Patty little threat to the Bahamas; 98L close to tropical storm status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on October 12, 2012

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Tropical Storm Patty formed late yesterday afternoon just east of the Central Bahama Islands. Patty is the sixteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, putting this year in a tie for eighth place for busiest Atlantic season since record keeping began in 1851. Patty isn't going to be around for long, though. Satellite loops show a very sickly storm, with the low-level circulation center exposed to view, and the storm's heavy thunderstorm all pushed to the northeast side of the center of circulation due to strong upper-level winds out of the southwest creating a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. An approaching cold front is dumping dry, stable air into Patty, and the cold front and high shear will likely destroy the storm by Saturday evening. Patty will likely have a minimal impact on the Bahamas. The storm has brought a few sporadic heavy rain showers to the Southeast Bahama Islands this morning, and this activity may continue through Saturday morning. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on its way to Patty, and will be there early this afternoon.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression 16 taken at 11:16 am EDT Thursday, October 11, 2012. At the time, TD 16 had 35 mph winds, and was named Tropical Storm Patty six hours later. Image credit: NASA.

98L bringing heavy rain, high winds to Lesser Antilles
A strong tropical wave (Invest 98L) is bringing tropical-storm force winds and heavy rains to the Lesser Antilles this morning. At 9 am local time, winds at Barbados's Grantly Adams Airport hit a sustained 39 mph, which is minimum tropical storm-force. Wind gusts as high as 47 mph were observed on Barbados this morning. A pass from the Windsat satellite at 12:38 am EDT found that 98L had top winds of 35 mph near 17°N latitude, a few hundred miles east of Antigua. The storm is headed north-northwest to northwest at about 10 - 15 mph, and will bring tropical storm conditions to much of the Lesser Antilles Islands today and Saturday. The disturbance has plenty of spin and a large amount of moderately well-organized heavy thunderstorms, as seen on Martinique radar and satellite loops. An elongated, poorly-defined surface circulation is apparent just west of the central Lesser Antilles Islands, but satellite imagery and airport observations from the islands do not show the well-defined closed surface circulation needed for 98L to be classified as a tropical storm. An upper-level low centered a few hundred miles south of the eastern Dominican Republic is pumping dry air into the west side of 98L, and creating a high 15 - 30 knots of wind shear. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 98L this afternoon.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L over the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Forecast for 98L
Wind shear is predicted to diminish to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, tonight through Saturday night. Given 98L's current degree of organization, the forecast drop in wind shear, and a high degree of model support for development, NHC's 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook forecast of an 80% chance of development by Sunday morning for 98L looks reasonable. I expect 98L to be upgraded later today, and it will probably skip being classified as a tropical depression and immediately be named Tropical Storm Rafael. The models are pretty well clustered for the track of 98L, taking it north-northwest through the Lesser Antilles towards Bermuda. With most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms on its east side due to dry air to the west, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the eastern Dominican Republic are likely to see much weaker winds and less heavy rain than the Leeward Islands. The Leeward Islands can expect tropical storm conditions with occasional sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph today and Saturday as 98L moves through. The storm will make its closest pass to Bermuda on Tuesday morning, and it is possible that 98L will be capable of bringing tropical storm conditions to Bermuda. However, the track of 98L on Monday and Tuesday is rather uncertain, due to the possible interaction of the storm with the remnants of Tropical Storm Patty. 98L is not a threat to the U.S., though it could affect Newfoundland, Canada next week.

Jeff Masters

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Good morning.

3" between 3:00pm and 9:00pm last evening, and another 1.5" overnight at my location in Trinidad.
Heavy overcast and drizzle for the past couple of hours.

Northern islands look to be under the heaviest convection today.
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Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 34 knots (~ 39.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 63 knots (~ 72.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 32 mm/hr (~ 1.26 in/hr)
Little old but lol
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 996.4 mb (~ 29.42 inHg)
That's right now
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422 sunlinepr: 26 killed, 60 fishermen missing in Bangladesh storm
439 AussieStorm: That was caused by the system that the IMD failed to classify even as a TD.

