Tropical Depression Sixteen has formed; 98L likely to develop

By: Angela Fritz , 6:06 PM GMT on October 11, 2012

Share this Blog
31
+

Tropical Depression Sixteen formed from 97L this morning, though continues to be no threat and is expected to dissipate by Friday night. The depression is located east of the Bahamas and north of the Turks and Caicos Islands, and has had organized thunderstorm activity over the past couple of days, though an approaching cold front is beginning to take its toll on the system, which is apparent on satellite loops. Wind shear is around 20 knots from the southwest and increasing, which is exposing the cyclone's center of circulation and will result in the cyclone's demise. The system's thunderstorm activity could reach the far eastern Bahamas on Friday, but it's likely that Sixteen will not impact the islands before dissipating.


Figure 1. Visible satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Sixteen captured at 1:17pm EDT.

98L still likely to develop

Strong thunderstorm activity continues in 98L today, despite strong wind shear to its north, around 30 knots. This wind shear is expected to decrease over the next few days, providing a window for the wave to develop over the weekend. Most of the models are expecting 98L to to strengthen to a tropical storm by Sunday. The GFS and the GFDL even go as far to say that 98L could reach Category 1 hurricane strength. In terms of track, all of the models are forecasting a recurving pattern. The ECMWF pushes the potential cyclone farthest west, possibly reaching Hispaniola. The HWRF carries the system northwest over the next three days, and across Puerto Rico. The GFS has a similar solution this morning, as well. The model with the eastern-most forecast is the GFDL, which expects 98L to track north-northwest, scraping the eastern side of the Lesser Antilles, and avoiding land thereafter.

The National Hurricane Center gives 98L a 50% chance of development over the next 48 hours.

Angela

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 383 - 333

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14Blog Index

Quoting AussieStorm:


Invest 97L east of the Bahamas
A tropical wave located about 250 miles east of the central Bahama Islands (Invest 97L) is headed slowly southwards. The disturbance is well-organized, with a developing surface circulation and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. Wind shear is a high 20 knots over 97L, and the shear has pushed all the storm's heavy thunderstorms to its east side. Shear is expected to increase sharply later today as a cold front overtakes the system. This cold front should be capable of destroying 97L by Friday.
97L is now Patty.


I think he meant our Friday, not yours :) It's still Thursday here.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26125
Quoting Grothar:


Ok, Geoff you asked for it!!!

If this turns around and hits Greenland, would it be a Patty Melt?


Oh my aching tooth.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11151
Quoting bajelayman2:


I'm near Wildey, which side are you? East? Yeah, crickets here are going constantly.

I'm in christ church...near lodge road
Member Since: May 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 115
Quoting SLU:


Well it means that the conditions are getting more favourable for strenthening and with the abundance of moisture available, if the upper level winds relax then this system could get stronger than expected.


Ok thanks for explaining SLU
Member Since: May 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 115
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Pretty sure he meant to land and not for development.

Could be wrong.


Invest 97L east of the Bahamas
A tropical wave located about 250 miles east of the central Bahama Islands (Invest 97L) is headed slowly southwards. The disturbance is well-organized, with a developing surface circulation and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. Wind shear is a high 20 knots over 97L, and the shear has pushed all the storm's heavy thunderstorms to its east side. Shear is expected to increase sharply later today as a cold front overtakes the system. This cold front should be capable of destroying 97L by Friday.
97L is now Patty.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
377. SLU
Quoting barbados246:


And what does that mean for a novice like me...please explain


Well it means that the conditions are getting more favourable for strenthening and with the abundance of moisture available, if the upper level winds relax then this system could get stronger than expected.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5127
Quoting barbados246:


At least you can hear the crickets; i'm not hearing a thing, outside is REALLY still and quiet.


I'm near Wildey, which side are you? East? Yeah, crickets here are going constantly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
PATTY needs a peppermint...



Ok, Geoff you asked for it!!!

If this turns around and hits Greenland, would it be a Patty Melt?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26125
Ecmwf has a track south of PR and passing the mona passage as a weaker system and the CMC has it hitting us as a TS, ngp also wants to hit PR and last the NAM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
It looks like the heavy thunderstorms are being removed from the center. May be just a swirl will be left over.



Patty cake patty cake, bakers man, bake me a cake as fast as you can. Arrrrhhhhh Patty is naked, lol
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting etxwx:
Quake of magnitude 6.7 hits eastern Indonesia

SYDNEY | Thu Oct 11, 2012 8:54pm EDT
(Reuters) - An earthquake measuring 6.7 magnitude hit eastern Indonesia near the Aru islands on Friday, said the U.S. Geological Survey.

The quake, which was originally measured at 6.9, struck at a depth of 33 km (20 miles), 80 km (50 miles) north-northwest of Dobo on the Aru islands, said the USGS.

