Tropical Depression Sixteen has formed; 98L likely to develop

By: Angela Fritz , 6:06 PM GMT on October 11, 2012

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Tropical Depression Sixteen formed from 97L this morning, though continues to be no threat and is expected to dissipate by Friday night. The depression is located east of the Bahamas and north of the Turks and Caicos Islands, and has had organized thunderstorm activity over the past couple of days, though an approaching cold front is beginning to take its toll on the system, which is apparent on satellite loops. Wind shear is around 20 knots from the southwest and increasing, which is exposing the cyclone's center of circulation and will result in the cyclone's demise. The system's thunderstorm activity could reach the far eastern Bahamas on Friday, but it's likely that Sixteen will not impact the islands before dissipating.


Figure 1. Visible satellite imagery of Tropical Depression Sixteen captured at 1:17pm EDT.

98L still likely to develop

Strong thunderstorm activity continues in 98L today, despite strong wind shear to its north, around 30 knots. This wind shear is expected to decrease over the next few days, providing a window for the wave to develop over the weekend. Most of the models are expecting 98L to to strengthen to a tropical storm by Sunday. The GFS and the GFDL even go as far to say that 98L could reach Category 1 hurricane strength. In terms of track, all of the models are forecasting a recurving pattern. The ECMWF pushes the potential cyclone farthest west, possibly reaching Hispaniola. The HWRF carries the system northwest over the next three days, and across Puerto Rico. The GFS has a similar solution this morning, as well. The model with the eastern-most forecast is the GFDL, which expects 98L to track north-northwest, scraping the eastern side of the Lesser Antilles, and avoiding land thereafter.

The National Hurricane Center gives 98L a 50% chance of development over the next 48 hours.

Angela

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Nam at 84 hours....................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39311
Quoting Grothar:
Almost all models have TD16 moving into the Caribbean. I do not see any now that move it back NE anymore. Also, when the new models come out, I believe they will all show 98L moving NW then North either to the east over the islands on over the island moving North.




its now a TS
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54479
This OSCAT pass just downloaded and shows the center of 98L earlier today and well to the SW of the present position we are now seeing. This pass was at 16:26 UTC today.

The current center just SE of Barbados is therefore a relocation and not due to actual steering motion. Quite typical of a sheared system.

The last few visible frames suggest a West to WNW motion continuing for now near 12 N and 59 W

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39311
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54479
Almost all models have Patty moving into the Caribbean. I do not see any now that move it back NE anymore. Also, when the new models come out, I believe they will all show 98L moving NW then North either to the east over the islands on over the island moving North.

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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54479
GFS at 27 hours,still there.............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39311
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54479
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54479
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54479
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54479
18z gfs run start 6 hr end 144 hr

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54479
Quoting kmanislander:


The models that have Patty diving to the SW do so as a result of a ridge of high pressure building over the top of Patty and once the ridge migrates to the East it steers Patty to the SW. The motion of 98L around the Western flank of the Atlantic ridge which is steering that system would cause the storms to interact potentially when 98L reaches the area near PR. That interaction could reinforce Patty's motion to the SW and into the NW Caribbean.

98L is not presently forecasted to remain in the Caribbean or enter the NW part of the basin. However, if it were to stall near PR and high pressure then built it over the top of it a WNW motion could set in. For now the models do not see that and call for 98L to lift out to the N and NNW near PR, eventually recurving in the N Atlantic.


I believe that is what the LBAR model is seeing.
See post 156.
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Quoting kmanislander:


I recall that. Its a long shot perhaps but who knows. Stranger things have happened in Oct. and Nov.


I agree Kman..
Most everyone I've seen post from the Carribean this year has said it has been un-usually hot..
Not to mention the very high water temps seem a bit warmer than usual..
Looks to me that anything goes right now.. :)
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


maybe instead of wishing for rain
wish for no rain
then he may get some


I should try..
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6240
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think it may cross enough of the NE corner to satisfy Caribboy... lol... but that's about it....



