Tropical Depression Sixteen has formed; 98L likely to develop

By: Angela Fritz , 6:06 PM GMT on October 11, 2012

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Tropical Depression Sixteen formed from 97L this morning, though continues to be no threat and is expected to dissipate by Friday night. The depression is located east of the Bahamas and north of the Turks and Caicos Islands, and has had organized thunderstorm activity over the past couple of days, though an approaching cold front is beginning to take its toll on the system, which is apparent on satellite loops. Wind shear is around 20 knots from the southwest and increasing, which is exposing the cyclone's center of circulation and will result in the cyclone's demise. The system's thunderstorm activity could reach the far eastern Bahamas on Friday, but it's likely that Sixteen will not impact the islands before dissipating.


Figure 1. Visible satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Sixteen captured at 1:17pm EDT.

98L still likely to develop

Strong thunderstorm activity continues in 98L today, despite strong wind shear to its north, around 30 knots. This wind shear is expected to decrease over the next few days, providing a window for the wave to develop over the weekend. Most of the models are expecting 98L to to strengthen to a tropical storm by Sunday. The GFS and the GFDL even go as far to say that 98L could reach Category 1 hurricane strength. In terms of track, all of the models are forecasting a recurving pattern. The ECMWF pushes the potential cyclone farthest west, possibly reaching Hispaniola. The HWRF carries the system northwest over the next three days, and across Puerto Rico. The GFS has a similar solution this morning, as well. The model with the eastern-most forecast is the GFDL, which expects 98L to track north-northwest, scraping the eastern side of the Lesser Antilles, and avoiding land thereafter.

The National Hurricane Center gives 98L a 50% chance of development over the next 48 hours.

Angela

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Quoting pottery:

You can just make out Barbados at the leading edge of the heavy convection there,
They going to get wet tonight and tomorrow....


I can see some lightning flashes far to the east.
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332. Gorty
The question is, can 2012 use up all its names?
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Patty remains a sheared system.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting AussieStorm:
Afternoon all. Dr Masters, you said 97L won't develop yet it's now TS Patty.

Not over the past 24 hours he hasn't.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32705
Quoting AussieStorm:
Afternoon all. Dr Masters, you said 97L won't develop yet it's now TS Patty. mmmmmmmmmmmmm

Good Afternoon/Evening, Aussie.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24795
Afternoon all. Dr Masters, you said 97L won't develop yet it's now TS Patty. mmmmmmmmmmmmm
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
98L has been organizing surprisingly quick. The way things are going, it may get classification at 5am EDT.


You can just make out Barbados at the leading edge of the heavy convection there,
They going to get wet tonight and tomorrow....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24795
98L...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11517
Quoting CaribBoy:


Yeah I see not much is going on around T&T :(

That's cool with me.
Enough rain to top the tanks up, and keep the plants happy.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24795
Good evening everyone. I see we have Tropical Storm Patty, and Invest 98L continues to organize.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
98L has been organizing surprisingly quick. The way things are going, it may get classification at 5am EDT.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32705
Quoting pottery:

A couple of heavy showers in the north of the Island today, but not much going on here.
Looks like most of the convection will miss Trinidad.
Barbados looks to be in the line of fire for heavy stuff later tonight.


Yeah I see not much is going on around T&T :(
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Well Patty is not gigantic in size(all though it appears she is ganing in size) so I can't yet call her fatty patty.
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Can TS patty go to S FL???
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We will probably see 1-3 named storms this season, giving us a final total of 17-19 named storms.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32705
Quoting BahaHurican:
Winds have been getting stronger here all evening, so this seems to be happening. Or else the circulation is growing in size...




Not much breeze here in TCI...
In fact I am making my own...
with a fan : )
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Quoting CaribBoy:
98L is nicely rotating (watch the last two frames)

A couple of heavy showers in the north of the Island today, but not much going on here.
Looks like most of the convection will miss Trinidad.
Barbados looks to be in the line of fire for heavy stuff later tonight.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24795
Quoting BahaHurican:
I dunno... if it doesn't get any worse than this, impacts would likely be like a strong Twave or TD....

But I also think they have seen so many storms pulled NE from that area, or absorbed by fronts, that the model scenario seems rather unlikely.

So I suppose they feel that even if the system lasts long enough to pass intact through the Bahamas, impacts would be so minimal that nobody would even realize it was a named storm...

[shrug] I guess they know what they are doing...


Well, is a matter of opinion,,you haven't had any bad experience with them...but there are others that think otherwise, sometimes they worry to much about failing in there forecasting or afrait of been accused of hypering things....but I think out precaution they should, because after all nobody fools mother nature.
Quoting PRweathercenter:


It seems like invest 98 could take a similar path as Marilyn did in 1995
Over the VI, Vieques and Culebra and brushing eastern Puerto Rico, but this no Marilyn,is a much weaker system...hopefully...
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Quoting JLPR2:


Made a perfect guess. :D


They made an update to the 00z position.

