Tropical Storm Rafael drenching the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:15 PM GMT on October 13, 2012

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Tropical Storm Rafael formed late yesterday afternoon over the Lesser Antilles Islands, and is bringing gusty winds and very heavy rains to the islands today. Two-day rainfall amounts of 1 - 3" have been common over the Leeward Islands from Rafael, but the winds have stayed below tropical storm-force so far. Here are some of the peak gusts from Rafael as of noon EDT on Saturday:

Antigua: 37 mph
Martinique: 28 mph
St. Lucia: 39 mph
St. Martin: 26 mph

Satellite loops and radar loops show that Rafael has a large area of heavy thunderstorms to the east and southeast of the center. These thunderstorms are poorly organized, but were beginning to show a more organized spiral banding look late this morning. An upper-level low centered a few hundred miles south of the eastern Dominican Republic is pumping dry air into the west side of Rafael, and is creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear.


Figure 1. Radar image out of Martinique from 11:45 am EDT Saturday, October 13, 2012 showed a large area of heavy rain over nearly the entire Lesser Antilles Island chain due to Tropical Storm Rafael. Image credit: Meteo France.

Forecast for Rafael
The shear has dropped since Friday, and is is expected to remain in the moderate range through Monday, which should allow for some slow intensification of Rafael over the next few days. Heavy rains will continue over the entire Lesser Antilles Island chain, plus the Virgin Islands, today through Sunday. Puerto Rico can expect heavy rains on Sunday, but the dry air on the west side of Rafael should keep the Dominican Republic from seeing heavy rains. Rafael's strongest winds will be to the right of the center, and islands of Barbuda, Antigua, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Barthelemy, St. Eustatis, Anguilla, St. Martin, and Saba may see sustained winds as high as 45 mph Saturday night through Sunday as the strongest bands of Rafael move through. The only island at risk of seeing hurricane-force winds from Rafael is Bermuda. The 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 3% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds on Tuesday, and a 27% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds.

Rafael's place in history
Rafael is the seventeenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, putting this year in eighth place for busiest Atlantic season since record keeping began in 1851. Here are the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record:

2005 (28 named storms)
1933 (20 named storms, according to a new re-analysis)
1887 (19 named storms)
2010 (19 named storms)
2011 (19 named storms)
1995 (19 named storms)
1969 (18 named storms)
2012 (17 named storms)

There are two weak and short-lived storms from 2012 that stayed far out sea, and would likely have gone unnoticed in the pre-satellite era (before 1960): Tropical Storm Joyce and Tropical Storm Oscar. And while this season has been very busy for total number of named storms, we've had a below-average number of major hurricanes (just Hurricane Michael), and the total destructive power of the 2012 hurricane season as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is only about 20% above average. See our newly-launched Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) page for a storm-by-storm breakdown of this years ACE, plus historical ACE stats for each ocean basin. Thanks go to Angela Fritz for putting this together!


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Patty taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday, October 12, 2012. At the time, Patty had top winds of 40 mph. High wind shear had exposed the lower-level circulation to view. Late on Saturday morning, wind shear had ripped Patty apart and the storm was declared dead. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Very close to Puerto Rico and Vieques.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
no more Patty.................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
Open question to those in the know. Is it over for fl and the gulf of mexico?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see we have Rafeal.Is it a possibility we get 19 named storms?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
Quoting wxchaser97:

Speaking of Puerto Ricans, where is WeathernerdPR?

Somewhere.
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Quoting LargoFl:
yes if i was there I'd be hurrying to prep for the storm too..tropical storm warnings now up for there..

they are shopping! coronas,bacardi etc!
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000
WTNT82 KNHC 131749
TCVAT2

RAFAEL WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
200 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

.TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL

PRZ012-013-VIZ001-002-132100-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1017.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
200 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

VIEQUES 18.12N 65.43W
CULEBRA 18.32N 65.28W
ST-THOMAS-AND-ST-JOHN 18.33N 64.85W
ST-CROIX 17.74N 64.73W

$$

PRZ001-002-003-004-005-006-007-008-009-010-011-13 2100-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.A.1017.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
200 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

PUERTO-RICO 18.22N 66.44W

$$

ATTN...WFO...SJU...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
VIZ001-002-140015-
/O.CON.TJSJ.TR.W.1017.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
1214 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT
IF FLOODING RAINS OCCUR.

BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WITH RAINFALL HEAVY AT TIMES. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLOODING OF GUTS
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
Quoting Skyepony:
Dvorak #s that come out every 1/2 hour on Rafael.

Largo~ I think you're right about the ones that usually post here. They are getting ready.
yes if i was there I'd be hurrying to prep for the storm too..tropical storm warnings now up for there..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
Quoting wxchaser97:

Speaking of Puerto Ricans, where is WeathernerdPR?

