Patty little threat to the Bahamas; 98L close to tropical storm status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on October 12, 2012

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Tropical Storm Patty formed late yesterday afternoon just east of the Central Bahama Islands. Patty is the sixteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, putting this year in a tie for eighth place for busiest Atlantic season since record keeping began in 1851. Patty isn't going to be around for long, though. Satellite loops show a very sickly storm, with the low-level circulation center exposed to view, and the storm's heavy thunderstorm all pushed to the northeast side of the center of circulation due to strong upper-level winds out of the southwest creating a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. An approaching cold front is dumping dry, stable air into Patty, and the cold front and high shear will likely destroy the storm by Saturday evening. Patty will likely have a minimal impact on the Bahamas. The storm has brought a few sporadic heavy rain showers to the Southeast Bahama Islands this morning, and this activity may continue through Saturday morning. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on its way to Patty, and will be there early this afternoon.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression 16 taken at 11:16 am EDT Thursday, October 11, 2012. At the time, TD 16 had 35 mph winds, and was named Tropical Storm Patty six hours later. Image credit: NASA.

98L bringing heavy rain, high winds to Lesser Antilles
A strong tropical wave (Invest 98L) is bringing tropical-storm force winds and heavy rains to the Lesser Antilles this morning. At 9 am local time, winds at Barbados's Grantly Adams Airport hit a sustained 39 mph, which is minimum tropical storm-force. Wind gusts as high as 47 mph were observed on Barbados this morning. A pass from the Windsat satellite at 12:38 am EDT found that 98L had top winds of 35 mph near 17°N latitude, a few hundred miles east of Antigua. The storm is headed north-northwest to northwest at about 10 - 15 mph, and will bring tropical storm conditions to much of the Lesser Antilles Islands today and Saturday. The disturbance has plenty of spin and a large amount of moderately well-organized heavy thunderstorms, as seen on Martinique radar and satellite loops. An elongated, poorly-defined surface circulation is apparent just west of the central Lesser Antilles Islands, but satellite imagery and airport observations from the islands do not show the well-defined closed surface circulation needed for 98L to be classified as a tropical storm. An upper-level low centered a few hundred miles south of the eastern Dominican Republic is pumping dry air into the west side of 98L, and creating a high 15 - 30 knots of wind shear. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 98L this afternoon.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L over the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Forecast for 98L
Wind shear is predicted to diminish to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, tonight through Saturday night. Given 98L's current degree of organization, the forecast drop in wind shear, and a high degree of model support for development, NHC's 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook forecast of an 80% chance of development by Sunday morning for 98L looks reasonable. I expect 98L to be upgraded later today, and it will probably skip being classified as a tropical depression and immediately be named Tropical Storm Rafael. The models are pretty well clustered for the track of 98L, taking it north-northwest through the Lesser Antilles towards Bermuda. With most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms on its east side due to dry air to the west, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the eastern Dominican Republic are likely to see much weaker winds and less heavy rain than the Leeward Islands. The Leeward Islands can expect tropical storm conditions with occasional sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph today and Saturday as 98L moves through. The storm will make its closest pass to Bermuda on Tuesday morning, and it is possible that 98L will be capable of bringing tropical storm conditions to Bermuda. However, the track of 98L on Monday and Tuesday is rather uncertain, due to the possible interaction of the storm with the remnants of Tropical Storm Patty. 98L is not a threat to the U.S., though it could affect Newfoundland, Canada next week.

Jeff Masters

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163. JeffMasters (Admin)
Hurricane Hunters found about a 10-mile wide band of westerly winds in 98L near 13.5°N 63°W, but the circulation is pretty broad, and may not qualify as a TD yet. No TS force winds at flight level yet.

Jeff Masters


Frost warning

Freezing temperatures expected Saturday morning.

A broad ridge of high pressure is forecast to situate itself over the Lower Great Lakes this evening. As a result clear skies, light winds and cool temperatures are expected tonight. Overnight lows will range from zero to minus 5 for the above mentioned regions. Communities immediately adjacent to the Great Lakes will experience somewhat milder conditions than those located inland.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53506
Quoting Thing342:
The Atlantic doesn't use the letters Q, U, X, Y, or Z, due to the lack of names for those letters. EPac uses all but Q and U for the same reason, except for that the X, Y, and Z names repeat every other year, not every 6.


