Patty little threat to the Bahamas; 98L close to tropical storm status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on October 12, 2012

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Tropical Storm Patty formed late yesterday afternoon just east of the Central Bahama Islands. Patty is the sixteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, putting this year in a tie for eighth place for busiest Atlantic season since record keeping began in 1851. Patty isn't going to be around for long, though. Satellite loops show a very sickly storm, with the low-level circulation center exposed to view, and the storm's heavy thunderstorm all pushed to the northeast side of the center of circulation due to strong upper-level winds out of the southwest creating a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. An approaching cold front is dumping dry, stable air into Patty, and the cold front and high shear will likely destroy the storm by Saturday evening. Patty will likely have a minimal impact on the Bahamas. The storm has brought a few sporadic heavy rain showers to the Southeast Bahama Islands this morning, and this activity may continue through Saturday morning. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on its way to Patty, and will be there early this afternoon.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression 16 taken at 11:16 am EDT Thursday, October 11, 2012. At the time, TD 16 had 35 mph winds, and was named Tropical Storm Patty six hours later. Image credit: NASA.

98L bringing heavy rain, high winds to Lesser Antilles
A strong tropical wave (Invest 98L) is bringing tropical-storm force winds and heavy rains to the Lesser Antilles this morning. At 9 am local time, winds at Barbados's Grantly Adams Airport hit a sustained 39 mph, which is minimum tropical storm-force. Wind gusts as high as 47 mph were observed on Barbados this morning. A pass from the Windsat satellite at 12:38 am EDT found that 98L had top winds of 35 mph near 17°N latitude, a few hundred miles east of Antigua. The storm is headed north-northwest to northwest at about 10 - 15 mph, and will bring tropical storm conditions to much of the Lesser Antilles Islands today and Saturday. The disturbance has plenty of spin and a large amount of moderately well-organized heavy thunderstorms, as seen on Martinique radar and satellite loops. An elongated, poorly-defined surface circulation is apparent just west of the central Lesser Antilles Islands, but satellite imagery and airport observations from the islands do not show the well-defined closed surface circulation needed for 98L to be classified as a tropical storm. An upper-level low centered a few hundred miles south of the eastern Dominican Republic is pumping dry air into the west side of 98L, and creating a high 15 - 30 knots of wind shear. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 98L this afternoon.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L over the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Forecast for 98L
Wind shear is predicted to diminish to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, tonight through Saturday night. Given 98L's current degree of organization, the forecast drop in wind shear, and a high degree of model support for development, NHC's 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook forecast of an 80% chance of development by Sunday morning for 98L looks reasonable. I expect 98L to be upgraded later today, and it will probably skip being classified as a tropical depression and immediately be named Tropical Storm Rafael. The models are pretty well clustered for the track of 98L, taking it north-northwest through the Lesser Antilles towards Bermuda. With most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms on its east side due to dry air to the west, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the eastern Dominican Republic are likely to see much weaker winds and less heavy rain than the Leeward Islands. The Leeward Islands can expect tropical storm conditions with occasional sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph today and Saturday as 98L moves through. The storm will make its closest pass to Bermuda on Tuesday morning, and it is possible that 98L will be capable of bringing tropical storm conditions to Bermuda. However, the track of 98L on Monday and Tuesday is rather uncertain, due to the possible interaction of the storm with the remnants of Tropical Storm Patty. 98L is not a threat to the U.S., though it could affect Newfoundland, Canada next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting avthunder:
Do we have Rafael?


not yet
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Quoting Grothar:
Do we have Rafael?
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211. Skyepony (Mod)
Awe~ TRMM caught the eye of PRAPIROON.. Really big quicktime movie..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 37848
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209. Skyepony (Mod)
TRMM 97E
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I thought the Doc said this would dissipate by Friday afternoon. Look, there are still clouds there.

