Tropical Depression Sixteen has formed; 98L likely to develop

By: Angela Fritz , 6:06 PM GMT on October 11, 2012

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Tropical Depression Sixteen formed from 97L this morning, though continues to be no threat and is expected to dissipate by Friday night. The depression is located east of the Bahamas and north of the Turks and Caicos Islands, and has had organized thunderstorm activity over the past couple of days, though an approaching cold front is beginning to take its toll on the system, which is apparent on satellite loops. Wind shear is around 20 knots from the southwest and increasing, which is exposing the cyclone's center of circulation and will result in the cyclone's demise. The system's thunderstorm activity could reach the far eastern Bahamas on Friday, but it's likely that Sixteen will not impact the islands before dissipating.


Figure 1. Visible satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Sixteen captured at 1:17pm EDT.

98L still likely to develop

Strong thunderstorm activity continues in 98L today, despite strong wind shear to its north, around 30 knots. This wind shear is expected to decrease over the next few days, providing a window for the wave to develop over the weekend. Most of the models are expecting 98L to to strengthen to a tropical storm by Sunday. The GFS and the GFDL even go as far to say that 98L could reach Category 1 hurricane strength. In terms of track, all of the models are forecasting a recurving pattern. The ECMWF pushes the potential cyclone farthest west, possibly reaching Hispaniola. The HWRF carries the system northwest over the next three days, and across Puerto Rico. The GFS has a similar solution this morning, as well. The model with the eastern-most forecast is the GFDL, which expects 98L to track north-northwest, scraping the eastern side of the Lesser Antilles, and avoiding land thereafter.

The National Hurricane Center gives 98L a 50% chance of development over the next 48 hours.

Angela

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12z Best Track.

AL, 98, 2012101212, , BEST, 0, 137N, 618W, 35, 1006, LO
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Good morning to all, BTW.... lol

It's sunny and breezy here in Nassau Bahamas. I'm looking forward to an enjoyable holiday, and since it seems we won't be getting much rain after all, I think I'll go out and enjoy some of it.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
631. 7544
looks like 98l will be a ts when the plane is done latter
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Quoting VR46L:


Thing people forget is we are all human and prone to error....noone is perfect but we should also be entitled to call out an error and not sweep it under the carpet when it was obvious ... If the doc had corrected his blog as soon as the questions were being asked or when TD 16 was declared it would not be an issue now..
I think the doc has been doing this long enough now to let the chips fall where they may.... he knows life as we know it will not end if he makes a mistake on the blog; this is the guy who used to be with the HHers at one point, for pete's sake... He called it; he was wrong. He's not so caught up in public opinion that he has to "nickel and dime" his blog post.

Additionally, and a lot of us here would do well to pay attention to this, the doc uses words like "likely to" and "is expected to". He himself acknowledges that a different outcome is possible. He just doesn't expect that to be what happens. By doing this, the doc makes it clear what we sometimes forget - that wx forecasting is an imprecise science. Even the best of us expect to be wrong sometimes.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22736
Woke up at 4:00am with heavy rains and fierce winds here in Barbados. Right now we are experiencing light rain but the winds are coming from the southeast at 40-52km. The blob that is coming up to us going to be very nasty. Should be Rafael NHC.
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628. SLU
Tropical storm force winds of 39mph just clocked in Barbados
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5367
Good Morning
Have a question;
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ABOUT 60 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAINT LUCIA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS


It says this but in the Tropical discussion it says this
" AS OF 0600 UTC...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 60.4W OR ABOUT 32 NM SE OF
ST LUCIA.


So is it Nw of St. Lucia or SE?

Which is right? and how do you get in touch with some one at NHC to get them to correct which ever is wrong? Alot of us in on the islands depend on the NHC for information since our Government does not put warnings out until it is to late to prepare
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The mark of Zorro
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Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1219
Quoting stormpetrol:
I don't see a NW movement with 98L, I see an almost due west movement for now.



