Tropical Depression Sixteen has formed; 98L likely to develop

By: Angela Fritz , 6:06 PM GMT on October 11, 2012

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Tropical Depression Sixteen formed from 97L this morning, though continues to be no threat and is expected to dissipate by Friday night. The depression is located east of the Bahamas and north of the Turks and Caicos Islands, and has had organized thunderstorm activity over the past couple of days, though an approaching cold front is beginning to take its toll on the system, which is apparent on satellite loops. Wind shear is around 20 knots from the southwest and increasing, which is exposing the cyclone's center of circulation and will result in the cyclone's demise. The system's thunderstorm activity could reach the far eastern Bahamas on Friday, but it's likely that Sixteen will not impact the islands before dissipating.


Figure 1. Visible satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Sixteen captured at 1:17pm EDT.

98L still likely to develop

Strong thunderstorm activity continues in 98L today, despite strong wind shear to its north, around 30 knots. This wind shear is expected to decrease over the next few days, providing a window for the wave to develop over the weekend. Most of the models are expecting 98L to to strengthen to a tropical storm by Sunday. The GFS and the GFDL even go as far to say that 98L could reach Category 1 hurricane strength. In terms of track, all of the models are forecasting a recurving pattern. The ECMWF pushes the potential cyclone farthest west, possibly reaching Hispaniola. The HWRF carries the system northwest over the next three days, and across Puerto Rico. The GFS has a similar solution this morning, as well. The model with the eastern-most forecast is the GFDL, which expects 98L to track north-northwest, scraping the eastern side of the Lesser Antilles, and avoiding land thereafter.

The National Hurricane Center gives 98L a 50% chance of development over the next 48 hours.

Angela

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42261
Afternoon all! I see we have Tropical Storm Patty, and judging by 98L's appearance, we may be talking about Tropical Storm Rafael over the weekend.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24576
Quoting kwgirl:
I wasn't aware of the 1846 storm unless it is the one that filled in the salt pond and stream that was in the middle of Duval St. But there have been several hurricanes on Oct 10th or 11th that hit on consecutive years. I believe in the 1910's or somewhere around there.
according to the NWS..October is the month most hurricanes have Hit florida, folks dont go to sleep on this month..keep watching these systems..the season is NOT over, and the waters in the gulf are still..mid 80's ok
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42261
Quoting kwgirl:
I wasn't aware of the 1846 storm unless it is the one that filled in the salt pond and stream that was in the middle of Duval St. But there have been several hurricanes on Oct 10th or 11th that hit on consecutive years. I believe in the 1910's or somewhere around there.
What is scary is that back then... People had no idea when a hurricane was on the way... All of the sudden.. The winds blow, harder and harder...How scary... Check out the movie "KEY LARGO" with Bogie and Becall.
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Quoting kwgirl:
I wasn't aware of the 1846 storm unless it is the one that filled in the salt pond and stream that was in the middle of Duval St. But there have been several hurricanes on Oct 10th or 11th that hit on consecutive years. I believe in the 1910's or somewhere around there.


I wasn't either but I just found this in Wiki:

In the Florida Keys, 20 boats and ships were sunk,dismasted or grounded by the storm. The twin lighthouses at Sand Key and Key West collapsed, drowning people who had taken refuge in them. The large naval hospital in Key West was severely damaged, and 594 of the island's 600 buildings were either damaged or destroyed.[6] A 5-foot (1.5 m) storm surge, combined with very strong winds of Category 4 to possibly Category 5 intensity caused about $200,000 dollars (1846 USD) in damage in Key West ($3.96 million 2005 USD). A total of 50 people were reported killed in Key West. The surge washed many corpses out of the cemetery that was located on the beach on the south side of the island. The following year the cemetery was moved to a higher point on the island near Solares Hill. Other parts of the Florida Keys experienced storm surge of up to 12 ft (3.7 m), above most of the islands' highest points.

In Cedar Key where landfall likely occurred, hundreds of oak trees were toppled and houses were gutted.

Reportedly, 40 people in mainland Florida lost their lives.
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Quoting SLU:
Look at the swirl 80 miles SE of Barbados. Looks like the LLC has closed off. This is at least a TD now guys.



lol things got real similar to Shary and Tomas in 2010... this time 2012 its Patty and soon to be Rafael

frm a trini based in st.lucia i hope thee monitoring it!.
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Quoting SLU:
Look at the swirl 80 miles SE of Barbados. Looks like the LLC has closed off. This is at least a TD now guys.
The numbers should go up is moving NNW directly towards Barbados, ..yes agree, its a close circulation....
Member Since: May 31, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1008
Quoting SLU:
Look at the swirl 80 miles SE of Barbados. Looks like the LLC has closed off. This is at least a TD now guys.
Look to the RGB image in the 98L floater and you will see a nice burst of convection there . I think that's the LLC you're refering to. For some reason the visible image is 30 minutes behind the RGB image.
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75. SLU
Look at the swirl 80 miles SE of Barbados. Looks like the LLC has closed off. This is at least a TD now guys.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5367
Quoting icmoore:
US NWS Tampa Bay, FL


Did you know, that on this date back in 1846 a Major Hurricane struck Key West? It is often referred to as the Great Havana Hurricane as it first made landfall in western Cuba, likely as a Category 5 Hurricane on October 10th.

