Tropical Storm Rafael drenching the Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:15 PM GMT on October 13, 2012

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Tropical Storm Rafael formed late yesterday afternoon over the Lesser Antilles Islands, and is bringing gusty winds and very heavy rains to the islands today. Two-day rainfall amounts of 1 - 3" have been common over the Leeward Islands from Rafael, but the winds have stayed below tropical storm-force so far. Here are some of the peak gusts from Rafael as of noon EDT on Saturday:

Antigua: 37 mph
Martinique: 28 mph
St. Lucia: 39 mph
St. Martin: 26 mph

Satellite loops and radar loops show that Rafael has a large area of heavy thunderstorms to the east and southeast of the center. These thunderstorms are poorly organized, but were beginning to show a more organized spiral banding look late this morning. An upper-level low centered a few hundred miles south of the eastern Dominican Republic is pumping dry air into the west side of Rafael, and is creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear.


Figure 1. Radar image out of Martinique from 11:45 am EDT Saturday, October 13, 2012 showed a large area of heavy rain over nearly the entire Lesser Antilles Island chain due to Tropical Storm Rafael. Image credit: Meteo France.

Forecast for Rafael
The shear has dropped since Friday, and is is expected to remain in the moderate range through Monday, which should allow for some slow intensification of Rafael over the next few days. Heavy rains will continue over the entire Lesser Antilles Island chain, plus the Virgin Islands, today through Sunday. Puerto Rico can expect heavy rains on Sunday, but the dry air on the west side of Rafael should keep the Dominican Republic from seeing heavy rains. Rafael's strongest winds will be to the right of the center, and islands of Barbuda, Antigua, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Barthelemy, St. Eustatis, Anguilla, St. Martin, and Saba may see sustained winds as high as 45 mph Saturday night through Sunday as the strongest bands of Rafael move through. The only island at risk of seeing hurricane-force winds from Rafael is Bermuda. The 11 am EDT wind probability forecast from NHC gave Bermuda a 3% chance of experiencing hurricane-force winds on Tuesday, and a 27% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds.

Rafael's place in history
Rafael is the seventeenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, putting this year in eighth place for busiest Atlantic season since record keeping began in 1851. Here are the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record:

2005 (28 named storms)
1933 (20 named storms, according to a new re-analysis)
1887 (19 named storms)
2010 (19 named storms)
2011 (19 named storms)
1995 (19 named storms)
1969 (18 named storms)
2012 (17 named storms)

There are two weak and short-lived storms from 2012 that stayed far out sea, and would likely have gone unnoticed in the pre-satellite era (before 1960): Tropical Storm Joyce and Tropical Storm Oscar. And while this season has been very busy for total number of named storms, we've had a below-average number of major hurricanes (just Hurricane Michael), and the total destructive power of the 2012 hurricane season as measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is only about 20% above average. See our newly-launched Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) page for a storm-by-storm breakdown of this years ACE, plus historical ACE stats for each ocean basin. Thanks go to Angela Fritz for putting this together!


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Patty taken at 1:30 pm EDT Friday, October 12, 2012. At the time, Patty had top winds of 40 mph. High wind shear had exposed the lower-level circulation to view. Late on Saturday morning, wind shear had ripped Patty apart and the storm was declared dead. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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My new hurricane model shows Rafael will stall over the epicenter of the >600 tremors over the past 2 months just NW of San Juan
http://wp.me/p26aeb-8w
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TORNADO WARNING
TXC207-132100-
/O.NEW.KSJT.TO.W.0025.121013T2034Z-121013T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
334 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HASKELL COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 332 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS 7 MILES WEST OF LAKE STAMFORD MARINA...OR 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF STAMFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO DANGEROUS TORNADIC WINDS...OTHER HAZARDS INCLUDE...
POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
LAKE STAMFORD MARINA BY 340 PM CDT...
IRBY BY 355 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3300 9948 3295 9965 3296 9978 3308 9988
3341 9948
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 236DEG 34KT 3306 9972

$$
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wooow acrding to twc it is 77 and Mostly cloudy on kitts
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COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
343 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

PUERTO RICO AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WATERS

AMZ710-140815-
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
343 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

.TONIGHT...NORTHEAST WINDS 38 TO 43 KNOTS. GUSTS UP TO 55 KNOTS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 9 FEET. FREQUENT SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUNDAY...WEST NORTHWEST WINDS 42 TO 47 KNOTS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET.
FREQUENT SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS 28 TO 33 KNOTS BECOMING
SOUTHWEST 18 TO 23 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.MONDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 17 TO 22 KNOTS. SEAS 7 TO 9 FEET.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS 14 TO 19 KNOTS. SEAS 6 TO
8 FEET. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
.TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS 13 TO 18 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET.
SCATTERED SHOWERS...THEN ISOLATED SHOWERS.
.WEDNESDAY...EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS.
.THURSDAY...EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 13 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS.

