Patty little threat to the Bahamas; 98L close to tropical storm status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on October 12, 2012

Share this Blog
39
+

Tropical Storm Patty formed late yesterday afternoon just east of the Central Bahama Islands. Patty is the sixteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, putting this year in a tie for eighth place for busiest Atlantic season since record keeping began in 1851. Patty isn't going to be around for long, though. Satellite loops show a very sickly storm, with the low-level circulation center exposed to view, and the storm's heavy thunderstorm all pushed to the northeast side of the center of circulation due to strong upper-level winds out of the southwest creating a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. An approaching cold front is dumping dry, stable air into Patty, and the cold front and high shear will likely destroy the storm by Saturday evening. Patty will likely have a minimal impact on the Bahamas. The storm has brought a few sporadic heavy rain showers to the Southeast Bahama Islands this morning, and this activity may continue through Saturday morning. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on its way to Patty, and will be there early this afternoon.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression 16 taken at 11:16 am EDT Thursday, October 11, 2012. At the time, TD 16 had 35 mph winds, and was named Tropical Storm Patty six hours later. Image credit: NASA.

98L bringing heavy rain, high winds to Lesser Antilles
A strong tropical wave (Invest 98L) is bringing tropical-storm force winds and heavy rains to the Lesser Antilles this morning. At 9 am local time, winds at Barbados's Grantly Adams Airport hit a sustained 39 mph, which is minimum tropical storm-force. Wind gusts as high as 47 mph were observed on Barbados this morning. A pass from the Windsat satellite at 12:38 am EDT found that 98L had top winds of 35 mph near 17°N latitude, a few hundred miles east of Antigua. The storm is headed north-northwest to northwest at about 10 - 15 mph, and will bring tropical storm conditions to much of the Lesser Antilles Islands today and Saturday. The disturbance has plenty of spin and a large amount of moderately well-organized heavy thunderstorms, as seen on Martinique radar and satellite loops. An elongated, poorly-defined surface circulation is apparent just west of the central Lesser Antilles Islands, but satellite imagery and airport observations from the islands do not show the well-defined closed surface circulation needed for 98L to be classified as a tropical storm. An upper-level low centered a few hundred miles south of the eastern Dominican Republic is pumping dry air into the west side of 98L, and creating a high 15 - 30 knots of wind shear. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 98L this afternoon.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L over the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Forecast for 98L
Wind shear is predicted to diminish to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, tonight through Saturday night. Given 98L's current degree of organization, the forecast drop in wind shear, and a high degree of model support for development, NHC's 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook forecast of an 80% chance of development by Sunday morning for 98L looks reasonable. I expect 98L to be upgraded later today, and it will probably skip being classified as a tropical depression and immediately be named Tropical Storm Rafael. The models are pretty well clustered for the track of 98L, taking it north-northwest through the Lesser Antilles towards Bermuda. With most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms on its east side due to dry air to the west, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the eastern Dominican Republic are likely to see much weaker winds and less heavy rain than the Leeward Islands. The Leeward Islands can expect tropical storm conditions with occasional sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph today and Saturday as 98L moves through. The storm will make its closest pass to Bermuda on Tuesday morning, and it is possible that 98L will be capable of bringing tropical storm conditions to Bermuda. However, the track of 98L on Monday and Tuesday is rather uncertain, due to the possible interaction of the storm with the remnants of Tropical Storm Patty. 98L is not a threat to the U.S., though it could affect Newfoundland, Canada next week.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 413 - 363

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12Blog Index

looks as if event commence has begun

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Models have shifted more to the west on the remnants of Patty.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like the ULL began moving NE. That would diminish the shearing and leave Rafael behind...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just for the record, here's the TS force wind probability graphic for 120hr. on ex-Patti courtesy of the NHC in the 8PMEST update.
.
.Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Angela, you are very active, like the season!!!!
Member Since: August 11, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 244
407. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting angelafritz:


I've added it to the Archive module for now (right side main Tropical page), under "Historical Hurricane Statistics."


That's a good place for it..


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
406. DDR
Quoting SLU:


Plus the northward motion of Raphael will cause it to suck loads of moisture from Venezuela and over Trinidad on its way up the islands.

Thats exactly my thinking.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting angelafritz:


I've added it to the Archive module for now (right side main Tropical page), under "Historical Hurricane Statistics."


