Tropical Depression Sixteen has formed; 98L likely to develop

By: Angela Fritz , 6:06 PM GMT on October 11, 2012

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Tropical Depression Sixteen formed from 97L this morning, though continues to be no threat and is expected to dissipate by Friday night. The depression is located east of the Bahamas and north of the Turks and Caicos Islands, and has had organized thunderstorm activity over the past couple of days, though an approaching cold front is beginning to take its toll on the system, which is apparent on satellite loops. Wind shear is around 20 knots from the southwest and increasing, which is exposing the cyclone's center of circulation and will result in the cyclone's demise. The system's thunderstorm activity could reach the far eastern Bahamas on Friday, but it's likely that Sixteen will not impact the islands before dissipating.


Figure 1. Visible satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Sixteen captured at 1:17pm EDT.

98L still likely to develop

Strong thunderstorm activity continues in 98L today, despite strong wind shear to its north, around 30 knots. This wind shear is expected to decrease over the next few days, providing a window for the wave to develop over the weekend. Most of the models are expecting 98L to to strengthen to a tropical storm by Sunday. The GFS and the GFDL even go as far to say that 98L could reach Category 1 hurricane strength. In terms of track, all of the models are forecasting a recurving pattern. The ECMWF pushes the potential cyclone farthest west, possibly reaching Hispaniola. The HWRF carries the system northwest over the next three days, and across Puerto Rico. The GFS has a similar solution this morning, as well. The model with the eastern-most forecast is the GFDL, which expects 98L to track north-northwest, scraping the eastern side of the Lesser Antilles, and avoiding land thereafter.

The National Hurricane Center gives 98L a 50% chance of development over the next 48 hours.

Angela

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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54479
ALERT ATCF MIL 98X XXX 121012000000
2012101200
13.0 301.1
15.6 298.0
100
12.8 301.4
120200
1210120200
1
WTNT21 KNGU 120200
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0N 58.9W TO 15.6N 62.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 112345Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.8N 58.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING INTENSIFICATION OF A
LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BARBADOS. AT 120000Z, SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF
INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE
LAST 24 HOURS. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 83 TO 85 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER AIR ENVIRONMENT MAY
ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 130200Z.//
9812100712 80N 308W 15
9812100718 80N 325W 15
9812100800 80N 342W 20
9812100806 81N 359W 20
9812100812 83N 375W 25
9812100818 84N 391W 25
9812100900 83N 412W 25
9812100906 83N 437W 25
9812100912 84N 459W 25
9812100918 90N 506W 25
9812101000 93N 519W 30
9812101006 96N 532W 30
9812101012 100N 544W 30
9812101018 104N 553W 30
9812101100 108N 561W 30
9812101106 112N 569W 30
9812101112 117N 576W 30
9812101118 120N 581W 30
9812101200 124N 586W 30

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54479
531. 7544
Quoting Civicane49:


lookin good now for d max
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Quoting allancalderini:
Semtember this month had me disappoint only two name storms but August was like a produce machine it produce 8.btw Does it it is a record this year to have 16 name storms without neither failing to stay at td status? I remember 2008 end with 15 until td 16 broke the streak and couldn`t strength.


I dunno. Good question. I did read a dissertation once, possibly from Masters, that said that tropical depressions have become less frequent since the 1980s. I can think of a couple of reasons for that, but I won't expound unless someone asks me to.
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Tropical Disturbance near Diego Garcia (91s)

AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 120000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.0S 72.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.



it looks very organized...this may become the first storm of their season...Anais
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Quoting KoritheMan:
If this were August or September, 98L would be a Gulf storm. Then again, with the recurve gods on our side, maybe not...
Semtember this month had me disappoint only two name storms but August was like a produce machine it produce 8.btw Does it it is a record this year to have 16 name storms without neither failing to stay at td status? I remember 2008 end with 15 until td 16 broke the streak and couldn`t strength.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THEY ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE IN A DAY
OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS GENERALLY WESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
NNNN
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
With Patty taken...we just have 5 names left...soon 4
We will probably reach Sandy by the last week of October and maybe Tony in November.
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If this were August or September, 98L would be a Gulf storm. Then again, with the recurve gods on our side, maybe not...
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DATA FROM THE BARBADOS WEATHER SERVICE RADAR...SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...AND SATELLITES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NOW LOCATED ABOUT 30 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAINT LUCIA HAS
CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. EVEN
THOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.
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522. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Disturbance near Diego Garcia (91s)

AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 120000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 7.0S 72.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
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With Patty taken...we just have 5 names left...soon 4
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520. 7544
ok shes back to sw now dmax on the way
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Quoting plutorising:
did y'all see this article yet? a new weather pattern affecting the north pole region.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id= researchers-find-link-between-arctic-meltdown-summ er-floods-fires

"Another surprise, Overland said, is the link his study found between the blast of summer air flowing into the Arctic each June and persistent high-pressure weather systems that have produced unusual summer warmth in Greenland for the last six years."


Interesting article. Thanks. Fixed your link so it's easier for others to find.
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Hurricane Hunters set to take off later today to investigate Patty and 98L.


000
NOUS42 KNHC 111451
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1050 AM EDT THU 11 OCTOBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z OCTOBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-145

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 73--
A. 12/1600Z
B. AFXXX 0116A CYCLONE
C. 12/1200Z
D. 24.8N 74.0W
E. 12/1530Z TO 12/1830
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71-- FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 72--
A. 12/1800Z A. 13/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0217A CYCLONE
C. 12/1700Z C. 13/0500Z
D. 15.5N 62.5W D. 17.0N 64.0W
E. 12/1730Z TO 12/2130Z E. 13/1530Z TO 13/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM IN EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS STILL A THREAT.
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Quoting allancalderini:
After that two are any potential candidates for "Sandy"?
Actually yes and this one is out in the open Atlantic.



And perhaps something trying to get going in the Western Caribbean? Although it is long range, and we all know how that works out.


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Well folks, I'm off to bed. I'll be back to see what's happening in a few hours.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yeah, Patty is going to be trying to do the ole loop-de-loop while trying to draw Rafael closer to her. It will also be interesting to see how both of our storms do strength wise as a hurricane is not out of the question on approach to the Northern Leewards and Puerto Rico from Rafael and a strong tropical storm from Patty for the Bahamas.
After that two are any potential candidates for "Sandy"?
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Quoting pottery:

I hope you get some rain !
I hear you need it there.


Oh yes we do! Some good showers would be more than welcome.
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Quoting pottery:

That would be great to see !
Yeah, Patty is going to be trying to do the ole loop-de-loop while trying to draw Rafael closer to her. It will also be interesting to see how both of our storms do strength wise as a hurricane is not out of the question on approach to the Northern Leewards and Puerto Rico from Rafael and a strong tropical storm from Patty for the Bahamas.
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Quoting islandgirls:
Keeping a close eye on 98L. I see it has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. Stormy weather is in the forecast for this weekend here in Antigua, especially Sunday. I wait with anticipation.

I hope you get some rain !
I hear you need it there.
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Keeping a close eye on 98L. I see it has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. Stormy weather is in the forecast for this weekend here in Antigua, especially Sunday. I wait with anticipation.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
48 hrs. a fujiwhara taking place between Patty and soon to be Rafael.


That would be great to see !
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509. 7544
gfs has patty to vist so fl then heads south again hmmmmm
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48 hrs. a fujiwhara taking place between Patty and soon to be Rafael.

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Quoting JLPR2:
Hmm... Looks good, but what is happening under all that convection? The wind barbs in the islands have some interesting obs.



But I'm tired and I wont waste my night on 98L. XD
Good night everyone!

ZzZzZzZzZzZzZzzz...

Winds in B'dos are calm for the past hour or so, with the 'direction' floating around all over the place. (check www.brohavwx.com)

So those obs are most likely just the same situation on the other islands.
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Wow the convection for Patty is getting sheared off to the Northeast leaving the COC exposed.

