Patty little threat to the Bahamas; 98L close to tropical storm status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on October 12, 2012

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Tropical Storm Patty formed late yesterday afternoon just east of the Central Bahama Islands. Patty is the sixteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, putting this year in a tie for eighth place for busiest Atlantic season since record keeping began in 1851. Patty isn't going to be around for long, though. Satellite loops show a very sickly storm, with the low-level circulation center exposed to view, and the storm's heavy thunderstorm all pushed to the northeast side of the center of circulation due to strong upper-level winds out of the southwest creating a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. An approaching cold front is dumping dry, stable air into Patty, and the cold front and high shear will likely destroy the storm by Saturday evening. Patty will likely have a minimal impact on the Bahamas. The storm has brought a few sporadic heavy rain showers to the Southeast Bahama Islands this morning, and this activity may continue through Saturday morning. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on its way to Patty, and will be there early this afternoon.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression 16 taken at 11:16 am EDT Thursday, October 11, 2012. At the time, TD 16 had 35 mph winds, and was named Tropical Storm Patty six hours later. Image credit: NASA.

98L bringing heavy rain, high winds to Lesser Antilles
A strong tropical wave (Invest 98L) is bringing tropical-storm force winds and heavy rains to the Lesser Antilles this morning. At 9 am local time, winds at Barbados's Grantly Adams Airport hit a sustained 39 mph, which is minimum tropical storm-force. Wind gusts as high as 47 mph were observed on Barbados this morning. A pass from the Windsat satellite at 12:38 am EDT found that 98L had top winds of 35 mph near 17°N latitude, a few hundred miles east of Antigua. The storm is headed north-northwest to northwest at about 10 - 15 mph, and will bring tropical storm conditions to much of the Lesser Antilles Islands today and Saturday. The disturbance has plenty of spin and a large amount of moderately well-organized heavy thunderstorms, as seen on Martinique radar and satellite loops. An elongated, poorly-defined surface circulation is apparent just west of the central Lesser Antilles Islands, but satellite imagery and airport observations from the islands do not show the well-defined closed surface circulation needed for 98L to be classified as a tropical storm. An upper-level low centered a few hundred miles south of the eastern Dominican Republic is pumping dry air into the west side of 98L, and creating a high 15 - 30 knots of wind shear. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 98L this afternoon.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L over the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Forecast for 98L
Wind shear is predicted to diminish to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, tonight through Saturday night. Given 98L's current degree of organization, the forecast drop in wind shear, and a high degree of model support for development, NHC's 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook forecast of an 80% chance of development by Sunday morning for 98L looks reasonable. I expect 98L to be upgraded later today, and it will probably skip being classified as a tropical depression and immediately be named Tropical Storm Rafael. The models are pretty well clustered for the track of 98L, taking it north-northwest through the Lesser Antilles towards Bermuda. With most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms on its east side due to dry air to the west, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the eastern Dominican Republic are likely to see much weaker winds and less heavy rain than the Leeward Islands. The Leeward Islands can expect tropical storm conditions with occasional sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph today and Saturday as 98L moves through. The storm will make its closest pass to Bermuda on Tuesday morning, and it is possible that 98L will be capable of bringing tropical storm conditions to Bermuda. However, the track of 98L on Monday and Tuesday is rather uncertain, due to the possible interaction of the storm with the remnants of Tropical Storm Patty. 98L is not a threat to the U.S., though it could affect Newfoundland, Canada next week.

Jeff Masters

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 12 2012

...RAFAEL SPREADING HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 63.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM W OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
Quoting avthunder:
Seems to be a bit further west; looks like CONUS is safe, but I wonder about DR and Bahamas.

I have heard talk of it merging with a frontal boundry and hitting me with heavy rain. U think thats in the cards?
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Quoting SLU:


Any flooding from the afternoon thunderstorms?

I was in town from 3:00, and got back here at about 9:00.
No sign of any flooding in Central but I heard they had some in the east (Maloney, Arima).

Heavy rain in St. Augustine. ??
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Quoting AztecCe:
That's Madagascar, right?


Yes it is, as others have said, a bit early in the year to be seeing a storm in that particular basin.
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I see i missed out on some impressive supercells this afternoon, still one going though

From earlier today:
Brad Panovich8:33 PM - Public
Tornado warning in the Texas panhandle. Impressive HP supercell. #txwx #tornado

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Quoting Astrometeor:


This is forecast for Tropical Cyclone One in the Indian Ocean.
That's Madagascar, right?
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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1960
356. SLU
Quoting pottery:

I'm watching that too.
Nice.


Any flooding from the afternoon thunderstorms?
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5356
Quoting SLU:


it's racing towards TnT also ... attractive lightning show in the south

I'm watching that too.
Nice.
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354. SLU
Quoting pottery:
BAH !!