Weakness looks like it is closing.Link
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-131000-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-M ILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM THIS
MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT DUE TO
WARM...MOIST...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND STRONG WIND SHEAR. THE MAIN
HAZARD WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

$$


------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------


Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1219
Quoting stormpetrol:
I don't see a NW movement with 98L, I see an almost due west movement for now.
Agree, W to WNW...not NW at all...
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1008
Dr. Rick Knabb ‏@NHCDirector
Depression or storm likely to form near/over Lesser Antilles next day or so, Air Force flying it this afternoon
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I don't see a NW movement with 98L, I see an almost due west movement for now.
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NORTHEAST UNDER A FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT...........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42266
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
718 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-067>069-122030-
/O.UPG.KPHI.FZ.A.0007.121013T0600Z-121013T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.FZ.W.0012.121013T0600Z-121013T1300Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MO NROE-BERKS-
LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...WEST CHESTER...NORRISTOWN...
DOYLESTOWN
718 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY. THE
FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN
NEW JERSEY, TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE PLANTS WILL LIKELY BE DAMAGED OR KILLED IF
NOT PROTECTED OR BROUGHT INDOORS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42266
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615. Relix
98L's LLC probably relocated to the SE under the MLC
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SPC today




tomorrow


Sunday
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613. 7544
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey Pot, yeah, also bowling yorkers and sandshoe crushers.


COC of Patty looks to be moving NE and back under the convection.



yep she did that last night caught a some conv .then went back to the sw still keep one eye on her today
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey Pot, yeah, also bowling yorkers and sandshoe crushers.


COC of Patty looks to be moving NE and back under the convection.


LOL to that !

I thought that Patty was shifting her position last night too, to the NE.
Time will tell.

Funny how both her and 98 have been pretty static for a couple of days..
Hoping that we don't get rains that are too heavy here. Looks touch-and-go right now.
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Quoting pottery:
Good Morning all.

Still threatening to rain here in Trinidad.
Calm and humid.

Hi Aussie. I see you are still sending down bouncers, and they are all trying to hook.

Hey Pot, yeah, also bowling yorkers and sandshoe crushers.


COC of Patty looks to be moving NE and chasing the convection.

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610. VR46L
Quoting AussieStorm:

How many people in the NHC has a PhD??? Probably all of them yet they get criticized all the time on this blog. Stones and glass houses don't mix.


Thing people forget is we are all human and prone to error....noone is perfect but we should also be entitled to call out an error and not sweep it under the carpet when it was obvious ... If the doc had corrected his blog as soon as the questions were being asked or when TD 16 was declared it would not be an issue now..
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Good Morning all.

Still threatening to rain here in Trinidad.
Calm and humid.

Hi Aussie. I see you are still sending down bouncers, and they are all trying to hook.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Bingo.

How many people in the NHC has a PhD??? Probably all of them yet they get criticized all the time on this blog. Stones and glass houses don't mix.









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Good Morning!

I knew the Bahama Blob/16/Patty wasn't getting the attention it deserved. If it survives long enough to duck south of the shear, it could cause some damage.

"news of its demise is over rated".

Wow, we finally had a weather change here in north Florida. I can breathe for the first time in over a month!
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SLU, what would you say is happening with the white core jus south of Barbados.....on the funktop loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/ft-animate d.gif
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The "Righteous Indignation" crowd lives on.

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I'm going to school as well, luckily I don't have any tests or important things today. The next few days will be active severe weather wise and TD17 should form late tonight or tomorrow.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

In what decade was it right to criticize someone, with a much higher education background than yourself, who has put a lot of time and effort into making this site and blog section, just so we can comment on it and learn things?

Yeah, so you've never criticized the NHC for a dud forecast? People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.

The meaning of Forecast is Predict or estimate (a future event or trend). So what if Dr Masters got it wrong. Your just making a big deal about it cause I criticized him over it. His forecast said, 97L was not a threat to develop, 2hrs later it was a TD.


I forecast I will wake up at 11am tomorrow morning, if I'm wrong then heck, I got it wrong.

Build a bridge and get over it. I'm over it. You should follow, we do have Patty and 98L to watch not to argue if it's cool or not if someone got a forecast wrong. Geez Aye Caramba
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

In what decade was it right to criticize someone, with a much higher education background than yourself, who has put a lot of time and effort into making this site and blog section, just so we can comment on it and learn things?


even if i dont like Aussie's comment, i dont like this one either.
We ARE allowed to criticize those in a higher position than us. At any time.
This isnt a "status" situation, in which you musnt go against anyone in a higher position than you
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

There's a difference between disagreeing and just downright criticizing.

