Patty little threat to the Bahamas; 98L close to tropical storm status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on October 12, 2012

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Tropical Storm Patty formed late yesterday afternoon just east of the Central Bahama Islands. Patty is the sixteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, putting this year in a tie for eighth place for busiest Atlantic season since record keeping began in 1851. Patty isn't going to be around for long, though. Satellite loops show a very sickly storm, with the low-level circulation center exposed to view, and the storm's heavy thunderstorm all pushed to the northeast side of the center of circulation due to strong upper-level winds out of the southwest creating a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. An approaching cold front is dumping dry, stable air into Patty, and the cold front and high shear will likely destroy the storm by Saturday evening. Patty will likely have a minimal impact on the Bahamas. The storm has brought a few sporadic heavy rain showers to the Southeast Bahama Islands this morning, and this activity may continue through Saturday morning. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on its way to Patty, and will be there early this afternoon.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression 16 taken at 11:16 am EDT Thursday, October 11, 2012. At the time, TD 16 had 35 mph winds, and was named Tropical Storm Patty six hours later. Image credit: NASA.

98L bringing heavy rain, high winds to Lesser Antilles
A strong tropical wave (Invest 98L) is bringing tropical-storm force winds and heavy rains to the Lesser Antilles this morning. At 9 am local time, winds at Barbados's Grantly Adams Airport hit a sustained 39 mph, which is minimum tropical storm-force. Wind gusts as high as 47 mph were observed on Barbados this morning. A pass from the Windsat satellite at 12:38 am EDT found that 98L had top winds of 35 mph near 17°N latitude, a few hundred miles east of Antigua. The storm is headed north-northwest to northwest at about 10 - 15 mph, and will bring tropical storm conditions to much of the Lesser Antilles Islands today and Saturday. The disturbance has plenty of spin and a large amount of moderately well-organized heavy thunderstorms, as seen on Martinique radar and satellite loops. An elongated, poorly-defined surface circulation is apparent just west of the central Lesser Antilles Islands, but satellite imagery and airport observations from the islands do not show the well-defined closed surface circulation needed for 98L to be classified as a tropical storm. An upper-level low centered a few hundred miles south of the eastern Dominican Republic is pumping dry air into the west side of 98L, and creating a high 15 - 30 knots of wind shear. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 98L this afternoon.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L over the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Forecast for 98L
Wind shear is predicted to diminish to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, tonight through Saturday night. Given 98L's current degree of organization, the forecast drop in wind shear, and a high degree of model support for development, NHC's 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook forecast of an 80% chance of development by Sunday morning for 98L looks reasonable. I expect 98L to be upgraded later today, and it will probably skip being classified as a tropical depression and immediately be named Tropical Storm Rafael. The models are pretty well clustered for the track of 98L, taking it north-northwest through the Lesser Antilles towards Bermuda. With most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms on its east side due to dry air to the west, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the eastern Dominican Republic are likely to see much weaker winds and less heavy rain than the Leeward Islands. The Leeward Islands can expect tropical storm conditions with occasional sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph today and Saturday as 98L moves through. The storm will make its closest pass to Bermuda on Tuesday morning, and it is possible that 98L will be capable of bringing tropical storm conditions to Bermuda. However, the track of 98L on Monday and Tuesday is rather uncertain, due to the possible interaction of the storm with the remnants of Tropical Storm Patty. 98L is not a threat to the U.S., though it could affect Newfoundland, Canada next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting angelafritz:


The ones on Wikipedia are using odd update times, like 03Z ans 21Z. Im using the standard 00, 06, 12, and 18Z updates. They are from the best track files.

Also, one thing we included that other sources don't is subtropical systems.

That explains it. We go off the operational advisories.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32335
Lots of moisture.
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Quoting JeffMasters:
Hurricane Hunters found about a 10-mile wide band of westerly winds in 98L near 13.5°N 63°W, but the circulation is pretty broad, and may not qualify as a TD yet. No TS force winds at flight level yet.

Jeff Masters
Thanks Dr. Master, then no classification, at 8:00 pm ?? ... Hopefully people will prepare for TS conditions, nevertheless , because the system is producing very strong winds on the island.
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 932
259. angelafritz (Admin)
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
One graphic I like is a pie chart which shows the ACE for each storm for the current year.


I like it.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 660
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
625 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN NM NEW MEXICO
MUCH OF WEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 625 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
CARLSBAD NEW MEXICO TO 25 MILES NORTH OF AMARILLO TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NM AND MUCH OF WEST/NORTHWEST
TX. A SEASONALLY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...IN
THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR...WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST AS
WELL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY/MID EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST NM/TX PANHANDLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN AFTER DARK.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23030.


