Patty little threat to the Bahamas; 98L close to tropical storm status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:50 PM GMT on October 12, 2012

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Tropical Storm Patty formed late yesterday afternoon just east of the Central Bahama Islands. Patty is the sixteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, putting this year in a tie for eighth place for busiest Atlantic season since record keeping began in 1851. Patty isn't going to be around for long, though. Satellite loops show a very sickly storm, with the low-level circulation center exposed to view, and the storm's heavy thunderstorm all pushed to the northeast side of the center of circulation due to strong upper-level winds out of the southwest creating a high 20 - 30 knots of wind shear. An approaching cold front is dumping dry, stable air into Patty, and the cold front and high shear will likely destroy the storm by Saturday evening. Patty will likely have a minimal impact on the Bahamas. The storm has brought a few sporadic heavy rain showers to the Southeast Bahama Islands this morning, and this activity may continue through Saturday morning. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on its way to Patty, and will be there early this afternoon.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Depression 16 taken at 11:16 am EDT Thursday, October 11, 2012. At the time, TD 16 had 35 mph winds, and was named Tropical Storm Patty six hours later. Image credit: NASA.

98L bringing heavy rain, high winds to Lesser Antilles
A strong tropical wave (Invest 98L) is bringing tropical-storm force winds and heavy rains to the Lesser Antilles this morning. At 9 am local time, winds at Barbados's Grantly Adams Airport hit a sustained 39 mph, which is minimum tropical storm-force. Wind gusts as high as 47 mph were observed on Barbados this morning. A pass from the Windsat satellite at 12:38 am EDT found that 98L had top winds of 35 mph near 17°N latitude, a few hundred miles east of Antigua. The storm is headed north-northwest to northwest at about 10 - 15 mph, and will bring tropical storm conditions to much of the Lesser Antilles Islands today and Saturday. The disturbance has plenty of spin and a large amount of moderately well-organized heavy thunderstorms, as seen on Martinique radar and satellite loops. An elongated, poorly-defined surface circulation is apparent just west of the central Lesser Antilles Islands, but satellite imagery and airport observations from the islands do not show the well-defined closed surface circulation needed for 98L to be classified as a tropical storm. An upper-level low centered a few hundred miles south of the eastern Dominican Republic is pumping dry air into the west side of 98L, and creating a high 15 - 30 knots of wind shear. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 98L this afternoon.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 98L over the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Forecast for 98L
Wind shear is predicted to diminish to the moderate range, 15 - 20 knots, tonight through Saturday night. Given 98L's current degree of organization, the forecast drop in wind shear, and a high degree of model support for development, NHC's 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook forecast of an 80% chance of development by Sunday morning for 98L looks reasonable. I expect 98L to be upgraded later today, and it will probably skip being classified as a tropical depression and immediately be named Tropical Storm Rafael. The models are pretty well clustered for the track of 98L, taking it north-northwest through the Lesser Antilles towards Bermuda. With most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms on its east side due to dry air to the west, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the eastern Dominican Republic are likely to see much weaker winds and less heavy rain than the Leeward Islands. The Leeward Islands can expect tropical storm conditions with occasional sustained winds of 35 - 45 mph today and Saturday as 98L moves through. The storm will make its closest pass to Bermuda on Tuesday morning, and it is possible that 98L will be capable of bringing tropical storm conditions to Bermuda. However, the track of 98L on Monday and Tuesday is rather uncertain, due to the possible interaction of the storm with the remnants of Tropical Storm Patty. 98L is not a threat to the U.S., though it could affect Newfoundland, Canada next week.

Jeff Masters

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113. VR46L
Quoting washingtonian115:
Patty and 98L are very fugly.Like bother and sister I guess.Well at least its better than talking anout AGW but that'll be saved for when hurricane season is over.Please let winter come early this year!!.


Patty was cute yesterday before she was declared ...as soon as she was declared she started going downhill
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The U.S. is in a nice cool down after a brutal summer. Over the past week record lows temps have out numbered highs 1,954 to 150 (13:1). Over the past month, lows have out numbered highs 3,105 to 1,212 (2.5:1). No mention by Dr. Masters. Guaranteed that if highs out numbered the lows he would be all over it. Agenda.....
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Strong wording.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF DOMINICA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM
FORCE IN RAINBANDS...HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS STILL SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LACKS A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM WILL FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

IF THIS OCCURS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WOULD BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
WILL BE INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24020
Patty and 98L are very fugly.Like bother and sister I guess.Well at least its better than talking anout AGW but that'll be saved for when hurricane season is over.Please let winter come early this year!!.
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FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1102 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

MOC119-145-121800-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0029.000000T0000Z-121012T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
MCDONALD MO-NEWTON MO-
1102 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR
MCDONALD AND SOUTHERN NEWTON COUNTIES...

