Tropical Depression Sixteen has formed; 98L likely to develop

By: Angela Fritz , 6:06 PM GMT on October 11, 2012

Share this Blog
31
+

Tropical Depression Sixteen formed from 97L this morning, though continues to be no threat and is expected to dissipate by Friday night. The depression is located east of the Bahamas and north of the Turks and Caicos Islands, and has had organized thunderstorm activity over the past couple of days, though an approaching cold front is beginning to take its toll on the system, which is apparent on satellite loops. Wind shear is around 20 knots from the southwest and increasing, which is exposing the cyclone's center of circulation and will result in the cyclone's demise. The system's thunderstorm activity could reach the far eastern Bahamas on Friday, but it's likely that Sixteen will not impact the islands before dissipating.


Figure 1. Visible satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Sixteen captured at 1:17pm EDT.

98L still likely to develop

Strong thunderstorm activity continues in 98L today, despite strong wind shear to its north, around 30 knots. This wind shear is expected to decrease over the next few days, providing a window for the wave to develop over the weekend. Most of the models are expecting 98L to to strengthen to a tropical storm by Sunday. The GFS and the GFDL even go as far to say that 98L could reach Category 1 hurricane strength. In terms of track, all of the models are forecasting a recurving pattern. The ECMWF pushes the potential cyclone farthest west, possibly reaching Hispaniola. The HWRF carries the system northwest over the next three days, and across Puerto Rico. The GFS has a similar solution this morning, as well. The model with the eastern-most forecast is the GFDL, which expects 98L to track north-northwest, scraping the eastern side of the Lesser Antilles, and avoiding land thereafter.

The National Hurricane Center gives 98L a 50% chance of development over the next 48 hours.

Angela

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 433 - 383

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14Blog Index

Quoting pcola57:


Domican WU Radar


That is some image, pcola. If you hold your mouse and left click on that image, and move it to the left, you get a great view of 98L about to impact the islands there. I never saw this one before.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Re. Patty, this is the kind of high in place that moved Ike down into Cuba instead of NW over the Bahamas as originally forecast... certainly the track is viable. I'm more interested to see how well the whole thing holds together over the holiday weekend. It seems like [from the NHC discussion] the shear may not be as high as they were thinking.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
431. 7544
Quoting BahaHurican:
GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT PATTY COULD REACH THE BAHAMAS AS A TROPICAL STORM...AND
THEREFORE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ISLANDS.


it was also unlikely she will be patty and head sw and now the cone is extened out so like i say no one know about patty except patty still keeeping one eye on her too
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
Stopped to watch the US VP debate earlier... it was much better than the last one earlier this month - much more back and forth and "fireworks", plus a much better moderator.

Still not as much fun as watching 98L get its act together, though. I should have known better... :o\
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HuracandelCaribe:
Is SW of Barbados

I see it just west of Barbados with not much rain with it moving wnw.It will probably be naked when the sun hits.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
428. 7544
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Can TS patty go to S FL???


hmmm maybe she will not make it that far south to cuba but around the bahammas make a drastic west turn but it just seems shes been making her own rules so far so ill go with patty lol
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6874
Quoting 12george1:
I said this earlier but I think it is more important now. It appears that Patty will at least reach the Bahamas, so why is there still not at least a tropical storm watch?
GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT PATTY COULD REACH THE BAHAMAS AS A TROPICAL STORM...AND
THEREFORE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ISLANDS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here comes Rafael with 98L, lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is SW of Barbados
Quoting Gearsts:
Center passing over barbados?Link

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
Florida is in the Cone of Uncertainty.



I am in Florida, probably at the north edge of the dark green color.
Member Since: August 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 260


Hmmm.... now this is looking rather different... it would be pretty interesting tomorrow to wake up to a TC passing overhead.... lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
422. SLU
The center of 98L seems to have moved further west near 12.8n 59.8w or about 20 miles SW of Barbados. Plus the winds in Barbados have now turned to the south with means the center has passed that location.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Center passing over barbados?Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The LLC of 98L looks to be near 60.5w 12.3n

Winds in Saint Lucia are NE and Barbados SE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Florida is in the Cone of Uncertainty.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 12george1:
I said this earlier but I think it is more important now. It appears that Patty will at least reach the Bahamas, so why is there still not at least a tropical storm watch?

Maybe because the NHC strongly believes TS conditions won't be felt in the Bahamas. If they felt TS conditions would happen there a watch would have been issued. This isn't said in a mean way btw.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting Paracleet:
couldn't be here Barbados nothing as yet. Get your facts correct...


Please clarify as I'm not sure what you mean Paracleet..
All I did was post some radar images..
I offered no opinion..
Nothing more or nothing less.. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I said this earlier but I think it is more important now. It appears that Patty will at least reach the Bahamas, so why is there still not at least a tropical storm watch?
Member Since: August 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 260
Quoting pcola57:


Domican WU Radar
couldn't be here Barbados nothing as yet. Get your facts correct...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pcola57:


Domican WU Radar
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
just visited a dominica weather blog, they are really getting the rains from 98 now


Domican WU Radar
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Looks like Rafael in the making. For what it's worth, I can find no recorded instance of there being more than 16 named storms in 3 consecutive years in the Atlantic basin.

This is the most active 3 year period in Atlantic Basin*... Not counting the 2003-2005 period... because 2005 pretty just bullshits the whole entire reasoning behind "averages". lol.

03'-05' = 58 Storms

10'-12' = 55 Storms
(Counting Pre-Rafael)

We need to get 20 named storms this season for it to be a tie...3 more storms... I think 1-2 is plausible at this time...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm heading off for the night, bye guys.

Tonight is the first night we've turned our heat on. If it decides to set off the fire alarm in the middle of the night like it did last year, I'm going to be one unhappy school dude. Lol.

