Patty little threat to the Bahamas; 98L close to tropical storm status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on October 12, 2012

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Tropical Storm Patty formed late yesterday afternoon just east of the Central Bahama Islands. Patty is the sixteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, putting this year in a tie for eighth place for busiest Atlantic season since record keeping began in 1851. Patty isn't going to be around for long, though. Satellite loops show a very sickly storm, with the low-level circulation center exposed to view, and the storm's heavy thunderstorm all pushed to the northeast side of the center of circulation due to strong upper-level winds out of the southwest creating a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. An approaching cold front is dumping dry, stable air into Patty, and the cold front and high shear will likely destroy the storm by Saturday evening. Patty will likely have a minimal impact on the Bahamas. The storm has brought a few sporadic heavy rain showers to the Southeast Bahama Islands this morning, and this activity may continue through Saturday morning. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on its way to Patty, and will be there early this afternoon.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression 16 taken at 11:16 am EDT Thursday, October 11, 2012. At the time, TD 16 had 35 mph winds, and was named Tropical Storm Patty six hours later. Image credit: NASA.

98L bringing heavy rain, high winds to Lesser Antilles
A strong tropical wave (Invest 98L) is bringing tropical-storm force winds and heavy rains to the Lesser Antilles this morning. At 9 am local time, winds at Barbados's Grantly Adams Airport hit a sustained 39 mph, which is minimum tropical storm-force. Wind gusts as high as 47 mph were observed on Barbados this morning. A pass from the Windsat satellite at 12:38 am EDT found that 98L had top winds of 35 mph near 17°N latitude, a few hundred miles east of Antigua. The storm is headed north-northwest to northwest at about 10 - 15 mph, and will bring tropical storm conditions to much of the Lesser Antilles Islands today and Saturday. The disturbance has plenty of spin and a large amount of moderately well-organized heavy thunderstorms, as seen on Martinique radar and satellite loops. An elongated, poorly-defined surface circulation is apparent just west of the central Lesser Antilles Islands, but satellite imagery and airport observations from the islands do not show the well-defined closed surface circulation needed for 98L to be classified as a tropical storm. An upper-level low centered a few hundred miles south of the eastern Dominican Republic is pumping dry air into the west side of 98L, and creating a high 15 - 30 knots of wind shear. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 98L this afternoon.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L over the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Forecast for 98L
Wind shear is predicted to diminish to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, tonight through Saturday night. Given 98L's current degree of organization, the forecast drop in wind shear, and a high degree of model support for development, NHC's 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook forecast of an 80% chance of development by Sunday morning for 98L looks reasonable. I expect 98L to be upgraded later today, and it will probably skip being classified as a tropical depression and immediately be named Tropical Storm Rafael. The models are pretty well clustered for the track of 98L, taking it north-northwest through the Lesser Antilles towards Bermuda. With most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms on its east side due to dry air to the west, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the eastern Dominican Republic are likely to see much weaker winds and less heavy rain than the Leeward Islands. The Leeward Islands can expect tropical storm conditions with occasional sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph today and Saturday as 98L moves through. The storm will make its closest pass to Bermuda on Tuesday morning, and it is possible that 98L will be capable of bringing tropical storm conditions to Bermuda. However, the track of 98L on Monday and Tuesday is rather uncertain, due to the possible interaction of the storm with the remnants of Tropical Storm Patty. 98L is not a threat to the U.S., though it could affect Newfoundland, Canada next week.

Jeff Masters

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313. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just a guess...but I think that they may shift westward some too. ;)


