Tropical Depression Sixteen has formed; 98L likely to develop

By: Angela Fritz , 6:06 PM GMT on October 11, 2012

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Tropical Depression Sixteen formed from 97L this morning, though continues to be no threat and is expected to dissipate by Friday night. The depression is located east of the Bahamas and north of the Turks and Caicos Islands, and has had organized thunderstorm activity over the past couple of days, though an approaching cold front is beginning to take its toll on the system, which is apparent on satellite loops. Wind shear is around 20 knots from the southwest and increasing, which is exposing the cyclone's center of circulation and will result in the cyclone's demise. The system's thunderstorm activity could reach the far eastern Bahamas on Friday, but it's likely that Sixteen will not impact the islands before dissipating.


Figure 1. Visible satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Sixteen captured at 1:17pm EDT.

98L still likely to develop

Strong thunderstorm activity continues in 98L today, despite strong wind shear to its north, around 30 knots. This wind shear is expected to decrease over the next few days, providing a window for the wave to develop over the weekend. Most of the models are expecting 98L to to strengthen to a tropical storm by Sunday. The GFS and the GFDL even go as far to say that 98L could reach Category 1 hurricane strength. In terms of track, all of the models are forecasting a recurving pattern. The ECMWF pushes the potential cyclone farthest west, possibly reaching Hispaniola. The HWRF carries the system northwest over the next three days, and across Puerto Rico. The GFS has a similar solution this morning, as well. The model with the eastern-most forecast is the GFDL, which expects 98L to track north-northwest, scraping the eastern side of the Lesser Antilles, and avoiding land thereafter.

The National Hurricane Center gives 98L a 50% chance of development over the next 48 hours.

Angela

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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Relax. You're too sensitive, Tom.

No, that comment upset a lot of people I'm willing to bet, including me. He doesn't want to be criticized yet he constantly criticizes others for their forecasting...it's getting old.

The stupid fire alarm went off last night guys. At 4am.
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Well I was going to write a blog but I am running out of time and wouldn't be able to complete one. Here are my severe weather and tropical weather graphics that would've been included.

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581. Gorty
Quoting LargoFl:
Good Morning folks!..great weather here by me!!..........


LOL nice!

For me, today and tomorrow highs in the low 50s. This morning is in the mid 30s, tomorrow morning it will be in the mid 20s.
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SUNNY morning there in some islands
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mosquitos are swarming hopefully just the salt water kind e cen florida
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Patty
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6032
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Is Recon still on for today, and is a Fujiwhara effect really possible in this situation?

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PROBABLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST
EAST OF LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR 12/1800Z AT 17.0N 61.0W.
BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 13/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

There won't be any fujiwhara effect. Patty should be gone by then.
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Is Recon still on for today, and is a Fujiwhara effect really possible in this situation?
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573. SLU
000
ABNT20 KNHC 121142
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM PATTY...LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ABOUT 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAINT LUCIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN RAIN BANDS...SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW STILL LACKS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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PATTY o_0 ?
Wow I've missed a lot.
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98L up to 80%.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ABOUT 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAINT LUCIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN RAIN BANDS...SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW STILL LACKS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.
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97E remains at 50%.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Seriously?

I can't stand it when people criticize others for getting a forecast wrong. It's rude and completely unnecessary. Criticizing blown forecasts is never cool, especially on the doc's own blog.

Show some respect, forecasting ain't easy.

Sorry but Dr Masters said this when both 97L and 98L were at 50%. 2hrs later we had TD16 which then became TS Patty. That's a bad forecast to me. What did the NHC see that Dr Masters didn't??

Btw, i don't give to hoots if it's cool or not to criticize.
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568. VR46L
Quoting islander101010:
patty making a run for the nw carib might get killed trying to do it.


Yep there is alot of shear between her and there..
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patty making a run for the nw carib might get killed trying to do it.
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Quoting aspectre:
Considering how consistently WRONG the NHC has been about Patty's development and its track, I doubt that the NHC's intensity predictions merit respect when intensity is MUCH harder to predict than the track.


so...what do you think about their graph...?


I get what you said..remember this TWO issued on Thursday at 8 AM?

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THERE IS STILL A
SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
BEFORE THE LOW MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS DISTURBANCE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WATHER SERVICE.

how come the "low" has not merged yet? this is a.k.a.FAIL!
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565. VR46L
Quoting TomTaylor:
Seriously?