Night TA, do you guys get your furnaces checked or what? Anyway it is another cold night up here which I really don't mind.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
I'm heading off for the night, bye guys.

Tonight is the first night we've turned our heat on. If it decides to set off the fire alarm in the middle of the night like it did last year, I'm going to be one unhappy school dude. Lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32860
TROPICAL STORM PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE TIGHT
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS...JUST INSIDE THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CANOPY...DUE TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. THIS SHEAR PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN CONSENSUS 00Z DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN ADT
ESTIMATE OF T2.9/43 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 40 KT.

RECENT SSMIS...TRMM...AND WINDSAT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE PATTY HAS
REMAINED ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. LITTLE
MOVEMENT...OR PERHAPS A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP...IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN NORTHEASTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND BENEATH UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. BY 36
HOURS AND BEYOND...THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE LOW-/MID-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASING AND
FORCING PATTY IN A SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER
THE ATLANTIC. THE EXPECTED SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WILL ALSO FORCE
PATTY INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND BECOME VERTICALLY SHALLOW...AND DEGENERATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW OR TROUGH THAT GETS ADVECTED SOUTHWESTWARD OR
WESTWARD BY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. SINCE PATTY IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED...ADDITONAL FORECAST POINTS HAVE BEEN ADDED. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE...
AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECASTS...SINCE THOSE MODELS REFLECT A MORE
ROBUST TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.

A FORTUITOUS 11/2031 UTC DROPSONDE REPORT RECEIVED FROM AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN REGION INDICATED THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM 850-300 MB
WAS MUCH LESS THAN THE 28-30 KT 850-200 MB SHEAR ASSESSED BY THE
GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL. THIS MIGHT EXPLAIN WHY PATTY HAS REMAINED
WELL-ORGANIZED TODAY DESPITE WHAT OTHERWISE APPEARS TO BE RATHER
HOSTILE SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE CURRENT SHEAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT NORTHWARD AND TO
THE EAST OF PATTY...WHICH ACTS TO DECREASE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM AND CAUSE THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS TO DECOUPLE.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE LGEM
AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT PATTY COULD REACH THE BAHAMAS AS A TROPICAL STORM...AND
THEREFORE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ISLANDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 25.9N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 25.8N 72.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 25.7N 72.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 25.5N 72.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 25.0N 73.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 24.0N 77.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0000Z 23.0N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32860
A month into Spring down in Australia and the eastern mountain range is covered in snow - no wonder I'm cold today! Roads around my area are closed, people in their cars are waiting it out on the highways. Very blistery conditions for us!

Hope the link works and sorry for the outside website :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Since it hasn't been posted yet. ;)

...PATTY STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT MEANDERS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...

11:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 11
Location: 25.9°N 72.5°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32860
Hmmmm, NHC takes Patty to Cuba. If she somehow survives the shear things could get interesting, though she likely won't.

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Tropical Storm PATTY
...PATTY STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT MEANDERS
WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
11:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 11
Location: 25.9 N 72.5 W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
...PATTY STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT MEANDERS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
11:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 11
Location: 25.9°N 72.5°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PATTY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...PATTY STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AS IT MEANDERS WELL TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 72.5W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Patty up to 45mph per NHC.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24579
TROPICAL STORM PATTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
0300 UTC FRI OCT 12 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 72.5W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 72.5W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 72.5W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 25.8N 72.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 25.7N 72.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.5N 72.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.0N 73.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 24.0N 77.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 23.0N 81.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 72.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For anyone that cares:

2012 remaining names: Rafael, Sandy, Tony, Valerie, William

2013 names: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Ingrid, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo,Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, Wendy

New names are bold.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening, everyone.

Sitting here catching up on the blog. Of course, all interests over here are on 98. Boats are already being moved into the mangroves rather than waiting for the mad rush (which I personally hope doesn't happen)!

Lindy
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
393. etxwx
Additional information on the sunspot activity coming into view from Spaceweather.com
ADVANCING SUNSPOTS: For the past two weeks, solar activity has been relatively low. Now, a change is in the offing. The farside of the sun is peppered with sunspots, and some of them are beginning to turn toward Earth. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed this pair of active regions advancing over the eastern limb during the early hours of Oct. 11th:

Underlying each nest of glowing magnetic loops is a dark sunspot that poses a threat for solar flares. NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of M-class solar flares and a 5% chance of X-flares during the next 24 hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
392. JLPR2
Dynamic models:



Looks like 98L wants to visit almost every island in the Lesser Antilles. :\
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting bajelayman2:
Night all, keep safe, take care Barbados246.


thanks and you also have a good night
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


Very nice, next D-max might push it to TD status.


Agreed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Night all, keep safe, take care Barbados246.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
387. JLPR2
Quoting Civicane49:
98L is organizing well.



Very nice, next D-max might push it to TD status.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting Civicane49:
98L is organizing well.



Looks like Rafael in the making. For what it's worth, I can find no recorded instance of there being more than 16 named storms in 3 consecutive years in the Atlantic basin.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24579
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Oh my aching tooth.


See, we've been trying to tell you you're a pain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
98L is organizing well. We should see Rafael soon.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:


Invest 97L east of the Bahamas
A tropical wave located about 250 miles east of the central Bahama Islands (Invest 97L) is headed slowly southwards. The disturbance is well-organized, with a developing surface circulation and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. Wind shear is a high 20 knots over 97L, and the shear has pushed all the storm's heavy thunderstorms to its east side. Shear is expected to increase sharply later today as a cold front overtakes the system. This cold front should be capable of destroying 97L by Friday.
97L is now Patty.


I think he meant our Friday, not yours :) It's still Thursday here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 433 - 383

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron