Tropical Storm Rafael drenching the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:15 PM GMT on October 13, 2012

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Tropical Storm Rafael formed late yesterday afternoon over the Lesser Antilles Islands, and is bringing gusty winds and very heavy rains to the islands today. Two-day rainfall amounts of 1 - 3" have been common over the Leeward Islands from Rafael, but the winds have stayed below tropical storm-force so far. Here are some of the peak gusts from Rafael as of noon EDT on Saturday:

Antigua: 37 mph
Martinique: 28 mph
St. Lucia: 39 mph
St. Martin: 26 mph

Satellite loops and radar loops show that Rafael has a large area of heavy thunderstorms to the east and southeast of the center. These thunderstorms are poorly organized, but were beginning to show a more organized spiral banding look late this morning. An upper-level low centered a few hundred miles south of the eastern Dominican Republic is pumping dry air into the west side of Rafael, and is creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear.


Figure 1. Radar image out of Martinique from 11:45 am EDT Saturday, October 13, 2012 showed a large area of heavy rain over nearly the entire Lesser Antilles Island chain due to Tropical Storm Rafael. Image credit: Meteo France.

Forecast for Rafael
The shear has dropped since Friday, and is is expected to remain in the moderate range through Monday, which should allow for some slow intensification of Rafael over the next few days. Heavy rains will continue over the entire Lesser Antilles Island chain, plus the Virgin Islands, today through Sunday. Puerto Rico can expect heavy rains on Sunday, but the dry air on the west side of Rafael should keep the Dominican Republic from seeing heavy rains. Rafael's strongest winds will be to the right of the center, and islands of Barbuda, Antigua, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Barthelemy, St. Eustatis, Anguilla, St. Martin, and Saba may see sustained winds as high as 45 mph Saturday night through Sunday as the strongest bands of Rafael move through. The only island at risk of seeing hurricane-force winds from Rafael is Bermuda. The 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 3% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds on Tuesday, and a 27% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds.

Rafael's place in history
Rafael is the seventeenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, putting this year in eighth place for busiest Atlantic season since record keeping began in 1851. Here are the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record:

2005 (28 named storms)
1933 (20 named storms, according to a new re-analysis)
1887 (19 named storms)
2010 (19 named storms)
2011 (19 named storms)
1995 (19 named storms)
1969 (18 named storms)
2012 (17 named storms)

There are two weak and short-lived storms from 2012 that stayed far out sea, and would likely have gone unnoticed in the pre-satellite era (before 1960): Tropical Storm Joyce and Tropical Storm Oscar. And while this season has been very busy for total number of named storms, we've had a below-average number of major hurricanes (just Hurricane Michael), and the total destructive power of the 2012 hurricane season as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is only about 20% above average. See our newly-launched Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) page for a storm-by-storm breakdown of this years ACE, plus historical ACE stats for each ocean basin. Thanks go to Angela Fritz for putting this together!


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Patty taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday, October 12, 2012. At the time, Patty had top winds of 40 mph. High wind shear had exposed the lower-level circulation to view. Late on Saturday morning, wind shear had ripped Patty apart and the storm was declared dead. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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664. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL STORM MARIA (T1222)
21:00 PM JST October 14 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near The Marianas

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Maria (1002 hPa) located at 17.9N 143.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 20.2N 141.4E - 40 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Ogasawara waters
48 HRS: 22.4N 140.6E - 40 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Ogasawara waters
72 HRS: 24.6N 140.2E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Ogasawara waters

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #77
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
21:00 PM JST October 14 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon south of Minami daito

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 22.6N 131.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 22.6N 131.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - south of Minami daito
48 HRS: 22.6N 128.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 23.8N 127.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
Anais is predicted to become a Category 4! Keep in mind, the season doesn't start until November 1st!
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662. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE ANAIS (01-20122013)
16:30 PM RET October 14 2012
==========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Anais (953 hPa) located at 11.4S 65.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 with gusts of 130. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D1.5/18HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
35 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
50 NM radius from the center extending up to 65 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 110 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
110 radius from the center, extending up to 150 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 180 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 13.3S 63.7E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 15.3S 60.7E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 17.0S 57.6E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
======================

Anais intensifies gradually since 0:00 AM UTC and becomes the historical earlier intense tropical cyclone over the southwest Indian Ocean.