2012101200, , BEST, 0, 124N, 586W, 30, 1006, LO
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11517
wxchaser97 come out on the main blog.
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The vorticity continues to increase.



And the low level convergence.

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Quoting Tazmanian:
i think Rafael may be are last name storm
I'm not calling this one over just yet. I remember Michelle was a rip-roaring cat 4 during the first week of November in 2001...

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Quoting 12george1:
I think there should have been at least a tropical storm watch for The Bahamas.
I dunno... if it doesn't get any worse than this, impacts would likely be like a strong Twave or TD....

But I also think they have seen so many storms pulled NE from that area, or absorbed by fronts, that the model scenario seems rather unlikely.

So I suppose they feel that even if the system lasts long enough to pass intact through the Bahamas, impacts would be so minimal that nobody would even realize it was a named storm...

[shrug] I guess they know what they are doing...


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hot spot in full view and earth directed now and the next few days
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then oh nos we could see the S and T storm in late oct or NOV
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i think Rafael may be are last name storm
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98L is nicely rotating (watch the last two frames)
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


we had frost last night in the burbs
and again tonight after front passes
could even see some wet snow
mix with rain showers as front passes
with temps falling to 34°F
after midnight tonight


Kinda like a weather haiku
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Quoting kmanislander:


Patty should be somewhere between the Bahamas and the NE coast of Cuba tomorrow afternoon. Slow drift to resume tonight. My best guess.
Winds have been getting stronger here all evening, so this seems to be happening. Or else the circulation is growing in size...

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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Now that is a good looking storm.To bad we didn't get to track more storms like that out in the open atlantic this year.
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301. JLPR2
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
00z Best Track for 98L

AL, 98, 2012101200, , BEST, 0, 125N, 588W, 30, 1006, LO


Made a perfect guess. :D
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
00z Best Track for Patty up to 40kts.

AL, 16, 2012101200, , BEST, 0, 260N, 725W, 40, 1005, TS

She may get to 50mph before peaking if she wants to, it will be interesting to see what she does if she makes it into the Caribbean.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
00z Best Track for 98L

AL, 98, 2012101200, , BEST, 0, 125N, 588W, 30, 1006, LO

I think we should development into a TD tomorrow and TS Rafael tomorrow night or Saturday.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
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00z Best Track for 98L

AL, 98, 2012101200, , BEST, 0, 125N, 588W, 30, 1006, LO
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00z Best Track for Patty up to 40kts.

AL, 16, 2012101200, , BEST, 0, 260N, 725W, 40, 1005, TS
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295. JLPR2
Quoting JRRP:

to me is 12.8n 59w
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I'd say something like 12.6n 58.6w


Yeah, I agree.
I'll say 12.5N 58.8w.

Which is right in the same area.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting PRweathercenter:


It seems like invest 98 could take a similar path as Marilyn did in 1995
It would appear Marilyn is smiling at the U.S.Maybe because she could never pay a visit.
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Increasing numbers for 98L

11/2345 UTC 12.8N 58.6W T1.0/1.0 98L
11/1745 UTC 12.0N 58.3W TOO WEAK 98L
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It seems like invest 98 could take a similar path as Marilyn did in 1995
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98L has really pulled itself together since when I left earlier today. 70% is a good call...should see classification sometime tomorrow is organization continues.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32705
290. JRRP
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I'd say something like 12.6n 58.6w

lol i meant 59w
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Please be 5am as I can write about it and at 11am I will be at my school's pep rally.


I sometimes forget that people don't get freezing conditions in other parts of the US like I do. I am under another freeze warning tonight, only a matter of time before snow.


We (almost) never get a freeze or frost warning. Only a few times in the past 40 years can I remember seeing frost in the morning. This is of course, before the sun comes up. By the time daylight hits, it is long gone.

I vaguely remember a snow flurry in the mid 70's and it supposedly flurried a couple of years ago in western Dade.

Last winter was pathetic. I don't think we even hit 50.
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288. 7544
patty is looking good at this hour anyone think she will not get far down to cuba and make a drastic west turn somehwere down the road hmmmmmm
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287. JRRP
and i think 98L will enter to the carib around 14n 61w
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Quoting JRRP:

to me is 12.8n 58w

I'd say something like 12.6n 58.6w
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not really, it's a typical sheared October cyclone.
Well if you think about it and compare it to Danny of 09 I guess it does look like a decent sytem.
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It's possible Bermuda could see impacts from 98L down the road:

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283. JRRP
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys I have 98Ls LLCOC near 11.5N 57.5W moving WNW I expect it to be tagged TD 17 or most likely TS by 11pm tonight

to me is 12.8n 58w
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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