Thank you!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25979
Quoting MrMixon:
NASA'S Operation Icebridge Resumes Flights Over Antarctica

Link to Press Release

WASHINGTON -- Scientists and flight crew members with Operation IceBridge, NASA's airborne mission to study Earth's changing polar ice, are beginning another campaign over Antarctica. Now in its fourth year, IceBridge's return to the Antarctic comes almost a year after the discovery of a large rift in the continent's Pine Island Glacier.

IceBridge will gather information on many different aspects of land and sea ice using a variety of scientific sensors onboard the DC-8. These instruments include a laser altimeter to measure surface elevation changes, various radar instruments for determining snow depth and ice thickness, a gravimeter that will gather data on the size and shape of water cavities under ice shelves, and a digital camera instrument that takes high-resolution images useful for building maps and digital elevation models of the ice.




Click Here
for a cool photo showing one of the workstations inside the DC-8

Oh, and here's an image of that rift they discovered:


(Click image to embiggen)
I plussed this strictly because of the use of the word "embiggen".... lol
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Parts of the U.S. have definitely been chilly this week. But Dr. Masters also hasn't mentioned that over the past nine and a half months, record high temps have out numbered lows 56,773 to 12,788 (4.44:1). What "agenda" do you imagine might be the motivation for that?

Here's a helpful aid that will help you visualize this week's cooldown vis-a-vis the year as a whole:

US
All the stuff u said didn't hit the way the graphic did. U are really good with this stuff. I gotta say, this looks like the biggest cooldown for the year.

One hopes it is only the beginning. [It may be fainting from the heat, but hope survives....]

Quoting PlazaRed:

Well there's nothing a queer as folk, Queenie said, what a strange quirk of quintessence, or is it just a quoting quandary?
Simple answer: there are too few names beginning with Q and X to make them viable for a list such as ours. For other basins, where names are never retired, they are used.

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
98L's center of circulation is completely exposed and West of Dominica/Martinique. A heavily sheered disturbance and that ULL South of PR pumping in the sheer and dry air has not moved much this morning. The COC is outrunning the displaced convection and headed towards PR.
This seems to have been the story of the season for Car storms... constantly lagging convection...

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Quoting ncstorm:
12z Euro..





Two lows in the caribbean mmm....Be funny if we also ended up with 19 named storms this season.
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The lower level circulation(right around 15N -63.5W on the long vis-loop below) looks decent, and trying to consolidate, but it can't get aligned in the upper levels because of the shear; a tilted system trying really hard to keep it together.

Link
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST FRI OCT 12 2012


.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN...WITH A COUPLE OF CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN...WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS A DEEPER TROUGH DEVELOPS FARTHER TO THE
WEST AND A RIDGE ESTABLISHES TO THE EAST. BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...REACHING THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TUTT ALIGNED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH A CLOSED LOW
MEANDERING OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOLLOWED BY PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AND USVI. AFOREMENTIONED TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
AS A DEEPER TROUGH DEVELOPS FARTHER TO THE WEST AND A RIDGE
ESTABLISHES TO THE EAST.

FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...THE LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST WILL BE DICTATED BY THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT
OVERALL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY EASTERN PUERTO
RICO AS WELL AS U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND
PROBABLY INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS
STILL NOT ETCHED IN STONE. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE
URGED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FLYING AREA THIS EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PASS NEAR
TNCM...TKPK...TIST...TISX AND AND TJSJ THIS EVENING. AFTER 13/16Z...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PR. THIS COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN AND AROUND TJMZ...TJBQ AND POSSIBLY TJSJ. LLVL WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY EAST...AT 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE...
AS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF THE LOCAL
WATERS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 87 78 87 / 70 70 50 50
STT 79 88 79 88 / 70 70 50 60
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155. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #63
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
3:00 AM JST October 13 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 20.4N 129.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 21.1N 130.2E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
48 HRS: 21.8N 130.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
72 HRS: 22.5N 130.3E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45211
154. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 01-20122013
22:30 PM RET October 12 2012
==========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (999 hPa) located at 8.5S 70.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 with gusts of 45. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12HRS

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 10.5S 66.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 11.7S 63.0E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 12.6S 60.6E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

Within the last 6 hours, cloud tops have little warmed and system intensification seem marking a pause. The system still tracking west southwestward to southwestward on the northern edge of the subtropical low-mid level high pressures.

Environmental conditions are favorable with good low level inflow and weak upper level wind shear, system being located beneath the western extremity of an upper level ridge. Currently, heat ocean content is favorable (sea surface temperature is around 27C.

Within the next 3 days, system is expected to keep on tracking regularly west southwestward on the steering influence of the northwestern edge of the subtropical high pressures. Upper level environmental conditions should improve; system expected to move beneath the ridge axis and an outflow channel is expected to build south of the system during this period. Therefore, the system should intensify.

On and after 72 hours, system is expected to encounter cooler sea surface temperatures and undergo strengthening upper level wind shear, weakening the system.
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1007mb pressure found in 98L
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Just watched a great movie with Randy Quaid..Hope he doesn't get in trouble and end up in Quentin, Wasn't there an Eskimo called Quinn?
At 7:00 PM one of the great westerns of all times is on...Gunsmoke with Burt Reynolds as Quint
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Quoting Neapolitan:
The ATCF says 98L's winds have actually dropped by five knots since the last update:

AL, 98, 2012101212, , BEST, 0, 143N, 615W, 35, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 150, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 120, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 98, 2012101218, , BEST, 0, 147N, 627W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
That means no Rafael but td 17.may become Rafael if they find the winds.
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TROPICAL UPDATE...
_______________________

its supposed to say 98L not 98E...sorry

click on the pic for 4x bigger resolution


This does not include the ATCF new data for 2 PM
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Quoting PlazaRed:

Well there's nothing a queer as folk, Queenie said, what a strange quirk of quintessence, or is it just a quoting quandary?
Just watched a great movie with Randy Quaid..Hope he doesn't get in trouble and end up in Quentin, Wasn't there an Eskimo called Quinn?
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The ATCF says 98L's winds have actually dropped by five knots since the last update:

AL, 98, 2012101212, , BEST, 0, 143N, 615W, 35, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 150, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 120, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 98, 2012101218, , BEST, 0, 147N, 627W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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98L's center of circulation is completely exposed and West of Dominica/Martinique. A heavily sheered disturbance and that ULL South of PR pumping in the sheer and dry air has not moved much this morning. The COC is outrunning the displaced convection and headed towards PR.
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12z Euro..





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Good afternoon everyone. Patty isn't looking so good:



98L is also quite sheared but probably a TD or TS right now:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7733
Time: 18:39:30Z
Coordinates: 14.35N 62.5667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 977.2 mb (~ 28.86 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 270 meters (~ 886 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1007.5 mb (~ 29.75 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 271° at 8 knots (From the W at ~ 9.2 mph)
Air Temp: 25.9°C (~ 78.6°F)
Dew Pt: 21.6°C (~ 70.9°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 8 knots (~ 9.2 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 1 knots (~ 1.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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Time: 18:36:30Z
Coordinates: 14.4N 62.7333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 977.0 mb (~ 28.85 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 274 meters (~ 899 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1007.7 mb (~ 29.76 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 297° at 8 knots (From the WNW at ~ 9.2 mph)
Air Temp: 26.0°C (~ 78.8°F)
Dew Pt: 21.7°C (~ 71.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 9 knots (~ 10.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 4 knots (~ 4.6 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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Time: 18:38:30Z
Coordinates: 14.35N 62.6333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 977.0 mb (~ 28.85 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 272 meters (~ 892 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1007.6 mb (~ 29.75 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 288° at 9 knots (From the WNW at ~ 10.3 mph)
Air Temp: 26.0°C (~ 78.8°F)
Dew Pt: 21.7°C (~ 71.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 9 knots (~ 10.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 1 knots (~ 1.1 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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Quoting Grothar:


Good query and question, but I wouldn't quibble over it. I could be just a quirk of NHC. I don't think the use X either, but don't quote me.
The Atlantic doesn't use the letters Q, U, X, Y, or Z, due to the lack of names for those letters. EPac uses all but Q and U for the same reason, except for that the X, Y, and Z names repeat every other year, not every 6.
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Quoting Grothar:


Good query and question, but I wouldn't quibble over it. I could be just a quirk of NHC. I don't think the use X either, but don't quote me.

Well there's nothing a queer as folk, Queenie said, what a strange quirk of quintessence, or is it just a quoting quandary?
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Quoting reedzone:
Hurricane Hunters should find Tropical Storm Rafael


Circulation starting to tighten up, yet exposed.