What else is new? The IndianMeteorologicalDepartment is synonymous with FAIL.
Near as I can tell, the JointTyphoonWarningCenter has to call a Cat.1 before the IMD will consider labeling the same system a TropicalDepression.
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Quoting Bobbyweather:

Isn't that too old? It's 12Z right now.

It's from a little while ago. The same plane thats out there now recieved that info.
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no character picked more than 2 more sept 10 they all thought my character was foolish by picking 4. so here we are for my character to take the big pot all we need is one more.
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Mid-South Severe Weather Climatology Study
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Quoting JRRP:

it look more west track than before
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Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
brrr


Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 1:00 AM EDT Saturday 13 October 2012
Condition: Clear
Pressure: 30.44 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 34.7�F
Dewpoint: 23.9�F
Humidity: 64 %
Wind: calm


Going to canadas wonderland today. Hopefully the cold scares away the people. :P
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Time: 07:06:30Z
Coordinates: 14.2167N 61.9167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.2 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,548 meters (~ 5,079 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1007.7 mb (~ 29.76 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 191° at 38 knots (From the S/SSW at ~ 43.7 mph)
Air Temp: 16.6°C (~ 61.9°F)
Dew Pt: 15.1°C (~ 59.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 42 knots (~ 48.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 11 mm/hr (~ 0.43 in/hr)
Is this reliable?

Isn't that too old? It's 12Z right now.
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For the TN/AL/MS/AR/MO/KY area:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Morning everybody.

Quoting JLPR2:
Rafael still disagrees with the models.


The last NHC cone has it a hair to my east.
I'm at 18.4N 66W
24H 14/0600Z 18.8N 65.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
I keep thinking the climatological track is through the Mona Passage and over eastern DR... I am waiting with interest to see if Raphael makes the northward shift as early has all the models keep insisting he will. So far I am not terribly convinced...
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Global temperature anomaly for September is 0.60C above the 1951-80 average, making it the 4th warmest September on record.

Link
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
LOL
14.4333N 61.95W
Acft. Static Air Press: 845.4 mb (~ 24.96 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,519 meters (~ 4,984 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 182° at 35 knots (From the S at ~ 40.2 mph)
Air Temp: 14.3°C* (~ 57.7°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 39 knots (~ 44.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 65 knots* (~ 74.8 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 42 mm/hr* (~ 1.65 in/hr*)

LOL!! Too bad it's rain-contaminated.
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IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SEASON IS ANYTHING BUT OVER!
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Time: 07:06:30Z
Coordinates: 14.2167N 61.9167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.2 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,548 meters (~ 5,079 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1007.7 mb (~ 29.76 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 191° at 38 knots (From the S/SSW at ~ 43.7 mph)
Air Temp: 16.6°C (~ 61.9°F)
Dew Pt: 15.1°C (~ 59.2°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 42 knots (~ 48.3 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 11 mm/hr (~ 0.43 in/hr)
Is this reliable?
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LOL
14.4333N 61.95W
Acft. Static Air Press: 845.4 mb (~ 24.96 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,519 meters (~ 4,984 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 182° at 35 knots (From the S at ~ 40.2 mph)
Air Temp: 14.3°C* (~ 57.7°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 39 knots (~ 44.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 65 knots* (~ 74.8 mph*)
SFMR Rain Rate: 42 mm/hr* (~ 1.65 in/hr*)
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This next system alternates between looking more dangerous shear-wise with a negative tilt, and being more vertical and not posing as much of a threat.
Either way it looks like it will not matter because of low moisture return leading to negligible CAPE, but in time that may or may not change


the SPC agrees with this for now, so as of right now its just an unusually strong dry cold front.

...IT APPEARS MOISTURE
RETURN AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ALTHOUGH
AN AREA WITH AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT...PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW ATTM.


