Tropical Depression Sixteen has formed; 98L likely to develop

By: Angela Fritz , 6:06 PM GMT on October 11, 2012

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Tropical Depression Sixteen formed from 97L this morning, though continues to be no threat and is expected to dissipate by Friday night. The depression is located east of the Bahamas and north of the Turks and Caicos Islands, and has had organized thunderstorm activity over the past couple of days, though an approaching cold front is beginning to take its toll on the system, which is apparent on satellite loops. Wind shear is around 20 knots from the southwest and increasing, which is exposing the cyclone's center of circulation and will result in the cyclone's demise. The system's thunderstorm activity could reach the far eastern Bahamas on Friday, but it's likely that Sixteen will not impact the islands before dissipating.


Figure 1. Visible satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Sixteen captured at 1:17pm EDT.

98L still likely to develop

Strong thunderstorm activity continues in 98L today, despite strong wind shear to its north, around 30 knots. This wind shear is expected to decrease over the next few days, providing a window for the wave to develop over the weekend. Most of the models are expecting 98L to to strengthen to a tropical storm by Sunday. The GFS and the GFDL even go as far to say that 98L could reach Category 1 hurricane strength. In terms of track, all of the models are forecasting a recurving pattern. The ECMWF pushes the potential cyclone farthest west, possibly reaching Hispaniola. The HWRF carries the system northwest over the next three days, and across Puerto Rico. The GFS has a similar solution this morning, as well. The model with the eastern-most forecast is the GFDL, which expects 98L to track north-northwest, scraping the eastern side of the Lesser Antilles, and avoiding land thereafter.

The National Hurricane Center gives 98L a 50% chance of development over the next 48 hours.

Angela

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it appears that there might be a relocation of a possible coc with 98L near 11.5n 55w.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2710
Quoting CaribBoy:
98L LOOKS GOOD ON VISIBLE(RAMSDIS)


Link

Look how the winds are racing infront of 98l instead of slowing down. Is the same problem all this year when a system enters the caribbean.
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Good afternoon. I'm glad the NHC classified 97L... I really didn't think they would but it definitely deserved it. Certainly an atypical system though.

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TS Patty defying all odds. :)
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29. SLU
I see common sense has finally prevailed at the NHC.

16-8-1
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98L LOOKS GOOD ON VISIBLE(RAMSDIS)


Link

Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6226
Do you see what I see?

MMMM... The GFS is Totally wrong in their 200MB solution.
It has the upper low a couple of hundred miles too far east.
The upper low is now moving to the west and is over south eastern DomRep

Quoting CaribBoy:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST THU OCT 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...THE LOCAL AREA IS BETWEEN TWO TUTT LOWS...ONE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE OTHER OVER THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
WEATHER REGIME UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND BE
NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
PART OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FA REMAINS BETWEEN A TUTT LOW OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THESE FEATURES
IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
AND LOCAL EFFECTS INDUCED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. FOR TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN A GOOD LOCATION TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...AN "OVERALL" DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED
TO ENCOMPASS THE FA AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BIT LESS COVERAGE OF
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN TODAY.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND...THE LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE CLOSELY
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND ALTHOUGH WE ARE 24 HOURS CLOSER TO
THE EVENT...THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY REGARDING TRACK AND FORWARD SPEED. NHC INDICATES
THAT THIS FEATURE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY
TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHAT EFFECTS THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE
ON THE LOCAL AREA...IT APPEARS AT THIS POINT...THAT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WOULD BE OVER THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AND NOT ETCHED IN STONE. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM

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Neat thunderstorm in my area.
Speed / Dir 21 mph from ESE Wind Gust 44 mph

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Quoting Gorty:


Does that "TS" mean its a storm now?
According to the NHC's ATCF it does, should you choose to believe them. (The name "PATTY" will likely be appended to the final line of that ATCF in place of the word "SIXTEEN" in very short order, but we really won't know until the 1700 TWO, unless the NHC upgrades it before then...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
MMMM... The GFS is Totally wrong in their 200MB solution.
It has the upper low a couple of hundred miles too far east.
The upper low is now moving to the west and is over south eastern DomRep
Compare


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Saturday has forecasts of up to near 30kts of NE winds.... gonna be a good bodysurfing day :D
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST THU OCT 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...THE LOCAL AREA IS BETWEEN TWO TUTT LOWS...ONE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE OTHER OVER THE ATLANTIC JUST NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
WEATHER REGIME UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND BE
NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...POSSIBLY AFFECTING
PART OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FA REMAINS BETWEEN A TUTT LOW OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THESE FEATURES
IN COMBINATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
AND LOCAL EFFECTS INDUCED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. FOR TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN A GOOD LOCATION TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...AN "OVERALL" DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED
TO ENCOMPASS THE FA AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BIT LESS COVERAGE OF
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN TODAY.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND...THE LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE CLOSELY
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND ALTHOUGH WE ARE 24 HOURS CLOSER TO
THE EVENT...THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY REGARDING TRACK AND FORWARD SPEED. NHC INDICATES
THAT THIS FEATURE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY
TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHAT EFFECTS THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE
ON THE LOCAL AREA...IT APPEARS AT THIS POINT...THAT THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WOULD BE OVER THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AND NOT ETCHED IN STONE. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6226
Thank you Angela
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26410
Super Nice!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I love the new map size TWC came up with...awesome
and snow the radar includes certain places in Mexico, west Cuba, the Lesser Antilles and east Canada...amazing big look on my 27" imac...


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Quoting Neapolitan:
Even more interesting:

AL, 16, 2012101118, , BEST, 0, 258N, 723W, 35, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, M,


Does that "TS" mean its a storm now?
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Even more interesting; the ATCF says we have Patty:

AL, 16, 2012101118, , BEST, 0, 258N, 723W, 35, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, M,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13549
History for Grantley Adams, Barbados
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Quoting Gorty:
Who thinks TD 16 will get named?
I believe it is certainly possible.
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Thanks Angela...
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UKMET 42HR

Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6226
Who thinks TD 16 will get named?
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


TD 16



hopefully the NHC is right about keeping this TD under TS strength all though out
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TD 16
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I love the new map size TWC came up with...awesome
and snow the radar includes certain places in Mexico, west Cuba, the Lesser Antilles and east Canada...amazing big look on my 27" imac...

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View of the Caribbean in rainbow TD16 and 98L in view
Loop embedded

Link
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Thanks for the blog Angela
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98 is struggling
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yeee!!! TD 16!
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Thanks Angela..:)I was thinking T.D.16 would head N.E. and get a name..Oh well.
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cmc is interesting for sure
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Thanks.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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