He dissapeared :O
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HuracanTaino:
I'm one of them , a regular here, but the majority does,, only 10 % of the island have a general knowlegge of English. I'm not implying anything,,just explainning why,, because imagine is this storm was threatenig, Florida, or the east,coast,,,the numbers here will increase,, dramatically.

true
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
103. Skyepony (Mod)
Dvorak #s that come out every 1/2 hour on Rafael.

Largo~ I think you're right about the ones that usually post here. They are getting ready.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1214 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AS RAFAEL
MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...

.NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS...ST CROIX.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL
WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL PUERTO RICO.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE
WATER ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS
THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.9N...LONGITUDE 64.1W. THIS WAS ABOUT 210 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PR...OR ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
SAINT CROIX VI. STORM MOTION WAS NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RAFAEL WILL BE
MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. RAIN AND SQUALLS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA TODAY AND THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...CONTINUE WITH YOUR PREPARATIONS AND
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY
FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AROUND 330 PM AST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
Quoting Doppler22:

Not everyone in Puerto Rico speaks spanish... and Im pretty sure there are a few on here from Puerto Rico... I remember hearing from them b4

Speaking of Puerto Ricans, where is WeathernerdPR?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7942
100. Skyepony (Mod)
Dropsonde to the COC of Rafael..

Date: Near the closest hour of 18Z on the 13th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb
Coordinates: 16.9N 63.4W
Location: 204 miles (328 km) to the ESE (121°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Marsden Square: 043 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1004mb (29.65 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 24.8°C (76.6°F) 280° (from the W) 2 knots (2 mph)
1000mb 38m (125 ft) 27.2°C (81.0°F) 24.9°C (76.8°F) 350° (from the N) 1 knots (1 mph)
925mb 725m (2,379 ft) 22.4°C (72.3°F) 19.8°C (67.6°F) 175° (from the S) 2 knots (2 mph)
850mb 1,460m (4,790 ft) 18.6°C (65.5°F) 17.2°C (63.0°F) 335° (from the NNW) 3 knots (3 mph)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
Quoting luigi18:

I think is not a language issue i think they not to aware of this good site!
..we have a few on here from time to time, my guess is they are busy hunkering down for the storm coming thru their area this weekend.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
Quoting Doppler22:

Not everyone in Puerto Rico speaks spanish... and Im pretty sure there are a few on here from Puerto Rico... I remember hearing from them b4
I'm one of them , a regular here, but the majority does,, only 10 % of the island have a general knowlegge of English. I'm not implying anything,,just explainning why,, because imagine is this storm was threatenig, Florida, or the east,coast,,,the numbers here will increase,, dramatically.
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 861
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Not a threat to Florida and the east coast,,majority of the bloggers here are from those area, the English language Antilles only a few people are aware of this blog, and the most populated island which is Puerto Rico with 4 million, , speak Spanish, That explains the low number of bloggers here...

I think is not a language issue i think they not to aware of this good site!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
94. Skyepony (Mod)
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 13th day of the month at 18:05Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Storm Number & Year: 17L in 2012
Storm Name: Rafael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 17:42:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°53'N 63°25'W (16.8833N 63.4167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 204 miles (328 km) to the ESE (121°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,476m (4,843ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 27kts (~ 31.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 94 nautical miles (108 statute miles) to the NE (37°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 142° at 23kts (From the SE at ~ 26.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 96 nautical miles (110 statute miles) to the NE (37°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,519m (4,984ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 23kts (~ 26.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 17:11:30Z
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Beautiful day across Florida. This is the first low humidity weekend in Southwest Fl. since May/early June.


Oh even before that.....maybe since early April. This morning here in Miami my temp gauge said a nice 71º ! I feel like celebrating !!!!!

Any long range forcasts showing So Fla with some nice 50's anytime soon ?
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Not a threat to Florida and the east coast,,majority of the bloggers here are from those area, the English language Antilles only a few people are aware of this blog, and the most populated island which is Puerto Rico with 4 million, , speak Spanish, That explains the low number of bloggers here...