Thanks! I love having that info easily available right here without having to google for it. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
404. Skyepony (Mod)
Nice cloudsat of 01S. Click on 15 & 16 here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
403. angelafritz (Admin)
Quoting Skyepony:
I bookmarked it for now. Thanks!



I've added it to the Archive module for now (right side main Tropical page), under "Historical Hurricane Statistics."
402. Skyepony (Mod)
Beautiful Cloudsat of RAFEAL. The big blobs have tended tall this season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
401. Skyepony (Mod)
ASCAT of Patty.


Quoting angelafritz:


Right now it's an orphan. I will find a good place for it soon.


I bookmarked it for now. Thanks!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
400. angelafritz (Admin)
Quoting Skyepony:


I like it. How do I find it again?


Right now it's an orphan. I will find a good place for it soon.
399. angelafritz (Admin)
Quoting Neapolitan:
Excellent, Angela. Lots of easy-to-digest stats and figures, which I for one greatly appreciate.Like this?


Im planning on adding both the pie and the year-to-date images. The YTD ones require me to reorganize the data a bit.

Very nice graphics (as usual!).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
397. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #11
TYPHOON NINA (PRAPIROON)
11:00 AM PhST October 13 2012
========================================

Typhoon "NINA" has maintained its strength as it continues to move in a northeast direction

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Nina [967 hPa] located at 21.0°N 129.9°E or 735 km east of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast slowly.

Additional Information
=======================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon.

Typhoon "NINA" is still far to directly affect any part of the country.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the northern and western Seaboards of northern Luzon and the eastern Seaboard of Luzon and Visayas due to big waves generated by Typhoon "NINA".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44747
396. SLU
Quoting luigi18:

Is Funny !! the San Juan MC is saying" only 1 to 3 inches of rain no wind at all"

oh my Gosh!


Well if the center stays east of you then that's possible since most of the weather will be on the east side ....
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4859
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Love the fall. For the past week in the U.S. Record lows 1,963 to record highs 152.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here is how Cody's severe weather outbreak is doing:



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SLU:


Plus the northward motion of Raphael will cause it to suck loads of moisture from Venezuela and over Trinidad on its way up the islands.

Is Funny !! the San Juan MC is saying" only 1 to 3 inches of rain no wind at all"

oh my Gosh!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
391. SLU
Quoting luigi18:

be safe !we here in PR waiting for the blast!
Quoting DDR:

That blob is huge,biggest i've seen in years
Well we are used to these storms rolling of Vene and bringing squally weather.


Plus the northward motion of Raphael will cause it to suck loads of moisture from Venezuela and over Trinidad on its way up the islands.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4859
390. DDR
Quoting DDR:

That blob is huge,biggest i've seen in years
Well we are used to these storms rolling of Vene and bringing heavy rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:
Must. Post. Ninja turtle image.

Go right ahead. It's not like there will be any consequences or anything.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31463
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SLU:


Jump right in.

Looks like tomorrow's gonna be very interesting with that blob moving in from the mainland

be safe !we here in PR waiting for the blast!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
386. DDR
Quoting SLU:


Jump right in.

Looks like tomorrow's gonna be very interesting with that blob moving in from the mainland

That blob is huge,biggest i've seen in years
Well we are used to these storms rolling of Vene and bringing squally weather.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My goodness, Raphael looking a big sloppy mess! If it just brings good rain to Cariboy, all will be worthwhile LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I double Admin dare you.


I second this motion.

Meanwhile in the Northeast.:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
383. SLU
Quoting DDR:
Hey pottery, SLU
Mind if i join the party?


Jump right in.

Looks like tomorrow's gonna be very interesting with that blob moving in from the mainland
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4859
Quoting KoritheMan:
Must. Post. Ninja turtle image.


I double Admin dare you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
381. DDR
That is one wet mess over the islands,geez when last...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
380. DDR
I haven't bothered to watch the lightning show over Venezuela,the satellite imagery is more disturbing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
379. DDR
Quoting pottery:

I was in town from 3:00, and got back here at about 9:00.
No sign of any flooding in Central but I heard they had some in the east (Maloney, Arima).

Heavy rain in St. Augustine. ??