Ah, be nice now. :):)
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I think it may cross enough of the NE corner to satisfy Caribboy... lol... but that's about it....



Lol I WOULD LIKE 98L TO BRING ME SOMETHING INTERESTING TO WATCH IN REAL TIME.
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Quoting JRRP:

i do not see a NNW movement...


That is because it hasn't started yet. :)
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Quoting Grothar:


Well, not trying to be funny, but 3 days ago when 97L had been dropped. I showed it moving into the western Caribbean. I think 7544 and hydrus were the only ones that responded. If it survives across Cuba, it could. It does look a little hostile though, with that front moving in. They can dissipate a system quickly.





I recall that. Its a long shot perhaps but who knows. Stranger things have happened in Oct. and Nov.
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162. SLU
Quoting JRRP:
Link
radar of barbados is showing more WNW than NW motion


It does seem so. If it passes south of Barbados it will be good since they will be on the stronger side and will be able to provide the NHC with vital wind speed info before the RECON arrives tomorrow.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5262
Quoting BahaHurican:
I think it may cross enough of the NE corner to satisfy Caribboy... lol... but that's about it....



maybe instead of wishing for rain
wish for no rain
then he may get some
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54479
160. SLU
Deja-vu

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5262
Quoting Hurricanes305:


I not sure Im following what you are saying that 98L moving N starts to interacts with Patty and as a result allows Patty to dive SW into the NW Caribbean and 98L recurves or does 98L get shoved into the NW Caribbean by Patty?


The models that have Patty diving to the SW do so as a result of a ridge of high pressure building over the top of Patty and once the ridge migrates to the East it steers Patty to the SW. The motion of 98L around the Western flank of the Atlantic ridge which is steering that system would cause the storms to interact potentially when 98L reaches the area near PR. That interaction could reinforce Patty's motion to the SW and into the NW Caribbean.

98L is not presently forecasted to remain in the Caribbean or enter the NW part of the basin. However, if it were to stall near PR and high pressure then built it over the top of it a WNW motion could set in. For now the models do not see that and call for 98L to lift out to the N and NNW near PR, eventually recurving in the N Atlantic.
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Quoting LargoFl:
Gro..more models now have it in the Carribean......


IDON'T THIS...IN THE CARRIBEAN,,,THAT WHERE WILMA WAS BORN.....
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I would LOL if Patty bombs out into a hurricane, and goes on to last for three weeks like Nadine.
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no models have 98 in the carribean..so far.......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39311
155. JRRP
Quoting Grothar:
I still don't see 98L going into the Eastern Caribbean very far at all.


i do not see a NNW movement...
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Quoting LargoFl:
Gro..more models now have it in the Carribean......


If it survives the high shear or the track over Cuba then it will be in a historically favorable NW Caribbean where it could get going.
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98 and patty might not cooperate with the models if patty makes it into the nw carib might be a game changer
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Quoting Grothar:
I still don't see 98L going into the Eastern Caribbean very far at all.

I think it may cross enough of the NE corner to satisfy Caribboy... lol... but that's about it....

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Gro..more models now have it in the Carribean......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39311
Special bulletin from the Barbados Weather Office:

Here is A SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN

issued by

The Barbados Meteorological Services

at 11:00 am on Thursday, 11th October, 2012.

The Barbados Meteorological Services is monitoring an area of low pressure centered near 10N�55W associated with an approaching tropical wave about 300 miles to the east of Barbados.

Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized during the past twelve (12) hours, and some gradual development is possible as the system moves over the Eastern Caribbean tomorrow.

The wave has already started to affect Barbados and will continue to spread cloudiness and occasional showers across the island over the next few days. Some pockets of moderate to heavy showers, scattered thunderstorms and gusty winds are likely to occur during the weekend.

