Tropical Depression Sixteen has formed; 98L likely to develop

By: Angela Fritz , 6:06 PM GMT on October 11, 2012

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Tropical Depression Sixteen formed from 97L this morning, though continues to be no threat and is expected to dissipate by Friday night. The depression is located east of the Bahamas and north of the Turks and Caicos Islands, and has had organized thunderstorm activity over the past couple of days, though an approaching cold front is beginning to take its toll on the system, which is apparent on satellite loops. Wind shear is around 20 knots from the southwest and increasing, which is exposing the cyclone's center of circulation and will result in the cyclone's demise. The system's thunderstorm activity could reach the far eastern Bahamas on Friday, but it's likely that Sixteen will not impact the islands before dissipating.


Figure 1. Visible satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Sixteen captured at 1:17pm EDT.

98L still likely to develop

Strong thunderstorm activity continues in 98L today, despite strong wind shear to its north, around 30 knots. This wind shear is expected to decrease over the next few days, providing a window for the wave to develop over the weekend. Most of the models are expecting 98L to to strengthen to a tropical storm by Sunday. The GFS and the GFDL even go as far to say that 98L could reach Category 1 hurricane strength. In terms of track, all of the models are forecasting a recurving pattern. The ECMWF pushes the potential cyclone farthest west, possibly reaching Hispaniola. The HWRF carries the system northwest over the next three days, and across Puerto Rico. The GFS has a similar solution this morning, as well. The model with the eastern-most forecast is the GFDL, which expects 98L to track north-northwest, scraping the eastern side of the Lesser Antilles, and avoiding land thereafter.

The National Hurricane Center gives 98L a 50% chance of development over the next 48 hours.

Angela

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Quoting junie1:
looking good seems we might get real wet and windy up here in the northern leewards


I hope all the weather won't stay east and laugh at us.
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winds picking up on the east coast now..............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
Quoting kmanislander:


The other interesting thing to watch for is whether 98L moving to the N interacts with the steering for TS Patty driving it into the NW Caribbean instead of dissipating as presently being forecasted. The Canadian still favours that solution and even has Patty organizing in our area. Other models have also come on board with this solution.
yep thats what im watching out for gro....there ARE models having it crossing cuba and still alive..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
Quoting CaribBoy:
Burst of convection continues to expend with 98L

Link
looking good seems we might get real wet and windy up here in the northern leewards
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I just finished a blog about everything going on in the tropics.

Link
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Quoting kmanislander:
98L may have a closed surface low now based upon visible imagery. Low level Westerly inflow is evident at 12N and 58W where the center is consolidating



Yes this might be renumbered on the ATFC file later this evening there is clearly a consolidating LLC to the SE of Barbados and there is a nice burst of convection over the LLC if that can increase this is a TS by 8pm.
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Quoting Grothar:


Yep, just like we said last night. If 97L went South, 98L would go NW.


The other interesting thing to watch for is whether 98L moving to the N interacts with the steering for TS Patty driving it into the NW Caribbean instead of dissipating as presently being forecasted. The Canadian still favours that solution and even has Patty organizing in our area. Other models have also come on board with this solution.
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Burst of convection continues to expend with 98L

Link
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from the Miami herald...........
Since 1851, hurricane center records show 19 storms have struck South Florida in October, compared to 15 in September and 11 in August.

In October, the patterns that produce hurricanes tend to shift. Tropical waves rolling off Africa and spinning up off the Cape Verde Islands begin to dissolve as ocean waters start to cool and winds aloft begin to strengthen.

At the same time, stirrings in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico tend to pick up as cold fronts pushing down from the north collide with the warm, moist atmosphere to the south, often sparking storms. A bi-weekly forecast produced by Colorado State University climate scientists Phil Klotzbach and William Gray predicts an average level of activity over the next few weeks, with potential rising toward the middle of the month.

For Florida, location is the primary problem with October storms — they form to the south and tend to move north, with less time and space to veer harmlessly out to sea.

“If you form in the western Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico, you’re probably going to hit land somewhere,” hurricane center Director Rick Knabb said. “We’ve seen a lot of storms in the past affect South Florida from the south. Think of Wilma in 2005 and Irene in 1999.”