On this west southwestwards track, environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable within the next 12 to 24 hours in relationship with a good low level inflow on the both sides and good upper level context (efficient upper level divergence and weak vertical wind shear).

Monday , system is expected to begin weakening over marginal sea surface temperature and weakening oceanic heat potential. As atmospheric environment remains however favorable, system should weakening slowly in a first time then quickly on and after Tuesday. Winds should remain strong in the southern semi-circle, due to the gradient effect with the subtropical anticyclone. On Wednesday, upper level northwesterly wind shear is expected to increase sharply ahead of an upper tropospheric trough and system should weaken more rapidly.

13/0000z deterministic numerical weather prediction ifs is in agreement with ALADIN and forecast a more southern track than previously and a southwards recurving movement at the ending term of its forecast track.

Its 0:00 AM UTC ensemble EPS spread is now larger than the previous one with several members that forecast this southwards recurving track at medium range. RSMC Réunion privileges now this scenario.

Some available numerical weather prediction models (GFS, ARGEGE) forecast however a more meridian and southern track as UKMO numerical weather prediction models keeps on tracking globally westwards.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43657
Quoting Ameister12:
Anais is likely the equivalent to an Atlantic major hurricane right now. Over 100 kts.


Yup, I just checked ADT and it had Anais at 117.4kts or around 135mph. I'm sure that is not 100mph like their cyclone forecasting center says.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
Good morning!

Anais is the equivalent of an Atlantic major hurricane right now. 105 knots.

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We saw our first snow day before yesterday at the 10,000 foot level. Just a dusting of the higher peaks. It had all sublimated by yesterday morning.
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Quoting Relix:
Increible. A storm by our side and it has barely rained
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 769
Quoting Ameister12:
Very impressive.

Wow. Leave for a few weeks and see what happens? O_o
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Rafael - Reminds me of that old song "Walk on By"

Oh well now it moves on. TG
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10N 35W COULD BE 99L IN A FEW DAYS ???
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654. adb42
I don't immediately a mention of tropical cyclone Anais, which has blown up into a 95 knots hurricane over the southern Indian Ocean since Friday. It is the earliest TC of this intensity over this basin ever, according to RSMC La Reunion in its 1300Z update. The storm will now weaken over marginal SSTs and increasing shear.
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Woah look at that killer trough over the eastern U.S
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Winds will be bumped up to 50 or 55kts.
If you check the San Juan Radar doppler , is obvious that the COC is closing up with a band of rain wrapping around it, also it seems that is moving , or maybe just a jog, due west...
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 769
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. It develops from the monsoon trough.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Quoting LargoFl:
on Mars, they try to explain(remember mars DID have oceans etc)..they think Mars got hit with a huge asteriod, the clouds of dust and the eruption of whatever volcano's it had back then, completly blocked out the suns rays for a very very long time..the water what there was,they think went underground..maybe..and without water..the planet evolved into what we see now..a planet without any atmosphere......now with global warming, our planet little by little gets warmer..the upper atmosphere get cloudier and cloudier...be careful folks in the denials..I myself dont put much stock in all this..its all guesswork BUT..if..even the smallest part of what they claim will happen in the future generations to come..does come...we humans..are in a wolrd of trouble...and maybe..thats why governments are so anxious to explore space...maybe they know..someday we..may have to leave this earth to a new world?....why else would they be spending soooo much money on exploration?..something just to think about on those days when there's nothing to do lol...
Agree, there is most to it that what it seems....and this vehicle we call earth is limited...
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 769
Quoting washingtonian115:
I think the future storm the GFS is predicting probably comes from that wave in the eastern Atlantic.I'm not sure...

It does not actually, that wave isn't developed by the models. As TA said, it develops from the monsoon trough.


Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
Quoting washingtonian115:
I think the future storm the GFS is predicting probably comes from that wave in the eastern Atlantic.I'm not sure...


GFS has been flip flopping back and forth about development 8-10 days out in the Western Carribean or Southern GOM.
One things for sure, moisture should be on the increase in the western Carribean in about a week or so.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Good morning.

Also,we have to see if other models begin to join GFS on this,especially the ECMWF. GFS has been the stellar model this season after the May upgrade and that alone is a plus for what is showing in the SW/Western Caribbean in terms of being reliable.

The ECMWF has been horrible this year.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Is this what global warming looks like? Over 2000 new low temperature records set in October

Link


Usually only record warm temperatures get noticed.

But everyone will quickly point out that the overall global temperature averages have been on the rise.
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I think the future storm the GFS is predicting probably comes from that wave in the eastern Atlantic.I'm not sure...
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Good morning everyone.

I see Rafael is looking better and that recon is finding him stronger. The GFS continues to strengthen him as he heads toward and past Bermuda. I think he could become extra-tropical earlier than the NHC. I also see the 6z run, yet again, had development in the Caribbean. The season is a long way from being over. This morning is a warm, humid, and wet one. My rain gauge recorded .71" in the past 24hrs with more rain to come, this helps with the drought. I am working on a blog and will have it finished in am hour or two.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 123 Comments: 7886
Rafael has deepened to 998mb per recon.
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on Mars, they try to explain(remember mars DID have oceans etc)..they think Mars got hit with a huge asteriod, the clouds of dust and the eruption of whatever volcano's it had back then, completly blocked out the suns rays for a very very long time..the water what there was,they think went underground..maybe..and without water..the planet evolved into what we see now..a planet without any atmosphere......now with global warming, our planet little by little gets warmer..the upper atmosphere get cloudier and cloudier...be careful folks in the denials..I myself dont put much stock in all this..its all guesswork BUT..if..even the smallest part of what they claim will happen in the future generations to come..does come...we humans..are in a wolrd of trouble...and maybe..thats why governments are so anxious to explore space...maybe they know..someday we..may have to leave this earth to a new world?....why else would they be spending soooo much money on exploration?..something just to think about on those days when there's nothing to do lol...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33344
Winds will be bumped up to 50 or 55kts.
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640. Relix
Increible. A storm by our side and it has barely rained
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639. SLU
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 14th day of the month at 13:20Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)

Storm Number & Year: 17L in 2012

Storm Name: Rafael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 4

Observation Number: 02
A. Time of Center Fix: 14th day of the month at 13:00:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°47'N 64°01'W (19.7833N 64.0167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 164 miles (264 km) to the NE (55°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 673m (2,208ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 67 nautical miles (77 statute miles) to the SE (141°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 202° at 38kts (From the SSW at ~ 43.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 129 nautical miles (148 statute miles) to the SE (138°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 810m (2,657ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 813m (2,667ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the northwest quadrant at 13:08:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the northwest quadrant at 13:08:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb
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Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning

The system the GFS develops starts out as a low pressure North of Panama on the 25th October, just 11 days out. While this is still long range, the GFS has been quite good at the 10 day mark and in as we have seen several times before.

It will be interesting to see if the model persists with this feature.


Good morning.

Also,we have to see if other models begin to join GFS on this,especially the ECMWF. GFS has been the stellar model this season after the May upgrade and that alone is a plus for what is showing in the SW/Western Caribbean in terms of being reliable.
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637. SLU
Semi-closed "eyewall" visible on San Juan radar. 60mph storm a good bet now.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Is this what global warming looks like? Over 2000 new low temperature records set in October

Link
i think someone said with global warming comes hotter summers, more severe storms both summer and winter and in winter, colder temps...we'll see if he was right in the years to come, remember these changes come..over many many years, maybe even lifetimes to come..we'll see...maybe
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33344
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
06z GFS continues with a West Caribbean hurricane.



Good morning

The system the GFS develops starts out as a low pressure North of Panama on the 25th October, just 11 days out. While this is still long range, the GFS has been quite good at the 10 day mark and in as we have seen several times before.

