Tropical Storm Rafael drenching the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:15 PM GMT on October 13, 2012

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Tropical Storm Rafael formed late yesterday afternoon over the Lesser Antilles Islands, and is bringing gusty winds and very heavy rains to the islands today. Two-day rainfall amounts of 1 - 3" have been common over the Leeward Islands from Rafael, but the winds have stayed below tropical storm-force so far. Here are some of the peak gusts from Rafael as of noon EDT on Saturday:

Antigua: 37 mph
Martinique: 28 mph
St. Lucia: 39 mph
St. Martin: 26 mph

Satellite loops and radar loops show that Rafael has a large area of heavy thunderstorms to the east and southeast of the center. These thunderstorms are poorly organized, but were beginning to show a more organized spiral banding look late this morning. An upper-level low centered a few hundred miles south of the eastern Dominican Republic is pumping dry air into the west side of Rafael, and is creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear.


Figure 1. Radar image out of Martinique from 11:45 am EDT Saturday, October 13, 2012 showed a large area of heavy rain over nearly the entire Lesser Antilles Island chain due to Tropical Storm Rafael. Image credit: Meteo France.

Forecast for Rafael
The shear has dropped since Friday, and is is expected to remain in the moderate range through Monday, which should allow for some slow intensification of Rafael over the next few days. Heavy rains will continue over the entire Lesser Antilles Island chain, plus the Virgin Islands, today through Sunday. Puerto Rico can expect heavy rains on Sunday, but the dry air on the west side of Rafael should keep the Dominican Republic from seeing heavy rains. Rafael's strongest winds will be to the right of the center, and islands of Barbuda, Antigua, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Barthelemy, St. Eustatis, Anguilla, St. Martin, and Saba may see sustained winds as high as 45 mph Saturday night through Sunday as the strongest bands of Rafael move through. The only island at risk of seeing hurricane-force winds from Rafael is Bermuda. The 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 3% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds on Tuesday, and a 27% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds.

Rafael's place in history
Rafael is the seventeenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, putting this year in eighth place for busiest Atlantic season since record keeping began in 1851. Here are the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record:

2005 (28 named storms)
1933 (20 named storms, according to a new re-analysis)
1887 (19 named storms)
2010 (19 named storms)
2011 (19 named storms)
1995 (19 named storms)
1969 (18 named storms)
2012 (17 named storms)

There are two weak and short-lived storms from 2012 that stayed far out sea, and would likely have gone unnoticed in the pre-satellite era (before 1960): Tropical Storm Joyce and Tropical Storm Oscar. And while this season has been very busy for total number of named storms, we've had a below-average number of major hurricanes (just Hurricane Michael), and the total destructive power of the 2012 hurricane season as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is only about 20% above average. See our newly-launched Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) page for a storm-by-storm breakdown of this years ACE, plus historical ACE stats for each ocean basin. Thanks go to Angela Fritz for putting this together!


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Patty taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday, October 12, 2012. At the time, Patty had top winds of 40 mph. High wind shear had exposed the lower-level circulation to view. Late on Saturday morning, wind shear had ripped Patty apart and the storm was declared dead. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Derived from NHC_ATCF data for TropicalStormRaphael @ 13Oct.6pmGMT
15.5n63.9w has been re-evaluated&altered
15.6n63.8w-16.7n63.6w are now the most recent positions
Major vector(travel-speed&direction)change away from PuertoRico as of 12pm

AXA-Anguilla :: SXM-SintMaarten :: SAB-Saba
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517
I'm on my laptop now. Looking at recon data, 45 knots is a good initial intensity for Rafael at 5pm EDT.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32690
211. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #71
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
3:00 AM JST October 14 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 21.5N 130.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 22.2N 130.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
48 HRS: 22.7N 130.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
72 HRS: 23.7N 128.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46525
210. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
CYCLONE TROPICAL ANAIS (01-20122013)
22:30 PM RET October 13 2012
==========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Anais (977 hPa) located at 10.5S 67.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 with gusts of 90. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/6HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
20 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
40 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
160 NM radius from the center, extending up to 200 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 250 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 11.9S 65.6E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 13.2S 62.9E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 14.5S 59.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
======================

System has evolved in an eye pattern since 1530 PM UTC. Therefore, the cyclone intensification rate is breaking Dvorak constraints. Last satellite fix suggest that system has slowed down and has tracked southwestward during the past 6 hours.

Environmental conditions are favorable with weak northeasterly upper level wind shear (1200 PM UTC CIMSS data, 020/7kt), and good upper level divergence southward. Currently, heat ocean content is favorable (Sea surface temperature is around 27C).