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207. Skyepony (Mod)
OSCAT missed everything in the Atlantic. TRMM caught a partial of 98L. Quicktime movie.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 37848
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Hello...
pretty much dead.
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Hello...
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I don't agree with this NW/NNW for now , jmo.
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Cyclone 1S:

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION PATTY...LOCATED ABOUT 265 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

UPDATED...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 100 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DOMINICA.
PRELIMINARY DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW COULD BE
DEVELOPING A WELL-DEFINED CENTER...AND THAT IT IS PRODUCING WINDS
OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE NEAR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IF
ADDITIONAL AIRCRAFT DATA CONFIRM THE EXISTENCE OF A CENTER...
ADVISORIES WOULD BE INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

IF A TROPICAL STORM FORMS...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
Rafael is on the verge of being born.
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Definitely a well-defined circulation making its presence known between Dominica and Martinique over the last two frames. This should be classified at 11pm EDT...or sooner.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32061
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF SYSTEM AFFECTING THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION PATTY...LOCATED ABOUT 265 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

UPDATED...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 100 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DOMINICA.
PRELIMINARY DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW COULD BE
DEVELOPING A WELL-DEFINED CENTER...AND THAT IT IS PRODUCING WINDS
OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE NEAR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IF
ADDITIONAL AIRCRAFT DATA CONFIRM THE EXISTENCE OF A CENTER...
ADVISORIES WOULD BE INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

IF A TROPICAL STORM FORMS...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32061
IMO, 98L will probably become TD17 tomorrow, or possibly even Tropical Storm Rafael. All depends on DMAX, but the models all develop it.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Well, considering we live on a planet called Earth, and given the composition of the atmosphere, it makes sense for record highs to typically outnumber record lows.


Given the composition of the atmosphere, as in an increasing level of greenhouse gases, then yes, it does make sense that we would be seeing more record high temperatures than record low temperatures, in a warming climate. ... Is this what you meant to say?
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Quoting SLU:
thanksq
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194. SLU
Quoting PRweathercenter:
Does anyone have the link for the navy site handy?

Link
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5163
Ive never seen the blog this quite
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AL, 98, 2012101218, , BEST, 0, 147N, 627W, 35, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 150, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
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Does anyone have the link for the navy site handy?
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98L RGB
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97E:

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...PATTY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 72.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES



nothing unexpected..from her
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT
PATTY HAD MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
SINCE THAT TIME...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DECOUPLED FROM
THE WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO ABOUT 25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR. BASED ON THE DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 30 KT AND PATTY IS DOWNGRADED TO A
DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN
A SPIN DOWN TO REMNANT LOW STATUS BY 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
OCCUR SOONER IF THE DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS OR SOONER.

PATTY HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE
MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN AS PATTY IS STEERED BY A
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH
DISSIPATION...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 25.5N 72.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 25.4N 72.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 25.0N 72.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/0600Z 24.2N 74.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32061
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT
PATTY HAD MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
SINCE THAT TIME...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DECOUPLED FROM
THE WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO ABOUT 25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR. BASED ON THE DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 30 KT AND PATTY IS DOWNGRADED TO A
DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN
A SPIN DOWN TO REMNANT LOW STATUS BY 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD
OCCUR SOONER IF THE DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS OR SOONER.

PATTY HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE
MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN AS PATTY IS STEERED BY A
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH
DISSIPATION...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 25.5N 72.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 25.4N 72.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 25.0N 72.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/0600Z 24.2N 74.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...PATTY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 72.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32061
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


BINGO!...this one not contaminated
i think we have ts winds now
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Time: 20:19:30Z
Coordinates: 13.4667N 60.55W
Acft. Static Air Press: 959.3 mb (~ 28.33 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 424 meters (~ 1,391 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1007.1 mb (~ 29.74 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 166° at 40 knots (From the SSE at ~ 46.0 mph)
Air Temp: 22.8°C (~ 73.0°F)
Dew Pt: 18.7°C (~ 65.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 43 knots (~ 49.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 35 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data