Later season storms also can prove powerful. At one point while in the Caribbean, Hurricane Wilma’s winds reached 185 mph and became the most intense Category 5 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin. The storm would eventually do some $29 billion in damage in Florida, Cuba and the Yucatán Peninsula and kill more than 60 people.

Though tropical storms can form at any time of year, the official season tends to slow in November before ending on Dec. 1.
















Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/01/3028261/for- florida-higher-odds-for-october.html#storylink=cpy
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
Texas Also had some really Bad ones...........1900 hurricane slammed into Galveston, Texas killing 8,000 people. A category 4 hurricane, it struck the island with sustained winds of 140 miles per hour. With no radar, tracking, or predictions, there were no preparations made for the storm. The highest elevation in Galveston in 1900 was 8.7 feet; the 15.7 foot storm surge covered the homes and businesses like an ocean. It cost $20 million at the time; in today's money, the damage would have cost $700 million. After the hurricane, Galveston raised a sea wall and increased the grade of the island to prevent a recurrence of the tragedy.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
Yes this is the NAM but ... it's very interesting.

Here is the 18Z RUN.... Link

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Quoting Grothar:


From Wunderground:



1. Katrina (LA/MS/AL/SE FL) 2005 3 $105,840,000,000
2. Andrew (SE FL/SE LA) 1992 5 $45,561,000,000
3. Ike (TX/LA/MS) 2008 2 $27,790,000,000
4. Wilma (FL) 2005 3 $20,587,000,000

Link

GRO we have been sooo lucky here huh..impossible to even imagine the destruction of a cat-5 hitting tampa and crossing central florida
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
Quoting kmanislander:


Looks like the center of 98L is establishing itself to the immediate SE of Barbados and may track right over or just S or E of that island. NW motion seems to be in the works now.


Yep, just like we said last night. If 97L went South, 98L would go NW.
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98L may have a closed surface low now based upon visible imagery. Low level Westerly inflow is evident at 12N and 58W where the center is consolidating

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Quoting LargoFl:
..just looking at wilma's pic, had that hit Tampa bay and crossed central florida directly, the damage might have been in the Billions..whew


From Wunderground:



1. Katrina (LA/MS/AL/SE FL) 2005 3 $105,840,000,000
2. Andrew (SE FL/SE LA) 1992 5 $45,561,000,000
3. Ike (TX/LA/MS) 2008 2 $27,790,000,000
4. Wilma (FL) 2005 3 $20,587,000,000

Link

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Quoting Grothar:
Small burst of convection beginning with 98L. Should begin moving more NW soon.



Looks like the center of 98L is establishing itself to the immediate SE of Barbados and may track right over or just S or E of that island. NW motion seems to be in the works now.
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Small burst of convection beginning with 98L. Should begin moving more NW soon.

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Quoting TomTaylor:
Indeed.

Living in southern California, I can affirm that thunderstorms are very rare, especially in the coastal regions. Subsidence on the backside of the semi-permanent NE Pacific ridge and cool SSTs maintain a very dry and stable air mass over the region. During the summer months, however, if the Texas/Mexico ridge is pushed far enough west, tropical moisture (sometimes even a tropical waves) can be pushed up into our neck of the woods. The coastal mountain ranges you describe provide perfect mechanisms for lift, as a result, we usually see convective build ups over these mountain ranges.

During the winter months, sometimes a passing low will have air cold enough aloft to provide the instability for thunderstorm development. Such is the case right now, as a matter of a fact. A passing cut-off low has provided isolated thunderstorms over the southern California region today. In fact, here is the view looking south toward the ocean from my dorm window at the University of California, Santa Barbara taken from my iPhone...