Until after 36 hours, lower and upper environmental conditions should remain favorable. On and after 36 hours (Monday), system should encounter cooler sea surface temperatures (south of 12S) and is expected to weaken. At the end of the forecast range (on and after Wednesday), upper level wind shear is expected to increase ahead of an upper tropospheric trough and system should keep on weakening rapidly. Available numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement with a regular track west southwestward until J+5. AVNO suggests that the system should recurve southeast ward after J+4.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46525
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Recon has found evidence that would support Rafael being a 60mph tropical storm with a pressure of 1004mb.
Please ,How can I access that information?
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Pressure has dropped to 1003mb in Rafael.
1003.2 mb
(~ 29.62 inHg)

Worth noting the pressures dropped, then rose, then dropped again. That tells me there is some disorganization of the inner core. Absolutely no surprise there, as for some reasons pretty much every tropical cyclone entering east to west in the Eastern Caribbean since Hurricane Felix can't keep an inner core.
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These are the last 3 fixes

16.7N 63.6W 18Z
15.5N 63.9W 12Z
15.4N 63.8W 06Z
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WOCN11 CWTO 131923
Special weather statement updated by Environment Canada at 3:23 PM
EDT Saturday 13 October 2012.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Special weather statement for:
=new= Sarnia - Lambton
=new= London - Middlesex
=new= Halton - Peel
=new= York - Durham
=new= Huron - Perth
=new= Waterloo - Wellington
=new= Dufferin - Innisfil
=new= Saugeen Shores - Kincardine - Southern Bruce County
=new= Hanover - Dundalk - Southern Grey County
=new= Owen Sound - Blue Mountains - Northern Grey County
=new= Barrie - Orillia - Midland
=new= Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
=new= Kingston - Prince Edward
=new= Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
=new= Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
=new= Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
=new= Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
=new= City of Ottawa
=new= Gatineau
=new= Prescott and Russell
=new= Cornwall - Morrisburg
=new= Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
=new= Haliburton
=new= Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
Bruce Peninsula - Sauble Beach - Tobermory
Parry Sound - Muskoka
Algonquin
Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.

Rain and showers tonight, Sunday and Monday with significant
Rainfall amounts for the northern regions.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
A low pressure system over the American Midwest is expected to
intensify and move northeastward to Lake Huron by Sunday afternoon
and to near North Bay by Monday morning. This low pressure system is
expected to tap into warm moist air from the south and to bring
significant rainfall to regions near and north of its track.

A rainfall warning has been issued for regions east of Central Lake
Huron all the way to Algonquin with total rainfall amounts in the 50
to 75 mm range. Most of the rainfall is expected in a 18 to 24 hour
period from this evening to Sunday evening.

Regions further to the south can expect total rainfall amounts in the
20 to 40 mm range.

There is still considerable uncertainty with the intensity and track
of this low. As the expected position and intensity of this low
pressure system changes, rainfall warnings and this special weather
statement will be updated when necessary.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Recon has found evidence that would support Rafael being a 60mph tropical storm with a pressure of 1004mb.

Rain rates were over an inch per hour where the 60mph were found, probably it isn't accurate.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
From what recon's found so far Rafael hasn't strengthened much... all the winds over about 40mph have been found in high rain rate areas so even though they aren't flagged as contaminated they can't be trusted.
Maybe, but also the over all structure of the storm is improving ...winds should also increase as pressure lower..lets see what happens later tonight...
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
From what recon's found so far Rafael hasn't strengthened much... all the winds over about 40mph have been found in high rain rate areas so even though they aren't flagged as contaminated they can't be trusted.

Even ADT says Rafael is a 40mph TS.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax

2.5 / 999.1mb/ 35.0kt

Also latest ATCF has Rafael at 40mph.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
201. JLPR2
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Are you in East PR? Do you think Rafael is moving N,as the say , or NW as it seem by satelite loops? Not sure. by the way you are within the weakness with pressure so low, which may aloud the storm to move your way.


I don't buy the north movement, there is still a west component in there, but the convection is constantly pulling on the circulation, therefore we get adjustments to the east.

Pressure keeps dropping, down to 1007.6mb.