Not everyone in Puerto Rico speaks spanish... and Im pretty sure there are a few on here from Puerto Rico... I remember hearing from them b4
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion


000
AXNT20 KNHC 131801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL IS CENTERED NEAR 16.5N 63.9W AT 13/1800
UTC OR ABOUT 87 NM SE OF ST. CROIX MOVING N AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC
AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC. AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS ENHANCING THE DEEP CONVECTION AND DRAWING THE
CONVECTION E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 60W-64W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 59W-60W AND
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 15N57W 19N61W TO 19N64W INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY WAS DOWNGRADED AT 13/1500 UTC TO
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE REMNANTS OF PATTY IS CENTERED NEAR
24.8N 72.6W AT 13/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 191 NM E-NE OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS MOVING W-SW AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1010 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
35 KT. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER. THE AREA IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 26N70W TO
24N74W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N30W TO
12N33W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY AND AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 29W-34W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 15N30W TO
19N26W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N16W TO 12N20W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS S OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N32W CONTINUING ALONG 10N36W TO 10N56W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 14N25W ACROSS THE ITCZ TO 4N33W...
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 34W-54W...AND WITHIN 180 NM
S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 38W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON W OF 86W
EXTENDING FROM ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE GULF NEAR TAMPICO TO OVER
THE N GULF COAST NEAR ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI. AN UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E OF 86W WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
IN THE W ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN VERACRUZ LAGUNA
MORALES. THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS BUILT OVER THE GULF ANCHORED OVER
PENNSYLVANIA WITH DRY STABLE UPPER AIR DOMINATING MOST OF THE
GULF. THUS...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT E ON MON AND TUE.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL IN
THE E CARIBBEAN...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE NARROW UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO E HONDURAS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 79W-86W TO INLAND
OVER HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM OVER JAMAICA TO INLAND ACROSS CUBA
BETWEEN 74W-78W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN
FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO S
NICARAGUA COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. THIS UPPER RIDGE
IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75/90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN
FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W ALONG 10N80W THEN ACROSS COSTA RICA
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION NEAR 10N83W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN
75W-82W. THIS IS LEAVING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON. T.S. RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NNW ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN TODAY THEN ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WHILE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING. STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER E CONUS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE REMNANTS OF PATTY REMAINS NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS
THIS AFTERNOON...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE
W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 70W THEN NARROWS AS IT CROSSES CUBA INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N63W TO
28N69W AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FROM OVER THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS TO CUBA BETWEEN 72W-79W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E
ATLC CENTERED NEAR 21N36W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 34W-38W AND ENHANCING THE
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC BASIN N OF THE TROPICS IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
35N37W. AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM
13N59W N ALONG 23N57W TO 30N56W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-26N
BETWEEN 54W-67W AND WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 12N52W TO
18N57W. T.S. RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WHILE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING...
REACHING NEAR 19.2N 65.2W EARLY SUN...THEN CONTINUE NNW AND
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 60 KT...REACHING 22.6N 67.0W EARLY
MON...THEN MOVE NORTHWARD AND EXIT THE REGION MON AND TUE.
REMNANTS OF PATTY WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW



Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
89. Skyepony (Mod)
Recon in Rafael..looks like maybe a fix~ 1006.3 mb
(~ 29.72 inHg) 16.883N 63.400W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Rafael showing signs of strengthening.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1054 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022- MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-140300-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY -VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-M CCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIG G-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCL EAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION...
MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO...
CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNE ETOWN...
JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...C AIRO...
MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE...
EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLI NTON...
BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...MAYFIELD...SMITH LAND...BENTON...
MURRAY...MARION...EDDYVILLE...CADIZ...PRINCETON.. .MORGANFIELD...
DIXON...MADISONVILLE...HOPKINSVILLE...HENDERSON.. .OWENSBORO...
CALHOUN...GREENVILLE...ELKTON...PERRYVILLE...MARB LE HILL...
CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...
BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID
1054 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...

STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST TOWARD THE REGION. WIND
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 35
TO 40 MPH RANGE. DRIVERS OF TRACTOR TRAILERS AND OTHER HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE CAUTION ON SUNDAY.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
Quoting tatoprweather:
It's Saturday and for many season is over. Plus in the mainland today's attention is college football + playoff baseball.
Not a threat to Florida and the east coast,,majority of the bloggers here are from those area, the English language Antilles only a few people are aware of this blog, and the most populated island which is Puerto Rico with 4 million, , speak Spanish, That explains the low number of bloggers here...
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 861
Please pay attention to your local warnings folks...........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
WOUS64 KWNS 131758
WOU1

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 661
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

TORNADO WATCH 661 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

OKC003-011-015-017-027-031-033-039-043-047-049-051 -053-055-065-
067-071-073-075-083-087-093-103-109-137-141-149-15 1-140200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0661.121013T1800Z-121014T0200Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA BLAINE CADDO
CANADIAN CLEVELAND COMANCHE
COTTON CUSTER DEWEY
GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY
GRANT GREER JACKSON
JEFFERSON KAY KINGFISHER
KIOWA LOGAN MAJOR
MCCLAIN NOBLE OKLAHOMA
STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA
WOODS