The U.S. Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said a destructive widespread tsunami was not likely to be generated by the earthquake, but that there was a small possibility of a local tsunami.


(Reporting by Michael Perry; Editing by Ed Davies)


I got the email from USGS for that quake. Today is 10 years since the Bali bombing when 202 people were murdered, 88 Australians, 7 Americans, 38 Indonesians, 24 from United Kingdom. In total there was 24 countries that had people killed.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
It looks like the heavy thunderstorms are being removed from the center. May be just a swirl will be left over.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26125
PATTY needs a peppermint...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11151
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26125
Quoting SLU:
Also look at the high level cirrus clouds directly over Barbados. Notice how they are starting to move away from the center towards the west. That's a bad sign because it means that the upper level winds are lessening thus allowing the upper level ouflow of 98L to expand westwards.



And what does that mean for a novice like me...please explain
Member Since: May 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 115
Quoting bajelayman2:


At least you can hear the crickets; i'm not hearing a thing, outside is REALLY still and quiet.
Member Since: May 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 115
Quoting pottery:

Good Afternoon/Evening, Aussie.

Good Evening Pot, how is your weather. Here it's abnormally cold due to this "super" low. Last night they called it Snowtober. There is snow from North of Adelaide, South Australia into Victoria and all the way up the great dividing range in New South Wales and into southern Queensland.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
I am pretty sure Patty was a depression like 12 hours earlier than it was declare.in post analysis the NHC may put it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

Looks heavy coming in to you.

Ha. 'Good' showers? More like a drenching. Calm before the stowm right now, quiet aside from the crickets.....

The specific location of 98L is not good for us, that is the spawning ground for such as Tomas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

A couple of heavy showers in the north of the Island today, but not much going on here.
Looks like most of the convection will miss Trinidad.
Barbados looks to be in the line of fire for heavy stuff later tonight.

Hi Pottery, yup some heavy stuff. We have a few pockets of areas that flood easily, water is a powerful thing.

One other issue is that the officials take SOOOOO long to decide whether to close schools or not.

That may not seem a big issue, but when so many children depend on bus and the buses depend on clear roads, it gets difficult, plus we have some roads near schools that become treacherous in heavy rains i.e. a couple of feet of water is possible and running water can drown.

But seems no one nowadays is willing to stick their neck out and if they are worng.,...big deal, admit it. But at least make a decision, preferably err on the side of caution and safety.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

You better check out what Dr Masters said in his last blog. 98L may develop this weekend; 97L no threat. At the time he wrote this blog both 97L and 98L were at 50%.

Pretty sure he meant to land and not for development.

Could be wrong.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Invest 97L east of the Bahamas

A tropical wave located about 250 miles east of the central Bahama Islands (Invest 97L) is headed slowly southwards. The disturbance is well-organized, with a developing surface circulation and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. Wind shear is a high 20 knots over 97L, and the shear has pushed all the storm's heavy thunderstorms to its east side. Shear is expected to increase sharply later today as a cold front overtakes the system. This cold front should be capable of destroying 97L by Friday.
97L no threat





Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:57 AM GMT on October 11, 2012
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
360. etxwx
Quake of magnitude 6.7 hits eastern Indonesia

SYDNEY | Thu Oct 11, 2012 8:54pm EDT
(Reuters) - An earthquake measuring 6.7 magnitude hit eastern Indonesia near the Aru islands on Friday, said the U.S. Geological Survey.

The quake, which was originally measured at 6.9, struck at a depth of 33 km (20 miles), 80 km (50 miles) north-northwest of Dobo on the Aru islands, said the USGS.

The U.S. Pacific Tsunami Warning Center said a destructive widespread tsunami was not likely to be generated by the earthquake, but that there was a small possibility of a local tsunami.


(Reporting by Michael Perry; Editing by Ed Davies)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not over the past 24 hours he hasn't.

You better check out what Dr Masters said in his last blog. 98L may develop this weekend; 97L no threat. At the time he wrote this blog both 97L and 98L were at 50%.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Dont look now, but pre-Sandy has emerged from Africa.
Finally, the 2012 hurricane season begins. She has Cat 4 written all over her.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
He said it this morning a couple hours before it was declared a TD.

Invest 97L east of the Bahamas

A tropical wave located about 250 miles east of the central Bahama Islands (Invest 97L) is headed slowly southwards. The disturbance is well-organized, with a developing surface circulation and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. Wind shear is a high 20 knots over 97L, and the shear has pushed all the storm's heavy thunderstorms to its east side. Shear is expected to increase sharply later today as a cold front overtakes the system. This cold front should be capable of destroying 97L by Friday.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32024
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
355. SLU
Also look at the high level cirrus clouds directly over Barbados. Notice how they are starting to move away from the center towards the west. That's a bad sign because it means that the upper level winds are lessening thus allowing the upper level ouflow of 98L to expand westwards.