Any data starting to come in on 98L
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Here is a portion (and link) to the PM NCEP Caribbean Desk discussion as to 98L with a nice synopsis on some of the model divergence. Flooding rains for the Lesser Antilles regardless of development issues.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
156 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 61W SUSTAINS AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE NHC IS MONITORING THIS SYSTEM FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS...AND WILL ISSUE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON HOW THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO EVOLVE. THUS FAR...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF IS DOING A BETTER JOB THAN THE GFS-UKMET IN INITIALIZING/FORECASTING AREAS OF CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. AS THE WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE TUTT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...MOISTURE/CONVECTION IS TO QUICKLY SURGE ACROSS THE WINDWARD/FRENCH ISLANDS. IN A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR ECHO TRAINING...IT IS TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 50-75MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 125-250MM/DAY. THROUGH 42/48 HRS THIS WILL EXPAND/BUILD NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WHERE WE EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-150MM/DAY.


Link
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Hurricane Hunters should find Tropical Storm Rafael


Circulation starting to tighten up, yet exposed.
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Quoting PlazaRed:
If We have got Patty now and the blog heading states:-
"I expect 98L to be upgraded later today, and it will probably skip being classified as a tropical depression and immediately be named Tropical Storm Rafael."

Why is the next storm not starting with the letter "Q"
Just an inane question.


Good query and question, but I wouldn't quibble over it. I could be just a quirk of NHC. I don't think the use X either, but don't quote me.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 25979
How far out?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Ahhh man:(.I hope we see storms like this in the winter.I shouldn't be getting to excited as that is the cmc.
The Cmc is always the most excite of all the models when it show things,but at the end things tend to be weaker than show.
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GFS paints an increasingly lackluster shear picture, with the majority of the jet streak on the back side of the trough. This is a trend downwards from previous runs although the shape and formation of the trough compared to previous runs is more conducive to severe wx if various parameters could be realized. This is still a far out and fluid situation and so no meaningful analysis can be done at this time, only speculation.


Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9725
Quoting luvtogolf:
The U.S. is in a nice cool down after a brutal summer. Over the past week record lows temps have out numbered highs 1,954 to 150 (13:1). Over the past month, lows have out numbered highs 3,105 to 1,212 (2.5:1). No mention by Dr. Masters. Guaranteed that if highs out numbered the lows he would be all over it. Agenda.....

Just thinking about what you write.
At this time of the year it is probable that low temps outnumber high temps as we head down into the winter months.
If the highs outnumbered the lows then it would be a notable anomaly and hence probably be commented on at some blog point.
At the end of the day, or at the end of whatever you like. Not every year can be remarkable and outstanding on the record front but for sure the main thing is not so much the records but the general upward trend in global temps that is important.
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Quoting PlazaRed:
If We have got Patty now and the blog heading states:-
"I expect 98L to be upgraded later today, and it will probably skip being classified as a tropical depression and immediately be named Tropical Storm Rafael."

Why is the next storm not starting with the letter "Q"
Just an inane question.
I think because they are not a lot of names starting with that letter.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Well, considering we live on a planet called Earth, and given the composition of the atmosphere, it makes sense for record highs to typically outnumber record lows.
I wouldn't be too sure about that. In a stable climate, record highs and record lows would logically be expected to occur in roughly equal amounts over the long term. That's not happening, of course; each passing decade sees an increasing number of record highs and a decreasing number of record lows. And that's true not just here in the United States, but across the planet as a whole.
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Quoting ncstorm:
168 hours
Ahhh man:(.I hope we see storms like this in the winter.I shouldn't be getting to excited as that is the cmc.
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Quoting ncstorm:
Good Gosh..that would be one severe weather outbreak..992mb!! 12z CMC



GFS was hinting at a system too, but much weaker, around the same time frame, more of a enlongated trough attached to a gulf low with surface lows in texas and the ohio valley.
If the CMC's version panned out, good heavens that looks interesting.
Either way its too far to jump to anything, edge of the forecast period.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9725
Quoting Neapolitan:
Parts of the U.S. have definitely been chilly this week. But Dr. Masters also hasn't mentioned that over the past nine and a half months, record high temps have out numbered lows 56,773 to 12,788 (4.44:1). What "agenda" do you imagine might be the motivation for that?