Oh and yes, I'm in East PR, Carolina to be exact.
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200. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
There's a real chance Anais is going to become a major hurricane equivalent within the next 24 hours... this is over a month before the season begins down there. Have we ever had a major in April in the Atlantic?



up to 65 knots tropical cyclone from RSMC Mauritius. The advisory is taking a little longer to release from them though.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46525
Recon has found evidence that would support Rafael being a 60mph tropical storm with a pressure of 1004mb.
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97E is up as Paul on the Navy site:

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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517
Quoting JLPR2:
My barometer is now down to 1007.9mb, pretty low considering Rafael is a 1006mb storm still pretty far away from me.
Are you in East PR? Do you think Rafael is moving N,as the say , or NW as it seem by satelite loops? Not sure. by the way you are within the weakness with pressure so low, which may aloud the storm to move your way.
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The radar in Frederick, OK picked an an excellent day to be down...
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
There's a real chance Anais is going to become a major hurricane equivalent within the next 24 hours... this is over a month before the season begins down there. Have we ever had a major in April in the Atlantic?


Nope, the earliest was in late May. The hurricane was Hurricane Able and she reached cat3 status, Link.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
From what recon's found so far Rafael hasn't strengthened much... all the winds over about 40mph have been found in high rain rate areas so even though they aren't flagged as contaminated they can't be trusted.
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added local traffic cams on my page
with a winter/fall section
and scaled down tropical section
to finish the season
check it out here

Link
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2047
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 131900Z - 132030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON OVER CNTRL KS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WW MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED DURING THE NEXT HR OR
TWO.

DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWS AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SITUATED OVER SWRN KS...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD
FROM THE LOW INTO FAR WRN OK. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE OCCURRING
OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN EJECTING UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. THESE FALLS WILL FAVOR MODEST DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE
LOW AS IT MOVES NEWD TOWARD THE NEB BORDER BY EVENING.
MEANWHILE...CLEARING SKIES ARE ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER
CNTRL KS TO WARM INTO THE MID 70S...WHILE SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
MAINTAINING MID 60S DEWPOINTS. THIS AIRMASS COMBINED WITH MODERATELY
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES/COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT IS AIDING IN
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. STRONG MIDLEVEL SWLYS /50-70 KT/
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ARE ALSO CONTRIBUTING TOWARD EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 60 KT. GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TOWERING
CUMULUS OBSERVED IN LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE CAPE WILL FAVOR LINE SEGMENTS AND A
FEW SUPERCELLS. THE PRIMARY SVR WEATHER THREAT WITH THESE STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL.

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... CENTRAL KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... EASTERN WASHITA COUNTY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA... * UNTIL 245 PM CDT * AT 206 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR OLUSTEE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH. THIS STORM PRODUCE WINDS NEAR 60 MPH IN ALTUS. OTHER SEVERE STORMS WERE LOCATED FROM WARREN TO GOTEBO AND COWDEN.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Hey it is a couple hours without chat, chat adds an hour or 2. At least it all gets done and turned in on time. Speaking of NASCAR the race starts in 4-5 hours and it should be nice, dry, and warm in Charlotte, NC.

I doubt that. :P
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
A final look at PATTY...



Is it windy by you, Geoff? Very constant breeze here all day.
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There's a real chance Anais is going to become a major hurricane equivalent within the next 24 hours... this is over a month before the season begins down there. Have we ever had a major in April in the Atlantic?

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186. JLPR2
My barometer is now down to 1007.9mb, pretty low considering Rafael is a 1006mb storm still pretty far away from me.
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Plenty of strong winds uncontaminated.

190030 1536N 06203W 8430 01534 0085 +127 +124 177051 052 041 018 00
190100 1537N 06204W 8422 01542 0081 +132 +123 173052 053 040 017 00
190130 1539N 06206W 8441 01522 0082 +130 +121 174047 053 038 018 00
190200 1540N 06207W 8424 01538 0081 +130 +120 174049 052 045 029 00
190230 1541N 06208W 8435 01525 0080 +129 +120 168048 054 045 033 00
190300 1543N 06210W 8425 01536 0080 +129 +121 169052 056 047 032 00
190330 1544N 06211W 8448 01517 0084 +129 +121 162041 053 049 036 00
190400 1546N 06213W 8429 01536 0083 +131 +122 166039 040 049 032 00


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Quoting indianrivguy:


nice blobage


Thank you.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

3/4 of the time you're in chat talking about NASCAR, so....

Hey it is a couple hours without chat, chat adds an hour or 2. At least it all gets done and turned in on time. Speaking of NASCAR the race starts in 4-5 hours and it should be nice, dry, and warm in Charlotte, NC.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Hi everyone..since Im always late for things...I found out we have TD16-E now...Patty gone and Rafael still weak..
I ran into a car accident today in the morning..nothing serious
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Sure it can, I have a couple hours of HW.