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5127
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not over the past 24 hours he hasn't.
He said it this morning a couple hours before it was declared a TD.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting EstherD:


Most of you are probably too young to remember this, but you had better watch out, because some girls named Patty pack a pretty good punch...

In her (and the [Peanuts cartoon] strip's) second appearance, Patty is shown walking down the sidewalk reciting "Little girls are made of sugar and spice and everything nice." She then punches Charlie Brown in the face and, without missing a beat, continues, "That's what little girls are made of!" [Wikipedia]

Poor Charlie...

He never could get to grips with Patty.
Or his kite.
Or ball games.
Or anything.....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
351. EstherD
1:42 AM GMT on October 12, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well Patty is not gigantic in size(all though it appears she is ganing in size) so I can't yet call her fatty patty.


Most of you are probably too young to remember this, but you had better watch out, because some girls named Patty pack a pretty good punch...

In her (and the [Peanuts cartoon] strip's) second appearance, Patty is shown walking down the sidewalk reciting "Little girls are made of sugar and spice and everything nice." She then punches Charlie Brown in the face and, without missing a beat, continues, "That's what little girls are made of!" [Wikipedia]
Member Since: November 10, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 191
350. Civicane49
1:42 AM GMT on October 12, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
who can post a Barbados radar please...? I'll appreciate it


Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
349. pottery
1:42 AM GMT on October 12, 2012
Quoting Grothar:


I have no idea what you mean.



Excellent!
Tres avant garde.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
348. Grothar
1:40 AM GMT on October 12, 2012
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26125
347. trHUrrIXC5MMX
1:38 AM GMT on October 12, 2012
who can post a Barbados radar please...? I'll appreciate it
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
346. Grothar
1:38 AM GMT on October 12, 2012
Quoting pottery:

#338, Grothar.

You've been playing with the crayons again haven't you....


I have no idea what you mean.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26125
345. SLU
1:38 AM GMT on October 12, 2012
I'm willing to bet a RECON would find 40 - 45mph SFMR winds with this system. They got 45mph winds in ERNESTO in that same location in August with far less convection and not as well organised.

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5127
344. pottery
1:37 AM GMT on October 12, 2012
Quoting shamanTT:


There was a thunderstorm this morning, but since then it has been very calm.

I heard the thunder from here !
Friend in Lady Chancellor Rd said they had a cloudburst, but only for 20 mins or so.
They are all worried in Maraval, Diego etc. hoping for no floods....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
343. pottery
1:35 AM GMT on October 12, 2012
Quoting barbados246:


I really do hope we get some good showers

Looks heavy coming in to you.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
342. shamanTT
1:35 AM GMT on October 12, 2012
Quoting pottery:

Seeing that too.
Long way out.

Any rain in South?


There was a thunderstorm this morning, but since then it has been very calm.
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 52
341. pottery
1:35 AM GMT on October 12, 2012
Quoting Grothar:



#338, Grothar.

You've been playing with the crayons again haven't you....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
340. Grothar
1:34 AM GMT on October 12, 2012


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26125
339. barbados246
1:34 AM GMT on October 12, 2012
Quoting pottery:

A couple of heavy showers in the north of the Island today, but not much going on here.
Looks like most of the convection will miss Trinidad.
Barbados looks to be in the line of fire for heavy stuff later tonight.


I really do hope we get some good showers
Member Since: May 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 115
338. Grothar
1:33 AM GMT on October 12, 2012


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26125
337. Civicane49
1:32 AM GMT on October 12, 2012


Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
336. pottery
1:32 AM GMT on October 12, 2012
Quoting shamanTT:


I can see some lightning flashes far to the east.

Seeing that too.
Long way out.

Any rain in South?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
335. washingtonian115
1:31 AM GMT on October 12, 2012
In Sydney Australia it is currently 12:31 P.M.Lucky it's all ready Friday over there.Well we'll have only 3 hours east coast time and 6 hours for you west coasters.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16971
334. CaribBoy
1:31 AM GMT on October 12, 2012
Quoting pottery:

That's cool with me.
Enough rain to top the tanks up, and keep the plants happy.


This month is noticeably wetter than september so far, but my plants still need rain lol.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6168
333. shamanTT
1:31 AM GMT on October 12, 2012
Quoting pottery:

You can just make out Barbados at the leading edge of the heavy convection there,
They going to get wet tonight and tomorrow....


I can see some lightning flashes far to the east.
Member Since: August 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 52

Viewing: 383 - 333

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
77 °F
Partly Cloudy