expect heavy rains on Sunday, but the dry air on the west side of Rafael should keep the Dominican Republic from seeing heavy rains. Rafael's strongest winds will be to the right of the center, and islands of Barbuda, Antigua, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Barthelemy, St. Eustatis, Anguilla, St. Martin, and Saba may see sustained winds as high as 45 mph Saturday night through Sunday as the strongest bands of Rafael move through. The only island at risk of seeing hurricane-force winds from Rafael is Bermuda. The 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 3% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds on Tuesday, and a 27% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds.

Rafael's place in history
Rafael is the seventeenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, putting this year in eighth place for busiest Atlantic season since record keeping began in 1851. Here are the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record:

2005 (28 named storms)
1933 (20 named storms, according to a new re-analysis)
1887 (19 named storms)
2010 (19 named storms)
2011 (19 named storms)
1995 (19 named storms)
1969 (18 named storms)
2012 (17 named storms)

There are two weak and short-lived storms from 2012 that stayed far out sea, and would likely have gone unnoticed in the pre-satellite era (before 1960): Tropical Storm Joyce and Tropical Storm Oscar. And while this season has been very busy for total number of named storms, we've had a below-average number of major hurricanes (just Hurricane Michael), and the total destructive power of the 2012 hurricane season as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is only about 20% above average. See our newly-launched Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) page for a storm-by-storm breakdown of this years ACE, plus historical ACE stats for each ocean basin. Thanks go to Angela Fritz for putting this together!


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Patty taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday, October 12, 2012. At the time, Patty had top winds of 40 mph. High wind shear had exposed the lower-level circulation to view. Late on Saturday morning, wind shear had ripped Patty apart and the storm was declared dead. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Good morning. A few showers are moving from the NW into the North Coast of PR this morning as Rafael is to our NE moving away.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14574
613. atris
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (1km Mercator, MODIS/AVHRR) of Rafael from the RAMMB Site

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
416 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172 >174-GMZ656-657-676-
142330-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
416 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES...
...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE ATLANTIC COAST...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES DUE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS. STRONG RIP CURRENTS
WILL DEVELOP, LEADING TO DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS.

THUNDERSTORMS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE
GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40 MPH AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

WIND: SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS BISCAYNE BAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

FLOODING: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG BOTH THE BAY
SIDE AND OCEAN SIDE OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST
WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS.

WAVES: SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF STREAM
WATERS TODAY AND ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MIGHT BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
EARLY IN THE WEEK DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.
THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST AT HIGH TIDE.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTH FLORIDA.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41002
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning.
Bright and sunny so far, but a chance of showers later then clearing again.

Oh, and by the way.... if you can read this, you are alive and have survived another day.
Give Thanks !
..good morning pottery
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41002
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41002
Good Morning.
Bright and sunny so far, but a chance of showers later then clearing again.

Oh, and by the way.... if you can read this, you are alive and have survived another day.
Give Thanks !
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No 50's in the morning for my area...........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41002
windy on the east coast huh...not too bad by me
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11432
We lived in Wellington, FL for 18 years and we move to Loxahatchee in Sep!:)
Quoting icmoore:


That's a new one on me and I've lived in FL all my 57 years :) So you are all the way across the state and south of me.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
I live in Loxahatchee, FL!!:) lol


That's a new one on me and I've lived in FL all my 57 years :) So you are all the way across the state and south of me.
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morning

There is an insignificant area in the far eastern atlantic 9n 35w which catches my attention. The area has some cyclonic turning ,but little convection. it is at the base of an ULL and it is moving west.what i have notice in the past these areas appear to be nothing initially,but as they traverse the atlantic and get closer to the islands some degee of organisation start to fester. IT may not be anything, but i will still keep it as an area of interest.
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I live in Loxahatchee, FL!!:) lol
Quoting icmoore:


Ouch 50's and 60's :) I'm a wuss so I'd have to be bundlin' up LOL. Do you live a little inland? Being near the Gulf the temps are warmer than the more southern inland areas.
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11432
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
temps this week I will see a low down in the 50's and 60's and a highs in the 70's and low 80's !!:)



Ouch 50's and 60's :) I'm a wuss so I'd have to be bundlin' up LOL. Do you live a little inland? Being near the Gulf the temps are warmer than the more southern inland areas.
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temps this week I will see a low down in the 50's and 60's and a highs in the 70's and low 80's !!:)

