Tropical Depression Sixteen has formed; 98L likely to develop

By: Angela Fritz , 6:06 PM GMT on October 11, 2012

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Tropical Depression Sixteen formed from 97L this morning, though continues to be no threat and is expected to dissipate by Friday night. The depression is located east of the Bahamas and north of the Turks and Caicos Islands, and has had organized thunderstorm activity over the past couple of days, though an approaching cold front is beginning to take its toll on the system, which is apparent on satellite loops. Wind shear is around 20 knots from the southwest and increasing, which is exposing the cyclone's center of circulation and will result in the cyclone's demise. The system's thunderstorm activity could reach the far eastern Bahamas on Friday, but it's likely that Sixteen will not impact the islands before dissipating.


Figure 1. Visible satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Sixteen captured at 1:17pm EDT.

98L still likely to develop

Strong thunderstorm activity continues in 98L today, despite strong wind shear to its north, around 30 knots. This wind shear is expected to decrease over the next few days, providing a window for the wave to develop over the weekend. Most of the models are expecting 98L to to strengthen to a tropical storm by Sunday. The GFS and the GFDL even go as far to say that 98L could reach Category 1 hurricane strength. In terms of track, all of the models are forecasting a recurving pattern. The ECMWF pushes the potential cyclone farthest west, possibly reaching Hispaniola. The HWRF carries the system northwest over the next three days, and across Puerto Rico. The GFS has a similar solution this morning, as well. The model with the eastern-most forecast is the GFDL, which expects 98L to track north-northwest, scraping the eastern side of the Lesser Antilles, and avoiding land thereafter.

The National Hurricane Center gives 98L a 50% chance of development over the next 48 hours.

Angela

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Quoting JLPR2:
Models are shifting to the worst possible scenario for the NE Caribbean.



BUT VERY INTERESTING lol.
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Quoting allancalderini:
Is that the reason the models are trending more west southwest with Patty?

I really don't understand the contradiction in the models for these 2 systems.

Patty is W-S/W and 98 is NN/W.

The highs are not affecting them the same way ?
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Quoting JLPR2:
Models are shifting to the worst possible scenario for the NE Caribbean.



Kinda figured all along that the models were too far to the right. I don't care what time of year it is, you don't get a system below 10N to recurve before the Antilles.
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Quoting pottery:

True....
Now , the models are bringing it towards Puerto Rico and VI, I guess responding to the WNW,movement of this thing in the past few hours...
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Quoting JLPR2:
Models are shifting to the worst possible scenario for the NE Caribbean.

Is that the reason the models are trending more west southwest with Patty?
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Quoting JLPR2:
Models are shifting to the worst possible scenario for the NE Caribbean.


True....
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477. JLPR2
Models are shifting to the worst possible scenario for the NE Caribbean.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting CaribBoy:
Link

Watch the wind direction in Barbados...

I was looking at that a little while ago too.
Note how the convection at the leading edge (seen nicely on rainbow as well) is jumping south right now.

I don't like that !
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Quoting CaribBoy:
Link

Watch the wind direction in Barbados...


You can see an exposed COC heading west to pass south of St. Vincent, though it appears the MLC is still due east of here judging by the cloud motions.
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Could this be the COC (just NW if Barbados) ?

Link
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Quoting CaribBoy:


Lol that's huge.. and certainly not accurate.

I don't know.
"Freak Wave" ??
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Quoting pottery:

Bouy 41101 reports a 42' wave @ 2:00 GMT. (2 hours ago)
I suspect that's not accurate, as previous recordings were 9'-12'.


Yeah, that wave height seems a bit improbable, especially given the supposed strength of the system.
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Link

Watch the wind direction in Barbados...
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Quoting pottery:

Bouy 41101 reports a 42' wave @ 2:00 GMT. (2 hours ago)
I suspect that's not accurate, as previous recordings were 9'-12'.


Lol that's huge.. and certainly not accurate.
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Quoting LemieT:


I agree. Well I'm hoping for some, and hopefully the models pan out. The northern islands definitely need more rain than we do. It's parched. I have a friend in Antigua who says its been quite dry this season.