...GUYER
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7844
257. angelafritz (Admin)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The values there are higher than the values I keep updated here. Does the one you constructed mistakenly account for tropical depressions, subtropical cyclones, or does it go off the ATCF file? Anything like that?


The ones on Wikipedia are using odd update times, like 03Z ans 21Z. Im using the standard 00, 06, 12, and 18Z updates. They are from the best track files.

Also, one thing we included that other sources don't is subtropical systems.
Quoting angelafritz:
Hi everyone, I just launched an ACE page. Let me know if you have any suggestions. I have a few improvements on the list for the next month or so but I'm totally open to feedback, as always.



Thank you, looks good. Nice to have it right here on WU.

One graphic I like is a pie chart which shows the ACE for each storm for the current year.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6051
The global ACE isn't adding up either.
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Quoting angelafritz:
Hi everyone, I just launched an ACE page. Let me know if you have any suggestions. I have a few improvements on the list for the next month or so but I'm totally open to feedback, as always.
They look cool but I have a question why are yours a little different than the ones at Wikipedia?I think that maybe they haven`t update the Ace for some storms.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4410
Quoting angelafritz:
Hi everyone, I just launched an ACE page. Let me know if you have any suggestions. I have a few improvements on the list for the next month or so but I'm totally open to feedback, as always.

The values there are higher than the values I keep updated here. Does the one you constructed mistakenly account for tropical depressions, subtropical cyclones, or does it go off the ATCF file? Anything like that?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32335
Quoting PRweathercenter:
im sure will have rafael at 8
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 932
250. wxmod
From the US embassy in Beijing

7h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir
10-12-2012 00:00 to 10-12-2012 23:59; PM2.5 24hr avg; 170.9; 221; Very Unhealthy


7h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

10-13-2012 00:00; PM2.5; 256.0; 306; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level)


7h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

10-12-2012 23:00; PM2.5; 269.0; 319; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level)


9h BeijingAir BeijingAir ‏@BeijingAir

10-12-2012 22:00; PM2.5; 248.0; 298; Very Unhealthy (at 24-hour exposure at this level)


Here's a satellite photo of Beijing today. MODIS



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Popped in for a minute and thought I was on the International Blog. Excusez-moi

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248. angelafritz (Admin)
Hi everyone, I just launched an ACE page. Let me know if you have any suggestions. I have a few improvements on the list for the next month or so but I'm totally open to feedback, as always.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Ada is the best.
Martorell is the worst.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Lots of west winds, upgrade soon coming.


Can you make that more bigger as I can't see clearly the mission tracks.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14406
Quoting PRweathercenter:
sorry about that, i just think about how uninformative the news are here.
The truth is the truth
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Quoting JLPR2:


Well I'll give you that, I prefer Ada Monson. XD


Ada is the best.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14406
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Lots of west winds, upgrade soon coming.
im sure will have rafael at 8
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 60 Comments: 1011
Quoting JLPR2:
The same comment quoted 5 times...

A little excessive, no?
sorry about that, i just think about how uninformative the news are here.
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 60 Comments: 1011


Lots of west winds, upgrade soon coming.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7935
What's cooking in the Atlantic these days??

Looks liks Pathetic Patty Petered out.
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238. JLPR2
The same comment quoted 5 times...

A little excessive, no?
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
Quoting PRweathercenter:
Hola Amigos de Wapa.Tv:

Lluvias se han disipado en el oeste. Todas las advertencias de inundaciones han sido descontinuadas.

Hoy viernes el tiempo se mantiene variable tuvimos momentos de sol interrumpidos por lluvias de corta duración al este pero con otra tarde lluviosa. El calor, la humedad y la vaguada alta provocaron la formación de aguaceros y tronadas en pueblos del centro, oeste y noroeste. Las lluvias se disiparon al atardecer.

A las 5pmla onda tropical Invest 98L a 100 millas al oeste de Dominica aumentó a un 90% de posibilidad de organización. El avión caza huracanes investiga el sistema y encontró vientos de intensidad de tormenta pero busca una circulación definida para poder ser nombrada la tormenta tropical Rafael lo que puede ocurrir en cualquier momento durante la noche. La data del aviónserá determinante para su clasificación y actualización de los modelos de proyección. Hasta la tarde de hoy permanecia la misma tendencia ubicando el paso de este sistema al este de las Islas Vírgenes entre la noche del sábado y el domingo. La distancia aún es incierta lo que nos obliga a mantenernos atentos y con un pronóstico de lluvias para la región entre la noche del sábado al lunes. Vientos cortantes han provocado un proceso lento de organización de esta onda tropical y han concentrado su parte más activa al este.

