Patty little threat to the Bahamas; 98L close to tropical storm status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on October 12, 2012

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Tropical Storm Patty formed late yesterday afternoon just east of the Central Bahama Islands. Patty is the sixteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, putting this year in a tie for eighth place for busiest Atlantic season since record keeping began in 1851. Patty isn't going to be around for long, though. Satellite loops show a very sickly storm, with the low-level circulation center exposed to view, and the storm's heavy thunderstorm all pushed to the northeast side of the center of circulation due to strong upper-level winds out of the southwest creating a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. An approaching cold front is dumping dry, stable air into Patty, and the cold front and high shear will likely destroy the storm by Saturday evening. Patty will likely have a minimal impact on the Bahamas. The storm has brought a few sporadic heavy rain showers to the Southeast Bahama Islands this morning, and this activity may continue through Saturday morning. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on its way to Patty, and will be there early this afternoon.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression 16 taken at 11:16 am EDT Thursday, October 11, 2012. At the time, TD 16 had 35 mph winds, and was named Tropical Storm Patty six hours later. Image credit: NASA.

98L bringing heavy rain, high winds to Lesser Antilles
A strong tropical wave (Invest 98L) is bringing tropical-storm force winds and heavy rains to the Lesser Antilles this morning. At 9 am local time, winds at Barbados's Grantly Adams Airport hit a sustained 39 mph, which is minimum tropical storm-force. Wind gusts as high as 47 mph were observed on Barbados this morning. A pass from the Windsat satellite at 12:38 am EDT found that 98L had top winds of 35 mph near 17°N latitude, a few hundred miles east of Antigua. The storm is headed north-northwest to northwest at about 10 - 15 mph, and will bring tropical storm conditions to much of the Lesser Antilles Islands today and Saturday. The disturbance has plenty of spin and a large amount of moderately well-organized heavy thunderstorms, as seen on Martinique radar and satellite loops. An elongated, poorly-defined surface circulation is apparent just west of the central Lesser Antilles Islands, but satellite imagery and airport observations from the islands do not show the well-defined closed surface circulation needed for 98L to be classified as a tropical storm. An upper-level low centered a few hundred miles south of the eastern Dominican Republic is pumping dry air into the west side of 98L, and creating a high 15 - 30 knots of wind shear. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 98L this afternoon.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L over the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Forecast for 98L
Wind shear is predicted to diminish to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, tonight through Saturday night. Given 98L's current degree of organization, the forecast drop in wind shear, and a high degree of model support for development, NHC's 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook forecast of an 80% chance of development by Sunday morning for 98L looks reasonable. I expect 98L to be upgraded later today, and it will probably skip being classified as a tropical depression and immediately be named Tropical Storm Rafael. The models are pretty well clustered for the track of 98L, taking it north-northwest through the Lesser Antilles towards Bermuda. With most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms on its east side due to dry air to the west, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the eastern Dominican Republic are likely to see much weaker winds and less heavy rain than the Leeward Islands. The Leeward Islands can expect tropical storm conditions with occasional sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph today and Saturday as 98L moves through. The storm will make its closest pass to Bermuda on Tuesday morning, and it is possible that 98L will be capable of bringing tropical storm conditions to Bermuda. However, the track of 98L on Monday and Tuesday is rather uncertain, due to the possible interaction of the storm with the remnants of Tropical Storm Patty. 98L is not a threat to the U.S., though it could affect Newfoundland, Canada next week.

Jeff Masters

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vis.loop of 98 is interesting almost looks like the low is outrunning the convection moving wnw
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4886

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1111 AM AST FRI OCT 12 2012

.UPDATE...THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN IS CONTROLLED BY TWO TUTT
LOWS...ONE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THE OTHER OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST
NORTHWEST AND BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY AFFECTING PART OF THE LOCAL AREA.