I don't like what's setting up over Venezuela and coming this way.
Plenty distant flashes reflecting off the cloud-deck from the south.
The rainbow loops and WV loops show some heavy stuff moving this way.


it's racing towards TnT also ... attractive lightning show in the south
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5356
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


??What?... you don't have politicians there?

; )

heheheheh.
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Typhoon Prapiroon
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Quoting pottery:

Yeah, ......
Hopefully no wind.

we don't do wind too good, down here.....


??What?... you don't have politicians there?

; )
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6065
Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

already farther W than expected....
Seems to be a bit further west; looks like CONUS is safe, but I wonder about DR and Bahamas.
Member Since: August 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 339
Raphael is one BIG storm.
The size of the GOM, he is.
We better hope he does not start to spin-up too quickly.....
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Quoting pottery:

Yeah, we could get some heavy stuff before dawn and into tomorrow.
Hopefully no wind.

we don't do wind too good, down here.....
Stay safe ! Some heavy stuff still to come.
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Anyhow, its going to be a rainy event for us the whole weekend....

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Rafael would be moving more to the west, following that ULL that has been shearing him. But noticed that the ULL has been stopped by that trough coming down from GOM into Cuba.... Let's see if it stays east of us....

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Looks like the worst is yet to come.

Yeah, we could get some heavy stuff before dawn and into tomorrow.
Hopefully no wind.

we don't do wind too good, down here.....
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Quoting avthunder:
I was wondering the same thing. Would be interested in some updated models now that it is a storm. They tend to be off more when just an invest. Imagery seems to suggest it would have to move almost due north to miss Hispaniola, yet no warnings there - that I know of.

already farther W than expected....
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Patty shouldn't be a tropical depression for much longer after tonight. I will be having a very wet and stormy weekend with even possible severe weather. Everyone that is expected to get severe weather stay safe. I am currently writing a blog on tropical and severe weather and I will have it ready in a couple hoursish. Also the pep rally at school today made me hyped up for the wrong game, not my HS game but the UoM game. If only I was going there tomorrow.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Is Rafael really moving NNW?
I was wondering the same thing. Would be interested in some updated models now that it is a storm. They tend to be off more when just an invest. Imagery seems to suggest it would have to move almost due north to miss Hispaniola, yet no warnings there - that I know of.
Member Since: August 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 339
lol so they say it going to be 73 as a low but it 71 now lol
and Wind from the N at 12MPH!!
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Quoting pottery:
BAH !!

I don't like what's setting up over Venezuela and coming this way.
Plenty distant flashes reflecting off the cloud-deck from the south.
The rainbow loops and WV loops show some heavy stuff moving this way.
Looks like the worst is yet to come.
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This is forecast for Tropical Cyclone One in the Indian Ocean.
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BAH !!

I don't like what's setting up over Venezuela and coming this way.
Plenty distant flashes reflecting off the cloud-deck from the south.
The rainbow loops and WV loops show some heavy stuff moving this way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
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Good evening.

I was out since 3:00pm and just got in.
Raphael, eh ?

3" in the gauge and signs that we got some strong squally winds from the south.

Loads of lightening still, in the S/W constantly.

Need to go and look at some loops to see what's coming.
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Quoting JRRP:

no... to me is WNW or NO
Link

vamos a ver si esta vez tenemos la misma suerte!!!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just a guess...but I think that they may shift westward some too. ;)

yeap
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It's not often you get a hurricane over a month before the season officially begins but I think that's what we're about to see here:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7948
Finally its raining so hard that it makes me remember when I was young and rain like this.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4458
if i'm correct that im seeing a decent looking twave in the far eastern atlantic it too is also at a low latitude... if it can keeps its convection might possible develop a low.
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Quoting Astrometeor:


radar image of North Lubbock cell
Thanks for replying to my comment.
Quoting Astrometeor:
AT 710 PM CDT...TRAINED STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 7 MILES EAST OF HALE CENTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH. ADDITIONAL TORNADIC ACTIVITY CAN OCCUR AT ANY TIME.

I don't know if I would do nighttime tornado chasing.
Also some 70 mph wind and 2.75" hail reported up that way. Tor report not up yet. This graphic will update until 7 a.m. Saturday. Click graphic for text reports.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

The Raw T#, a good indicator of short term intensity fluctuations, has responded to that little burst of convection as it is up to a 3.1. If that convection falls apart though than she really won't qualify as tropical anymore and will be a remnant low.


Agreed.
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Quoting Civicane49:


There is a recent burst of convection in the northeast of the center, which is currently partially exposed. If the convection does not persist very near to the center for more than several hours, then it would very likely become a remnant low. However, I would not be surprised if Patty becomes a remnant low sooner than it is forecasted.


The Raw T#, a good indicator of short term intensity fluctuations, has responded to that little burst of convection as it is up to a 3.1. If that convection falls apart though than she really won't qualify as tropical anymore and will be a remnant low.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7948
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Quoting allancalderini:
I think she is one already.


There is a recent burst of convection in the northeast of the center, which is currently partially exposed. If the convection does not persist very near to the center for more than several hours, then it would very likely become a remnant low. However, I would not be surprised if Patty becomes a remnant low sooner than it is forecasted.

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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
323. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #65
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
9:00 AM JST October 13 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 20.7N 129.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 21.5N 130.5E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
45 HRS: 22.2N 130.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
69 HRS: 23.0N 130.5E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
322. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 01-20122013
4:30 AM RET October 13 2012
==========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 8.8S 70.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 with gusts of 45. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/12HRS

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 10.4S 66.6E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 11.6S 63.7E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 12.7S 60.8E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
======================

For the latest hours, cloud tops are clearly cooling and convection has re-organized. The system keeps on tracking west southwestward to southwestward, on the northern edge of the subtropical low-mid level high pressures.

Environmental conditions are fairly favorable with good low level inflow and weak to moderate east northeasterly wind shear (cf CIMSS data), system being located beneath the western extremity of an upper level ridge. Currently, heat ocean content is favorable (Sea surface temperature around 27C),

Within the next days, system is expected to keep on tracking regularly west southwestward under the steering influence of the northwestern edge of the subtropical high pressures. Upper level environmental conditions should few evolve. System is expected to stay beneath the western edge of the ridge. Monday seems to be the most favorable day for intensification, but uncertainty is high enough for maximum intensity expected.

On and after 72 hours, system is expected to encounter cooler sea surface temperatures and undergoing strengthening upper level wind shear it should fairly quickly weaken.
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Quoting PRweathercenter:
Blog
Update



Link



Tropical Storm Rafael


Nice blog update Dave..
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Quoting Civicane49:
Good afternoon/evening all.

I see that Rafael has just developed, and Patty weakened to a tropical depression. Rafael is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to northeastern Caribbean Islands for couple of days before it moves off to the open Atlantic and possibly threaten Bermuda. Patty will likely become a remnant low soon.

I think she is one already.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4458
Moving NW at 310 degrees.

WHXX01 KWBC 130041
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0041 UTC SAT OCT 13 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE RAFAEL (AL172012) 20121013 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
121013 0000 121013 1200 121014 0000 121014 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.0N 63.2W 16.0N 64.8W 16.9N 66.2W 17.4N 67.1W
BAMD 15.0N 63.2W 16.8N 64.3W 18.5N 65.4W 19.6N 66.4W
BAMM 15.0N 63.2W 16.2N 64.6W 17.3N 65.7W 18.0N 66.5W
LBAR 15.0N 63.2W 17.0N 64.4W 18.7N 65.4W 20.4N 66.2W
SHIP 35KTS 36KTS 41KTS 50KTS
DSHP 35KTS 36KTS 41KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
121015 0000 121016 0000 121017 0000 121018 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.0N 67.5W 21.5N 66.9W 27.5N 63.2W 34.2N 56.6W
BAMD 20.6N 67.3W 23.9N 67.5W 31.0N 62.9W 41.9N 51.0W
BAMM 18.9N 66.8W 22.4N 66.4W 29.2N 62.2W 37.8N 53.6W
LBAR 21.6N 67.3W 24.1N 68.7W 29.8N 67.4W 36.4N 56.1W
SHIP 57KTS 64KTS 64KTS 60KTS
DSHP 57KTS 64KTS 64KTS 60KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.0N LONCUR = 63.2W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 14.3N LONM12 = 61.5W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.7N LONM24 = 59.0W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 150NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14567
Blog
Update



Link



Tropical Storm Rafael
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 60 Comments: 1011
317. JRRP
Quoting stormpetrol:
Is Rafael really moving NNW?

no... to me is WNW or NO
Link
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Is Rafael really moving NNW?
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8018
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Rafael, yO SOY AQUEL (I'm the one").. Who knows Rafy,,you might be the one,,hopefully not,and stay weak....


eso espero yo tambien....aunque Rafa no me da esa confianza.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Excellent, Angela. Lots of easy-to-digest stats and figures, which I for one greatly appreciate.Like this?

2012

Or any of these?

2012

2012

2012

2012

What program do you use to make these? They're cool.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32528
313. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just a guess...but I think that they may shift westward some too. ;)


XD Yep, I still think the northward movement showed by the models is a little exaggerated.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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