Tropical Depression Sixteen has formed; 98L likely to develop

By: Angela Fritz , 6:06 PM GMT on October 11, 2012

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Tropical Depression Sixteen formed from 97L this morning, though continues to be no threat and is expected to dissipate by Friday night. The depression is located east of the Bahamas and north of the Turks and Caicos Islands, and has had organized thunderstorm activity over the past couple of days, though an approaching cold front is beginning to take its toll on the system, which is apparent on satellite loops. Wind shear is around 20 knots from the southwest and increasing, which is exposing the cyclone's center of circulation and will result in the cyclone's demise. The system's thunderstorm activity could reach the far eastern Bahamas on Friday, but it's likely that Sixteen will not impact the islands before dissipating.


Figure 1. Visible satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Sixteen captured at 1:17pm EDT.

98L still likely to develop

Strong thunderstorm activity continues in 98L today, despite strong wind shear to its north, around 30 knots. This wind shear is expected to decrease over the next few days, providing a window for the wave to develop over the weekend. Most of the models are expecting 98L to to strengthen to a tropical storm by Sunday. The GFS and the GFDL even go as far to say that 98L could reach Category 1 hurricane strength. In terms of track, all of the models are forecasting a recurving pattern. The ECMWF pushes the potential cyclone farthest west, possibly reaching Hispaniola. The HWRF carries the system northwest over the next three days, and across Puerto Rico. The GFS has a similar solution this morning, as well. The model with the eastern-most forecast is the GFDL, which expects 98L to track north-northwest, scraping the eastern side of the Lesser Antilles, and avoiding land thereafter.

The National Hurricane Center gives 98L a 50% chance of development over the next 48 hours.

Angela

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283. JRRP
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys I have 98Ls LLCOC near 11.5N 57.5W moving WNW I expect it to be tagged TD 17 or most likely TS by 11pm tonight

to me is 12.8n 58w
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Quoting washingtonian115:
98L looks pretty fugly to me.


Not really, it's a typical sheared October cyclone.
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Hey guys I have 98Ls LLCOC near 11.5N 57.5W moving WNW I expect it to be tagged TD 17 or most likely TS by 11pm tonight
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Being very close to the islands,if it continues to organize I can see 5 AM as the start of advisories.

Definitely a possibility... the NHC won't be nearly as hesitant to classify this as they were to classify 97L since 98L has fairly favorable conditions, plenty of model support, and is impacting land as you said.
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98L looks pretty fugly to me.
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278. JLPR2
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
11AM tomorrow seems pretty realistic for initiation of advisories, maybe even 5AM if it organizes faster.



Really pulling itself together.
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What a difference in the Atlantic since this morning.

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
11AM tomorrow seems pretty realistic for initiation of advisories, maybe even 5AM if it organizes faster.



Being very close to the islands,if it continues to organize I can see 5 AM as the start of advisories.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
11AM tomorrow seems pretty realistic for initiation of advisories, maybe even 5AM if it organizes faster.


Please be 5am as I can write about it and at 11am I will be at my school's pep rally.

Quoting Dakster:


Don;t you wish that was for Largo, FL?

I sometimes forget that people don't get freezing conditions in other parts of the US like I do. I am under another freeze warning tonight, only a matter of time before snow.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
11AM tomorrow seems pretty realistic for initiation of advisories, maybe even 5AM if it organizes faster.

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Quoting LargoFl:

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

* IMPACTS...UNPROTECTED VEGETATION SENSITIVE TO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT RISK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$


Don;t you wish that was for Largo, FL?
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98L

DATA FROM SATELLITES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND THE BARBADOS
WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS HAS CONTINUED
TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
ALSO INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6004
98L is up to 70%, I'm pretty sure it will develop.

DATA FROM SATELLITES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND THE BARBADOS
WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS HAS CONTINUED
TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
ALSO INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Stays at 40% for 97E.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 520 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

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...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

* IMPACTS...UNPROTECTED VEGETATION SENSITIVE TO FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT RISK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$$
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T.C.F.W.
16L/TS/P/CX
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98L/INV/XX/XX
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Quoting 12george1:
I think there should have been at least a tropical storm watch for The Bahamas.


I agree. The NHC have it dissipated tomorrow night but the models , including the GFS, think not.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I'm under a freeze watch up here for tomorrow night... first real blast of Canadian air this year... we need it, the mosquitoes have been crazy up here.

Can you bring it down to South Florida? We haven't had weather that cold since January 2011.
Member Since: August 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 244
I think there should have been at least a tropical storm watch for The Bahamas.
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Quoting Grothar:


So, do you think PATTY will become stationary or do you think PATTY will start moving faster SW. Or will PATTY just meander and not move. I wonder how many people didn't know we would have a PATTY this soon. I wonder how many other storms were named PATTY?


