Patty little threat to the Bahamas; 98L close to tropical storm status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on October 12, 2012

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Tropical Storm Patty formed late yesterday afternoon just east of the Central Bahama Islands. Patty is the sixteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, putting this year in a tie for eighth place for busiest Atlantic season since record keeping began in 1851. Patty isn't going to be around for long, though. Satellite loops show a very sickly storm, with the low-level circulation center exposed to view, and the storm's heavy thunderstorm all pushed to the northeast side of the center of circulation due to strong upper-level winds out of the southwest creating a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. An approaching cold front is dumping dry, stable air into Patty, and the cold front and high shear will likely destroy the storm by Saturday evening. Patty will likely have a minimal impact on the Bahamas. The storm has brought a few sporadic heavy rain showers to the Southeast Bahama Islands this morning, and this activity may continue through Saturday morning. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on its way to Patty, and will be there early this afternoon.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression 16 taken at 11:16 am EDT Thursday, October 11, 2012. At the time, TD 16 had 35 mph winds, and was named Tropical Storm Patty six hours later. Image credit: NASA.

98L bringing heavy rain, high winds to Lesser Antilles
A strong tropical wave (Invest 98L) is bringing tropical-storm force winds and heavy rains to the Lesser Antilles this morning. At 9 am local time, winds at Barbados's Grantly Adams Airport hit a sustained 39 mph, which is minimum tropical storm-force. Wind gusts as high as 47 mph were observed on Barbados this morning. A pass from the Windsat satellite at 12:38 am EDT found that 98L had top winds of 35 mph near 17°N latitude, a few hundred miles east of Antigua. The storm is headed north-northwest to northwest at about 10 - 15 mph, and will bring tropical storm conditions to much of the Lesser Antilles Islands today and Saturday. The disturbance has plenty of spin and a large amount of moderately well-organized heavy thunderstorms, as seen on Martinique radar and satellite loops. An elongated, poorly-defined surface circulation is apparent just west of the central Lesser Antilles Islands, but satellite imagery and airport observations from the islands do not show the well-defined closed surface circulation needed for 98L to be classified as a tropical storm. An upper-level low centered a few hundred miles south of the eastern Dominican Republic is pumping dry air into the west side of 98L, and creating a high 15 - 30 knots of wind shear. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 98L this afternoon.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L over the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Forecast for 98L
Wind shear is predicted to diminish to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, tonight through Saturday night. Given 98L's current degree of organization, the forecast drop in wind shear, and a high degree of model support for development, NHC's 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook forecast of an 80% chance of development by Sunday morning for 98L looks reasonable. I expect 98L to be upgraded later today, and it will probably skip being classified as a tropical depression and immediately be named Tropical Storm Rafael. The models are pretty well clustered for the track of 98L, taking it north-northwest through the Lesser Antilles towards Bermuda. With most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms on its east side due to dry air to the west, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the eastern Dominican Republic are likely to see much weaker winds and less heavy rain than the Leeward Islands. The Leeward Islands can expect tropical storm conditions with occasional sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph today and Saturday as 98L moves through. The storm will make its closest pass to Bermuda on Tuesday morning, and it is possible that 98L will be capable of bringing tropical storm conditions to Bermuda. However, the track of 98L on Monday and Tuesday is rather uncertain, due to the possible interaction of the storm with the remnants of Tropical Storm Patty. 98L is not a threat to the U.S., though it could affect Newfoundland, Canada next week.

Jeff Masters

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563. Maineweatherguy20023
7:37 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Rafael has a satellite appearance more like that of a very large, well defined tropical wave than a tropical storm I think... it is a TS of course, just not a very normal one.


i see a CDO forming not a TW.......
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 269
562. islandgirls
4:39 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting CaribBoy:


LOL I SEE I'M NOT THE ONLY ONE THAT LOVES THE RAIN


You've got that right! Always have, always will.
Member Since: April 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 100
561. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
4:29 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
T.C.F.W.
17L/TS/R/CX
MARK
15.15N 61.93W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55517
560. Grothar
4:20 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Thanks, Doc.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
559. Grothar
4:18 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Very cold cloud tops have developed in the past two hours.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
558. LargoFl
4:15 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
GFS at 72 hours but cant trust this just yet...............................If he misses that weakness he may keep going west
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41582
557. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:15 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
556. HuracanTaino
4:15 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting tatoprweather:
People today in Puerto Rico is business as usual. Hope Rafael stays east of us. But seems he's getting more organized, moving slowly and the temperatures around him...mmm just 30°C.
I agree with you but if this thing take us by surprise is not our fault,,,NHC insisting that is moving NNW since the system keeps on moving NW now is looking that is going to hit us directly...the system keeps on moving NW,, authorities and local mets saying is going to past at a safe distant,etc.. they forget that our Island is over populated,,near 4 millions people live here ,,with many people exposed to flooding so lots of evacuation needed to be done,on time...
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1007
555. Grothar
4:14 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
It really is beginning to look like something.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
554. LargoFl
4:13 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41582
553. LargoFl
4:11 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting 7544:


yeap shes keeping se fl under a gloomy day today windy and some rain looks like the same tom. as the remains move sw but still keeping one eye on her anyway lol

as for the r strom waiting to see if it makes a stall and misses the weakness getin interesting there have a good day
yes we must be watchful for the next few days.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41582
552. TropicalAnalystwx13
4:10 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Rafael starting to become better organized, I know, that's a broken record we've held on to with Ernesto and Isaac, but I think this time it's for real.

Trade winds are no higher than 10 knots in the Central and East Caribbean. Definitely supportive of intensification.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32688
551. 7544
4:10 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
remember one thing folks..there were a couple of models a few days ago..that redeveloped Patty under Cuba..and look...


yeap shes keeping se fl under a gloomy day today windy and some rain looks like the same tom. as the remains move sw but still keeping one eye on her anyway lol

as for the r strom waiting to see if it makes a stall and misses the weakness getin interesting there have a good day
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
550. LargoFl
4:09 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Tropical Storm Rafael is slowly strengthening over the Northeastern Caribbean Sea. Rafael is forecast to be near or over the U.S. Virgin Islands this evening, and near eastern Puerto Rico overnight into Sunday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Puerto Rico.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41582
549. superpete
4:09 PM GMT on October 13, 2012


Raphael has some significant coverage
Member Since: October 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 714
548. LargoFl
4:08 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41582
547. LargoFl
4:07 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41582
546. LargoFl
4:04 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
remember one thing folks..there were a couple of models a few days ago..that redeveloped Patty under Cuba..and look...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41582
545. LargoFl
4:02 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting Tropicaldan:
Long time reader of the blog, only ever post when a system is likely to directly affect where I live... So...
Steady rain now here in saint Martin , expecting things to deteriorate this evening and over night
Should please Carib boy !

Dan
..you stay safe down there..heavy rains for sure for carib boy lol..he's been asking for rain now for months..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41582
544. CybrTeddy
3:59 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Rafael starting to become better organized, I know, that's a broken record we've held on to with Ernesto and Isaac, but I think this time it's for real.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
543. Tazmanian
3:54 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
PARIS — Satellite messaging service provider Orbcomm on Oct. 11 said its prototype second-generation satellite, launched Oct. 7 into a bad orbit by a Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) Falcon 9 rocket, had fallen out of orbit but had provided enough data to proceed with the launch of the full constellation starting next year.

Fort Lee, N.J.-based Orbcomm, which plans to launch all 18 second-generation satellites aboard two SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets, said it would be filing an insurance claim of $10 million to cover the loss of the satellite and the cost of the launch and the insurance policy.

In its statement, Orbcomm suggested that its satellite prime contractor, Sierra Nevada Corp. of Sparks, Nev., had enough access to the satellite in less than four days in orbit to validate the performance of its major subsystems.

If Orbcomm’s insurance underwriters accept this, then Orbcomm will not need to launch another prototype, but will be able to proceed with the launch of two groups of second-generation spacecraft on two Falcon 9 rockets. [SpaceX to Space Station: Complete Coverage]

Orbcomm said that, had its satellite been the primary payload on SpaceX’s Oct. 7 flight, the mission would have been a success. The main mission for the Falcon 9 was the delivery into orbit of the SpaceX Dragon space station cargo vehicle, which was berthed to the station on Oct. 10.

SpaceX and NASA, which is SpaceX’s customer for the space station resupply missions, hailed the launch as a success, saying the Falcon 9 rocket’s flexibility was demonstrated by the fact that one of its nine Merlin first-stage engines shut down early in the flight.

