Patty little threat to the Bahamas; 98L close to tropical storm status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on October 12, 2012

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Tropical Storm Patty formed late yesterday afternoon just east of the Central Bahama Islands. Patty is the sixteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, putting this year in a tie for eighth place for busiest Atlantic season since record keeping began in 1851. Patty isn't going to be around for long, though. Satellite loops show a very sickly storm, with the low-level circulation center exposed to view, and the storm's heavy thunderstorm all pushed to the northeast side of the center of circulation due to strong upper-level winds out of the southwest creating a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. An approaching cold front is dumping dry, stable air into Patty, and the cold front and high shear will likely destroy the storm by Saturday evening. Patty will likely have a minimal impact on the Bahamas. The storm has brought a few sporadic heavy rain showers to the Southeast Bahama Islands this morning, and this activity may continue through Saturday morning. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on its way to Patty, and will be there early this afternoon.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression 16 taken at 11:16 am EDT Thursday, October 11, 2012. At the time, TD 16 had 35 mph winds, and was named Tropical Storm Patty six hours later. Image credit: NASA.

98L bringing heavy rain, high winds to Lesser Antilles
A strong tropical wave (Invest 98L) is bringing tropical-storm force winds and heavy rains to the Lesser Antilles this morning. At 9 am local time, winds at Barbados's Grantly Adams Airport hit a sustained 39 mph, which is minimum tropical storm-force. Wind gusts as high as 47 mph were observed on Barbados this morning. A pass from the Windsat satellite at 12:38 am EDT found that 98L had top winds of 35 mph near 17°N latitude, a few hundred miles east of Antigua. The storm is headed north-northwest to northwest at about 10 - 15 mph, and will bring tropical storm conditions to much of the Lesser Antilles Islands today and Saturday. The disturbance has plenty of spin and a large amount of moderately well-organized heavy thunderstorms, as seen on Martinique radar and satellite loops. An elongated, poorly-defined surface circulation is apparent just west of the central Lesser Antilles Islands, but satellite imagery and airport observations from the islands do not show the well-defined closed surface circulation needed for 98L to be classified as a tropical storm. An upper-level low centered a few hundred miles south of the eastern Dominican Republic is pumping dry air into the west side of 98L, and creating a high 15 - 30 knots of wind shear. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 98L this afternoon.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L over the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Forecast for 98L
Wind shear is predicted to diminish to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, tonight through Saturday night. Given 98L's current degree of organization, the forecast drop in wind shear, and a high degree of model support for development, NHC's 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook forecast of an 80% chance of development by Sunday morning for 98L looks reasonable. I expect 98L to be upgraded later today, and it will probably skip being classified as a tropical depression and immediately be named Tropical Storm Rafael. The models are pretty well clustered for the track of 98L, taking it north-northwest through the Lesser Antilles towards Bermuda. With most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms on its east side due to dry air to the west, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the eastern Dominican Republic are likely to see much weaker winds and less heavy rain than the Leeward Islands. The Leeward Islands can expect tropical storm conditions with occasional sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph today and Saturday as 98L moves through. The storm will make its closest pass to Bermuda on Tuesday morning, and it is possible that 98L will be capable of bringing tropical storm conditions to Bermuda. However, the track of 98L on Monday and Tuesday is rather uncertain, due to the possible interaction of the storm with the remnants of Tropical Storm Patty. 98L is not a threat to the U.S., though it could affect Newfoundland, Canada next week.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting wxchaser97:

Maybe everyone is still sleeping, I just woke up.

I agree with that, PR and Bermuda should see heavy rain and wind. I think Rafael won't make it to a major and peak as a cat 1 to maybe cat2.


The forum is dead because the storm isn't a threat to the mainland U.S.
Put a tropical system in the western carribean and see what happens.