Anyways, I'm off to school. Two tests and three speeches to give.

Good luck and don't fail those tests & speeches.

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Is Recon still on for today, and is a Fujiwhara effect really possible in this situation?

Since no one has said this yet, ;), recon goes out today but a Fujiwhara effect probably won't happen.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Im passing out baby bottles and bibs..its wayyyy too early to be whining this beautiful NC morning.



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Quoting TomballTXPride:

And the relentless bashing of Joe Bastardi and others don't apply. Common, Bro. Get real.

There's a difference between disagreeing and just downright criticizing.

Anyways, I'm off to school. Two tests and three speeches to give.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32860
Freeze Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
320 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-103-105-107-NYZ067>070-1222 00-
/O.UPG.KOKX.FZ.A.0007.121013T0500Z-121013T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.FZ.W.0005.121013T0500Z-121013T1300Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-ORANGE-
PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
320 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY. THE
FREEZE WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARDS...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.---first freeze for us

* TIMING...AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING COULD KILL CROPS AND
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.


I love cold weather!!!
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Oh did it. I am very sorry. Geez, don't you think Dr Masters has been criticized before for a busted forecast. I think every forecaster has made a busted forecast and they got criticized for it. Probably water off the Doc's back.

In which decade was it not allowed to criticize people??

Oh and you can criticize me, I don't care one bit.

In what decade was it right to criticize someone, with a much higher education background than yourself, who has put a lot of time and effort into making this site and blog section, just so we can comment on it and learn things?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32860
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Dust gets inside the vents and when we turn the heat on it burns it and causes it to smoke/smell bad. It won't happen again until next year now.

You do know a fire could start from that and it is probably a good idea to get them cleaned.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Is Recon still on for today, and is a Fujiwhara effect really possible in this situation?


Yes to recon, scheduled for this afternoon.
No to Fuji effect IMO
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1219
589. VR46L
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Is Recon still on for today, and is a Fujiwhara effect really possible in this situation?


Not a chance of Fujiwhara IMO , Patty by this time tomorrow will be sheared to pieces If you click on this link and tick the hdw boxs you can see the shear she has to come through ...I am not saying she could not regenerate at some stage but she will be a low in all probability in 36 48 hrs time

Link



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Quoting wxchaser97:

Haha, why did it go off?
Also I didn't like that comment either.

Dust gets inside the vents and when we turn the heat on it burns it and causes it to smoke/smell bad. It won't happen again until next year now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32860
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, that comment upset a lot of people I'm willing to bet, including me. He doesn't want to be criticized yet he constantly criticizes others for their forecasting...it's getting old.

The stupid fire alarm went off last night guys. At 4am.


I got up at 4am.
that wasnt last night to me!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, that comment upset a lot of people I'm willing to bet, including me. He doesn't want to be criticized yet he constantly criticizes others for their forecasting...it's getting old.

The stupid fire alarm went off last night guys. At 4am.

Oh did it. I am very sorry. Geez, don't you think Dr Masters has been criticized before for a busted forecast. I think every forecaster has made a busted forecast and they got criticized for it. Probably water off the Doc's back.

In which decade was it not allowed to criticize people??

Oh and you can criticize me, I don't care one bit.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, that comment upset a lot of people I'm willing to bet, including me. He doesn't want to be criticized yet he constantly criticizes others for their forecasting...it's getting old.

The stupid fire alarm went off last night guys. At 4am.

Haha, why did it go off?
Also I didn't like that comment either.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Be funny if Patty was sitting about 20 miles off shore of Florida just taunting them.Lol.
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Quoting TomballTXPride:

Relax. You're too sensitive, Tom.

No, that comment upset a lot of people I'm willing to bet, including me. He doesn't want to be criticized yet he constantly criticizes others for their forecasting...it's getting old.

The stupid fire alarm went off last night guys. At 4am.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32860

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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