It was that engine shutdown that forced SpaceX not to proceed with a reignition of the Falcon 9 engines later in the flight out of respect for NASA space station safety guidelines. With no reignition, the Falcon 9 left Orbcomm’s OG2 satellite in a too-low orbit.

“Notwithstanding the shortened life of the OG2 prototype, the OG2 program engineering teams … made significant strides in testing various hardware components,” Orbcomm said. “The solar array and communications antenna deployments were successful. … The OG2 satellite bus systems including power, attitude control, thermal and data handling were also tested to verify proper operation.

“With this verification data, Orbcomm can focus on completing and launching the OG2 as the primary mission payloads on two planned Falcon 9 launches, the first in mid-2013 and the second in 2014, directly into their operational orbit.”

In an Oct. 8 statement describing the first-stage engine shutdown, SpaceX sought to highlight the Falcon 9 rocket’s robustness given that it delivered the Dragon capsule to the required orbit. Neither Orbcomm nor the OG2 satellite was mentioned in the SpaceX statement.

SpaceX spokeswoman Katherine Nelson on Oct. 11 issued a follow-up statement that dealt with the Orbcomm payload.

"The goal of this mission was to transport cargo to the International Space Station for NASA," the statement said. "Orbcomm requested that SpaceX carry one of their small satellites (weighing a few hundred pounds, vs. Dragon at over 12,000 pounds) on this flight so that they could gather test data before we launch their full constellation next year.

"The higher the orbit, the more test data they can gather, so they requested that we attempt to restart and raise altitude. NASA agreed to allow that, but only on condition that there be substantial propellant reserves, since the orbit would be close to the space station.

"It is important to appreciate that Orbcomm understood from the beginning that the orbit-raising maneuver was tentative. They accepted that there was a high risk of their satellite remaining at the Dragon insertion orbit. SpaceX would not have agreed to fly their satellite otherwise, since this was not part of the core mission and there was a known, material risk of no altitude raise."

This story was provided by Space News, dedicated to covering all aspects of the space industry
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115435
542. GeorgiaStormz
3:51 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player _embedded&v=cIwZ7j-7XTo" target="_blank">Massive hail and tornadoes in Texas! October 12, 2012
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9746
541. Martuch
3:46 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


Just teasing. They will understand that. What is your language?

Born in Italy Living in PR for the past 40 years Too many words very similar to spanish :(
Member Since: September 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12
540. VirginIslandsVisitor
3:41 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting ncstorm:
Sending well wishes to our friends in the islands for tropical storm rafael. hunkerdown and stay SAFE!


Thanks so much. I believe, at least in this house, that we're about ready for whatever happens!

Lindy
Member Since: July 30, 2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 694
539. gordydunnot
3:38 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
I know this may sound strange but I think Rafael maybe one of the more interesting storms of this season. The weakness may run by him without picking him up.The mid/ull to his north by Puerto Rico is moving off to the west and it seems most of the clouds are going in that direction. That's why to me, it is making it so hard to tell where and what direction Rafael is forming or moving.Pressure seem to be building to his north at various Buoys.Oh well that's about all the material I've got, except maybe a blob alert for the NW Caribbean off Nicaragua.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
538. Grothar
3:36 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting Martuch:
yes please mu spanish is not good ;(


Just teasing. They will understand that. What is your language?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
537. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:36 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
97E should be declared a tropical depression at 2pm PDT.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32688
536. Martuch
3:35 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


May we correct your Spanish? :)
yes please mu spanish is not good ;(
Member Since: September 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12
535. MAweatherboy1
3:34 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's better than last year.

I'd say its pretty similar to last year... last year had fewer hurricanes and a lot of weak TSs, but there were 4 majors.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7995
534. CaribBoy
3:33 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6453
533. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:32 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

It would technically be second most active if we get to the number of named storms we need. But really, this season hasn't been anything special in terms of intensity... lot of TSs and weak hurricanes... I'm not trying to take away from how impressive this year has been, especially with the way preseason predictions were, but we barely even had a major hurricane.

It's better than last year.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32688
532. MAweatherboy1
3:29 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
My prediction: The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season will go down as the second most active Atlantic hurricane season on record.