It will be interesting to see if the model persists with this feature.
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Derived from NHC_ATCF data for TropicalStormRaphael @ 14Oct.12pmGMT

NGD-Anegada :: AXA-Anguilla :: SXM-SintMaarten :: SAB-Saba
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Cool!:)
Quoting icmoore:


Cool, change can be a good thing! We lived in Melrose for about 25 years and moved to Madeira Beach last Dec. The only other place I lived before then was Jacksonville.
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Is this what global warming looks like? Over 2000 new low temperature records set in October

Link
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Rafael

I must say Rafael has to be one of the oddest storms of all time.
I live on St John US Virgin Islands and have been closely monitoring Rafael. Last night it was about 60 miles East of us yet we did not have any wind or rain, that is still true as on posting this at 9:00 am - 10-14-14.
We are just now starting to get Northerly winds of 14 mph but thats about all
The system is at 19.5N and 63.8W My Lat is 18.21 and Long is 64.48
If we did not have the technology to watch this system we would not have even known it was there !

I am not complaining. I have seen my share of Storms and feel quite lucky to have dodged this one !
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... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for all the U.S. Virgin Islands
and Puerto Rico... including Vieques and Culebra.

* Through this evening

* bands of showers and thunderstorms associated with Tropical
Storm Rafael will continue to affect Puerto Rico... Culebra...
Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands today. These bands of
showers and thunderstorms will increase this morning through
this evening... as Tropical Storm Rafael moves to the northeast
of the local islands. The bulk of the rain is expected to remain
to the east of the center... mainly across the Atlantic coastal
waters. However... outer rain bands of Rafael will move
occasionally across the the northern and eastern sections of
Puerto Rico as well as across Vieques... Culebra and the U.S.
Virgin Islands today... producing periods of heavy rain and gusty
winds. The focus of the rain will change late today... as Rafael
moves northeast of the area and the winds shift to the
southwest... resulting in showers and thunderstorms clustering
across portions of southern Puerto Rico. Rainfall amounts of 1
to 3 inches are likely across parts of the local islands through
this evening. For those reasons the Flash Flood Watch continues
in effect for all of Puerto Rico... Vieques... Culebra and for
the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions are favorable for heavy
rain across the watch area... which may lead to flooding. If you are
in the watch area... check your preparedness requirements...
especially if you have interests along area rivers. Keep informed...
and be ready for quick action if flooding is observed or if a Flash
Flood Warning is issued.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33344
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33344
Nam at 81 hours..............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33344
GFS at 60 hours...............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33344
Quoting LargoFl:
hmmm would that be paul crossing over?

No. It develops from the monsoon trough.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30251
no, guess no crossover for paul............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33344
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
06z GFS continues with a West Caribbean hurricane.

hmmm would that be paul crossing over?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33344
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
We lived in Wellington, FL for 18 years and we move to Loxahatchee in Sep!:)


Cool, change can be a good thing! We lived in Melrose for about 25 years and moved to Madeira Beach last Dec. The only other place I lived before then was Jacksonville.
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Good morning. In case you'd forgotten, Typhoon Prapiroon is still active in the West Pacific... It's been struggling along as a ragged looking Cat 1 and is going to be recurving a little ways south of Japan in a few days.



Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7295
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33344
06z GFS continues with a West Caribbean hurricane.

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33344
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
0900 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...
BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...SABA...
ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTIN...AND ST. MARTIN

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAFAEL....AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 63.8W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 63.8W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 63.6W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.7N 64.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 22.5N 65.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 24.1N 66.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.1N 65.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 36.2N 60.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 46.1N 52.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 50.4N 44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 63.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33344
they still think its going to a hurricane later on....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33344
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning. A few showers are moving from the NW into the North Coast of PR this morning as Rafael is to our NE moving away.
good morning, any troubles with flooding there?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33344
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33344
Good morning. A few showers are moving from the NW into the North Coast of PR this morning as Rafael is to our NE moving away.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.