And that's what its going to take for the U.S to get as tropical system (GOM or Western Carribean development).
All the other systems will be blocked from directly affecting the mainland U.S.
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Sending well wishes to our friends in the islands for tropical storm rafael. hunkerdown and stay SAFE!
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Culebra and Vieques are now under a Tropical Storm Warning.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES HAS
BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14904
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Well in Puerto Rico we still don't have a Tropical storm warning they say the COC will past 80 miles to our east,so everybody is doing their normal Saturday activities...,but satellite show, is heading straight towards us, with actually moving NW,,lot of people are going to be taken off guard here ...


I guess some people are more vigilant with hurricanes than tropical storms but tropical storms can be very dangerous with the amount of rain they can bring in a few hours. Severe flash flooding then becomes a major issue.

Here comes the sun........I wonder for how long.
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15.9N 64.1W? Really?

Link
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in dominica... some steady light rainfall.. heavy band just off shore coming in soon
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USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SINCE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS
EXTEND WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
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Rafael has some history behind it, as every R storm (Roxanne, Rita, Richard, Rina) has become a hurricane, with all but Richard becoming a major.
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Bye bye Patty.

...PATTY NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...
11:00 AM EDT Sat Oct 13
Location: 24.8°N 72.6°W
Moving: WSW at 5 mph
Min pressure: 1010 mb
Max sustained: 30 mph
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Man, you guys sure are quiet for a tropical storm in the Eastern Caribbean.

Maybe everyone is still sleeping, I just woke up.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Rafael is steadily organizing this morning as wind shear decreases. Should peak as a hurricane in 3-4 days.

I agree with that, PR and Bermuda should see heavy rain and wind. I think Rafael won't make it to a major and peak as a cat 1 to maybe cat2.
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REMNANTS OF PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

VISIBLE IMAGES AND SATELLITE DERIVED LOW-LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THE
CIRCULATION OF PATTY HAS BECOME HIGHLY ELONGATED AND IT APPEARS THAT
IT IS NO LONGER CLOSED. THEREFORE...PATTY DOES NOT QUALIFY AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THE REMNANTS OF PATTY...WHICH ARE
LOCATED NEAR THE BASE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ARE MOVING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE TROUGH DISSIPATES OVER OR NEAR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS BY THIS EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF PATTY PLEASE SEE HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 24.8N 72.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF PATTY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...PATTY NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 72.6W
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Rafael is steadily organizing this morning as wind shear decreases. Should peak as a hurricane in 3-4 days.



Yes it looks wayyyyyyy better than yesterday
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Quoting HuracanTaino:
Agree, and still we are not under TS warning...funny I think...
tio




Warnigs shuold be up at next advisory.
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Rafael is steadily organizing this morning as wind shear decreases. Should peak as a hurricane in 3-4 days.

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FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
947 AM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

PRZ001>013-132215-
/O.EXA.TJSJ.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-121014T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO.. .YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE... AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABAN A GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO. ..CABO ROJO...
LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA
947 AM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES
AND CULEBRA.

* THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING

* BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES THROUGH LATE TODAY...
BUT ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...AS TROPICAL
STORM RAFAEL MOVES CLOSER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT.
THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE
FOCUS OF THE RAIN WILL CHANGE ON SUNDAY...AS RAFAEL MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA AND THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...RESULTING
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CLUSTERING ACROSS SOUTHERN PUERTO
RICO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS
OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

$$
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14904
497. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ANAIS (01-20122013)
16:30 PM RET October 13 2012
==========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Anais (990 hPa) located at 10.1S 68.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 with gusts of 65. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/12HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 90 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 100 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 160 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 250 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 11.5S 65.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 12.6S 63.0E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 13.7S 59.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
======================

Anais shows a curved band pattern wrapping on 0.8 wrap around the center. On infrared imagery, convection seems fluctuating near the center, but 0805 AM UTC TRMM shows an irregular closed eye on 85 GHZ and 37 GHZ. So current intensity is estimated at 45 kt. Anais has a little accelerated in keeping a west southwestward track on the northern edge of the subtropical low-mid level high pressures.