TXC009-023-059-077-133-151-155-197-207-237-253-269 -275-337-353-
363-417-429-433-441-447-485-487-503-140200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0661.121013T1800Z-121014T0200Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARCHER BAYLOR CALLAHAN
CLAY EASTLAND FISHER
FOARD HARDEMAN HASKELL
JACK JONES KING
KNOX MONTAGUE NOLAN
PALO PINTO SHACKELFORD STEPHENS
STONEWALL TAYLOR THROCKMORTON
WICHITA WILBARGER YOUNG
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Very well defined microwave eye on Anais:



2012OCT13 173000 3.8 983.4/ +4.2 / 61.0 3.5 3.9 6.3

"01-20122013" RSMC Dvorak information
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
82. Skyepony (Mod)
Wave forecast. Click pic to loop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Doppler22:

80% chance of one now...
yeah stay safe
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
Canadians had better watch this one next week........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
3hr Surfaced Based Convective Inhibition



cap is breaking slowly.
I expect a tornado watch within the next few hours as this activity continues under sunshine.

80% chance of one now...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Doppler22:
Idk if this was already posted but if u haven't seen this already here we go
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2045
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...BIG COUNTRY OF NWRN TX...SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 131723Z - 132000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE BY ABOUT 19Z ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
NWRN TX. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY BE DISCRETE AND
INTENSIFY THROUGH THE MID/LATE-AFTERNOON WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
LIKELY. PRIMARY INITIAL RISK SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...BUT A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES AND ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
..local met says this one could turn ugly later on..be careful up there folks.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
..models have it going to a cat-1 as it moves north, hope they are right with it staying way off the east coast
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
Idk if this was already posted but if u haven't seen this already here we go
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2045
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...BIG COUNTRY OF NWRN TX...SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 131723Z - 132000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE BY ABOUT 19Z ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
NWRN TX. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY BE DISCRETE AND
INTENSIFY THROUGH THE MID/LATE-AFTERNOON WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
LIKELY. PRIMARY INITIAL RISK SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...BUT A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES AND ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES DUE TO INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS. STRONG RIP
CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP, LEADING TO DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS.

WIND: SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS AND ACROSS
BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS WELL.

WAVES: SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF STREAM WATERS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FLOODING: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG BOTH THE BAY
SIDE AND OCEAN SIDE OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH STRONG RIP CURRENTS LIKELY.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY DUE TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
COMBINED WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS. THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE
GREATEST AT HIGH TIDE, WHICH WILL OCCUR AT AROUND SUNRISE AND
SUNSET ON SUNDAY. THESE ABOVE NORMAL TIDAL LEVELS WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE AT 7 TO 9 FEET INTO SUNDAY AND
ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.HIGH WIND IMPACT...
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH AND BECOME GUSTY
ALONG THE COAST FROM BREVARD COUNTY TO THE TREASURE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS THIS AREA FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
OCEAN CONDITIONS WILL GENERATE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. IN ADDITION...ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS
TODAY WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF AND A SOUTHWARD FLOWING LONGSHORE
CURRENT ALONG THE COAST. THESE CURRENTS CAN BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
DRAG SWIMMERS INTO DEEPER WATER. AVOID SWIMMING NEAR PIERS AND
JETTIES WHERE SEAWARD FLOWING RIP CURRENTS CAN BE STRONG AND
ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS TODAY. THESE WINDS
WILL COMBINE WITH A LONG FETCH TO PRODUCE SEAS UP TO 8 TO 10 FEET
OFFSHORE INTO TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS WHILE GRADUALLY DECREASING SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE ROUGH
SURF AT THE BEACHES. SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED UP TO 8 TO 10
FEET...CONTINUING HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

WEITLICH
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
Quoting pottery:

Thanks.
We are doing good (except for those that lost their possessions yesterday. really sad, that)
yes these tropical storms can really do some damage,flooding wise
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
Quoting LargoFl:
stay safe down there pottery ok

Thanks.
We are doing good (except for those that lost their possessions yesterday. really sad, that)
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
real breezy here by me, worse on the east coast though..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
Quoting pottery:
No rain in Trinidad today.
Some serious flooding in towns in the NorthEast of the island yesterday afternoon.

Still overcast and grey sky around, so I would not be surprised to get more showers.

Total rainfall at my location yesterday afternoon and last night, 4.5".
stay safe down there pottery ok
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
Very well defined microwave eye on Anais:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7781
No rain in Trinidad today.
Some serious flooding in towns in the NorthEast of the island yesterday afternoon.

Still overcast and grey sky around, so I would not be surprised to get more showers.

Total rainfall at my location yesterday afternoon and last night, 4.5".
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38483
Definitely a TD at least right now... I'd expect a renumber around 3:30 with the first advisory at 5EDT.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7781

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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