XD Yep, I still think the northward movement showed by the models is a little exaggerated.
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122330Z OCT 12
FM FWC-N
BT
UNCLAS
MSGID/FWC-N/OVLY2/0087/OCT
OVLY/ATL STORM 17L/121800Z2/OCT/1OF1/TROP STORM RAFAEL(17L)/METOC
TEXT/12//G/144200N1/0624200W4/S
TEXT/12//G/180000N9/0640000W0/S
TEXT/12//G/212400N9/0653600W0/S
TEXT/12//G/250000N7/0673000W6/S
TEXT/12//G/323000N8/0650000W1/S
TEXT/12//G/430000N7/0570000W2/S
LINE/6//G/144200N1/0624200W4/180000N9/0640000W0/2 12400N9/0653600W0
/250000N7/0673000W6/323000N8/0650000W1/430000N7/0 570000W2
ARC/0/G///144200N1/0624200W4/150NM/150NM
ARC/0/G///180000N9/0640000W0/120NM/120NM
ARC/0/G///212400N9/0653600W0/120NM/120NM
ARC/0/G///250000N7/0673000W6/120NM/120NM
TEXT/12//G/124200N9/0601200W9/TROP STORM RAFAEL
TEXT/12//G/114200N8/0601200W9/12 OCT 1800Z
TEXT/12//G/104200N7/0601200W9/MAX 35 KT
TEXT/12//G/094200N5/0601200W9/330 AT 10 KT
TEXT/12//G/084200N4/0601200W9/34 KT RADII SHOWN
TEXT/12//G/180000N9/0600000W6/1318Z MAX 40
TEXT/12//G/212400N9/0613600W6/1418Z MAX 50
TEXT/12//G/250000N7/0633000W2/1518Z MAX 55
TEXT/12//G/323000N8/0610000W7/1618Z MAX 55
TEXT/12//G/430000N7/0530000W8/1718Z MAX 50
ENDAT
BT
#0001
NNNN

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good afternoon/evening all.

I see that Rafael has just developed, and Patty weakened to a tropical depression. Rafael is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to northeastern Caribbean Islands for couple of days before it moves off to the open Atlantic and possibly threaten Bermuda. Patty will likely become a remnant low soon.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
It will be interesting to see how the models adjust, Rafa is a little to the west of them.


Just a guess...but I think that they may shift westward some too. ;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
T.C.F.W.
17L CYCLONE STORM R
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
308. JLPR2
It will be interesting to see how the models adjust, Rafa is a little to the west of them.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening everyone, I see there is some severe weather ongoing and TS Rafael has formed.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
Quoting JRRP:

pzzz oleeeee ombre
Rafael, yO SOY AQUEL (I'm the one").. Who knows Rafy,,you might be the one,,hopefully not,and stay weak....
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 774
It's going to be very hard NOT to get at least one more named storm this season with an MJO pulse this strong.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
Quoting allancalderini:
the center will pass very near Cariboy his wish has come true it looks.


:))))))))))))
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting popartpete:
This is the 17th named storm. Early in the season they said it would be quiet. There have been a lot of named storms, but a lot of them were wimpy (Helene, Patty). There was only one major hurricane. Nadine puts the ACE higher because of her LONG life. It is an unusual season.
It's not as bad as last year, when we had 9 storms with ACEs under 2. This year, we only have had 6.

Fun fact: According to the ATCF, 98L has not been officially renumbered.
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 436
AT 710 PM CDT...TRAINED STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES EAST OF HALE CENTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH. ADDITIONAL TORNADIC ACTIVITY CAN OCCUR AT ANY TIME.

I don't know if I would do nighttime tornado chasing.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 94 Comments: 9611
301. GTcooliebai
12:23 AM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Spotters have confirmed a tornado on that storm. Must be a great one to chase since it's over very open areas.
I'm thinking it is still daylight over there to see it.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
300. MAweatherboy1
12:19 AM GMT on October 13, 2012
Spotters have confirmed a tornado on that storm. Must be a great one to chase since it's over very open areas.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7564
299. popartpete
12:17 AM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting Dakster:
Where are we now in the Storm count as far as the record books are concerned?
This is the 17th named storm. Early in the season they said it would be quiet. There have been a lot of named storms, but a lot of them were wimpy (Helene, Patty). There was only one major hurricane. Nadine puts the ACE higher because of her LONG life. It is an unusual season.
Member Since: July 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 418
298. MAweatherboy1
12:16 AM GMT on October 13, 2012
This has been a very interesting storm to watch. This image is from a little under an hour ago, showing one storm with one severe t'storm warning on it:



This was taken about half an hour ago. Notice now there's two severe t'storm warnings on two distinct storms with the bottom one showing signs of rotation:



This is the latest image, showing a complete separation of the two storms with the top one getting a severe t'storm warning and the bottom one, with a well defined hook echo, getting a tornado warning:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7564
297. Thing342
12:15 AM GMT on October 13, 2012
Rafael is only the fifth R storm ever, after Roxanne (1995), Rita (2005), Richard (2010), and Rina (2011). All but Richard became major hurricanes. (Richard was a 2)
Member Since: August 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 436
296. CybrTeddy
12:13 AM GMT on October 13, 2012
The top 5 most active Atlantic hurricane seasons.