On the reverse side, the previously agressive GFS and CMC have returned to a weaker solution, while now the ECMWF has decided to be the model representing the next system as a more major threat

CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS WITH ECMWF LOOKING
LIKE LAST NIGHTS GFS AND THE NEW GFS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE AND
INDICATING AN ALMOST DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONTRAST THIS WITH THE
ECMWF WHICH INDICATES SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER GEORGIA AND
THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS.


For reference here was the powerful trough depicted on last nights GFS:

Nothing like a 100kt jet streak through TN right?
But it looks like moisture return may not be utilized unless the trough digs deeper.
7days to pan this out no hurry

And now today's EURO, which is particularly more agressive than previous runs of the model:
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Culprit of today's severe wx:
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Quoting Astrometeor:


I second this motion.

Meanwhile in the Northeast.:


they said it would be frosty but its really NOT really mad right now. want to have snow and frost
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Good morning. End of the 6z GFS run:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8049
441. JRRP
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Quoting sunlinepr:
26 killed, 60 fishermen missing in Bangladesh storm
Posted on October 12, 2012

October 12, 2012 – BANGLADESH - At least 26 people were killed and an estimated 60 fishermen are missing after tropical storms smashed into Bangladesh’s southern coastal islands and districts early Thursday, police said. Police had feared at least 1,500 mud, tin and straw-built houses were also levelled in the storms that swept Bhola, Hatiya and Sandwip Islands and half a dozen coastal districts after Wednesday midnight. At the worst-hit island of Hatiya, at least seven people were killed after they were buried under their houses or hit by fallen trees, said local police chief Moktar Hossain. More than 1,000 houses were flattened. “More than 100 fishing trawlers, each carrying at least 10 fishermen, have been missing since the storm,” he told AFP, calling it one of the most powerful in decades. Many fishermen are expected to have taken shelter in other remote islands in the Bay of Bengal or in the neighbouring Sundarbans, the world’s largest mangrove forest. In the past, many fishermen thought to be missing from storms returned home to coastal villages a week or two later. Four people were killed in Bhola, three each in Sandwip and Companyganj and two at Char Jabbar, police said. The police chief of Bhola district, Bashir Ahmed, told AFP he feared as many as more than 500 fishermen were thought missing from the country’s largest island and at least 500 mud and straw-built houses were levelled by the sudden storm but the figure was later revised downward. Bangladesh’s weather office forecast heavy rain in the coastal region and advised fishermen to take care near the shore, but there was no major storm warning. “We only got the warning signal number three. But the storm was so powerful, the weather office should have hoisted the signal number seven or eight,” said Ahmed, referring to the intensity of the storm on a scale of ten. “It caught the fishermen and coastal people by surprise. Till now we haven’t had any reports from the missing fishermen,’ he said, adding the authorities had sent relief to thousands of affected people. –TD

That was caused by the system that the IMD failed to classify even as a TD.
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Good morning everyone.

Just checking in and looking for the latest on Raphael.

Lindy
Member Since: July 30, 2011 Posts: 3 Comments: 709
Quoting PRweathercenter:
its going to come directly over puerto rico
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Quoting JLPR2:
Rafael still disagrees with the models.


The last NHC cone has it a hair to my east.
I'm at 18.4N 66W
24H 14/0600Z 18.8N 65.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
its going to come directly over puerto rico
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435. JLPR2
Rafael still disagrees with the models.


The last NHC cone has it a hair to my east.
I'm at 18.4N 66W
24H 14/0600Z 18.8N 65.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
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TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 AM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

RAFAEL CONTINUES TO HAVE A DISHEVELED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WHILE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING A LARGE CLOUD
SHIELD...DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE DISPLACED EAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER DUE TO PERSISTENT STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE IN A BAND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE
FLYING AT 5000 FT WERE 40 KT AND PEAK SFMR WINDS WERE BETWEEN 35-40
KT...THOUGH SEVERAL OF THE HIGHER VALUES COULD BE RAIN
CONTAMINATED. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT
AT 35 KT.