New severe thunderstorm watch in S Texas and Rafael is definitely looking better. I think a cat1 is a safe bet for peak, north of PR of course.

3/4 of the time you're in chat talking about NASCAR, so....
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32690

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
ALVA OKLAHOMA TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ABILENE TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS FROM NW TX INTO WRN OK...ALONG AND JUST E OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT. A NARROW ZONE OF SURFACE HEATING TO THE W OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION FROM N TX INTO CENTRAL OK...AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG.
DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...AND THE CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE A MIX OF
SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE OF A THREAT LATER AS STORMS POTENTIALLY EVOLVE INTO A
MORE SOLID LINE CLOSER TO I-35 IN OK.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...THOMPSON
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Quoting Grothar:


nice blobage
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going to be an interesting evening in the midwest tonight..
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A final look at PATTY...

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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
146 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

OKC065-131915-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0495.000000T0000Z-121013T1915Z/
JACKSON OK-
146 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM
CDT FOR CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY...

AT 142 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ELDORADO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. ANOTHER SEVERE STORM WAS
LOCATED JUST WEST OF FRIENDSHIP.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALTUS...BLAIR...OLUSTEE...ELDORADO...MARTHA...ALT US AIR FORCE BASE
AND FRIENDSHIP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3451 9970 3451 9967 3454 9967 3481 9934
3467 9909 3442 9947 3445 9977
TIME...MOT...LOC 1842Z 233DEG 36KT 3445 9954

$$
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol well Gro with this image on the blog that your an older gentlemen and then the numbers reminded me so much of that episode and quote.


LOL. It is just a joke, I'm not really that old. This morning, I ran a mile in 5 minute & 12 seconds. (Of course having a spider drop down my back helped the speed a little)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nah it can't be that much.

Sure it can, I have a couple hours of HW.

New severe thunderstorm watch in S Texas and Rafael is definitely looking better. I think a cat1 is a safe bet for peak, north of PR of course.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Ada Monzón CMC‏@CMCtiempo

Zig zag de #Rafael Ahora 2 pm: Lat 16.5°N 63.9°O movt N a 9 mph Vientos 40 mph presion 1006 mb
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1991
83 and Wind SpeedNE 20 G 30 mph
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Time: 18:42:30Z
Coordinates: 15.3333N 62.1333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.0 mb (~ 24.89 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,539 meters (~ 5,049 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1007.0 mb (~ 29.74 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 202° at 46 knots (From the SSW at ~ 52.9 mph)
Air Temp: 16.1°C (~ 61.0°F)
Dew Pt: 12.3°C (~ 54.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 46 knots (~ 52.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 36 knots (~ 41.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 5 mm/hr (~ 0.20 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1991
Quoting alpha992000:
Hey guys,

Greetings from San Juan, Puerto Rico. Long time lurker and occasional poster here. It IS weird to have a named storm and see this blog so quiet, but as already pointed out Rafael appears to be no threat to FL or the Gulf, so it's understandable that the trolls and wishcasters are not out full force yet. I do miss some of the true, well informed posters, though. Where are they? It's a long weekend for many here (yesterday was a holiday) and though people is aware that there's a tropical system near they may not be glued to their TVs and PCs following every move. If you can count my Facebook feed as proof, many are having a beach day, others are in outdoor activities and the rest are more interested in the baseball games for tonight. Oh, and of course we are twenty something days away from elections so every political candidate is out there doing their last minute campaigns. As you can see, Rafael is not the #1 priority for some right now. I dunno, but through the years I've seen more damage in terms of flooding being done by depressions and no named systems than hurricanes, so I try to pay more attention to this type of events, especially when they are so close and with a greater degree of uncertainty than other storms. I hope everybody is prepared here with at least the basics (flashlights, radio, canned food and water for a few days) as the first thing that always goes is power. For the rest, let's hope for the best. The good news is that at least temperature dropped significantly and that's a relief. I'll try to keep you guys posted for as long as there's power or as long as I can get in the car to recharge my phone. Hope you are all enjoying the weekend. Have a good one and thanks for keeping us weather freaks up to date with the latest satellite imagery and Hunters data.
thanks and stay safe down there till it passes, remember dont follow the line..its a huge system
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Max flight level wind: 48 kt
Max SFMR wind: 61 kt (in heavy rain)
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Anais putting on a display in the South Indian Ocean, a pretty impressive first storm



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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

School. Teachers are going all out with their assignments this year.

Nah it can't be that much.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32690

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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