1. 2005 (28)
2. 1933 (21)
3. 2010, 2011, 1995, 1887 (19)
4. 1969 (18)
5. 2012 (17)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23484
295. GTcooliebai
12:13 AM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Look at this beast.

So looks like the severe weather threat you alluded to a couple days ago is coming to pass. Hope everyone in the path has their weather radio on.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
294. SLU
12:12 AM GMT on October 13, 2012
17-8-1 ... lets see if we can make it to 19 named storms in 3 consecutive years.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4784
293. Barefootontherocks
12:12 AM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Look at this beast.

All right. Gonna cockaroach that image for my blog. Glad you guys are watching.

Ps. Thanks.
:)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 150 Comments: 18243
292. Barefootontherocks
12:10 AM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting evilpenguinshan:
yikes. that southern cell is scary lookin. right-turning. i'd be in the basement if I was nearby.





There ya go!

Low risk of EF2 and above. Mode for low end tors.

Impulses from the "California low" are just starting to reach the southern and central plains.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 150 Comments: 18243
291. JRRP
12:10 AM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting lordhuracan01:
RAFAEL

DE ESPANA



pzzz oleeeee ombre
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5231
290. Neapolitan
12:10 AM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting angelafritz:
Hi everyone, I just launched an ACE page. Let me know if you have any suggestions. I have a few improvements on the list for the next month or so but I'm totally open to feedback, as always.
Excellent, Angela. Lots of easy-to-digest stats and figures, which I for one greatly appreciate.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
One graphic I like is a pie chart which shows the ACE for each storm for the current year.
Like this?

2012

Or any of these?

2012

2012

2012

2012
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13441
289. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:09 AM GMT on October 13, 2012
Look at this beast.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
288. Astrometeor
12:08 AM GMT on October 13, 2012


radar image of North Lubbock cell
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 94 Comments: 9611
287. allancalderini
12:08 AM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
the center will pass very near Cariboy his wish has come true it looks.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3950
286. Barefootontherocks
12:08 AM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Looks pretty interesting.



Could be a bigger event for some tomorrow.
Thanks. Looked to me like it just split.

True about tomorrow. Tonight's just getting started. Moderate risk of low end tors in that watch.

Muggy, Spring-like here in central Oklahoma, and tomorrow will probably have a dryline-type setup.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 150 Comments: 18243
285. GTcooliebai
12:07 AM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting allancalderini:
17 name storms I think we could reach 19 or even 20 just saying.
I agree mainly because of the lack of EL Nino that would usually result in an abrupt end to the season. I think we will even see a storm and perhaps a strong one even in November.

By the way Rafael is a sheared tropical storm, east heavy. And with the formation of Rafael that brings the seasons total to 17 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
284. MAweatherboy1
12:07 AM GMT on October 13, 2012
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
705 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LUBBOCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN FLOYD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.
EASTERN HALE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS.

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 701 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE MOST
DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER HALE COUNTY...OR
ABOUT 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HALE CENTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
EASTERN HALE AND WESTERN FLOYD COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY TIME...TAKE COVER NOW! ABANDON MOBILE HOMES
AND VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. AVOID WINDOWS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AT 8067451290.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING
FOR THE PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3416 10162 3406 10128 3388 10171 3401 10186
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 211DEG 28KT 3401 10175

$$

05
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7564
283. evilpenguinshan
12:03 AM GMT on October 13, 2012
yikes. that southern cell is scary lookin. right-turning. i'd be in the basement if I was nearby.





Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Good evening. Excuse me. Just thought I 'd mention the tor watch.

Anyone on the cell N of Lubbock?

Member Since: March 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 506
282. MAweatherboy1
12:02 AM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Good evening. Excuse me. Just thought I 'd mention the tor watch.

Anyone on the cell N of Lubbock?


Looks pretty interesting.



Could be a bigger event for some tomorrow.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7564
281. lordhuracan01
12:01 AM GMT on October 13, 2012
RAFAEL

DE ESPANA


Member Since: August 11, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 244
280. Barefootontherocks
12:01 AM GMT on October 13, 2012
Good evening. Excuse me. Just thought I 'd mention the tor watch.

Anyone on the cell N of Lubbock? (Add: Hmmm. Looks like it just split.)