It then struck Key West, and was suspected to have been a Category 4 or Category 5 storm on October 11th. The Hurricane continued up the west Florida coast impacting Tampa Bay as a Major Hurricane on October 13th. As it approached, it sucked the water out of Tampa Bay, causing the Manatee River to be so low that people supposedly walked horses across it.

The Hurricane then continued to move northward likely making landfall in Levy county. The storm didn't end there, as it continued to track northward through Georgia, the Carolinas, and the Mid-Atlantic States. The Great Havana Hurricane caused at least 163 deaths and extensive damage throughout the areas it affected.





















I wasn't aware of the 1846 storm unless it is the one that filled in the salt pond and stream that was in the middle of Duval St. But there have been several hurricanes on Oct 10th or 11th that hit on consecutive years. I believe in the 1910's or somewhere around there.
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Quoting Speeky:
who thinks 2012 hurricane season will reach 19 named storms?
I'm still amazed we actually passed 15... that was my original thinking. That makes 2 years in a row I underforecast the numbers....

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

85% percent.

AL, 16, 2012101118, , BEST, 0, 258N, 723W, 35, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, M,
Hmm... hadn't seen that. Wondering now if I should have brought the hurricane fan home...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22734
72. SLU
Quoting stoormfury:
SLU hope i am seeing right



it's mid-level as you said. look about 80 SE of Barbados and u'll see the circulation tightening up there. this is almost a TD. i hope you guys are ready for this approaching storm. i'm not in St. Lucia to enjoy it with yall :(
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5367
Quoting Grothar:
Umbrella Alert for the Bahamas. Possible raincoat advisory at 8:00 PM

I'll take the rain if it means I get to keep these cooler temperatures for a while...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22734
Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL

I was wondering where all the action went...

What chance would you guys give TD 16 of making it to TS?


80%-90% as ATCF has it as a TS and the NHC should probably go with TS Patty today.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
US NWS Tampa Bay, FL


Did you know, that on this date back in 1846 a Major Hurricane struck Key West? It is often referred to as the Great Havana Hurricane as it first made landfall in western Cuba, likely as a Category 5 Hurricane on October 10th.

It then struck Key West, and was suspected to have been a Category 4 or Category 5 storm on October 11th. The Hurricane continued up the west Florida coast impacting Tampa Bay as a Major Hurricane on October 13th. As it approached, it sucked the water out of Tampa Bay, causing the Manatee River to be so low that people supposedly walked horses across it.

The Hurricane then continued to move northward likely making landfall in Levy county. The storm didn't end there, as it continued to track northward through Georgia, the Carolinas, and the Mid-Atlantic States. The Great Havana Hurricane caused at least 163 deaths and extensive damage throughout the areas it affected.


<>a href="Photobucket" target="_blank">
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Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL

I was wondering where all the action went...

What chance would you guys give TD 16 of making it to TS?



I believe, in accordance to the ATCF numbers people are posting, that it is.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL

I was wondering where all the action went...

What chance would you guys give TD 16 of making it to TS?



75% by 5pm
60% by 11pm
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Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL

I was wondering where all the action went...

What chance would you guys give TD 16 of making it to TS?


85% percent.

AL, 16, 2012101118, , BEST, 0, 258N, 723W, 35, 1007, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, M,
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Nice burst of convection at about 12.2, 58.0 for 98L rigth now.
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Quoting Speeky:
who thinks 2012 hurricane season will reach 19 named storms?

If we get Patty from 97L and Rafael from 98L that will bring us to 17 storms. Even then I don't think we will reach 19, maybe 18 storms.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
LOL

I was wondering where all the action went...

What chance would you guys give TD 16 of making it to TS?

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22734
who thinks 2012 hurricane season will reach 19 named storms?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The circulation in association with 98L has really tightened up on false visible satellite loops. Look to the southeast of Barbados.



LLC is slowly starting to tighten up and it seems nicely stacked, however there is not a lot of convection around the center as of yet. But it might become TD 17 once the HH Hunter go out tomorrow.
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Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #55
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
3:00 AM JST October 12 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (940 hPa) located at 19.5N 128.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 20.0N 128.6E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
48 HRS: 20.7N 128.5E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 21.6N 128.7E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 47000
Quoting Grothar:
Umbrella Alert for the Bahamas. Possible raincoat advisory at 8:00 PM

Misses ahWiggins
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There is a jump in the loop, but shows things nicely..
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Umbrella Alert for the Bahamas. Possible raincoat advisory at 8:00 PM

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, obviously kidding about somebody's death.
Geeeez
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On the very last frame (1945), thunderstorms are popping right at the center
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Kidding, Right?