Environmental conditions are favorable with good low level inflow and a east northeasterly wind shear that is still decreasing (06:00 AM UTC CIMSS data, 020/7kt), system being located beneath the western extremity of an upper level ridge. Currently, heat ocean content is favourable (sea surface temperature is around 27C).

Within the next days, Anais is expected to keep on tracking regularly west southwestward under the steering influence of the northwestern edge of the subtropical high pressures. Upper level environmental conditions should few evolve. System is expected to stay beneath the western edge of the ridge. A significant uncertainty remains for maximum intensity expected. ECMWF and ARPEGE clearly deepen the system considering that system stays on western extremity of the ridge with a weak wind shear and a very good poleward outflow. However, heat ocean content is limited during that time of the season. RSMC intensity forecast is enhanced in regard of the previous forecast.

On and after 48-60 hours, system is expected to encounter cooler sea surface temperatures and undergoing strengthening upper level wind shear. So, it should fairly quickly weaken.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46991
Man, you guys sure are quiet for a tropical storm in the Eastern Caribbean.
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Quoting PRweathercenter:
its going to come directly over puerto rico
Agree, and still we are not under TS warning...funny I think...
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Quoting aspectre:
471 islandgirls: Experiencing some gusty winds and steady rain (not too heavy in my location) here in Antigua where we are under tropical storm warning. No thunder or lightening at the moment.

Probably experiencing the worst-you'll-get already. ANU is Antigua
Well in Puerto Rico we still don't have a Tropical storm warning they say the COC will past 80 miles to our east,so everybody is doing their normal Saturday activities...,but satellite show, is heading straight towards us, with actually moving NW,,lot of people are going to be taken off guard here ...
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JTWC has officially given Cyclone 1S the name Anais... it is now forecast to peak at 75kts.

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15.5N 63W?

Link

Seems erratic
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vis. sat=does not look like a tropical storm
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5006
Thanks to this sunday-wednesday's system, this next big trough should be relatively dry, if the GFS pans out, and if it stays at that time frame,(the models have been pushing it back)


Last 2 Euro's:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
481 BahaHurican: Looks like what's left of Patty may bring a few showers our way today... currently it's overcast here with light winds...
484 Murko: Isn't that from the front? Patty seems too far away and sheared to the NE to bring us anything at all over the next day or two. We have anything but light winds here on Eleuthera. 20-25mph at the moment, and overcast on Regatta day!

Haiti and southernCuba have been blowing up convection since at least yesterday. Be interesting to see what happens if the west-southwestward-heading postPatty low meets that northwestward-venting convection.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
April 27 2011


last night GFS:


So you see the dangers of having such a negatively tilted trough with high shear if other parameters can be realized, which attm it appears they will not.


Hmm April 27 2011 one of my favourite days
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
Sharp dryline predicted but little moisture return
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
interesting animation:

4/27/11
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
April 27 2011


last night GFS:


So you see the dangers of having such a negatively tilted trough with high shear if other parameters can be realized, which attm it appears they will not.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
484. Murko
Quoting BahaHurican:
Looks like what's left of Patty may bring a few showers our way today... currently it's overcast here with light winds....


Isn't that from the front? Patty seems too far away and sheared to the NE to bring us anything at all over the next day or two. We have anything but light winds here on Eleuthera. 20-25mph at the moment, and overcast on Regatta day!
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Quoting islandgirls:
Good morning all. Experiencing some gusty winds and steady rain (not too heavy in my location) here in Antigua where we are under tropical storm warning. No thunder or lightening at the moment. Guess the heavier showers from Rafael are on the way. To my fellow islanders under watches or warnings stay safe, God bless.
You too, Islandgirl... hopefully you will get some beneficial rain and not much in the way of wind / water damage....
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477 trHUrrIXC5MMX: AL, 16, 2012101312, , BEST, 0, 250N, 720W, 25, 1010, PT
Bye...bye...see you in 2018, Patty


PostTropicalPatty is looping de loop.

Both storms are way too small to Fujiwhara at the current separation of 859miles(1383kilometres)...

...but postPatty might well be close enough to feel a "lows attract lows" teleconnection with Raphael.
So it may be a bit early to say bye-bye... Who knows what'll happen with postPatty if it gets drawn southeastward while Raphael gets drawn northwestward?
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Looks like what's left of Patty may bring a few showers our way today... currently it's overcast here with light winds....



Looks like Cuba and the SE Bahamas may get rather more.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
This next system alternates between looking more dangerous shear-wise with a negative tilt, and being more vertical and not posing as much of a threat.
Either way it looks like it will not matter because of low moisture return leading to negligible CAPE, but in time that may or may not change


the SPC agrees with this for now, so as of right now its just an unusually strong dry cold front.

...IT APPEARS MOISTURE
RETURN AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ALTHOUGH
AN AREA WITH AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT...PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW ATTM.


On the reverse side, the previously agressive GFS and CMC have returned to a weaker solution, while now the ECMWF has decided to be the model representing the next system as a more major threat

CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS WITH ECMWF LOOKING
LIKE LAST NIGHTS GFS AND THE NEW GFS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE AND
INDICATING AN ALMOST DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONTRAST THIS WITH THE
ECMWF WHICH INDICATES SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER GEORGIA AND
THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS.


For reference here was the powerful trough depicted on last nights GFS:

Nothing like a 100kt jet streak through TN right?
But it looks like moisture return may not be utilized unless the trough digs deeper.
7days to pan this out no hurry

And now today's EURO, which is particularly more agressive than previous runs of the model:

WOW! nice strong cold front for me!!
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471 islandgirls: Experiencing some gusty winds and steady rain (not too heavy in my location) here in Antigua where we are under tropical storm warning. No thunder or lightening at the moment.

Probably experiencing the worst-you'll-get already. ANU is Antigua
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AL, 16, 2012101312, , BEST, 0, 250N, 720W, 25, 1010, PT

Bye...bye...see you in 2018 Patty
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 34 knots (~ 39.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 63 knots (~ 72.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 32 mm/hr (~ 1.26 in/hr)
Little old but lol
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 996.4 mb (~ 29.42 inHg)
That's right now


don't tell me this is one of those storms that starts dropping the pressure and the winds don't go up as much...another Isaac?
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:

winds are contaminated but 996mb?

yeap!
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Good morning everyone,Can anybody give the link to the hurricane hunter as I lost all my information on the pc by a virus last week. Thank you in advance
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Strange fixes of Rafael, same to jump NE, then the last fix is almost due west of fix #3 or about 280 degrees, still not seeing an NW movement yet.
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Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14904
Good morning all. Experiencing some gusty winds and steady rain (not too heavy in my location) here in Antigua where we are under tropical storm warning. No thunder or lightening at the moment. Guess the heavier showers from Rafael are on the way. To my fellow islanders under watches or warnings stay safe, God bless.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42260
.............nice breeze here this morning, looks to be a real nice day here by me
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42260
5PM seems like a good bet for the first advisory on 97E:

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467. JRRP
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:

winds are contaminated but 996mb?

I knew the winds would be contaminated but Idk why they found a 996mb pressure reading
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Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 34 knots (~ 39.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 63 knots (~ 72.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 32 mm/hr (~ 1.26 in/hr)
Little old but lol
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 996.4 mb (~ 29.42 inHg)
That's right now

winds are contaminated but 996mb?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9760
Good morning.

3" between 3:00pm and 9:00pm last evening, and another 1.5" overnight at my location in Trinidad.
Heavy overcast and drizzle for the past couple of hours.

Northern islands look to be under the heaviest convection today.
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