That's true..
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I'm starting to doze off here so I'm heading to bed myself before I get a spacebar mark on my forehead......
'

Good night Baha...
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Quoting CaribBoy:
Also, 98L is looking pretty boring tonight. Very disappointing, hopefully DMAX will do something to it..

Bouy 41101 reports a 42' wave @ 2:00 GMT. (2 hours ago)
I suspect that's not accurate, as previous recordings were 9'-12'.
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Quoting CaribBoy:


Sorry to hear you didn't get anything yet. I'm in St Maarten and still not certain to get any significant weather from 98L. What a shame for a system being so close!


I agree. Well I'm hoping for some, and hopefully the models pan out. The northern islands definitely need more rain than we do. It's parched. I have a friend in Antigua who says its been quite dry this season.
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I see 98L going straight NORTH! :( :(
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Stationary Patty
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463. 7544
opps looks like shes trying to ne again ? or the big red blob is anyway lol
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Hello from about 50km east of you, Are the trains running, by the looks of your photo it doesn't look likely. Stay warm.
I'm just getting pouring rain and gusty winds here.


The trains are out due to downed trees on the line. Still really gusty down where I live so I can imagine the wind up the top!
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I'm starting to doze off here so I'm heading to bed myself before I get a spacebar mark on my forehead......
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Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 134
Quoting TropicalStormIsaac:

Woohoo I've been unbanned. Thanks Admin, I have no idea why I was banned in the 1st place.

I am in the Blue Mountains of Sydney, It's pouring with snow here right now. I went down the street to see if the trains were running and took this photo.



Gosh, you live just up the road from me ( Springwood ) I wondered why it was so bloody cold and then I saw the paper with all the photos! Amazing for this time of year! That's a great photo :)
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Also, 98L is looking pretty boring tonight. Very disappointing, hopefully DMAX will do something to it..
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Quoting BahaHurican:
It's been pretty weird how rain has just totally avoided some areas this season....


including the Northern Leewards.
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Quoting LemieT:


I sound almost like Cariboy, who I totally understand btw.


Sorry to hear you didn't get anything yet. I'm in St Maarten and still not certain to get any significant weather from 98L. What a shame for a system being so close!
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Experts: Global Warming means more Antarctic Ice
Link
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454. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #9
TYPHOON NINA (PRAPIROON)
11:00 AM PhST October 12 2012
========================================

Typhoon "NINA" has maintained its strength as it moves northward slowly

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Nina [958 hPa] located at 19.8°N 128.7°E or 630 km east of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly.

Additional Information
=======================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 650 km diameter of the typhoon.

Typhoon "NINA" is still far to directly affect any part of the country.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the northern and western Seaboards of northern Luzon and the eastern Seaboard of Luzon and Visayas due to big waves generated by Typhoon "NINA".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46151
So.... 98L is a bust?
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Quoting AussieStorm:

As you see from my fellow Sydney-sider photo it's normal to get snow this time of year, sure down at the snowy mountains but not all the way up to ranges into southern Queensland.

Yeah, it's not normal. very weird. Just last week we were worried about bush fires now we have snow. Fingers crossed we don't lose power.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, Oz... kinda hard to imagine Sydney area still getting snow and freezing rain this late in the spring... That's like mid-April to the northers...

As you see from my fellow Sydney-sider it's normal to get snow this time of year, sure down at the snowy mountains but not all the way up to ranges into southern Queensland.
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Quoting LemieT:


I sound almost like Cariboy, who I totally understand btw.
It's been pretty weird how rain has just totally avoided some areas this season....
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Quoting LemieT:
Well this is truly amazing. An invest/TD/TS passing within 20 mi of my island, and not a thing happening. This reminds me of when the center of Ernesto passed earlier this year. It could be clearly seen at 12.8N, 58.5W, or basically due east. Next thing I knew, it was streaming by at 14.1N 59-60W due to a center relocation. All of the rain we had was the next as the center passed SW of St. Lucia.
I am at least hoping for some sort of action good rain and wind from 98L/TD17/Rafael. It's too close to not give us a taste of something. Thankfully, it's not another Tomas situation, though we were also spared the worst by about 20nm in the end.