Yeah, obviously kidding about somebody's death.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Good afternoon everyone, I would like to say today is a good day but I can not. A classmate of mine has passed last night and today is a sad day. However, I see we got TD16, which ATCF says is now Patty, and 98L looks to develop. The weather in my area is a mild, sunny, windy day. Freeze warnings are in affect again and the growing season will likely be over soon.
I'm sorry... I've been in your shoes like many of us....It's tough to handle
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October 10 was the first day since July 31 that the National Hurricane Center was not issuing advisories on a tropical cyclone either in the Atlantic or East Pacific.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Don't feel sad for the dead, feel sorry for the living, and all the struggles that us as human beings have to go through.
Kidding, Right?
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The circulation in association with 98L has really tightened up on false visible satellite loops. Look to the southeast of Barbados.

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Quoting wxchaser97:
Good afternoon everyone, I would like to say today is a good day but I can not. A classmate of mine has passed last night and today is a sad day. However, I see we got TD16, which ATCF says is now Patty, and 98L looks to develop. The weather in my area is a mild, sunny, windy day. Freeze warnings are in affect again and the growing season will likely be over soon.


I'm sorry for your loss.
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i'm interested in the low pressure system over southern california. on the water vapor loop it seems to be intensifying nicely. i wonder what it will send across the continent once it comes completely onshore.
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TD 16 should become Patty at 5pm. 98L continues to get better organize however the NHC hold it a conservative 50. With the model agreement, improving conditions, and better organization it should get bumped up to at least 60% until there is a better defined LLC.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Don't feel sad for the dead, feel sorry for the living, and all the struggles that us as human beings have to go through.

I said today is a sad day, because my school has to now think of what happened. I'm not going into the small details I have since this is a family blog.

Anyway I think we could see Patty for an advisory or two. 98L will be the bigger threat and there is a severe weather event tomorrow and Saturday.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting wxchaser97:
Good afternoon everyone, I would like to say today is a good day but I can not. A classmate of mine has passed last night and today is a sad day. However, I see we got TD16, which ATCF says is now Patty, and 98L looks to develop. The weather in my area is a mild, sunny, windy day. Freeze warnings are in affect again and the growing season will likely be over soon.

Don't feel sad for the dead, feel sorry for the living, and all the struggles that us as human beings have to go through.
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PATTY, AL, L, , , , , 16, 2012, TS, O, 2012100612, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, AL162012


Link
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Quoting VR46L:


Sorry to hear that its tough losing a friend when you are so young, its tough at any time but its real hard when the person was so young ..Take care

Thanks, it is strange to think about that a high schooler did what he did. I didn't know him too well s he was a grade above me but it is tough for the whole school.
Quoting FtMyersgal:


I'm sorry for your loss wx. It's gonna be tough. It's hard to understand when someone so young passes.

Quoting 12george1:

wxchaser97, where do you live?

I am in SE MI, I may get some severe weather on Saturday.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
I guess if the upgrade to Patty is correct, there will probably be tropical storm watches/warnings up. One, Patty will probably last longer due to the slightly strengthening, and two, it is of TS intensity and near land.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Good afternoon everyone, I would like to say today is a good day but I can not. A classmate of mine has passed last night and today is a sad day. However, I see we got TD16, which ATCF says is now Patty, and 98L looks to develop. The weather in my area is a mild, sunny, windy day. Freeze warnings are in affect again and the growing season will likely be over soon.

wxchaser97, where do you live?
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Good afternoon everyone, I would like to say today is a good day but I can not. A classmate of mine has passed last night and today is a sad day. However, I see we got TD16, which ATCF says is now Patty, and 98L looks to develop. The weather in my area is a mild, sunny, windy day. Freeze warnings are in affect again and the growing season will likely be over soon.


I'm sorry for your loss wx. It's gonna be tough. It's hard to understand when someone so young passes.
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1219
look at the infra red loop and the area of circulation can be clearly seen. maybe its the mid level circulatin.
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Quoting wxchaser97:
Good afternoon everyone, I would like to say today is a good day but I can not. A classmate of mine has passed last night and today is a sad day. However, I see we got TD16, which ATCF says is now Patty, and 98L looks to develop. The weather in my area is a mild, sunny, windy day. Freeze warnings are in affect again and the growing season will likely be over soon.


Sorry to hear that its tough losing a friend when you are so young, its tough at any time but its real hard when the person was so young ..Take care
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6998
Good afternoon everyone, I would like to say today is a good day but I can not. A classmate of mine has passed last night and today is a sad day. However, I see we got TD16, which ATCF says is now Patty, and 98L looks to develop. The weather in my area is a mild, sunny, windy day. Freeze warnings are in affect again and the growing season will likely be over soon.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting stoormfury:
it appears that there might be a relocation of a possible coc with 98L near 11.5n 55w.


i'm noticing that also ...it's trying hard to get that decent spin to it's center..
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SLU hope i am seeing right
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it appears that there might be a relocation of a possible coc with 98L near 11.5n 55w.
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