Es importante estar atentos a los boletines esta noche y mañanaya que podrían estarse emitiendo avisos y vigilancias de tormenta para varias Islas del Caribe incluyendo las Islas Virgenes. La cantidad de lluvia para la Isla aún no se puede estimar debido a la incertidumbre con la distancia de su paso y su posible organización. De todos modos podemos esperar condiciones muy inestables desde el sábado en la tarde, ventosas y fuerte oleaje en las costas sureste, este y norte.

Deborah Martorell

Meteoróloga
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 932
Quoting JLPR2:


Well I'll give you that, I prefer Ada Monson. XD
Ada Monzon and Israel Matos(retired) are the only meteorologists in Puerto Rico.Deborah Martorell always repeat what she reads in all weather web sites.She's only a weather reporter.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Well I'll give you that, I prefer Ada Monson. XD
She is just oonservative, but much better than Susan and the "sign language guy"...
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 932
Quoting PRweathercenter:
Hola Amigos de Wapa.Tv:

Lluvias se han disipado en el oeste. Todas las advertencias de inundaciones han sido descontinuadas.

Hoy viernes el tiempo se mantiene variable tuvimos momentos de sol interrumpidos por lluvias de corta duración al este pero con otra tarde lluviosa. El calor, la humedad y la vaguada alta provocaron la formación de aguaceros y tronadas en pueblos del centro, oeste y noroeste. Las lluvias se disiparon al atardecer.

A las 5pmla onda tropical Invest 98L a 100 millas al oeste de Dominica aumentó a un 90% de posibilidad de organización. El avión caza huracanes investiga el sistema y encontró vientos de intensidad de tormenta pero busca una circulación definida para poder ser nombrada la tormenta tropical Rafael lo que puede ocurrir en cualquier momento durante la noche. La data del aviónserá determinante para su clasificación y actualización de los modelos de proyección. Hasta la tarde de hoy permanecia la misma tendencia ubicando el paso de este sistema al este de las Islas Vírgenes entre la noche del sábado y el domingo. La distancia aún es incierta lo que nos obliga a mantenernos atentos y con un pronóstico de lluvias para la región entre la noche del sábado al lunes. Vientos cortantes han provocado un proceso lento de organización de esta onda tropical y han concentrado su parte más activa al este.

Es importante estar atentos a los boletines esta noche y mañanaya que podrían estarse emitiendo avisos y vigilancias de tormenta para varias Islas del Caribe incluyendo las Islas Virgenes. La cantidad de lluvia para la Isla aún no se puede estimar debido a la incertidumbre con la distancia de su paso y su posible organización. De todos modos podemos esperar condiciones muy inestables desde el sábado en la tarde, ventosas y fuerte oleaje en las costas sureste, este y norte.

Deborah Martorell

Meteoróloga
< Well even Deborah Martorel agree that we in Puerto Rico should watch this one careful,, might take a closer approach and affects us with the heavy rain and winds.
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 932
233. JLPR2
Quoting prcane4you:
Deborah Martorell no sirve como meteorologa


Well I'll give you that, I prefer Ada Monson. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
Quoting PRweathercenter:
Hola Amigos de Wapa.Tv:

Lluvias se han disipado en el oeste. Todas las advertencias de inundaciones han sido descontinuadas.

Hoy viernes el tiempo se mantiene variable tuvimos momentos de sol interrumpidos por lluvias de corta duracin al este pero con otra tarde lluviosa. El calor, la humedad y la vaguada alta provocaron la formacin de aguaceros y tronadas en pueblos del centro, oeste y noroeste. Las lluvias se disiparon al atardecer.

A las 5pmla onda tropical Invest 98L a 100 millas al oeste de Dominica aument a un 90% de posibilidad de organizacin. El avin caza huracanes investiga el sistema y encontr vientos de intensidad de tormenta pero busca una circulacin definida para poder ser nombrada la tormenta tropical Rafael lo que puede ocurrir en cualquier momento durante la noche. La data del avinser determinante para su clasificacin y actualizacin de los modelos de proyeccin. Hasta la tarde de hoy permanecia la misma tendencia ubicando el paso de este sistema al este de las Islas Vrgenes entre la noche del sbado y el domingo. La distancia an es incierta lo que nos obliga a mantenernos atentos y con un pronstico de lluvias para la regin entre la noche del sbado al lunes. Vientos cortantes han provocado un proceso lento de organizacin de esta onda tropical y han concentrado su parte ms activa al este.