AT 1055 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT BETWEEN THREE AND FIVE INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER SOUTHERN
NEWTON AND MCDONALD COUNTIES IN MISSOURI. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS
BETWEEN ANDERSON AND GOODMAN.

THIS HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING.
CREEKS...STREAMS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DANGERS OF FLASH FLOODING.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE FOLLOWING LOW WATER
CROSSINGS...

HIGHWAY 43 AT BUFFALO CREEK WEST OF ANDERSON...
ROUTE DD AT THE ELK RIVER JUST NORTH OF NOEL...
HIGHWAY 76 3 MILES WEST OF ANDERSON...
HIGHWAY 90 AT LITTLE SUGAR CREEK NEAR JANE...
ROUTE AA AT BUFFALO CREEK JUST WEST OF HIGHWAY 71.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR IN A VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3649 9462 3650 9463 3683 9462 3684 9406
3649 9408

$$

BOXELL
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38484
GET OUT THE WOOLIES NORTHEAST......................FREEZING TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-103-105-107-NYZ067>070-1222 00-
/O.UPG.KOKX.FZ.A.0007.121013T0500Z-121013T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.FZ.W.0005.121013T0500Z-121013T1300Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-ORANGE-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
320 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY. THE
FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARDS...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* TIMING...AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING COULD KILL CROPS AND
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT
OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38484
GFS at 120 hours.........................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38484
hey CB

rains coming
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http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Recon Graphic display
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6032
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


apparently there were more, but just not over my area of ATL


What a fantastic picture!
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TROPICAL STORM PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1500 UTC FRI OCT 12 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 72.0W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 72.0W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 72.2W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 25.7N 71.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.6N 71.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 24.5N 73.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 23.5N 75.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 72.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38484
98 is really a pretty large system.

If that thing starts to spin and the shear drops off a bit, whoaaaaaa !
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24311
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:

Weather11:17 AM - Public
Stratus undulatus clouds over Atlanta




apparently there were more, but just not over my area of ATL
Cool Wave Clouds Spotted in Atlanta



Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
:):))
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24311
Happy to help...been mainly lurking for years.
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Barbados Radar.......................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38484
Quoting 7544:
is it true they found the winds up to 50 mph in the that naked swirl area of patty ?

At the surface ??

I didn't see that anywhere.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24311
Quoting AegirsGal:
Here is the Tropical Atlantic site...info is decoded there or you can follow along on Google Earth:

Link


Thank you very much Gal. I've bookmarked the site.

:)
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93. 7544
is it true they found the winds up to 50 mph in the that naked swirl area of patty ?
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Quoting AegirsGal:
Here is the Tropical Atlantic site...info is decoded there or you can follow along on Google Earth:

Link

Thanks for helping out.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24311
Quoting hydrus:
looking at those pics, seems the gulf is safe for awhile
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38484
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Anybody got a decoder?
Here is the Tropical Atlantic site...info is decoded there or you can follow along on Google Earth:

Link
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Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
Weather11:17 AM - Public
Stratus undulatus clouds over Atlanta

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
Quoting AegirsGal:
you're welcome. As always, where the center is remains to be seen. Sometimes they get it, sometimes they don't.


Yes.
These big disorganised systems often have trouble spinning up in one spot and the LLC can move around.... especially this far south.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24311
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Well the weaker it is the further W it goes

Btw I am working off my new IPad


Good luck with the IPAD..

....The futher west it goes the more shear it has to battle with.... check it out on this loop that is embedded

Link
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Well the weaker it is the further W it goes

Btw I am working off my new IPad


not that much further

hugs the spine of the chain east till at virgins then n nw onwards till a slow drift n ne begins
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Quoting pottery:

Thank you.

I wonder if they will find a dominant centre at the above co-ordinates ?
you're welcome. As always, where the center is remains to be seen. Sometimes they get it, sometimes they don't.
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Quoting AegirsGal:


2. SUSPECT AREA (LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71--
A. 12/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 12/1700Z
D. 15.5N 62.5W
E. 12/1730Z TO 12/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

from:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml ?


Anybody got a decoder?
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Quoting yonzabam:
Flooding in Scotland, today (BBC news video). 60 miles from me. Jet stream seems to have gone berserk in this part of the world.