In the image above, convective buildup is occurring over one of the Channel Islands, which is a small series of islands in the Pacific Ocean, not a part of the coastal mountain range. In the image below, however, I am at the beach looking north at the coastal mountain range




Pretty cool for us weather deprived folk in southern California
Great pictures, Tom. And they make me a little homesick; I lived and worked in and around Santa Barbara for a numbers of years until the mid 2000s. SB, Goleta, Montecito, Carpinteria, Ojai, Santa Paula. In fact, my primary ex-employer has a fairly large HQ building in Goleta near Fairview and Hollister. Wish I were there today to see those clouds; I know from experience that's a rare sight, indeed...
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NHC statistics show 40 percent of all U.S. and major hurricanes hit Florida. Eighty-three percent of category 4 or higher hurricane strikes have hit either Florida or Texas; both Florida and Texas have extensive coastlines, which is reflected in the number of occurrences
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Patty cake, Patty cake...

we will keep watching this one also Baha
Ya'll are still pretty likely to at least get some rain from this if it does drop south the way the models are forecasting.... Tomorrow is a public holiday and traditionally the last big beach day of "summer"... lots of picnics and cookouts etc... will be interesting to see how much of the moisture out there actually makes it our way...
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Does it it is a record to have 16 name storms without neither failing to stay at td status? I remember 2008 end with 15 until td 16 broke the streak and couldn`t strength.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
It sure sucked here in Palm Beach county...Worst one I have been through
..I can imagine..it was pretty bad up here too but nothing like down south where the eye came thru, wind up here almost blew me off I-4 coming back from orlando..should have known not to chance it with a hurricane crossing florida, but..back then i figured it was a south florida storm..BOY did I ever get a good lesson LOL
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good afternoon. I'm glad the NHC classified 97L... I really didn't think they would but it definitely deserved it. Certainly an atypical system though.

They strugle a lot, not to classify, but you can't be on denial ,,when the obvious is so evident ,looks and it's a TS.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
It sure sucked here in Palm Beach county...Worst one I have been through
..whew just imagine..Tampa-Orlando and Daytona..all wiped out..That is what would have happened if Wilma came Into tampa bay and crossed the state up here..OMG
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
Patty cake, Patty cake...

we will keep watching this one also Baha
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6032
Quoting Neapolitan:
Current as of now. That is, including TS Patty's first TWO:

NHC

NHC

NHC

NHC
Good stuff, Nea. I like the visual representations.
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Quoting LargoFl:
..just looking at wilma's pic, had that hit Tampa bay and crossed central florida directly, the damage might have been in the Billions..whew
It sure sucked here in Palm Beach county...Worst one I have been through
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Discussion 2 is already out. This caught my eye:

GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT PATTY COULD REACH THE BAHAMAS AS A TROPICAL STORM...AND
THEREFORE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ISLANDS.

Sure hope there's no egg on anybody's face or unexpected water in anybody's house...
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Quoting LargoFl:
IF this dont scare you,Nothing will, this is what the folks are remembering, Wilma, one awful Hurricane...........
..just looking at wilma's pic, had that hit Tampa bay and crossed central florida directly, the damage might have been in the Billions..whew
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
Quoting LargoFl:
IF this dont scare you,Nothing will, this is what the folks are remembering, Wilma, one awful Hurricane...........



the most intense cyclone in the Atlantic basin ever recorded who can forget it!.
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History has been made with this list now that Patty has form. counting the sub tropical storm in 2000 that should had been named Oscar.Patty is now officially in the NHC page btw.
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Quoting FLWaterFront:


Severe thunderstorms are quite rare in Southern California, particularly in the coastal regions.

But I recall a storm that happened in Orange County, CA in August of 1979 when I was there that was as bad as anything I have ever seen in Florida. This storm had intense cloud-to-ground lightning, large hail, straight-line wind gusts over 75 mph. and about 1.50 inches of rain. An inch and a half of rain is a monstrous total in that area for a single event that lasts only an hour or less.

On rare occasions during the monsoon season the tongue of moisture from the tropical Pacific and the Gulf of California which causes the monsoon effect further to the east over AZ and NM can reach as far west as the L.A. basin. When it gets there if it clashes with the more common and cooler maritime flow from the west, this can cause a gust front to form, allowing for the development of unusually powerful thunderstorms. The orographic effect produced by the various coastal mountain ranges can further enhance this effect. Nevertheless, all of this rarely happens.

Later in the year, jet stream aberrations in combination with some Pacific moisture flowing up from the south can also allow for localized severe wx development. Either way, it is an anomaly when it happens in that region because the normal weather patterns there feature much more stable air at all levels in the atmosphere.
Indeed.