Es importante estar atentos a los boletines esta noche y maanaya que podran estarse emitiendo avisos y vigilancias de tormenta para varias Islas del Caribe incluyendo las Islas Virgenes. La cantidad de lluvia para la Isla an no se puede estimar debido a la incertidumbre con la distancia de su paso y su posible organizacin. De todos modos podemos esperar condiciones muy inestables desde el sbado en la tarde, ventosas y fuerte oleaje en las costas sureste, este y norte.

Deborah Martorell

Meteorloga

No me comprendes Espaol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32335
Quoting prcane4you:
Quoting PRweathercenter:
Hola Amigos de Wapa.Tv:

Lluvias se han disipado en el oeste. Todas las advertencias de inundaciones han sido descontinuadas.

Hoy viernes el tiempo se mantiene variable tuvimos momentos de sol interrumpidos por lluvias de corta duración al este pero con otra tarde lluviosa. El calor, la humedad y la vaguada alta provocaron la formación de aguaceros y tronadas en pueblos del centro, oeste y noroeste. Las lluvias se disiparon al atardecer.

A las 5pmla onda tropical Invest 98L a 100 millas al oeste de Dominica aumentó a un 90% de posibilidad de organización. El avión caza huracanes investiga el sistema y encontró vientos de intensidad de tormenta pero busca una circulación definida para poder ser nombrada la tormenta tropical Rafael lo que puede ocurrir en cualquier momento durante la noche. La data del aviónserá determinante para su clasificación y actualización de los modelos de proyección. Hasta la tarde de hoy permanecia la misma tendencia ubicando el paso de este sistema al este de las Islas Vírgenes entre la noche del sábado y el domingo. La distancia aún es incierta lo que nos obliga a mantenernos atentos y con un pronóstico de lluvias para la región entre la noche del sábado al lunes. Vientos cortantes han provocado un proceso lento de organización de esta onda tropical y han concentrado su parte más activa al este.

Es importante estar atentos a los boletines esta noche y mañanaya que podrían estarse emitiendo avisos y vigilancias de tormenta para varias Islas del Caribe incluyendo las Islas Virgenes. La cantidad de lluvia para la Isla aún no se puede estimar debido a la incertidumbre con la distancia de su paso y su posible organización. De todos modos podemos esperar condiciones muy inestables desde el sábado en la tarde, ventosas y fuerte oleaje en las costas sureste, este y norte.

Deborah Martorell

Meteoróloga
Deborah Martorell no sirve como meteorologa
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PRweathercenter:
Hola Amigos de Wapa.Tv:

Lluvias se han disipado en el oeste. Todas las advertencias de inundaciones han sido descontinuadas.

Hoy viernes el tiempo se mantiene variable tuvimos momentos de sol interrumpidos por lluvias de corta duración al este pero con otra tarde lluviosa. El calor, la humedad y la vaguada alta provocaron la formación de aguaceros y tronadas en pueblos del centro, oeste y noroeste. Las lluvias se disiparon al atardecer.

A las 5pmla onda tropical Invest 98L a 100 millas al oeste de Dominica aumentó a un 90% de posibilidad de organización. El avión caza huracanes investiga el sistema y encontró vientos de intensidad de tormenta pero busca una circulación definida para poder ser nombrada la tormenta tropical Rafael lo que puede ocurrir en cualquier momento durante la noche. La data del aviónserá determinante para su clasificación y actualización de los modelos de proyección. Hasta la tarde de hoy permanecia la misma tendencia ubicando el paso de este sistema al este de las Islas Vírgenes entre la noche del sábado y el domingo. La distancia aún es incierta lo que nos obliga a mantenernos atentos y con un pronóstico de lluvias para la región entre la noche del sábado al lunes. Vientos cortantes han provocado un proceso lento de organización de esta onda tropical y han concentrado su parte más activa al este.

Es importante estar atentos a los boletines esta noche y mañanaya que podrían estarse emitiendo avisos y vigilancias de tormenta para varias Islas del Caribe incluyendo las Islas Virgenes. La cantidad de lluvia para la Isla aún no se puede estimar debido a la incertidumbre con la distancia de su paso y su posible organización. De todos modos podemos esperar condiciones muy inestables desde el sábado en la tarde, ventosas y fuerte oleaje en las costas sureste, este y norte.