Click image for watch details.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 150 Comments: 18243
279. Dakster
12:00 AM GMT on October 13, 2012
Rafael has decided to book a vacation to Bermuda it seems.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10020
278. Skyepony (Mod)
12:00 AM GMT on October 13, 2012
Quoting angelafritz:
Hi everyone, I just launched an ACE page. Let me know if you have any suggestions. I have a few improvements on the list for the next month or so but I'm totally open to feedback, as always.


I like it. How do I find it again?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 160 Comments: 37148
277. allancalderini
12:00 AM GMT on October 13, 2012
17 name storms I think we could reach 19 or even 20 just saying.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3950
276. MAweatherboy1
11:59 PM GMT on October 12, 2012
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7564
275. CybrTeddy
11:57 PM GMT on October 12, 2012
Introducing our 17th named storm of the season, Rafael.
..LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BECOMES TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL...
7:30 PM AST Fri Oct 12
Location: 15.0°N 63.1°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23484
274. MAweatherboy1
11:57 PM GMT on October 12, 2012
Quoting evilpenguinshan:
wow...a southern hemisphere storm in October? Wouldn't that be like a April storm in the North? I know that's a huge stretch of open water, but dang, that seems crazy.




Southern Indian season officially beings Nov. 15, so yeah, a storm out there at this time would be like a late April storm in the Atlantic. It looks really good right now too, very possible it reaches hurricane equivalent status.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7564
273. evilpenguinshan
11:55 PM GMT on October 12, 2012
wow...a southern hemisphere storm in October? Wouldn't that be like a April storm in the North? I know that's a huge stretch of open water, but dang, that seems crazy.



Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Cyclone 1S:

Member Since: March 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 506
272. wxchaser97
11:54 PM GMT on October 12, 2012
TS Rafael is here with 40mph winds.

...LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BECOMES TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL...
7:30 PM AST Fri Oct 12
Location: 15.0°N 63.1°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2330Z 15.0N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 16.2N 63.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 18.0N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 19.6N 64.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 21.4N 65.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 25.0N 67.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 32.5N 65.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 43.0N 57.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
271. allancalderini
11:54 PM GMT on October 12, 2012
Rafael is here.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3950
270. Dakster
11:52 PM GMT on October 12, 2012
Where are we now in the Storm count as far as the record books are concerned?
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10020
269. WeatherNerdPR
11:51 PM GMT on October 12, 2012
17-8-1

...LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BECOMES TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL...
7:30 PM AST Fri Oct 12
Location: 15.0°N 63.1°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph  
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5618
268. PRweathercenter
11:51 PM GMT on October 12, 2012

Tropical Storm RAFAEL Forecast Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Wind Probs Archive

000
WTNT22 KNHC 122349
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
2330 UTC FRI OCT 12 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U. S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE ISLANDS OF SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST.
MARTIN...GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE...AND
MARTINIQUE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 63.1W AT 12/2330Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 63.1W AT 12/2330Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 62.7W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.2N 63.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.6N 64.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 21.4N 65.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.0N 67.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 32.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 43.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 63.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 60 Comments: 1011
267. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:51 PM GMT on October 12, 2012
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
730 PM AST FRI OCT 12 2012

...LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BECOMES TROPICAL
STORM RAFAEL...


SUMMARY OF 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 63.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314
266. PRweathercenter
11:50 PM GMT on October 12, 2012
rafeal is born!!!
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 60 Comments: 1011
265. evilpenguinshan
11:47 PM GMT on October 12, 2012
you can view the map at Tropical Atlantic(google earth plug-in required, it's free from Google)

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Can you make that more bigger as I can't see clearly the mission tracks.
Member Since: March 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 506
264. Angela Fritz , Atmospheric Scientist (Admin)
11:40 PM GMT on October 12, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That explains it. We go off the operational advisories.


Yep.

Mine could change at some point. Im considering using our WU archive which would give me a lot more information than best track, especially for older storms.

Thanks for checking it out!
263. TropicalAnalystwx13
11:36 PM GMT on October 12, 2012
Quoting angelafritz:


The ones on Wikipedia are using odd update times, like 03Z ans 21Z. Im using the standard 00, 06, 12, and 18Z updates. They are from the best track files.

Also, one thing we included that other sources don't is subtropical systems.

That explains it. We go off the operational advisories.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31314

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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