BINGO!...this one not contaminated
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Time: 20:19:30Z
Coordinates: 13.4667N 60.55W
Acft. Static Air Press: 959.3 mb (~ 28.33 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 424 meters (~ 1,391 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1007.1 mb (~ 29.74 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 166° at 40 knots (From the SSE at ~ 46.0 mph)
Air Temp: 22.8°C (~ 73.0°F)
Dew Pt: 18.7°C (~ 65.7°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 43 knots (~ 49.4 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 35 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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A ton of flight-level tropical storm force winds are being found east of Barbados.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32061
The NHC needs firm evidence of a consolidated closed circulation to classify. IMO they don't have it yet from what recon has found... very close though... 11PM is still a good possibility.
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178. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting washingtonian115:
Thanks for that info Doc.Some bloggers wondered if you were going to address the fact that their have been more lows than highs this week.Then again it is fall and it's getting colder.


I mentioned this on Tuesday in my post on the September U.S. weather summary, noting that record lows had outpaced record highs by 4:1 over the past week, making it one of the coolest weeks (relative to average) for the year.

Jeff Masters



atty
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176. SLU
Quoting angelafritz:


Still looks elongated. It's hard to tell what they'll do.


Time will tell
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5163
Winds on the north side of the circulation are from the west when they should be from the east, and winds on the west side of the circulation are more from the south when they should be from the north. It is probably closed, but just barely. Satellite imagery shows a continued consolidation of this center, and with relaxing shear and its proximity to land, I wouldn't be surprised if this was declared later tonight. As I said in my last post, 11pm EDT isn't too bad of a guess.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32061
Circulation tightening with every frame now. 14.9N/62.5W IMO.
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Can someone tell me where the center of 98l is from the recon data?
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172. angelafritz (Admin)
Quoting SLU:
98L's center might not be well defined but the overall circulation appears to be closed.


Still looks elongated. It's hard to tell what they'll do.
171. SLU
98L's center might not be well defined but the overall circulation appears to be closed.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5163
Quoting PlazaRed:

Just thinking about what you write.
At this time of the year it is probable that low temps outnumber high temps as we head down into the winter months.
If the highs outnumbered the lows then it would be a notable anomaly and hence probably be commented on at some blog point.
At the end of the day, or at the end of whatever you like. Not every year can be remarkable and outstanding on the record front but for sure the main thing is not so much the records but the general upward trend in global temps that is important.


I would have to respectfully disagree with this. Time of year does not matter IMO. The record high in Anytown, USA on July 4th might be 102. The record high for the same city on Oct 12th might be 86. There's an equal chance of record highs and lows on any given date throughout the course of the year.

Anyhow, even though there's been a recent cooling trend, one can't dispute over the longer term we've been trending warmer.
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Should be enough for classification at 11pm EDT.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32061
I posted a blog.You can dicuss anything you want on it so enjoy.
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Thanks Dr. Masters. I am sure that we would all be wondering why it didn't get classified.

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Quoting JeffMasters:
Hurricane Hunters found about a 10-mile wide band of westerly winds in 98L near 13.5°N 63°W, but the circulation is pretty broad, and may not qualify as a TD yet. No TS force winds at flight level yet.

Jeff Masters
Thanks for that info Doc.Some bloggers wondered if you were going to address the fact that their have been more lows than highs this week.Then again it is fall and it's getting colder.
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98L show us your muscles! You can do it, don't let the hurricane hunters waste their expensive fuel.
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About 20 minutes ago an earthquake was felt in Costa Rica. Mag :5.3 Depth 37km.
just off the coasts of Costa Rica. No damage reported

Lat:9,426
Long: -84.376
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163. JeffMasters (Admin)
Hurricane Hunters found about a 10-mile wide band of westerly winds in 98L near 13.5°N 63°W, but the circulation is pretty broad, and may not qualify as a TD yet. No TS force winds at flight level yet.

Jeff Masters

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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