$$
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Rafael is now up to 50mph.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Going to a hurricane folks.................
Tropical Storm RAFAEL Forecast Discussion

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

US Watch/Warning

000
WTNT42 KNHC 132038
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
RAFAEL HAS BEEN REFORMING CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB
AND A PEAK 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 56 KT. BASED ON THAT DATA
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE
CLOUD PATTERN OF RAFAEL CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE...WITH A
LARGE AREA OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS NOTED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER LOCATION AND A LITTLE MORE CURVATURE NOTED TO THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT STEADY STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 2 TO
3 DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NHC FORECAST IS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE OBSERVED
STRENGTHENING...AND IS NOW CLOSE TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS
THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE MARKEDLY AS RAFAEL INTERACTS WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL
WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WHICH
SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY DAY 5.

WITH THE RECENT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD REFORMATION OF THE CENTER THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 015/10 IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND
ADDITIONAL JUMPS IN THE CENTER LOCATION ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES. WHILE THE OVERALL TRACK
FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...THE RELOCATION OF THE CENTER
HAS RESULTED IN AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE NHC TRACK FORECAST BY
ABOUT A DEGREE FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT RAFAEL WILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE FIRST 12
HOURS OR SO AND THEN TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD AS
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE CONTINUES TO BE
LARGE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...DUE TO DETAIL
DIFFERENCES IN HOW RAFAEL INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. GIVEN THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY...THE
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE NHC TRACK AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 WAS AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TOWARD THE NEW MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NHC
FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE EVELOPE AND LIES
BETWEEN THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SINCE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS
EXTEND WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 17.3N 63.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 18.7N 63.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 20.9N 64.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 22.6N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 24.4N 66.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 31.5N 64.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 43.0N 57.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 50.5N 48.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone else see some rotation on the storm near Munday/Seymour, Texas area??? Not currently tornado warned
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
RAFAEL HAS BEEN REFORMING CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB
AND A PEAK 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 56 KT. BASED ON THAT DATA
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE
CLOUD PATTERN OF RAFAEL CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE...WITH A
LARGE AREA OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS NOTED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER LOCATION AND A LITTLE MORE CURVATURE NOTED TO THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT STEADY STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 2 TO
3 DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NHC FORECAST IS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE OBSERVED
STRENGTHENING...AND IS NOW CLOSE TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS
THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE MARKEDLY AS RAFAEL INTERACTS WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL
WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WHICH
SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY DAY 5.

WITH THE RECENT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD REFORMATION OF THE CENTER THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 015/10 IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND
ADDITIONAL JUMPS IN THE CENTER LOCATION ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES. WHILE THE OVERALL TRACK
FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...THE RELOCATION OF THE CENTER
HAS RESULTED IN AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE NHC TRACK FORECAST BY
ABOUT A DEGREE FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT RAFAEL WILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE FIRST 12
HOURS OR SO AND THEN TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD AS
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE CONTINUES TO BE
LARGE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...DUE TO DETAIL
DIFFERENCES IN HOW RAFAEL INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. GIVEN THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY...THE
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE NHC TRACK AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 WAS AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TOWARD THE NEW MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NHC
FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE EVELOPE AND LIES
BETWEEN THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SINCE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS
EXTEND WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 17.3N 63.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 18.7N 63.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 20.9N 64.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 22.6N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 24.4N 66.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 31.5N 64.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 43.0N 57.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 50.5N 48.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Looks like some good rotation with the tornadic warned storm right now...
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

...RAFAEL STRENGTHENS AS HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 63.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ESE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORMS WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 113.6W
ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

...RAFAEL STRENGTHENS AS HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 63.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ESE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 PM PDT SAT OCT 13 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAS ACQUIRED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND SUFFICIENT
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT THAT VALUE...MAKING THE SYSTEM
TROPICAL STORM PAUL. THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AROUND 1630 UTC...WHICH SHOWED RELIABLE WIND
VECTORS AROUND 30 KT.

PAUL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AS TROUGHING BECOMES BETTER
ESTABLISHED NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA PENNISULA DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE PAUL TO SLOW
DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD ON SUNDAY AND THEN NORTHWARD BY MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE
CHANGE IN HEADING...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN WHERE THE
TURN TAKES PLACE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
CONSENSUS AIDS...TVCE AND TV15...BRINGING THE SYSTEM NEAR THE BAJA
PENNISULA IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.

THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR PAUL
TO GAIN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER 48
HOURS...HOWEVER...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
AND WATERS COOL TO MARGINAL LEVELS ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK. THESE
FACTORS SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND...AND MOST OF THE MODELS
SHOW PAUL LOSING STRENGTH ON ITS APPROACH TO BAJA. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
MODELS...AND IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL AIDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 14.0N 113.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 14.1N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 14.9N 115.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 16.4N 115.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 18.2N 115.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 23.0N 114.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 26.5N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 28.5N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Storm in Texas just went Tornado Warned.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
334 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HASKELL COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 332 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS 7 MILES WEST OF LAKE STAMFORD MARINA...OR 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF STAMFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO DANGEROUS TORNADIC WINDS...OTHER HAZARDS INCLUDE...
POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
LAKE STAMFORD MARINA BY 340 PM CDT...
IRBY BY 355 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3300 9948 3295 9965 3296 9978 3308 9988
3341 9948
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 236DEG 34KT 3306 9972

$$
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4948
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
334 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HASKELL COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 332 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS 7 MILES WEST OF LAKE STAMFORD MARINA...OR 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF STAMFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO DANGEROUS TORNADIC WINDS...OTHER HAZARDS INCLUDE...
POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING.

* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
LAKE STAMFORD MARINA BY 340 PM CDT...
IRBY BY 355 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3300 9948 3295 9965 3296 9978 3308 9988
3341 9948
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 236DEG 34KT 3306 9972

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
OKC015-017-051-132115-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0500.121013T2027Z-121013T2115Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
327 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CANADIAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
NORTHERN GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 324 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES
SOUTH OF FORT COBB...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHICKASHA...ANADARKO...TUTTLE...MINCO...FORT COBB...VERDEN...
AMBER...GRACEMONT...POCASSET...ALBERT...MIDDLEBERG ...
BRIDGE CREEK...LAKE CHICKASHA...TABLER AND STECKER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3526 9841 3540 9768 3507 9767 3490 9857
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 240DEG 49KT 3503 9843

$$
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Is the center of Rafeal in that big blow up that has just occured?
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Quoting islandblow:
I am on St.Kitts now and it seems like the storm is developing just overhead.Heavy rain,thunder and strong winds. Sea getting higher on the north east coast where I am.Flooding beginning in low lying areas.
kind of is. Do you have an istrument for measuring wind speed?
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Quoting AztecCe:
Big blow up over Saint Kitts


Cam in St Barts shows the heavy rain in that area.

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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I wonder about ADT sometimes...



Do they just throw virtual darts at these things to get the center?

There's actually a long process for determining the scene type (which includes locating the center) and its associated T-number.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
Meanwhile, in the eastern Pacific...

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
I am on St.Kitts now and it seems like the storm is developing just overhead.Heavy rain,thunder and strong winds. Sea getting higher on the north east coast where I am.Flooding beginning in low lying areas.
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Post 233....It looks like Raphael ran face first into a brick wall.
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Big blow up over Saint Kitts
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Severe thunderstorms are about to pass through Oklahoma City... no signs of rotation, looks like non-tornadic winds and hail will be the biggest threats.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Pressures are coming down, so he is organizing, but I don't see any wind data that supports more than 45mph at 5PM.


Flight level winds on the VDM were 65mph, so that supports at the surface around 50mph. I think 50mph is a good bet, as you said though the higher SFMR readings were more than likely rain contaminated.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Are the models picking up on this?
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I wonder about ADT sometimes...



Do they just throw virtual darts at these things to get the center?
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Pressures are coming down, so he is organizing, but I don't see any wind data that supports more than 45mph at 5PM.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

That's one heck of a wave.
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Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
La Reunion has just upgraded Anais to a tropical cyclone, which is a marginal Category One hurricane equivalent, while the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has placed it at 90 knots, a mid-grade Category Two hurricane equivalent. Given its presentation on satellite imagery, it appears the JTWC estimate is closer, and La Reunion should declare it an intense tropical cyclone (Cat. 2-4 hurricane equivalent) tonight.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31895
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
I'd say 50mph at 5PM.

Nice burst near the center (where I think it is, anyways).
I talked about a center relocation ESE earlier this afternoon...where the deep convection is.

Puerto Rico today is business as usual except for the political campaigns so I really hope this thing goes east of us.
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Recon now finding pressures ~1002.8 mb. So gradual intensification is occurring.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53544
220. SLU
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1002.8 mb (~ 29.61 inHg)
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Sandy hasn't even formed yet..and if it ever does I can see the spongebob jokes being used.
I would be the first one has been waiting for her ;)
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4232
I'd say 50mph at 5PM.

Nice burst near the center (where I think it is, anyways).
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Sandy hasn't even formed yet..and if it ever does I can see the spongebob jokes being used.
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Forget Rafael....Sandy is the BOMB!!! When is she going to be classified? Best CV of the season.
Member Since: June 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 127
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

3/4 of the time you're in chat talking about NASCAR, so....
I have quarters exams next week and I am in here so yeah there can be and I need to give my us history project Monday.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4232
Derived from NHC_ATCF data for TropicalStormRaphael @ 13Oct.6pmGMT
15.5n63.9w has been re-evaluated&altered
15.6n63.8w-16.7n63.6w are now the most recent positions
Major vector(travel-speed&direction)change away from PuertoRico as of 12pm

AXA-Anguilla :: SXM-SintMaarten :: SAB-Saba
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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