Quoting icmoore:
Good morning. Well, I guess I have to admit my favorite season (summer) is gone for another year. Gone are the wonderful hot 90 degree temps and this week I see a low down in the 60's and a high in the 70's. But for today sunny and 86 :) Have a great Sunday everyone.
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6 to 10days!:)
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it is 69!!:)
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mojo strong right now should be letting up in a wk or so
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Good morning. Well, I guess I have to admit my favorite season (summer) is gone for another year. Gone are the wonderful hot 90 degree temps and this week I see a low down in the 60's and a high in the 70's. But for today sunny and 86 :) Have a great Sunday everyone.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Tropics all over the world are pretty active with 4 storms. Could see a couple storms in the Caribbean if we get a mjo pulse as strong as forecasted.

could we see a lighting of the WCAR BOMB?? hope not but wondering. think the blog would move at a supersonic pace if that happened.:)
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Rafael:

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TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF PAUL IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY IS A BIT
MISLEADING. A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAS FORMED IN RECENT HOURS...AND A WELL-DEFINED CURVED
BAND IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THERE
REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE WESTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX....WITH THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SEPARATED BY 20-30 N MI. WHILE DVORAK
T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 3.0 FROM BOTH SATELLITE AGENCIES...THE 0526 UTC
ASCAT PASS ONLY SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 40 KT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH THESE DATA.

PAUL HAS BEEN MOVING ON A WESTERLY HEADING BUT AT A SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED...AND THE LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08. THE CYCLONE IS
REACHING A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN
END OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR
26N 122W SHOULD APPROACH THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...
CAUSING PAUL TO TURN ABRUPTLY NORTHWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. AFTER 96 HOURS...PAUL SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN
WESTWARD AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...ASSUMING THAT IT MAINTAINS ITS
VERTICAL INTEGRITY. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE OVERALL SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IS FAIRLY
LOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT TO THE LEFT OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS THROUGH 36 HOURS.

THE EASTERLY SHEAR PLAGUING PAUL HAS APPARENTLY NOT SUBSIDED...EVEN
THOUGH SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES SUGGEST OTHERWISE.
HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. A
SHARP INCREASE OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY IN 48-72 HOURS AS PAUL
INTERACTS WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEARING IT...AND STEADY
WEAKENING IS FORECAST EVEN THOUGH SSTS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY BE
DECREASING. BY 96 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER EVEN COOLER
WATERS...AND COULD DECOUPLE ONCE THE SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVELY
HIGH. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE LGEM AND INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AIDS ICON AND IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 14.3N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 15.1N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 16.6N 115.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 21.1N 114.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 25.7N 114.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 28.0N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 28.6N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
RAFAEL HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN ALSO INDICATES A
NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS NOW WRAPPED COMPLETELY AROUND THE
CIRCULATION CENTER...SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE IS GETTING BETTER
ORGANIZED. FURTHERMORE...INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS EXPANDED IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE...WHICH IS AN INDICATION THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS
LESSENED. HOWEVER...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS STILL ELONGATED IN A
NORTH-SOUTH CONFIGURATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING
MAINTAINED AT 45 KT...GIVEN THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL
AND THE ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN STEADY AT T3.1/47 KT
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/11 KT. A FAIR PRESENTATION IN THE
REFLECTIVITY AND DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA FROM SAN JUAN SUGGEST THAT
RAFAEL HAS STARTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND GRADUALLY SLIDES
EASTWARD. AFTER THAT...A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 48 HOURS. THESE FEATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO ERODE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF RAFAEL...AND ALLOW
CYCLONE TO RECURVE INTO THE HIGH-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE NHC
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO...
EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT SPEED DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A
SLIGHT OUTLIER AFTER 72 HOURS...AND IS THE RIGHTMOST OF ALL OF THE
MODELS DUE ITS MORE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

RAFAEL REMAINS IN A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BRIEF PERIODS WHERE THE SHEAR ABATES...SUCH AS
HAS BEEN HAPPENING SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THAT WILL ALLOW
FOR RAFAEL TO STRENGTHEN. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES
THE STRENGTHENING TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE VERTICAL
SHEAR INCREASES SHARPLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
MODELS. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 120 HR...IF
NOT SOONER...WHEN THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT.

USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SINCE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS
EXTEND WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 19.4N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 20.7N 64.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 22.5N 65.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 24.1N 66.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 27.1N 65.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 36.2N 60.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 46.1N 52.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 50.4N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012

...PAUL SLOWING DOWN...
...FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD BY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 114.5W
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED...
...SQUALLS WITH HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 63.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NNW OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
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587. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24
15:00 PM JST October 14 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near The Marianas

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 17.5N 143.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 19.2N 142.0E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Marianas
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586. JLPR2
Seriously? I can almost hear Rafael saying: Eekk, Eeeek! Too Close to Puerto Rico!

:\
C'mon Rafael, at least one decent band, then you can go away.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
17L.Rafael ADT
Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.83 ARC in DK GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 1.00 ARC in DK GRAY
at Lat: 19:05:24 N Lon: 62:52:48 W

Hmm... interesting
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584. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
CYCLONE TROPICAL ANAIS (01-20122013)
10:30 AM RET October 14 2012
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Anais (975 hPa) located at 11.1S 66.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 with gusts of 105. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
20 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
30 NM radius from the center extending up to 40 NM radius from the center in the western semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center extending up to 80 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
110 radius from the center, extending up to 200 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 260 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 12.7S 64.0E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 14.0S 60.5E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 15.4S 56.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
======================

Anais re-intensifies gradually since 0000 AM UTC. On this west southwestwards track, environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable within the next 24 to 36 hours in relationship with a good low level inflow on the both sides and good upper level context (efficient upper level divergence and weak vertical wind shear).

Monday, system is expected to begin weakening over marginal sea surface temperature and weakening oceanic heat potential. As atmospheric environment remains however favorable, system should weakening slowly in a first time then quickly on and after Tuesday. Winds should remain strong in the southern semi-circle, due to the gradient effect with the subtropical anticyclone.

On Wednesday, upper level northwesterly wind shear is expected to increase sharply ahead of an upper tropospheric trough and system should weaken more rapidly. 13/1200 PM UTC, deterministic numerical weather prediction ifs purpose a slight southwards recurving movement at the ending term of its forecast track. Its ensemble EPS members spread is however rather thin around its mean tracking westwards towards northeastern Malagasy coastline. NOGAPS, UKMO and GFDN numerical weather prediction tracker are in good agreement with the ifs scenario.

Current RSMC forecast track is close to this zonal west southwestwards scenario. Some available numerical weather prediction models (GFS, ARPEGE) forecast however a more meridian and southern track.
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583. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #75
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
15:00 PM JST October 14 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 22.4N 130.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 22.7N 130.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
48 HRS: 22.4N 128.8E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 23.6N 126.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Ok, once the COC goes N of PR, please, TURN OFF the Arecibo RadioObservatory.... We need some rain...



SI SI piensas igual que yo LOL
Member Since: September 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 483
hey guys I hope Bermuda is ready for TS Rafael

and also with the atlantic going to get its Mojo going with the MJO I think we will see 4 maybe up to 5 more storms in the caribbean and as we get into late Oct and Nov it will be the W caribbeans time to get immpacted

my seasons final numbers
20 NS 10 H 3 MH


anyway I hope CaribBoy is enjoying himself you know him always beggin for the storm to come by him so he can get the downpours
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Quoting Dragod66:


chat?


You're not on.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Blog update.

NC, if you're still around, I do think Rafael will move a bit more west before the trough sets in.


chat?
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Title: Bayou Corne Sinkhole Flyover
Source: Louisiana Environmental Action Network
Pilot: Lance Rydberg
Photographer: Jeffrey Dubinsky
Date: October 12, 2012

A thick slick of crude oil can be seen covering much of the sinkhole [...] oil and water can be seen flowing from the sinkhole into the adjacent environment.

Wow, what a disaster, so sad....
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Blog update.
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Quoting Thing342:
Madagascar might need to watch this one.


Yep.

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Quoting Ameister12:
The Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclone season doesn't start until November 1 and there's already an extremely impressive tropical cyclone out there.


Total impressive lil' thang. And heading for poor ol' Madagascar..hope it's not another year for them to get pummeled :/

Otherwise, I do hope Cariboy is getting his rain finally!!!

Here in N Wales, leaves are turning (they were turning at the beginning of Sept last year!) and the heater has turned itself on this week from it's set thermostat (which is quite low as I don't mind cold as much as hot) much later than last year. Oh, and I got 1st place at the first competition for my camera clubs' competition for the season, YAY! A few storms to watch and who knows what else will brew. So long as no big wind storms blow all the turning leaves from the leaves prematurely, a fine week!
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Quoting Civicane49:
Madagascar might need to watch this one.
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FINAL HR 144

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.