Link

Yeah, I was looking at that a little while ago.
Weirdness prevails......
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24311
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
I just finished eating Patty for lunch.
(a Jamaican Beef patty that is : )

yum


An I have just chomped through a Jamaican Chicken Curry Patty :-)
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Flooding in Scotland, today (BBC news video). 60 miles from me. Jet stream seems to have gone berserk in this part of the world.


Link
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2925
Quoting AegirsGal:


2. SUSPECT AREA (LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71--
A. 12/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 12/1700Z
D. 15.5N 62.5W
E. 12/1730Z TO 12/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

from:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml ?

Thank you.

I wonder if they will find a dominant centre at the above co-ordinates ?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24311
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Quoting pottery:

Thats for Patty.

Do you know what time the HH enters 98 ?


2. SUSPECT AREA (LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71--
A. 12/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 12/1700Z
D. 15.5N 62.5W
E. 12/1730Z TO 12/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

from:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml ?
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98L
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Quoting AegirsGal:
HH recon info grid says 1007mb is lowest pressure, yet clicking on individual observations on Google Earth shows this:

Time: 15:34:00Z
Coordinates: 25.4167N 72.2167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.6 mb (~ 24.88 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,559 meters (~ 5,115 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1005.7 mb (~ 29.70 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 325° at 6 knots (From the NW at ~ 6.9 mph)
Air Temp: 21.5°C (~ 70.7°F)
Dew Pt: 11.4°C (~ 52.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 7 knots (~ 8.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 28 knots (~ 32.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

What gives? Is it because it is an extrapolated value?

Thats for Patty.

Do you know what time the HH enters 98 ?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24311
HH recon info grid says 1007mb is lowest pressure, yet clicking on individual observations on Google Earth shows this:

Time: 15:34:00Z
Coordinates: 25.4167N 72.2167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 842.6 mb (~ 24.88 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,559 meters (~ 5,115 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1005.7 mb (~ 29.70 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 325° at 6 knots (From the NW at ~ 6.9 mph)
Air Temp: 21.5°C (~ 70.7°F)
Dew Pt: 11.4°C (~ 52.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 7 knots (~ 8.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 28 knots (~ 32.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

What gives? Is it because it is an extrapolated value?
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1111 AM AST FRI OCT 12 2012

.UPDATE...THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN IS CONTROLLED BY TWO TUTT
LOWS...ONE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THE OTHER OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY. A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST
NORTHWEST AND BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...POSSIBLY AFFECTING PART OF THE LOCAL AREA.

THE COMBINATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TUTT LOWS WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND LOCAL EFFECTS INDUCED
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND
BEYOND...THE LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CARIBBEAN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
FEATURE CLOSELY DURING TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...AND ALTHOUGH WE
ARE 24 HOURS CLOSER TO THE EVENT...THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY REGARDING TRACK AND
FORWARD SPEED.
NHC INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHAT
EFFECTS THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE ON THE LOCAL AREA...IT APPEARS AT
THIS POINT...THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA WOULD BE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...PARTICULARLY LATE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND NOT ETCHED IN
STONE. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM



I'm not surprised, really....
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Quoting islander101010:
vis.loop of 98 is interesting almost looks like the low is outrunning the convection moving wnw


Well the weaker it is the further W it goes

Btw I am working off my new IPad
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12Z!!
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Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6032
Big Wind!! in S SF
Saturday Partly cloudy with a chance of rain. High of 84F. Breezy. Winds from the NE at 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20%.
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Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #10
TYPHOON NINA (PRAPIROON)
11:00 PM PhST October 12 2012
========================================

Typhoon "NINA" continous to move north notheastward slowly

At 10:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Nina [958 hPa] located at 20.5°N 129.4°E or 670 km east of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast slowly.

Additional Information
=======================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon.

Typhoon "NINA" is still far to directly affect any part of the country.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the northern and western Seaboards of northern Luzon and the eastern Seaboard of Luzon and Visayas due to big waves generated by Typhoon "NINA".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45302
I just finished eating Patty for lunch.
(a Jamaican Beef patty that is : )

yum
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 16:05Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number & Year: 16L in 2012
Storm Name: Patty (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 12th day of the month at 15:33:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°27'N 72°12'W (25.45N 72.2W)
B. Center Fix Location: 323 miles (519 km) to the E (85°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,484m (4,869ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the N (352°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 22° at 32kts (From the NNE at ~ 36.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the N (352°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1008mb (29.77 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 32kts (~ 36.8mph) in the north quadrant at 15:25:00Z

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vis.loop of 98 is interesting almost looks like the low is outrunning the convection moving wnw
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4589

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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