THE COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT LOWS WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND LOCAL EFFECTS INDUCED
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND
BEYOND...THE LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
FEATURE CLOSELY DURING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AND ALTHOUGH WE
ARE 24 HOURS CLOSER TO THE EVENT...THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY REGARDING TRACK AND
FORWARD SPEED. NHC INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHAT
EFFECTS THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE ON THE LOCAL AREA...IT APPEARS AT
THIS POINT...THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA WOULD BE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...PARTICULARLY LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND NOT ETCHED IN
STONE. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14561
Tampa Bay area 7-day..............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40965
Thx Dr Masters
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9737
Thanks Dr. Masters!
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Quoting FtMyersgal:


I agree with you VR. In RBG she looks almost naked!



Yep a naked swirl is evident

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Patty tracks.....real consensus with the models ;)....Sarcasm

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Quoting VR46L:
Patty in rainbow...



98L in rainbow



and the big picture of the Caribbean



Patty looks in trouble in my opinion


I agree with you VR. In RBG she looks almost naked!

Link
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40965
Quoting biowizard:
St Lucia is looking VERY soggy right now ... hopefully this storm will pass without bringing on any more landslides.

Brian
with 2 systems nearby all the islands from cuba eastward are going to have a stormy weekend, but..some say they need the rains
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40965
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40965
St Lucia is looking VERY soggy right now ... hopefully this storm will pass without bringing on any more landslides.

Brian
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Looks like they found the COC. 25.6 72.2. Lowest pressure so far 1010mb
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Quoting weatherbro:
Well, whatever forms in the west Caribbean will definitely steer northeasterly as Florida's first big dose of Autumn cool air is primed for next Friday!!!

..local met says this coming front will be stronger, going to cool things down once again for us..great news indeed.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40965
Quoting TomballTXPride:

No with deep troughs digging down to the Gulf Coast. Those vertical shear dynamics amidst the 500-700 MB layer as well as the 200 MB layer will provide enough hostility to make a tilt-a-whirl or leaning Tower of Pisa look upright, much less any struggling TS that happens to meander there.
just remember folks..any..tropical something in the gulf in october..gets moved over and thru Florida..no matter what it is or becomes
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40965
Quoting 7544:


boy that red circle has sure moved westward this am hmmmm could it get in the carb afterall another interesting system to watch
yes a very watchful weekend coming up
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40965
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Fall is here in S FL!!:)low of 64 this morning!!:) and it 83 now!:)
..feels great huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40965
Patty in rainbow...



98L in rainbow



and the big picture of the Caribbean



Patty looks in trouble in my opinion
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Fall is here in S FL!!:)low of 64 this morning!!:) and it 83 now!:)
Quoting Neapolitan:
You may have to wait a little bit longer:

8-14
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TCPOD for Saturday and Sunday.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT FRI 12 OCTOBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z OCTOBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-146

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA ()
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 73-- FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 71--
A. 13/1800Z,14/0000Z A. 14/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0317A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0417A CYCLONE
C. 13/1645Z C. 14/0930Z
D. 18.3N 64.4W D. 21.0N 65.5W0W
E. 13/1700Z TO 14/0000Z E. 14/0900Z TO 14/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM IS STILL A THREAT.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14561
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Yesterday at Noon we had a 76 degree dewpoint, unheard of for October for South Central Texas. Waiting for Fall to begin
You may have to wait a little bit longer:

8-14
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42. 7544
Quoting LargoFl:


boy that red circle has sure moved westward this am hmmmm could it get in the carb afterall another interesting system to watch
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6872
Yesterday at Noon we had a 76 degree dewpoint, unheard of for October for South Central Texas. Waiting for Fall to begin
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Quoting 7544:


tanks taz u know what time?



if you read my commet i said there on the way now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115357
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Those temps do not matter if shear is present. Shear will win every time. Hands down. Period. Case Closed.