I can't stand it when people criticize others for getting a forecast wrong. It's rude and completely unnecessary. Criticizing blown forecasts is never cool, especially on the doc's own blog.

Show some respect, forecasting ain't easy.


No harm , but the second that forecast of the Docs came out people were questioning it, to most people who were looking at the images at the time Patty was at least a depression at the time ...
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564. SLU
Good morning

The center we've been tracking has just passed St. Lucia and is near 14.1n 61.1w and the winds have veered to the SW on that island.

But you can see another swirl starting to develop further south east near 13.4n 60.5w near the deep convection about midway between Barbados and St. Vincent.

Barbados also reported 10-min sustained winds of 36mph over night which equates to about 40mph 1-min winds.

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Current conditons in Fort Myers, FL

Temp 70° (21°C)
Humidity 87%
Wind Speed NE 6 mph
Barometer 30.10 in (1019.3 mb)
Dewpoint 66° (19°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Forcast is for sunny skies with high of 88° and low of 68°
Chamber of Commerce weather at least through Tuesday of next week!
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
443 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-130000 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
443 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...MARINE GUST IMPACT...
WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS OF UP TO 20
KNOTS AND SEAS OFFSHORE INCREASING TO 4 TO 5 FEET. THE HIGHEST
IMPACTS WILL BE SOUTH OF TARPON SPRINGS AND GREATER THAN 20 NM
OFFSHORE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...MARINE GUST IMPACT...
GUSTY WINDS OFFSHORE WITH ELEVATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL AT TIMES APPROACH 20 KNOTS WITH
SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

FLEMING




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64 in for me in WPB
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Considering how consistently WRONG the NHC has been about Patty's development and its track, I doubt that the NHC's intensity predictions merit respect when intensity is MUCH harder to predict than the track.
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Patty; "I'm not dead yet"
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558. VR46L
Quoting GTcooliebai:
48 hrs. a fujiwhara taking place between Patty and soon to be Rafael.



I somehow doubt it...

Patty forecast

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 25.1N 72.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 24.9N 72.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 24.6N 73.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 24.3N 73.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/0600Z 23.9N 74.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0600Z 23.0N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED



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Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
603 AM AST FRI OCT 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER
REGIME THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...IS
FORECAST TO MOVE MAINLY NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AFFECTING PARTS OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND
PROBABLY PASSING NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TUTT REMAINS ALIGNED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHWEST...AS EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW ALSO LIFTS NORTHWEST ACROSS
PUERTO RICO TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TUTT REMAINS LOCATED IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION AND WILL AGAIN COMBINE WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL EFFECTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND...THE LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST WILL BE DICTATED BY THE DISTURBANCE JUST EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY...BUT IT
IS BECOMING A BIT MORE LIKELY THAT THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
TRACK NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS WOULD
GIVE THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND THE WORST
WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS TO THE AREAS FROM EASTERN PUERTO RICO
EASTWARD THROUGH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS OF THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS STILL
NOT ETCHED IN STONE. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED
TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST ACROSS THE FLYING AREA TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE SHOWERS PASS NEAR TIST...TISX AND TJSJ THIS MORNING. THEN...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PR BTWN 12/16Z AND 12/21Z. THIS COULD RESULT
IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS IN AND AROUND TJMZ...TJBQ AND
POSSIBLY TJSJ. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST TODAY...AT AROUND
15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER...WINDS AND SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE...
AS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA. SMALL
BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BECOME
NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 89 78 / 70 70 70 50
STT 89 80 89 79 / 70 70 70 50
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98 keeps getting stronger large magnitude tw with multiple vortexs
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Barbados
Wind


Wind Speed

32 km/h
()
 
 


Max Wind Speed

57 km/h

 
 


Max Gust Speed

76 km/h

 
 


Visibility

9.6 kilometers

 
 


Events

Rain

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Good Morning folks!..great weather here by me!!..........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38439
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Afternoon all. Dr Masters, you said 97L won't develop yet it's now TS Patty. mmmmmmmmmmmmm
Seriously?

I can't stand it when people criticize others for getting a forecast wrong. It's rude and completely unnecessary. Criticizing blown forecasts is never cool, especially on the doc's own blog.