It would technically be second most active if we get to the number of named storms we need. But really, this season hasn't been anything special in terms of intensity... lot of TSs and weak hurricanes... I'm not trying to take away from how impressive this year has been, especially with the way preseason predictions were, but we barely even had a major hurricane.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7995
531. tatoprweather
3:28 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
People today in Puerto Rico is business as usual. Hope Rafael stays east of us. But seems he's getting more organized, moving slowly and the temperatures around him...mmm just 30°C.
Member Since: April 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 136
530. Grothar
3:27 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting Martuch:
No llueve para PR estos momentos Un dia de Sol
La Tormenta Rafael cojera a muchos con los pantalones abajo
No han dado mucha information por los medios de Prensa a la Ciudadania
please translate I will post in Spanish for the benefit of people dont read english
Of course if possible thanks



May we correct your Spanish? :)
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529. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:26 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
My prediction: The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season will go down as the second most active Atlantic hurricane season on record.


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32688
528. Ameister12
3:25 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Rafael is starting to look decent.
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5080
527. MAweatherboy1
3:24 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Rafael has a satellite appearance more like that of a very large, well defined tropical wave than a tropical storm I think... it is a TS of course, just not a very normal one.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7995
526. Martuch
3:23 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
No llueve para PR estos momentos Un dia de Sol
La Tormenta Rafael cojera a muchos con los pantalones abajo
No han dado mucha information por los medios de Prensa a la Ciudadania
please translate I will post in Spanish for the benefit of people dont read english
Of course if possible thanks

Member Since: September 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 12
525. Tropicaldan
3:21 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Long time reader of the blog, only ever post when a system is likely to directly affect where I live... So...
Steady rain now here in saint Martin , expecting things to deteriorate this evening and over night
Should please Carib boy !

Dan
Member Since: February 17, 2006 Posts: 3 Comments: 96
524. CaribBoy
3:19 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting allancalderini:
In here too we may not have a TC but it has rain more than when Matthew, Paula , Richard ,Harvey, and Ernesto pass near here:)


enjoy it, I see you like it too ^^
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6453
523. CaribBoy
3:18 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting islandgirls:
Here comes the rain again and it's pouring this time..........enjoying every moment.


LOL I SEE I'M NOT THE ONLY ONE THAT LOVES THE RAIN
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6453
522. islandgirls
3:17 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Here comes the rain again and it's pouring this time..........enjoying every moment.
Member Since: April 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 100
521. allancalderini
3:14 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting CaribBoy:


and then I'll be very very happy. Interesting weather so far here at 18N 63W though lol. Lots of rain....
In here too we may not have a TC but it has rain more than when Matthew, Paula , Richard ,Harvey, and Ernesto pass near here:)
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
520. CaribBoy
3:12 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Lots of green in the funktop, Rafael beginning to take on the look of a pure tropical storm, winds should start increasing steadily as he inches closer to the Northern Leewards and PR.



and then I'll be very very happy. Interesting weather so far here at 18N 63W though lol. Lots of rain....
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6453
519. 7544
3:09 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
hmm could rafeal go further west before making the turn ? could he stall down there
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518. GTcooliebai
3:09 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Lots of green in the funktop, Rafael beginning to take on the look of a pure tropical storm, winds should start increasing steadily as he inches closer to the Northern Leewards and PR.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
517. islander101010
3:07 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
sailed around culebra when the island was a bombing range. shoreline is rough
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4987
516. Tropicsweatherpr
3:04 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
In my estimation,there is the center.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14753
515. Doppler22
3:02 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
hmm... Looks like Patty is gone, Rafael is looking better and Paul might be forming in the EPAC... One last big kick of the season, i'm thinking after this kick we may have 1 or 2 more but then thats it
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514. Sfloridacat5
3:02 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8844
513. Sfloridacat5
3:01 PM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting wxchaser97:

Maybe everyone is still sleeping, I just woke up.

I agree with that, PR and Bermuda should see heavy rain and wind. I think Rafael won't make it to a major and peak as a cat 1 to maybe cat2.


The forum is dead because the storm isn't a threat to the mainland U.S.
Put a tropical system in the western carribean and see what happens.

And that's what its going to take for the U.S to get as tropical system (GOM or Western Carribean development).
All the other systems will be blocked from directly affecting the mainland U.S.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8844

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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