Far from the truth actually. I've seen many storms triumph over shear, often because they're able to use warm SST's to generate enough convergence to thunderstorms going, that can sometimes cause the CoC to relocate. Barry in 2007 for example developed in the face of an insane 40kt windshear value.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24476
37. 7544
Quoting Tazmanian:
if any one cares we have a recon on the way for TS patty


tanks taz u know what time?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6872
Thanks Dr. Masters. Wow; never expected us to get up to an "R" storm this year but still lot's of untapped warm SST's in the MDR. Sheer and drier cold air masses will be the main inhibitors, as usual, in the coming weeks as the season winds down.
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Thanks Dr. Masters. I'll be interested to hear what Recon find in Patty and 98L
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Well, whatever forms in the west Caribbean will definitely steer northeasterly as Florida's first big dose of Autumn cool air is primed for next Friday!!!

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Quoting pottery:

Depends what the 'plane finds I guess.
Although the conditions in B'dos seem to confirm TS status right now.
Since most of the islands are feeling TS strength winds they probably upgrade, even if the COC isn't very define...and Tropical storm watches and warning are going to begin soon for the eastern Caribbean....
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
633 AM AST FRI OCT 12 2012

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-131045-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
633 AM AST FRI OCT 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MONA PASSAGE CONTINUES TO
PROMOTE AN UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL AFFECT
MOST OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES TODAY. HOWEVER...THE
MOST INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL...NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF THE
NORTH AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WHERE THE SOILS ARE FAIRLY
SATURATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED NEAR SAINT LUCIA THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSE
TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SATURDAY...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING AND/OR
SEVERE WEATHER.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40965
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
One now go to S FL
..yes we need to keep a good eye on here, the models are changing daily now, waiting for the data from the HH to get into the models..tonight should be interesting to see what they say then about where she is going.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40965
Quoting Tazmanian:
if any one cares we have a recon on the way for TS patty
good news
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40965
if any one cares we have a recon on the way for TS patty
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115357
One now go to S FL
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40965
Hey, Pottery hope you got the amount of rain you requested. Seldom works that way, but I keep my mouth shut in order to increase your odds.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
anyway guys I out till after 1pm see ya later
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Thanks Dr. Master, I don't think the VI and PR aren't out of the Wood,in terms of rain, pre-Rafael is moving to the WNW, and that could be very dangerous to Puerto Rico ,due to the high terrains, very high mountains, and numerous rivers on the island,land slides are possibles, and lots of flooding...just an advised. People have a tendency for not paying attention to unname storms.... hopefully they name it this afternoon, and people would "raise their eyebrows" during the weekend.
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Quoting LargoFl:
80% now and building............


Morning all. And to think 97 was barely hanging on at 10% and now is Patty while it looked like 98 would become Patty first. What an odd season it has been with these storms. Hoping that you guys in the Caribbean that need the rain get some much needed relief from this setup.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Where she'll die for the third and final time.
hopefully so but..water temps mid 80's..maybe the coming stronger front will kill her off
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40965
notice..the First model to put Patty in the gulf....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40965
Quoting gordydunnot:
Looking at the satellite this morning it seems like 98L wants to merge with the ULL to it's west. Just an observation probably wrong as usual. Point being I still think the track maybe further west. Notice they keep moving the location westward but just bend the track steeper to the north. Guess one way or the other they'll be right as usual. By the way thanks Doc. and good morning to one and all.

Good point.
There's been a LOT of confusion this season regarding early tracking.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40965
Looking at the satellite this morning it seems like 98L wants to merge with the ULL to it's west. Just an observation probably wrong as usual. Point being I still think the track maybe further west. Notice they keep moving the location westward but just bend the track steeper to the north. Guess one way or the other they'll be right as usual. By the way thanks Doc. and good morning to one and all.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
80% now and building............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 40965
Quoting allancalderini:
Thanks Dr Masters. Cool straight to ts Rafael.

Depends what the 'plane finds I guess.
Although the conditions in B'dos seem to confirm TS status right now.
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Thanks Dr Masters. Cool straight to ts Rafael.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4455

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.