Show some respect, forecasting ain't easy.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38439
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38439
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TROPICAL STORM PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PATTY CONTINUES TO
GENERATE A LARGE MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AN EARLIER
SSMIS PASS AND NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THE WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED ABOUT 60 N MI SOUTHWEST OF THE NEAREST
DEEP CONVECTION AS A CONSEQUENCE OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE ABRUPTLY DECREASED TO 2.0 FROM BOTH SATELLITE
AGENCIES...AND A BLEND OF T- AND CI-NUMBERS IS THE BASIS FOR
LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KT.

PATTY IS NOT LIKELY TO HANG ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MUCH
LONGER. AN INCREASINGLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS WRAPPING
AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF THE STORM DUE ITS PROXIMITY TO A FRONT.
IN ADDITION...A BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN EVEN STRONGER
VERTICAL SHEAR OVER PATTY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE FACTORS
SHOULD PROMOTE WEAKENING...AND PATTY IS LIKELY TO BE SHEARED APART
AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24-36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND A
BIT LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF PATTY IS FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...AND HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST...OR 200/03...DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW CYCLONE BEING PUSHED
SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF AND UKMET
MODELS THAT DISSIPATE THE STORM RELATIVELY SOON. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT A BIT FASTER TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 36 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 25.1N 72.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 24.9N 72.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 24.6N 73.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 24.3N 73.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/0600Z 23.9N 74.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0600Z 23.0N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PATTY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...PATTY DRIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 72.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSW OR 200 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Blog update. Very late blog update, but nonetheless...
Nice blog. Very late indeed. I'll be up for a while though. Studying for a chem quiz.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting KoritheMan:


How old is GOES-14?
It was launched in June of 2009 according to Wikipedia. So a little over 3 years old.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
544. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


copyright Meteo France Reunion
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Quoting TomTaylor:
GOES-14 is slowly moving east to assume the position of GOES-13.




Hopefully GOES-13 will come back online soon. Having GOES-14 take over for GOES-13 means we no longer have a backup geostationary satellite. So if either GOES-14 or GOES-15 fails, we would be in a satellite blackout for at least another 3 years. I honestly can't imagine weather forecasting without geostationary satellite imagery.


How old is GOES-14?
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GOES-14 is slowly moving east to assume the position of GOES-13.




Hopefully GOES-13 will come back online soon. Having GOES-14 take over for GOES-13 means we no longer have a backup geostationary satellite. So if either GOES-14 or GOES-15 fails, we would be in a satellite blackout for at least another 3 years. I honestly can't imagine weather forecasting without geostationary satellite imagery.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
540. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 01-20122013
10:30 AM RET October 12 2012
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (1002 hPa) located at 7.5S 71.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 with gusts of 40. The disturbance is reported as moving west southwest at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 8.2S 66.9E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 9.2S 63.1E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
72 HRS: 9.9S 60.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)

Additional Information
======================

System located 70 NM west of Diego Garcia has tracked west southward at about 11 knots the past 6 hours. Last animated satellite imagery depicts a blow up of convection persisting close to the center and a good upper level divergence south of the system.

Environmental conditions are good with good trade inflow and improving inflow equatorward. Upper level wind shear is weak, system being located beneath the western part of an upper level ridge and the divergence is favorable southward. Sea surface temperature is currently favorable near 27C,

Within the next 3 days, system is expected to keep on tracking regularly west southwestward over the northwestern edge of the subtropical high pressure. Environmental conditions should remain favorable. System is expected to intensify during this period.

On an after 72 hours, system should keep on tracking west southwestward. Ocean heat content should become unfavorable for further deepening of the system.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We will probably see 1-3 named storms this season, giving us a final total of 17-19 named storms.

According to my forecast, which has arguably panned out so far; there may be more ... to include alpha(highest in the sky), and beta(note reverse direction, possible Gulf storm?).







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538. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #59
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
15:00 PM JST October 12 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (940 hPa) located at 19.9N 128.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 20.3N 129.0E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
48 HRS: 20.7N 129.2E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 21.3N 129.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I dunno. Good question. I did read a dissertation once, possibly from Masters, that said that tropical depressions have become less frequent since the 1980s. I can think of a couple of reasons for that, but I won't expound unless someone asks me to.


As I said before, both the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins have all tropical depressions become named storms this year so far. I wonder if all tropical depressions become named storms by the end of the season.
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534. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:



it looks very organized...this may become the first storm of their season...Anais


waiting to see what Reunion does in a about half hour to see if they begin any warnings.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.