Patty should be somewhere between the Bahamas and the NE coast of Cuba tomorrow afternoon. Slow drift to resume tonight. My best guess.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I'm under a freeze watch up here for tomorrow night... first real blast of Canadian air this year... we need it, the mosquitoes have been crazy up here.


we had frost last night in the burbs
and again tonight after front passes
could even see some wet snow
mix with rain showers as front passes
with temps falling to 34°F
after midnight tonight
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Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
Let's hope that Patty gets sheared to death in the coming days, because if any part of it survives into the Caribbean, All Bets are Off...
Not if Shear has anything to say about it.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I'm under a freeze watch up here for tomorrow night... first real blast of Canadian air this year... we need it, the mosquitoes have been crazy up here.
The mosquitoes haven't been as bad here.Even though the few that are around have been trying to find warmth in homes..The cold nights have been doing a number on those little bastards.
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Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6004
Season is very quickly winding down, still some time for some mischief to brew so we cannot be complacent.

Btw, in south Florida, what a wonderful fall like day. Too bad it is not supposed to last.
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I'm under a freeze watch up here for tomorrow night... first real blast of Canadian air this year... we need it, the mosquitoes have been crazy up here.
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255. beell
Quoting Grothar:


No. I was just messing with Taz, who I thought was a friend and could take a joke. Obviously he likes embarrassing people on the blog, something which I do not do. I had already corrected TD16 to Patty, but as usual he couldn't wait to correct somebody. If I ever see someone put something down incorrectly, I write to them off-blog. I see now that some people just sit and wait to correct someone else.


Sometimes I stand and wait.
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it will be dec soon enough wash
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This is the equivalent of an Atlantic invest in late April:



GFS and Euro develop it. It already looks pretty good.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




hr 189 shows nice 996mb low over lower lakes ne
Now if only this was December and that storm was a little further south and east..
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Patty and Rafael could both use a little of Nadines' mojo.
Nadine had a big enough life span to lend seven days to 3 T.C's and by the looks of it Patty will need some of that badly.Still wanna see if we have another Major this year.The hurricane season is coming to an end..
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Quoting Hurricanes305:


So that means it has gotten stronger probably 50 mph or am I wrong.

Well based on that and this:

11/1745 UTC 26.0N 71.9W T3.0/3.0 16L -- Atlantic

Then it would seem it's a bit stronger than 40mph. With little change in the satellite appearance 45mph at 11PM seems like a good bet to me.
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Quoting Hurricanes305:


So that means it has gotten stronger probably 50 mph or am I wrong.
Probably. CIMSS was saying 35kt earlier.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This is for Patty:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 OCT 2012 Time : 211500 UTC
Lat : 25:47:49 N Lon : 72:30:54 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1003.1mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 2.8 2.9


So that means it has gotten stronger probably 50 mph or am I wrong.
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hr 189 shows nice 996mb low over lower lakes ne
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Poor Patty.She won't be around long to spread her joy around.Rafeal probably won't be anything but a huge rain maker for the islands.Not saying rain can't cause serious problems though.



Patty and Rafael could both use a little of Nadines' mojo.
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This is for Patty:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 OCT 2012 Time : 211500 UTC
Lat : 25:47:49 N Lon : 72:30:54 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.9 /1003.1mb/ 43.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.9 2.8 2.9
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


The intensity is interesting too...

1min sustained winds = 95 knots (JTWC)
2min sustained winds = 85 knots (CMA)
10min sustained winds = 90 knots (JMA)
PAGASA = 85 knots
Taiwain = 85 knots

Yeah, lots of mixed signals right now. On the one hand there's this:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 OCT 2012 Time : 213000 UTC
Lat : 19:28:16 N Lon : 128:46:44 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 931.7mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.1 6.1

Then there's this:

11/2032 UTC 19.6N 128.5E T5.0/5.0 PRAPIROON -- West Pacific

Looks like an EWRC starting though so somewhere between 90-100kts 1 minute seem realistic.
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Does anyone see the upper low sw of PR moving west?

According to the GFS it should be stalled.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 104
243. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Meanwhile in the West Pacific we have typhoon PRAPIROON:



Quite an interesting track forecast. It's not often you see a storm go in for a hard NE recurve only to bail out and turn back north:



The intensity is interesting too...

1min sustained winds = 95 knots (JTWC)
2min sustained winds = 85 knots (CMA)
10min sustained winds = 90 knots (JMA)
PAGASA = 85 knots
Taiwain = 85 knots
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

That thing's still alive?

It's a Cat 2 typhoon, lol... I'd say that qualifies as alive.

Doing an EWRC now, looks like the new eye will be huge:

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Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Strong disturbance east of Islands should develop and dump heavy rains on Puerto Rico on the weekend
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Meanwhile in the West Pacific we have typhoon PRAPIROON:



Quite an interesting track forecast. It's not often you see a storm go in for a hard NE recurve only to bail out and turn back north:


That thing's still alive?
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Poor Patty.She won't be around long to spread her joy around.Rafeal probably won't be anything but a huge rain maker for the islands.Not saying rain can't cause serious problems though.
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Meanwhile in the West Pacific we have typhoon PRAPIROON:



Quite an interesting track forecast. It's not often you see a storm go in for a hard NE recurve only to bail out and turn back north:

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final 144hr gfs 18z
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Looks like Grothar's having fun with PATTY, while she is still alive... Glad to see your enjoying her company gro. ;)


Yeah, might as well enjoy it while I can. Here is an animated image of Tropical Storm PATTY. :)

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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