I sound almost like Cariboy, who I totally understand btw.
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Quoting Grothar:


Looks like just the normal blow up of convection down there.

Thank you Sir. Still not good for the quake affected area.
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Quoting Grothar:


That is some image, pcola. If you hold your mouse and left click on that image, and move it to the left, you get a great view of 98L about to impact the islands there. I never saw this one before.


TY Gro..Pretty cool eh..
The Cuban Radar is down or I would have posted that one too.. :)
(PS..I know there's a joke there but it's not for a PG audience.. LOL... :)
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Hello from about 50km east of you, Are the trains running, by the looks of your photo it doesn't look likely. Stay warm.
I'm just getting pouring rain and gusty winds here.
Hey, Oz... kinda hard to imagine Sydney area still getting snow and freezing rain this late in the spring... That's like mid-April to the northers...
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445. 7544
Quoting Grothar:
Latest models moving Patty more WSW than SW now.



However, intensity very low.



yeao gro i think she earned the name unpredictable PATTY ;lol
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Well this is truly amazing. An invest/TD/TS passing within 20 mi of my island, and not a thing happening. This reminds me of when the center of Ernesto passed earlier this year. It could be clearly seen at 12.8N, 58.5W, or basically due east. Next thing I knew, it was streaming by at 14.1N 59-60W due to a center relocation. All of the rain we had was the next as the center passed SW of St. Lucia.
I am at least hoping for some sort of action good rain and wind from 98L/TD17/Rafael. It's too close to not give us a taste of something. Thankfully, it's not another Tomas situation, though we were also spared the worst by about 20nm in the end.
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Quoting TropicalStormIsaac:

What's that big blob over Haiti? That would be bad news.


Looks like just the normal blow up of convection down there.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26850
442. 7544
Quoting BahaHurican:
Well, I am not staying up to watch her tonight... too tired... but I am starting to feel I'll be looking up from the down side of Patty before the weekend is over... lol



i hear u but she just may have a good dmax tonight imo have a good one
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Quoting TropicalStormIsaac:

Woohoo I've been unbanned. Thanks Admin, I have no idea why I was banned in the 1st place.

I am in the Blue Mountains of Sydney, It's pouring with snow here right now. I went down the street to see if the trains were running and took this photo.


Hello from about 50km east of you, Are the trains running, by the looks of your photo it doesn't look likely. Stay warm.
I'm just getting pouring rain and gusty winds here.
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Quoting 12george1:

I am in Florida, probably at the north edge of the dark green color.


I'm south of you.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26850
BTW, somehow I am pretty convinced we currently have small craft advisories posted for the entire Bahamas ... lol....

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Quoting Grothar:


That is some image, pcola. If you hold your mouse and left click on that image, and move it to the left, you get a great view of 98L about to impact the islands there. I never saw this one before.

What's that big blob over Haiti? That would be bad news.
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Latest models moving Patty more WSW than SW now.



However, intensity very low.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26850
Quoting HuracandelCaribe:
The LLC of 98L looks to be near 60.5w 12.3n

Winds in Saint Lucia are NE and Barbados SE

Woohoo I've been unbanned. Thanks Admin, I have no idea why I was banned in the 1st place.

I am in the Blue Mountains of Sydney, It's pouring with snow here right now. I went down the street to see if the trains were running and took this photo.

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Quoting 7544:


it was also unlikely she will be patty and head sw and now the cone is extened out so like i say no one know about patty except patty still keeeping one eye on her too
Well, I am not staying up to watch her tonight... too tired... but I am starting to feel I'll be looking up from the down side of Patty before the weekend is over... lol

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Quoting pcola57:


Domican WU Radar


That is some image, pcola. If you hold your mouse and left click on that image, and move it to the left, you get a great view of 98L about to impact the islands there. I never saw this one before.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26850

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.