Rain fell heavy around 12-2pm up there,picked up 61mm at my location,2.4 inches...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
378. DDR
Hey pottery, SLU
Mind if i join the party?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oh hey. I checked at lunchtime (5PM, I work an afternoon to evening shift) and we had 98L, now I'm home and I see we have TS Raphael! Bout time!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Must. Post. Ninja turtle image.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
10/12/2012 Underwood, TX Tornado
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
374. SLU
So Patty has literally no movement tonight

11:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 12
Location: 25.4°N 72.1°W
Moving:
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4859
373. SLU
Quoting pottery:

I was in town from 3:00, and got back here at about 9:00.
No sign of any flooding in Central but I heard they had some in the east (Maloney, Arima).

Heavy rain in St. Augustine. ??


ummm .. periods of heavy outburst of rain with lots of thunder from the far east but nothing unusual here
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4859
372. 7544
Quoting pottery:

She is stuck where she is....


and shes not givin up yet a new burst going on the east
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5997
Quoting wxchaser97:
Someone forgot to put the movement in for Patty.

...PATTY MOVING LITTLE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...
11:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 12
Location: 25.4°N 72.1°W
Moving:
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

...RAFAEL SPREADING HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES... ...U.S. Warnings in Effect...
11:00 PM AST Fri Oct 12
Location: 15.4°N 63.4°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

She is stuck where she is....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Someone forgot to put the movement in for Patty.

...PATTY MOVING LITTLE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...
11:00 PM EDT Fri Oct 12
Location: 25.4°N 72.1°W
Moving:
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph

...RAFAEL SPREADING HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES... ...U.S. Warnings in Effect...
11:00 PM AST Fri Oct 12
Location: 15.4°N 63.4°W
Moving: NW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

DESPITE A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT A DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF PARTLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AND A RECENT UW-CIMSS AMSU-A
ESTIMATION. PATTY...HOWEVER...IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS OR SO AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY SPINS DOWN
AND DISSIPATES IN 2 DAYS.

PATTY HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...POSSIBLY AN ERRATIC
DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. PATTY SHOULD...HOWEVER...BEGIN A
GRADUAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW DURING THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE WEST ATLANTIC EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SIDES WITH THE
TVCA MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 25.4N 72.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 25.3N 72.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 24.7N 73.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/1200Z 23.9N 76.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...PATTY MOVING LITTLE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 72.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
365. JLPR2
The slight adjustment to the west is pretty obvious, not really bad for PR since the center and west sides of the storm are devoid of any significant convection, worse for the NE Lesser Antilles as the NE, E sides of the storm could pretty much pass over them.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 12 2012

RAFAEL HAS A RATHER DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS EVENING. THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS DUE TO 20-25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. LESS CONCENTRATED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THERE HAVE BEEN NO OBSERVATIONS OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES...BUT IT IS
LIKELY THAT SUCH WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE CONVECTIVE BAND EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 325/9. RAFAEL IS CURRENTLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND A MID/UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD STEER RAFAEL GENERALLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR...WITH THE CENTER PASSING
NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BRIEFLY BUILD NORTH OF RAFAEL AT
ABOUT 48 HR...WHICH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY BREAK DOWN AS A POWERFUL
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH
SHOULD RECURVE RAFAEL INTO THE WESTERLIES. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE ON THIS...THEY DIFFER ENOUGH ON THE DETAILS THAT THE GFS AND
CANDIAN SHOW A MUCH FASTER FORWARD MOTION AFTER RECURVATURE THAN
THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.
OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE OLD TRACK AND NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST 12 HR DUE TO
CONTINUED SHEAR. AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A
DECREASE IN SHEAR FROM 24-48 HR...WITH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
SHOWING INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
DURING THIS PERIOD IS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON INCREASING SHEAR AFTER 48 HR. DESPITE THIS...THE
GFDL...HWRF...AND SHIP MODELS FORECAST RAFAEL TO STRENGTHEN INTO A
HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL RELY MORE ON THE FORECAST
SHEAR AND SHOW ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT AFTER 48 HR. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN BY 120 HR AND LIKELY BE COMPLETE SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 15.4N 63.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 16.6N 63.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 18.4N 64.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 20.3N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 22.1N 66.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 26.0N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 34.5N 63.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 44.5N 55.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31463
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 12 2012

...RAFAEL SPREADING HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 63.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM W OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31463

Viewing: 413 - 363

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
66 °F
Overcast