Sea swells will range between 2.5 � 3.0 metres into the weekend, thus small craft operators and sea bathers should continue to exercise caution
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I still don't see 98L going into the Eastern Caribbean very far at all.

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Quoting kmanislander:


The other interesting thing to watch for is whether 98L moving to the N interacts with the steering for TS Patty driving it into the NW Caribbean instead of dissipating as presently being forecasted. The Canadian still favours that solution and even has Patty organizing in our area. Other models have also come on board with this solution.


Well, not trying to be funny, but 3 days ago when 97L had been dropped. I showed it moving into the western Caribbean. I think 7544 and hydrus were the only ones that responded. If it survives across Cuba, it could. It does look a little hostile though, with that front moving in. They can dissipate a system quickly.



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GFS takes 98L down to 1003mb by 54hrs.
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southern islands must be getting 98's rains already.....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39311
Quoting wxchaser97:
Good afternoon everyone, I would like to say today is a good day but I can not. A classmate of mine has passed last night and today is a sad day. However, I see we got TD16, which ATCF says is now Patty, and 98L looks to develop. The weather in my area is a mild, sunny, windy day. Freeze warnings are in affect again and the growing season will likely be over soon.


So sorry for the loss of your classmate.
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Quoting kmanislander:


The other interesting thing to watch for is whether 98L moving to the N interacts with the steering for TS Patty driving it into the NW Caribbean instead of dissipating as presently being forecasted. The Canadian still favours that solution and even has Patty organizing in our area. Other models have also come on board with this solution.


I not sure Im following what you are saying that 98L moving N starts to interacts with Patty and as a result allows Patty to dive SW into the NW Caribbean and 98L recurves or does 98L get shoved into the NW Caribbean by Patty?
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Shucks! Gotta go... :o(

Hopefully my meeting won't last too long tonight. [and maybe I can sneak some internet while I'm there... lol]
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Quoting pcola57:


And if memory serves correctly,
The evacuation for Wilma was terrible and many,many lives would have been lost and forever changed..
The real impact
oh yes,luckily there was time to warn people it was coming, guess we here in florida will get hit with these storms every so often huh..we stick out in the water like a sore thumb
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39311
The tropical depression in the Atlantic Ocean has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Patty.

The storm initially formed formed Thursday morning east-northeast of the central Bahamas. It is not expected to affect Florida.
As of 5 p.m., the center of the storm is located near latitude 25.8 north, longitude 72.5 west.

Patty is stationary. A turn toward the southwest and a slight increase in forward speed are expected later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. On the forecast track the center of the storm is expected to remain northeast of the central Bahamas until dissipation occurs.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39311
Quoting LargoFl:
..just looking at wilma's pic, had that hit Tampa bay and crossed central florida directly, the damage might have been in the Billions..whew


And if memory serves correctly,
The evacuation for Wilma was terrible and many,many lives would have been lost and forever changed..
The real impact
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Quoting Grothar:


I've only been in one Cat 5. Andrew. That is not something anyone would want to see twice.

(Incidentally, during a Cat.5, you can fit 11 people in one bathtub, trust me)
LMAO..I can just picture that
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39311
137. JRRP
Link
radar of barbados is showing more WNW than NW motion
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Quoting LargoFl:
GRO we have been sooo lucky here huh..impossible to even imagine the destruction of a cat-5 hitting tampa and crossing central florida


I've only been in one Cat 5. Andrew. That is not something anyone would want to see twice.

(Incidentally, during a Cat.5, you can fit 11 people in one bathtub, trust me)
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Quoting CaribBoy:
Yes this is the NAM but ... it's very interesting.

Here is the 18Z RUN.... Link



This have 98L moving NW but the trough lifts out leaving high pressure to rebuild and allow 98L to meander near PR.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39311
Quoting junie1:
looking good seems we might get real wet and windy up here in the northern leewards


I hope all the weather won't stay east and laugh at us.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6240

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.