Here's a helpful aid that will help you visualize this week's cooldown vis-a-vis the year as a whole:

US

But Dr. Masters has the "agenda"? Seriously? ;-)



Well, considering we live on a planet called Earth, and given the composition of the atmosphere, it makes sense for record highs to typically outnumber record lows.
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St. Lucia, Martinique, and Dominica getting hammered by 98L at the moment.
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168 hours
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If We have got Patty now and the blog heading states:-
"I expect 98L to be upgraded later today, and it will probably skip being classified as a tropical depression and immediately be named Tropical Storm Rafael."

Why is the next storm not starting with the letter "Q"
Just an inane question.
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yes...Im late

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM PATTY...LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS.

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF DOMINICA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE IN RAINBANDS...HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS STILL SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LACKS A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WILL FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
IF THIS OCCURS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WOULD BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
WILL BE INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

long talk there.... I also see that we have TC One in the Indian Ocean...better work on my graphic talking about this...
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Good Gosh..that would be one severe weather outbreak..992mb!! 12z CMC

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Quoting luvtogolf:
The U.S. is in a nice cool down after a brutal summer. Over the past week record lows temps have out numbered highs 1,954 to 150 (13:1). Over the past month, lows have out numbered highs 3,105 to 1,212 (2.5:1). No mention by Dr. Masters. Guaranteed that if highs out numbered the lows he would be all over it. Agenda.....
Parts of the U.S. have definitely been chilly this week. But Dr. Masters also hasn't mentioned that over the past nine and a half months, record high temps have out numbered lows 56,773 to 12,788 (4.44:1). What "agenda" do you imagine might be the motivation for that?

Here's a helpful aid that will help you visualize this week's cooldown vis-a-vis the year as a whole:

US
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Quoting pottery:
98 is really a pretty large system.

If that thing starts to spin and the shear drops off a bit, whoaaaaaa !


Yes, Pottery, I have a little of the "worried look" going on over here due to exactly what you said.

Lindy
Member Since: July 30, 2011 Posts: 2 Comments: 617
117. VR46L
Quoting washingtonian115:
Sure did.I wanted to call her pretty Patty but it appears she has let the ugly out.Well any storm is better looking than Danny I guess.


At that point she was the prettiest female storm this year but was not offically a storm then ...the guys have been beating the gals all year ..except for Ernie and Issac were ugly too .. Gordon ,kirk and Michael were really pretty ,beautiful looking storms..
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Quoting VR46L:


Patty was cute yesterday before she was declared ...as soon as she was declared she started going downhill
Sure did.I wanted to call her pretty Patty but it appears she has let the ugly out.Well any storm is better looking than Danny I guess.
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Quoting luvtogolf:
The U.S. is in a nice cool down after a brutal summer. Over the past week record lows temps have out numbered highs 1,954 to 150 (13:1). Over the past month, lows have out numbered highs 3,105 to 1,212 (2.5:1). No mention by Dr. Masters. Guaranteed that if highs out numbered the lows he would be all over it. Agenda.....
Yep.Been some frosty nights these last few days.
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NASA'S Operation Icebridge Resumes Flights Over Antarctica

Link to Press Release

WASHINGTON -- Scientists and flight crew members with Operation IceBridge, NASA's airborne mission to study Earth's changing polar ice, are beginning another campaign over Antarctica. Now in its fourth year, IceBridge's return to the Antarctic comes almost a year after the discovery of a large rift in the continent's Pine Island Glacier.

IceBridge will gather information on many different aspects of land and sea ice using a variety of scientific sensors onboard the DC-8. These instruments include a laser altimeter to measure surface elevation changes, various radar instruments for determining snow depth and ice thickness, a gravimeter that will gather data on the size and shape of water cavities under ice shelves, and a digital camera instrument that takes high-resolution images useful for building maps and digital elevation models of the ice.




Click Here
for a cool photo showing one of the workstations inside the DC-8

Oh, and here's an image of that rift they discovered:


(Click image to embiggen)
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113. VR46L
Quoting washingtonian115:
Patty and 98L are very fugly.Like bother and sister I guess.Well at least its better than talking anout AGW but that'll be saved for when hurricane season is over.Please let winter come early this year!!.


Patty was cute yesterday before she was declared ...as soon as she was declared she started going downhill
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.