Living in southern California, I can affirm that thunderstorms are very rare, especially in the coastal regions. Subsidence on the backside of the semi-permanent NE Pacific ridge and cool SSTs maintain a very dry and stable air mass over the region. During the summer months, however, if the Texas/Mexico ridge is pushed far enough west, tropical moisture (sometimes even a tropical wave) can be pushed up into our neck of the woods. The coastal mountain ranges you describe provide perfect mechanisms for lift, as a result, we usually see convective build ups over these mountain ranges.

During the winter months, sometimes a passing low will have air cold enough aloft to provide the instability for thunderstorm development. Such is the case right now, as a matter of a fact. A passing cut-off low has provided isolated thunderstorms over the southern California region today. In fact, here is the view looking south toward the ocean from my dorm window at the University of California, Santa Barbara taken from my iPhone...




In the image above, convective buildup is occurring over the Channel Islands, which are a small series of islands in the Pacific Ocean, not a part of the coastal mountain range. In the image below, however, I am at the beach looking north at the coastal mountain range




Not the most impressive thunderstorms ever, but pretty cool nonetheless for us weather deprived folk in southern California
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
IF this dont scare you,Nothing will, this is what the folks are remembering, Wilma, one awful Hurricane...........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474

Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 120
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Largo...I will never forget Wilma...an October storm


Me either PalmBeach. I was without power for 10 days. At least the weather was cooler than when I was without power for 11 days in 2004 with Charley
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1216
98. SLU
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PATTY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
500 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...PATTY FORMS BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 72.5W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5132
IF TD16 can stay together and cross Cuba.it hits 85 degree water................................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
96. SLU
Quoting tatoprweather:
Look to the RGB image in the 98L floater and you will see a nice burst of convection there . I think that's the LLC you're refering to. For some reason the visible image is 30 minutes behind the RGB image.


Yep and you can see how the new burst of convection dragged the LLC towards it on visible.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5132
Current as of now. That is, including TS Patty's first TWO:

NHC

NHC

NHC

NHC
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Yep, TD16 was upgraded to Patty.
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93. SLU
Quoting ZeusWrath:



lol things got real similar to Shary and Tomas in 2010... this time 2012 its Patty and soon to be Rafael

frm a trini based in st.lucia i hope thee monitoring it!.


lol

and i'm a lucian based in trinidad ... i'm gonna miss it :(
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5132
Quoting SLU:
Look at the swirl 80 miles SE of Barbados. Looks like the LLC has closed off. This is at least a TD now guys.

Needs convection. And a stronger circulation. It has just now began to spin up.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Largo...I will never forget Wilma...an October storm

Neither will I.
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Tampa was a small village when a major hurricane blew through in September 1848, pushing a massive storm surge into Tampa Bay and flooding the entire city.

The tide rose 15 feet above normal. Water covered all the islands in Tampa Bay and Tampa's Interbay Peninsula. Only the tops of trees could be seen near the flooded Hillsborough River. Most structures were swept away and huge oak trees were blown down. The massive change in topography the storm wrought rendered navigation charts almost useless.

It may have been the strongest storm ever to strike Tampa Bay.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
Quoting tatoprweather:
Nice burst of convection at about 12.2, 58.0 for 98L rigth now.
yes and that burst is exactly were the LLC is,, Close to a TD...for sure
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Largo...I will never forget Wilma...an October storm
yes that was a bad one,many people relax because it gets a bit cooler here..people really do need to keep aware of the systems ,especially any in the gulf, because there, this time of year they almost always cross back Over florida,going eastward.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474
This whole situation reminds me a bit of the Shary/Tomas ordeal in 2010 as someone mentioned.
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What's also amazing me so far this season is the activity drought in the Caribbean itself. I find it hard to believe we won't see one bad actor form / expand in the CAR this month.
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Quoting LargoFl:
according to the NWS..October is the month most hurricanes have Hit florida, folks dont go to sleep on this month..keep watching these systems..the season is NOT over, and the waters in the gulf are still..mid 80's ok
Largo...I will never forget Wilma...an October storm
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Misses ahWiggins


:)
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38474

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.