RAFAEL APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE...
WITH THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE MOTION STILL TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR
320/08. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED
SLOWLY POLEWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A
MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA. BETWEEN
36-72 HOURS...THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS RAFAEL JOGGING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST OR EVEN WEST-NORTHWEST AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. BY DAY 3...A COMPLEX
BUT PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHOULD CAUSE
RAFAEL TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION. WHILE THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS GENERALLY MINIMAL...THE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IS RATHER
SUBSTANTIAL. ON ONE END OF THE SPECTRUM IS THE GFS WHICH MAINTAINS
A STRONGER REPRESENTATION OF RAFAEL THAT IS CAPTURED BY THE ABOVE-
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF AND UKMET...ON THE OTHER
HAND...HAVE WEAKER VERSIONS OF THE STORM THAT ARE STEERED MORE
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD BY A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM.
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND IS SLOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE AS A RESULT OF SOME WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF/UKMET
SOLUTIONS.

THERE IS GREATER-THAN-NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING RAFAEL IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE COLD LOW
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE SHEARS OUT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD
OF INTENSIFICATION FOR A DAY OR TWO...THOUGH THE ECMWF SHOWS
ENOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUING TO PRECLUDE MUCH
STRENGTHENING. REGARDLESS OF THAT...ALL MODELS SHOW INCREASING
SHEAR AFTER 72 HOURS AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AROUND THAT TIME.
DESPITE THIS...HWRF...GFDL...AND SHIPS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
RAFAEL REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
INCREASED A BIT OVER THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS INDICATED AT
DAY 5 IN AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 15.7N 64.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 17.0N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 18.8N 65.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 20.5N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 22.2N 66.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 26.4N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 35.8N 62.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 45.0N 56.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
433. JLPR2
My barometer is at 1008.8mb, it's the first time it has gone below 1009mb since Isaac passed to my south.
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 AM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

...RAFAEL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 64.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

AN ASCAT PASS SEVERAL HOURS AGO SHOWED THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH PATTY WITH MAX WINDS OF 30 KNOTS. SINCE THAT TIME...NIGHT-
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING
ELONGATED AND LOSING ORGANIZATION. THE CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE CENTER. PATTY IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MOST LIKELY...THE CYCLONE WILL DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

PATTY HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE OR ITS REMANTS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH WHICH IS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 25.5N 71.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 25.4N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 14/0600Z 24.0N 74.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...PATTY EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 71.9W
ABOUT 280 MI...445 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42277
Patricia meaning and name origin:

Patricia \p(a)-tri-cia, pat-ricia\ as a girl's name (also used as boy's name Patricia), is pronounced pa-TRISH-ah. It is of Latin origin, and the meaning of Patricia is "noble; patrician". Feminine form of Patrick. The Romans once were divided socially and politically into two major classes, the plebeians and the patricians. To be patrician meant one was highly ranked, an aristocrat.

Rafael meaning and name origin:


Rafael \r(a)-fael\ as a boy's name is pronounced rah-fah-EL. It is of Spanish origin. Variant of Raphael (Hebrew) "God has healed"

Meaning & History:

From the Hebrew name (Rafa'el) which meant "God has healed". In Hebrew tradition Raphael was the name of one of the seven archangels. He appears in the Old Testament in the Book of Tobit, where it is told how he aided Tobias.

------------------------------------

Michael(Hebrew,) who is the other archangel in this years list, went on to become the strongest storm of the season, so far.

Isaac, the third Hebrew name on the list, has the distinction of being the only U.S. land-falling hurricane.