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Quoting wxchaser97:
YAY! Tigers beat the A's!


I think that is just her convection as, I think, the LLC is still drifting/stationary.


Boo, took 5 games at least.
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504. JLPR2
Hmm... Looks good, but what is happening under all that convection? The wind barbs in the islands have some interesting obs.



But I'm tired and I wont waste my night on 98L. XD
Good night everyone!

ZzZzZzZzZzZzZzzz...
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04:15UTC and 98L continues to organize nicely... (finally not so boring lol)
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6240
YAY! Tigers beat the A's!

Quoting pottery:
Actually, in the last couple frames of the loops, Patty is sprinting off to the N/E !

I think that is just her convection as, I think, the LLC is still drifting/stationary.
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501. SLU
Quoting CaribBoy:


Center relocations are common with these weak slow moving systems.


very
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5262
Quoting CaribBoy:


That means it is right on track to match the models

Unless it keeps tracking west for another 12 hrs or so...
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



missed Patty : (
Bummer....
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Quoting pottery:

Yeah, that becomes very clear to me when I speed-up the loops.
Center looks to be just S/E of B'dos.


That means it is right on track to match the models
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6240
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Actually, the way the things are cooking, you're going to get a little more than expected...


I'll take what mother nature has to offer :)
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6240
did y'all see this article yet? a new weather pattern affecting the north pole region.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id= researchers-find-link-between-arctic-meltdown-summ er-floods-fires

"Another surprise, Overland said, is the link his study found between the blast of summer air flowing into the Arctic each June and persistent high-pressure weather systems that have produced unusual summer warmth in Greenland for the last six years."
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missed Patty : (
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Quoting CaribBoy:


it's really rotating

Yeah, that becomes very clear to me when I speed-up the loops.
Center looks to be just S/E of B'dos.
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Quoting CaribBoy:


Sorry to hear you didn't get anything yet. I'm in St Maarten and still not certain to get any significant weather from 98L. What a shame for a system being so close!
Actually, the way the things are cooking, you're going to get a little more than expected...
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Quoting SLU:


Yes. based on the S to SW winds in Barbados, the LLC could be NW of there but there seems to be at least 2 swirls around that Island. I still think that a new LLC could reform in the next few hrs further east near the MLC since it is very potent and has much more support with the deep convection around it.


Center relocations are common with these weak slow moving systems.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6240
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Patty is being influenced by a ridge over the southern United States, while 98L is being steered largely by the Bermuda/Azores high.

OK, thanks.
I didn't take the ridge into account enough.
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Quoting pottery:

I was looking at that a little while ago too.
Note how the convection at the leading edge (seen nicely on rainbow as well) is jumping south right now.

I don't like that !


it's really rotating
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6240
Actually, in the last couple frames of the loops, Patty is sprinting off to the N/E !
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487. SLU
Quoting CaribBoy:
Could this be the COC (just NW if Barbados) ?

Link


Yes. based on the S to SW winds in Barbados, the LLC could be NW of there but there seems to be at least 2 swirls around that Island. I still think that a new LLC could reform in the next few hrs further east near the MLC since it is very potent and has much more support with the deep convection around it.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5262
Quoting LemieT:


You can see an exposed COC heading west to pass south of St. Vincent, though it appears the MLC is still due east of here judging by the cloud motions.


Yes I can see it... and can't wait for daylight to have a better handle of what's going on.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6240
Quoting pottery:

I really don't understand the contradiction in the models for these 2 systems.

Patty is W-S/W and 98 is NN/W.

The highs are not affecting them the same way ?


Patty is being influenced by a ridge over the southern United States, while 98L is being steered largely by the Bermuda/Azores high.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Kinda figured all along that the models were too far to the right. I don't care what time of year it is, you don't get a system below 10N to recurve before the Antilles.

That's what I'm wondering....
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Quoting JLPR2:
Models are shifting to the worst possible scenario for the NE Caribbean.



BUT VERY INTERESTING lol.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6240

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.