Deborah Martorell

Meteoróloga
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hola Amigos de Wapa.Tv:

Lluvias se han disipado en el oeste. Todas las advertencias de inundaciones han sido descontinuadas.

Hoy viernes el tiempo se mantiene variable tuvimos momentos de sol interrumpidos por lluvias de corta duración al este pero con otra tarde lluviosa. El calor, la humedad y la vaguada alta provocaron la formación de aguaceros y tronadas en pueblos del centro, oeste y noroeste. Las lluvias se disiparon al atardecer.

A las 5pmla onda tropical Invest 98L a 100 millas al oeste de Dominica aumentó a un 90% de posibilidad de organización. El avión caza huracanes investiga el sistema y encontró vientos de intensidad de tormenta pero busca una circulación definida para poder ser nombrada la tormenta tropical Rafael lo que puede ocurrir en cualquier momento durante la noche. La data del aviónserá determinante para su clasificación y actualización de los modelos de proyección. Hasta la tarde de hoy permanecia la misma tendencia ubicando el paso de este sistema al este de las Islas Vírgenes entre la noche del sábado y el domingo. La distancia aún es incierta lo que nos obliga a mantenernos atentos y con un pronóstico de lluvias para la región entre la noche del sábado al lunes. Vientos cortantes han provocado un proceso lento de organización de esta onda tropical y han concentrado su parte más activa al este.

Es importante estar atentos a los boletines esta noche y mañanaya que podrían estarse emitiendo avisos y vigilancias de tormenta para varias Islas del Caribe incluyendo las Islas Virgenes. La cantidad de lluvia para la Isla aún no se puede estimar debido a la incertidumbre con la distancia de su paso y su posible organización. De todos modos podemos esperar condiciones muy inestables desde el sábado en la tarde, ventosas y fuerte oleaje en las costas sureste, este y norte.

Deborah Martorell

Meteoróloga
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 60 Comments: 1011
En Martinique la pluie n’arrête pas de tomber !!

Vigilance Orange pour risque d'inondations

Very bad

http://www.cgste.mq/donneesMeteo/index.php



Météo France
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54616
226. SLU
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I haven't seen much in the way of straight west winds, but judging by the satellite and recon, I'm going to guess a special advisory for Tropical Storm Rafael or Tropical Depression 17 soon. Watch for a renumber.


The named EMILY last year in that same location with just a couple westerly wind barbs. What we have now is enough to call this a TS.
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225. Skyepony (Mod)


TRMM 3B42 Rain Rates (shaded) overlaid with 200 hPa Velocity Potential Anomalies (contoured)
Negative 200 hPa Velocity Potential Anomalies (Divergence) are cool-colored contours
Positive 200 hPa Velocity Potential Anomalies (Convergence) are warm-colored contours
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting allancalderini:
It is raining in your place cariboy?


We had a few squalls today as the weather has been gradually deteriorating. I've also heard the thunder from time to time, and more recently half an hour ago. Winds where are also pretty strong this morning til mid afternoon, then they calmed down (at least at my house.. so maybe be it is still blowing in the exposed areas). Seas have been building too.

Right now the rain is falling lightly and the sky is overcast.

Weather is finally getting interesting in the N Leewards... but still hope more lol.

Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6254
I haven't seen much in the way of straight west winds, but judging by the satellite and recon, I'm going to guess a special advisory for Tropical Storm Rafael or Tropical Depression 17 soon. Watch for a renumber.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 6:00 PM EDT Friday 12 October 2012
Condition: Mainly Sunny
Pressure: 30.41 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 2

Temperature: 44.6F
Dewpoint: 19.8F
Humidity: 37 %
Wind: N 9 mph



gonna be a cold night for sure already below 45F
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54616
Recon found a much better defined circulation (southern side at least) this pass. Expect Tropical Storm Rafael over the next few hours.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32335
Quoting CaribBoy:


not yet
It is raining in your place cariboy?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4410
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54616
218. SLU
Still looks like a very broad center about 110 miles west of Martinique but the overall circulation is closed so that's good enough to be called a TS in my books.
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T.C.F.A.
98L/INV/XX/XX
MARK
15.25N/59.65W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54616
Quoting CaribBoy:


not yet
soon
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 60 Comments: 1011
Quoting Grothar:
I thought the Doc said this would dissipate by Friday afternoon. Look, there are still clouds there.



are they spinning clouds
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54616
Quoting avthunder:
Do we have Rafael?


not yet
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6254

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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