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427. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #67
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
15:00 PM JST October 13 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 21.1N 129.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 21.7N 130.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
48 HRS: 22.5N 130.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
72 HRS: 23.3N 130.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
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426. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ANAIS (01-20122013)
10:30 AM RET October 13 2012
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Anais (993 hPa) located at 9.5S 69.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 with gusts of 60. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/6HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 250 NM in the southeastern quadrant due to gradient effect

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 10.9S 65.6E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 12.1S 63.1E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 13.0S 60.0E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
======================

After a break yesterday evening, system has intensified and has been named Anais by Meteorological Service of Mauritius. 0455 AM UTC ASCAT pass seems to confirm that gale force winds extend up to 50 NM. 0326 AM UTC F18 microwave imagery shows a consolidating configuration. Anais continues to move west southwestward on the northern edge of the subtropical low-mid level high pressures.

Environmental conditions are fairly favorable with good low level inflow and weak east northeasterly wind shear (cf midnight CIMSS data, 030/8kt), system being located beneath the western extremity of an upper level ridge. Currently, heat ocean content is favorable (Sea surface temperature in the order of 27C).

Within the next days, Anais is expected to keep on tracking regularly west southwestward under the steering influence of the northwestern edge of the subtropical high pressures. Upper level environmental conditions should few evolve. System is expected to stay beneath the western edge of the ridge. Monday seems to be the most favorable day for intensification, but uncertainty is high enough for maximum intensity expected. Last ECMWF run (0000 AM UTC) deepens the system more. However, rsmc intensity forecast is maintained in regard of the previous forecast.

On and after after 60, system is expected to encounter cooler sst and undergoing strengthening upper level wind shear. So, it should fairly quickly weaken.
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425. Skyepony (Mod)
Patty looked rough on ASCAT earlier. Fresh OSCAT is brutal. Patty looks dead. Rafael is in the Caribbean.


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
brrr




I was thinking the same & it was 72ºF out there.


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Center of Rafael appears to be 15.2 and 63.77
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brrr


Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 1:00 AM EDT Saturday 13 October 2012
Condition: Clear
Pressure: 30.44 inches
Tendency: rising
Visibility: 15 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 34.7F
Dewpoint: 23.9F
Humidity: 64 %
Wind: calm
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
26 killed, 60 fishermen missing in Bangladesh storm
Posted on October 12, 2012

October 12, 2012 – BANGLADESH - At least 26 people were killed and an estimated 60 fishermen are missing after tropical storms smashed into Bangladesh’s southern coastal islands and districts early Thursday, police said. Police had feared at least 1,500 mud, tin and straw-built houses were also levelled in the storms that swept Bhola, Hatiya and Sandwip Islands and half a dozen coastal districts after Wednesday midnight. At the worst-hit island of Hatiya, at least seven people were killed after they were buried under their houses or hit by fallen trees, said local police chief Moktar Hossain. More than 1,000 houses were flattened. “More than 100 fishing trawlers, each carrying at least 10 fishermen, have been missing since the storm,” he told AFP, calling it one of the most powerful in decades. Many fishermen are expected to have taken shelter in other remote islands in the Bay of Bengal or in the neighbouring Sundarbans, the world’s largest mangrove forest. In the past, many fishermen thought to be missing from storms returned home to coastal villages a week or two later. Four people were killed in Bhola, three each in Sandwip and Companyganj and two at Char Jabbar, police said. The police chief of Bhola district, Bashir Ahmed, told AFP he feared as many as more than 500 fishermen were thought missing from the country’s largest island and at least 500 mud and straw-built houses were levelled by the sudden storm but the figure was later revised downward. Bangladesh’s weather office forecast heavy rain in the coastal region and advised fishermen to take care near the shore, but there was no major storm warning. “We only got the warning signal number three. But the storm was so powerful, the weather office should have hoisted the signal number seven or eight,” said Ahmed, referring to the intensity of the storm on a scale of ten. “It caught the fishermen and coastal people by surprise. Till now we haven’t had any reports from the missing fishermen,’ he said, adding the authorities had sent relief to thousands of affected people. –TD
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T.C.F.W.
17L/TS/R/CX
MARK
14.55N/61.86W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
the recon is up
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looks to be pulling back
reorganizing further south and east
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Quoting Grothar:


i think that one is done gro

17 is next up
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27211
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
looks as if event commence has begun

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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